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The "Keys" System

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tcatanesi
(@tcatanesi)
Posts: 218
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In the early 1980s, professor Allan Lichtman developed, in collaboration with vulcanologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a system for predicting the American presidential election.

The system is so accurate that he has successfully predicted every election since 1984, sometimes without even knowing who the challenging candidate will be.
The Keys have likewise retrospectively fit all previous elections since the modern party system began in 1860.

Logic of the 13 Keys
The Keys are 13 questions stated as propositions favoring the re-election of the incumbent party.
When five or fewer are false the incumbent party wins another term in office.
When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.
The keys balance the significant factors that the American public cares about, ranging from domestic to foreign achievements, from economic competence to trustworthiness.
The individual candidates constitute only two of the thirteen keys, as detailed in the table below.

The 13 Keys

1. Incumbent Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
2. Nomination Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The sitting president is running for re-election.
4. Third Party: There is no major third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-Term Economy: The economy is not in recession during the campaign season
6. Long-Term Economy: Real annual per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms.
7. Policy Change: The incumbent causes major changes in national politics.
8. Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the campaign
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandals.
10. Foreign or Military Failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign or Military Success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger Charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Answer the keys and see what answer you come up with.

[Edited on 8/7/2020 by tcatanesi]

 
Posted : August 7, 2020 12:48 pm
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