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Election odds

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porkchopbob
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@stephen 

would like to see him win just to shut up his haters (not that it would)

His “haters”? Buddy, this isn’t sports. He isn’t Tom Brady getting some opposing fan blowback. He negatively affected peoples’ lives on a large scale just to feed is own ego, all while his family and businesses made a profit. He sent a bunch of yokels to storm our Capitol that directly lead to the deaths of people defending it. He has repeatedly tried to undermine Constitutional Law and national security just to codify his own power and placate our enemies. There are some pretty major issues at stake and you are welcome to disagree, but his critics (including former every former President) aren’t opposing him just because they are butt hurt. He has done some serious damage and some of us would prefer he not do any more.

PorkchopBob Studio

 
Posted : March 15, 2024 5:42 pm
Rusty reacted
Stephen
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Said in a since deleted thread, Trump might offer VP to Pence first

there it is, ignorance - just read a story by The Hill, “Pence won’t endorse Trump for president”

also, I’d never heard of the term “inflection point” re Donald’s upcoming trials (said so at the time)

so yes, I stand guilty of ignorance on those 2 counts, & must mention Kennedy Jr, as well, would never have thought of him as anything but a Democrat

but ignorant altogether? 
howabout this - still say Haley is his best chance to win - LBJ in 1960, then Bush in 80 opposed JFK & Reagan respectively for the nomination

then teamed w/them for the election

realize that was then, this is now/has no bearing on 2024, it’s a completely different work now etc & so forth

but imo it’s within the realm of possibility (Donald/Nikki ticket) - nebish makes good points both pro & con to this notion in the thread

good wknd to all

This post was modified 1 month ago 2 times by Stephen
 
Posted : March 15, 2024 6:53 pm
Stephen
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another xmpl - 

“John Roberts Drops The Hammer On Rogue, Lawless Trump Judges” (Slate label)

just plain didn’t know he had his own rogue lawless judges - hadn’t thought he had that authority as an ex-prez 

they weren’t around for EJ Carroll - she got an $84M settlement for defamation

& i41 agree w/what he was quoted as saying in a different story, also current, Politico label

that it’ll be a bloodbath in Nov if Biden wins 

problem is, it will also be that if he, Trump, wins too

some like me believe battle lines are as deep & bitter in this fight as they were between secessionists & the govt in 1860-61 leading up to the Civil War - neither side would give an inch, & the cannon shot at Ft Sumpter sparked the worst tragedy in this nation’s history

there is no sign that either side will compromise or back down now either in this case of an alleged imposter, Donald Trump, infiltrating America w/plans to ditch democracy for dictatorship 

& those, like myself, who think that is BS

that’s why imo conditions are Ripe for Civil War II

disagree w/Donald’s comment, if accurately quoted, that “Trump Says It’s The End Of Democracy If He Loses 2024 Election” (Reuters) - that’s just campaign bluster

-

NH Voters Sue Biden Deepfake Robocall Creators (NBC)

…..once again, have no idea what any of this means xcpt the lawsuit

so I get why people ignore who repeatedly writes stuff he knows nothing about - I’m doing it as I type😵‍💫 - it’s always w/malice toward none 

 

This post was modified 1 month ago 6 times by Stephen
 
Posted : March 17, 2024 10:33 am
nebish
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The change that makes the most sense to me with the electoral college is have the state electoral votes awarded proportionally to the candidate rather than a winner-take-all approach.  Not sure how that would impact the 270 threshold I assume as it would be harder to get there with candidates splitting votes they now get all of.  Trump got all 18 of Ohio's electoral votes in 2020.  He did win the popular vote here by about 500,000 in rough numbers, but 45% who voted for Biden to 53% for Trump.  Trump should've been awarded 9.54 electoral votes and Biden should've been awarded 8.1 electoral votes.  In California, Biden got all 55 of the electoral votes with 64.5% of the vote.  I'd like it better if he got 34.93 electoral votes and Trump should've got 18.88 rather than all to one. That's the biggest objection I have.  Every vote in every state would then matter when one's vote directly contributes to their candidate's total for election. 2020 Biden voters in Ohio and Trump voters in California should have something to show for their campaigns and efforts towards winning.

 
Posted : March 18, 2024 5:35 pm
Bill_Graham reacted
Bill_Graham
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@nebish too sensible a compromise which means politicians would never go for it.

But my question.would be if you are going to split the electoral votes by % of votes why not just get rid of it completely and the popular vote wins?

 
Posted : March 18, 2024 10:16 pm
PorkchopBob reacted
nebish
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Posted by: @bill_graham

@nebish too sensible a compromise which means politicians would never go for it.

But my question.would be if you are going to split the electoral votes by % of votes why not just get rid of it completely and the popular vote wins?

I go back and forth on that.  I do like tilting the scale a little away from large population centers across the country largely deciding a national election like a pure popular vote would do.  Having the rural fly over states with weight and impact makes sense to me.  It is either one system advantages the smaller less populated states and the other system is favorable to the densely populated regions - both are up for criticism.  So in my head, what makes sense is keeping the electoral college philosophy, but breaking out the percentage of vote received to a percentage of electoral votes awarded.  That would be an interesting study, to go back through the years and see how the votes and outcomes would've maybe been changed if everyone went the proportional route.

 

 
Posted : March 18, 2024 11:06 pm
porkchopbob
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@bill_graham 

Yeah, percentages still rounds someones vote away. People in states with urban areas shouldn't be penalized, and the EC already give more weight to a vote in Wyoming than a vote in California.

Popular vote is fair and uncomplicated, and representational.

PorkchopBob Studio

 
Posted : March 19, 2024 11:14 am
Bill_Graham reacted
porkchopbob
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@nebish 

There are a couple states that occasionally split their electoral votes. I think Vermont is one.

While small states were in favor of the EC in 1787, but one of the big reasons we have an electoral college is because slave states wanted to increase their voting power. That way they could boost the state's population by counting slaves who couldn't even vote. There were no "fly over" states then.

PorkchopBob Studio

 
Posted : March 19, 2024 11:41 am
Rusty
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Some argue that without the EC "big states" (California, New York) elect the president.  With the current primaries situation, a few tiny states (Vermont, Iowa et al) pretty much decide which candidates make it onto the ballot.  There is no practical "balance" at work here.  This is broke.

 
Posted : March 19, 2024 12:23 pm
porkchopbob
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@rusty 

Also, I would love to put RED STATE/BLUE STATE provincialist nonsense to bed. Most states are purple, it's just a way of further dividing people without having to think too hard.

Here in FL, Trump's safe house, I see and hear Republicans moan about New Yorkers "NYing" their state (or other Northeast liberal states). Well, as conservative as FL Republicans might like to think it is here, Rhonda Santis only won the 2018 race 4,076,186-4,043,723. It was incredibly close, especially for a Trump-backed candidate at the time.

Meanwhile NY state has elected Republican governors, and NYC, the capitol of capitalism in this country, has elected several Republican mayors over the past few decades.

But yeah, red and blue is easier to remember.

PorkchopBob Studio

 
Posted : March 19, 2024 12:55 pm
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Bill_Graham
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Posted by: @porkchopbob

@rusty 

Also, I would love to put RED STATE/BLUE STATE provincialist nonsense to bed. Most states are purple, it's just a way of further dividing people without having to think too hard.

Here in FL, Trump's safe house, I see and hear Republicans moan about New Yorkers "NYing" their state (or other Northeast liberal states). Well, as conservative as FL Republicans might like to think it is here, Rhonda Santis only won the 2018 race 4,076,186-4,043,723. It was incredibly close, especially for a Trump-backed candidate at the time.

Meanwhile NY state has elected Republican governors, and NYC, the capitol of capitalism in this country, has elected several Republican mayors over the past few decades.

But yeah, red and blue is easier to remember.

  Massachusetts, where I live, routinely seems to alternate between Democratic and Republican Governors and I would argue we are a hard Blue state.

I will admit though the GOP Governors recently have been centrist Republican's like Baker and Romney and not far right extremists.

Romney only served one term but did get his version of ACA approved for the State and I liked what Baker did when Governor.

 

 

This post was modified 1 month ago 3 times by Bill_Graham
 
Posted : March 19, 2024 5:16 pm
nebish and PorkchopBob reacted
nebish
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I did my normal bit today, acted like I could get a mixed ballot.  In Ohio's primary you get either a Democrat or a Republican ballot.  Never mind if you want to vote for one party say in a state race and the other party in a national race.  Stupid.  I was # 004 with an issues only ballot this afternoon.  Not voting for any of these clowns.

 
Posted : March 19, 2024 9:30 pm
Stephen
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Posted by: @stephen

some like me believe battle lines are as deep & bitter in this fight as they were between secessionists & the govt in 1860-61 leading up to the Civil War - neither side would give an inch, & the cannon shot at Ft Sumpter sparked the worst tragedy in this nation’s history

that’s why imo conditions are Ripe for Civil War II

there are still numerous lawsuits waiting to go to court

….so that, the proverbial “1st shot” of a CW II (God forbid) might come if a lawsuit, or petition, is filed w/the Supreme Court  demanding that someone convicted of laws in open court is legally barred from running for president

if the Supreme Court ruled in favor of that & they shut down the Trump campaign w/an immediate cease-and-desist order

….that could be that 1st shot

or mayb an upheaval at the July convention in Milwaukee, say an unpopular VP choice, which he came up on the short end of

….yes I guess I do see it as sports in a way, ie primaries = regular season, conventions = all star games, electoral college = championship

I didn’t go to college so I’m an electoral ignoramus😵‍💫😉 

🇺🇸good luck & well wishes to fine Americans Joe Biden & Donald Trump

 

This post was modified 1 month ago 4 times by Stephen
This post was modified 4 weeks ago by Stephen
 
Posted : March 20, 2024 5:27 am
Stephen
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Also to RFK Jr - it’s his 1st time in politics, or at least running for office, but mayb the “Camelot” era & his name will stir nostalgic memories, & along with his dynamic VP pick, he could become a dark horse candidate giving the front runners fits as this independent ticket possibly captures the imagination of the public & gathers momentum & media support as the summer goes along 

however

i still believe what I said when he first declared, that Jr’s run won’t amount to much more than his uncle Ted’s did in 1980

he won’t run out of $, we know that much, at least not until a scandal comes calling

 

This post was modified 1 month ago 4 times by Stephen
This post was modified 4 weeks ago by Stephen
 
Posted : March 26, 2024 5:46 pm
nebish
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I’ll be inclined to vote 3rd party for POTUS as I’ve done before (either that or write in ‘none of the above candidates’ or just leave it blank) - although I have no illusions about the end result of any 3rd party entrant. 

I am not that up on Presidential election history but it seems to me this must be the worst two major party choices ever with all known variables and perhaps those unknown. A good 3rd party candidate, like Ross Perot was in the 1990s could maybe, maybe have a real chance in a cycle like this. But RFK Jr and No Labels ain’t it. No wonder why so many have lost interest and faith. 

 
Posted : March 27, 2024 12:41 pm
porkchopbob
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Posted by: @nebish

I am not that up on Presidential election history but it seems to me this must be the worst two major party choices ever with all known variables and perhaps those unknown.

I'm not sure how you quantify that, but that's a pretty subjective blanket statement. I think the Biden administration has been pretty successful and stable, which puts him a good deal ahead of the guy who is trying to sell $60 bibles to pay for his fraud judgements.

 

PorkchopBob Studio

 
Posted : March 27, 2024 1:30 pm
Rusty
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@porkchopbob $60 Bibles and gold sneakers ... there's a song here!  😉

 
Posted : March 27, 2024 5:25 pm
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Stephen
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Doubt sales of $60 Bibles would make a dent in his guilty verdicts - yes he’d have to pray for that outcome, esp with his convictions to EJC & the like - From What I’ve Read - close to 100M & his bank acct likely to be further raped, speaking of rape, by the upcoming hush money trial - which if I understand it right, is aka the Stormy Daniels trial

they’ll getim - ‘in addition to his worsening legal troubles, now he has like financial troubles’

the ol refrain, ‘that one last conviction should getim behind bars, he’s a 3 time loser’ etc

that’s why I’d like to see him bow out now while he can still do so gracefully, on his own terms, w/his supporters in agreement & his health sound 

just to help put an end to hate - right or wrong he attracts it like stink on ****, I’ve never understood it & it rots in the media - who needs it -

worse, it’s toxic & makes people angry - it’s dangerous & could spiral out of control 

you know neither side will take the L sitting down

many complained about the violence of the Jan 6 “insurrection”

friends that would pale indeed compared to what we could be in for 

This post was modified 1 month ago 3 times by Stephen
This post was modified 4 weeks ago by Stephen
 
Posted : March 27, 2024 6:22 pm
nebish
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Posted by: @porkchopbob

Posted by: @nebish

I am not that up on Presidential election history but it seems to me this must be the worst two major party choices ever with all known variables and perhaps those unknown.

I'm not sure how you quantify that, but that's a pretty subjective blanket statement. I think the Biden administration has been pretty successful and stable, which puts him a good deal ahead of the guy who is trying to sell $60 bibles to pay for his fraud judgements.

 

 

The context is looking forward to either of their second terms.  If Biden was younger and if Trump wasn't such an reckless idiot the situation would be different. But it's not, so I say it is the worst two choices ever.  I could be wrong.  What other two were worse?

 

 
Posted : March 28, 2024 12:21 am
Stephen
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They’ve had their ups & downs going all the way back to Tippecanoe & Tyler too - have read that Civil War hero Gen Ulysses S. Grant drank his way thru the presidency, harming Reconstruction efforts at times

Joe & Don are the only 2 candidates, they’re retread candidates & imh & friendly opinion, it’s hard to judge where they fall re the most inept candidates

that no one else is interested in running….could be considered….troublesome 

…..I would call them more overripe than inept - both qualities are equally undesirable for the presidency, but again, there’s no one else

This post was modified 4 weeks ago 2 times by Stephen
 
Posted : March 28, 2024 8:28 am
porkchopbob
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@nebish 

Well, it's still pretty subjective. I'm sure over 250 years of elections there have been plenty of bad tickets - Nixon-Humphrey-Wallce in '68 comes to mind.

I would say it's probably the worst GOP candidate ever, considering it's not even a mystery what kind of President he would make. But Biden just being old doesn't bother me.

But I see your point, it's not very inspiring. It would be nice to see someone emerge that's younger and more even keeled. I think a lot of politicians always planned to sit 2024 out - on one side, to not rock Biden's boat for fear of shooting holes into his candidacy; and on the other side, for fear of offending voters already caught in Trump's snake charmer gaze.

PorkchopBob Studio

 
Posted : March 28, 2024 11:44 am
Stephen
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Again that is difficult for me to compute - the notion that many who could defeat them, instead chose to sit out 2024

that’s just acknowledging Don’s popularity, & that Joe Biden can’t be defeated

Haley, Buttgieg, Vivek, Christie, the others - were defeated, didn’t elect to sit out 

so that, it just shows how weak/hollow/invalid the ongoing anti Trump diatribe is 

it shows me that nearly all Americans - not republicans or democrats, AMERIcans - believe Make America Great Again is an ideal worth pursuing -

some want Trump, some want Biden to lead that effort - it was Trump b4, then Biden, now they meet again

on this Easter Sunday ‘& forward’, citizens should support their candidate w/A Positive Attitude based on diligent informed research, sound data/info, judicious in the media minefield re what/whatnot to believe

….& not w/Hysterical Hypocritical Hogwash - just sayin

This post was modified 4 weeks ago by Stephen
This post was modified 3 days ago by Stephen
 
Posted : March 31, 2024 8:17 am
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