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nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach
Posted by: @hoffcl

 So, who you buying/selling/keeping steady on among the top 10?  

I'd probably sell all of them! You know me, I'm trying to find reasons the good teams lose.  But I'll offer some takes.

Alabama looks the most vulnerable they have been.  Questions with pass D and questions with their running game.  WRs as a unit are down a notch.

Georgia, I guess I would buy as a breakthrough SEC Title season since I think Bama is vulnerable.  I'm actually not that high on JT Daniels, but he is certainly good enough.  Maybe Georgia fans got spoiled by the aerial attack put on display vs UAB.

Oregon is good, but they aren't so good that somebody can't or won't upset them in the conference.  That is one thing the PAC 12 is good at, having a highly ranked team stub their toe somewhere.  I'd be surprised if Oregon doesn't lose to somebody.  It won't be this week, no way, but really any other team save CU and Wazzou could shock them.

Oklahoma, actually their D kind of saved their sluggish O last week.  The O got it done, but was all long drives, no big plays.  A lot of people point to the Tulane game and Tulane got a short field off an INT and did score two TDs to open, but then OU D held them to 36 yards on their final 5 drives of the 1st H.  Up 37-14 Sooners went to sleep in the 2nd H.  Really, take out the Western Carolina game, I'd say the OU D is actually ahead of their O right now.  Not that I'm really impressed with OU either way because I'm not.

Iowa I am selling.  Consider this, the Iowa D has scored 3 TDs and a safety this year...23 pts.  The Iowa O has scored (or drove for FGs) for 68 points in 3 games, that is 22.6 points per game and some of that is debatable as the D set them up for some short field scores.  Iowa did accumulate 400 yards vs Kent St this past week, but in some cut away shots to the sideline when Iowa couldn't pick up some 3rd and shorts, the coaching staff wasn't at all happy.  There is work to do for the Iowa offense unless they are going to turn their opponents over 3 times every game.  Maybe.  The schedule is so soft. 

Penn State I would probably buy although I'm pretty interested in what is happening in the Big Ten East right now.  Maybe this is the year Michigan has some life and Sparty is regaining some of their lost mojo.  Ohio State D has problems.  Can't get pressure, LBs look lost in coverage and DBU has finally dried up after so many defections to the NFL.  They make it sound like it is all Coomb's fault, it's not.  Partially, the players do what they are coached to do so that is part of it, the other part of it is the bodies out there doing it are quite a bit below previous editions.

Texas A&M OL looks pretty bad.  Really curious to see Arky D vs them this week.  I'm not sure Arky has enough at the QB position to win, I hope they do.

Indiana's defense dominated Cincinnati for most of the 1st H last week until Hoosiers' defensive leader was ejected for targeting.  Game changing ejection.  I like Cincinnati, but I'm not sure they are much better than a middle of the pack Big Ten team.  They can play above that level, but then you watch them vs Indiana and you are like "this is supposed to be a darkhorse playoff team".  Darkhorse playoff teams can usually advance the ball beyond their own 40 yard line on at least one of their first 6 possessions.  Cincy didn't do that vs IU.

Cincinnati can beat Notre Dame next week, but mostly because Notre Dame isn't that good either.  Like Texas A&M, they lost a bunch of players on the OL and are having trouble replacing them.  ND will be off the Wisconsin game which figures to be pretty hyped and physical and in comes Cincy.  Good spot for the Bearcats.  Interesting subplot, new ND D-Coordinator was Cincy's DC prior.

Clemson...could this Clemson O score a TD on this Clemson D?  I don't think so.  DJ looks pretty awkward slow and uncomfortable.  Yeah, what if they bench him for the other QB with the long name, does Dr Pepper still want him if he isn't playing?

I hate rankings this early in the season.  Not enough data to rank off of.

You mention Arkansas, that is my kind of team.  Love Pittman and they have a couple really strong coordinators.  That is my favorite team in the SEC.  Pulled several upsets last year and beat Texas this year so you know I like that kind of team.

Ole Miss is definitely a team that others in the league need to get a handle of.  Ole Miss D isn't going to be mistaken for Bama or Georgia yet, but there is improvement, added a couple players and buzz is growing for Corral as a Heisman type season.  Long way to go on that, but him putting up those kind of numbers is the expectation. 

I like all the off the radar type teams.  I watch the games I bet.  I watched more of Alcorn State at South Alabama Saturday than I did Alabama at Florida.  I put a second half wager in on South Bama, was exciting, they won by 1/2 point with a couple late game red zone stands on D.

Big time teams and big time games don't excite me all that much.

You know Major Applewhite is the South Alabama OC and they signed Jake Bentley from the transfer portal.  Having said that, they are a very weak 3-0.  Not as impressive as the week 1 score implied vs USM, trailed and could've lost to Bowling Green and nearly lost to Alcorn. 

Georgia State is a team I was high on in the offseason.  They haven't got out of the gate strong, did get a nice win vs Charlotte Saturday.  In August I actually believed they had a shot at beating Auburn.  Auburn is in a Penn State - LSU sandwich.  I would've liked it if Georgia State was playing better, but they have some pieces.  I take nothing away from Auburn 122-10 scores from weeks 1 and 2.  Tigers looked pretty good at Penn State, still think Georgia State might have a shot.  Lost by 42 at UNC...so there is that.  Every week is a new game however.

 

 

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Topic starter Posted : September 20, 2021 9:03 pm
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach

Back to Clemson, the way their offense is playing, at this point I'd think about anyone who has a good offense in the ACC could knock them off. The D is still nails.  Not sure NC State has what it takes.  Obviously the loss at Miss St takes their perception down, even though Miss St had KO ret TD and NCSt turned it over 3x I think including INT in the EZ, Pack never really had anything going in that game.  So it would appear that Clemson D should be able to shut them down pretty easy.  Not sure how many Clemson scores though.  Looking ahead, Pitt has enough O as does Wake.  Doubtful on LV.  If the Clemson O doesn't come around somebody is going to knock them off.

I'm actually hoping that Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma all suffer multiple losses to get the out of the picture.  If chalk holds serve, put in the winner of UGA-Bama in one playoff spot and get new blood at the other 3 instead of the same old tired teams who aren't playing at a championship level.

That's about all I have to say about the playoff now, in September because so much left to play.  I like going week to week.

Kentucky mailed one in vs Chattanooga last week huh?  It was only 14-10 HT, but really UK dominated them.  Mocs did get an opening game TD drive, but their other 1st H possessions were all 3-and-out.  UK fumbled and et up Mocs for a short field FG.  UK was messing around, but Mocs weren't really in the game in the 1st H.  Then something weird happened.  Chattanooga played a pretty strong 2nd H.  Nothing in the 1st H suggested they could or would.  Levis got a little over hyped.  Even week 1 vs ULM, it was a nice offensive output of course for UK, but some of those balls he throws are just counting on his receiver being better than the DB to get it.  That isn't going to work much in the SEC.  He isn't a tight window back shoulder type thrower.  Definitely an upgrade from what UK has been used to in recent years.  We'll see.

Beamer has the USCe kids playing pretty hard huh?  What were your thoughs of the Georgia-SC game?  The line was huge, UGA didn't cover. 

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Topic starter Posted : September 20, 2021 9:17 pm
hoffcl
(@hoffcl)
Peach Head
Posted by: @nebish

Clemson...could this Clemson O score a TD on this Clemson D? 

Ha!  That's a good one!

Posted by: @nebish

Beamer has the USCe kids playing pretty hard huh?  What were your thoughs of the Georgia-SC game?  The line was huge, UGA didn't cover. 

I've mentioned before that I have a theory about Gamecock football playing for 2 games every year.  Everything else is gravy.  If I'm being transparent here - they should be a decent football team.  Their D-Line is respectable, K Harris led the SEC in rushing last year, their other running back's not bad (UGA wanted him bad), Doty is a serviceable QB & Josh Vann is the best receiver the Dawgs have faced this year.  it's not like we were playing Vandy.  The point being that they already are decent football team.  It's not like he was left with nothing unlike, say, Heupel.  And if anything, Beamer ain't stupid - unlike, say <bleep>.  Did I think they could beat Georgia?   No. Did I think there might be some drama?  Yes.  Was there drama?  No.

So, my thoughts are that Georgia came in and took care of business the way they were supposed to - unlike 2 years ago.  So, Kirbs decides to put in Bennett AFTER we have a four touchdown lead and the refs actually make the right call on that so-called fumble where the UGA RB's knee was actually down and who knows?  We actually get the 3-4 points to cover and my pool picks don't blow up....I really took it on the chin in all of my pools this past week BTW.

But as far as covering is concerned, I might be more concerned about it if I had actually money on the game.  I heard on the radio this AM that Alabama is 9-11 in their last 20 games vs. the spread.  Georgia is less wins - but I don't remember the actual number.  So, being significantly above .500 in covering the spread has absolutely nothing to do with winning championships I guess.

 

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Posted : September 21, 2021 10:49 am
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nebish
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There is so much about analytics these days in sports, the original 100 year old analytic is the point spread.  Outside of handicapping or gambling, the point spread can be used as a means of determining if a team exceeding or under-performing expectations. Taken over a course of time, we get a look into how a team is playing vs how people think they should playing.

Winning vs the spread does not necessarily relate to winning championships.  Style of play, margin of victory do all play into a perception of a team, but perception means little as to who actually wins or loses games.  It is just a measure of how a team is expected to win vs how they actually win.  Alabama actually had a losing record against the spread in 2017 and won the national title (2nd and 26).

Alabama is a special case because they are such a heavy favorite so often and because they often have such large leads in games, the final score doesn't always reflect their dominance relative to the point spread.  Last year Alabama was 9-4 ATS regular and post season and they were even better in their first half performances where they were 10-3 ATS.  That is a first half steam roller (losses vs OM, UGA, ND)  Tide are just 1-2 so far this season both 1st H and full game.  They were -38.5 1st H vs Mercer and only were up 31-0 HT, Saban was probably pissed because he is always pissed about something.  3 games is a small sample, it could be said that so far this season, Alabama is underperforming.

Again in the small sample, South Carolina is a good example of the young season to show how they have performed vs expectations.  South Carolina is 3-0 against the spread.  They have exceeded expectations.  South Carolina after all was expected to be the weakest SEC team above Vanderbilt. Win total 3.5, opened as underdog at ECU 2 weeks ago, closed as a short fav.  Especially considering last year they slumped on a 0-6 SU and ATS streak to close 2020.

Ohio State on the other hand, they are 0-2-1 against the spread this year.  Anyone who has watched Ohio State football can see they are under performing their own standard, and the results against the spread confirms that.

Utah State, my most favorite team of 2021, is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS. A dumpster fire of a team last year made some changes and righted the ship and have far exceeded expectations this season.

So anyway...outside of gambling point spreads are largely meaningless unless we wanted to use it as a way to judge if a team is better or worse than we thought. There are so many more ways that people use analytics now, much more advanced than a simple point spread, which might be a little different on their algorithm programs called "expected margin of victory" by today's stat nerds.  We have things like "success rate", "expected points per yard", and so on.  I don't get into any of that stuff.

I thought some Georgia fans, the ones you talk about complaining about this or about that, might be complaining about "only" beating SC by 27.

Pretty big test for SC this week hosting UK.  Like you say, SC really gets up for Georgia.  This will be a good test for Beamer to see where he has the team at. 

You still live in Tennessee, going to Nashville this week?

 

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Topic starter Posted : September 21, 2021 7:48 pm
Lee
 Lee
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This week's schedule doesn't really excite me at all (I thought last week was great!). Obviously the big game is ND/Wisc at Soldier Field. I was actually supposed to go to that game until my friend screwed me.

But I think this will be interesting. It's cool of course that they are playing in Chicago. A couple of things. Wisconsin is the home team. Well, Notre Dame is a helluva lot close. I would think they would be. That doesn't matter since neither team plays there. I was talking to a buddy of mine from Wisconsin and he didn't understand that. My first thought was maybe they lose a home game at Camp Randall. 

The other thing that struck me is that Wisconsin is favored by 6.5 last I saw. Maybe I am a sucker but I would take ND in a heartbeat. Maybe the oddsmakers are trying to sucker people in. This will basically be a ND home game. 

One last thing about this game is that Cincinnati goes to South Bend next week to play ND. This will be a HUGE game for them if they can go into South Bend and knock them off. They have a bye this week so I guess they can prepare for them so I am looking forward to it.

The only other game I am really looking forward to is of all things, Liberty/Syracuse Friday night. When was the last time a team like Liberty would be favored on the road against a major school. Granted, Syracuse has sucked for a while but still. I want to see if Malik Willis is worth the hype. He gets to perform on national TV.

The last game I am intrigued about is Michigan State/Nebraska. Why is that line only 5? MSU is surprisingly good and Nebraska is of course, bad. Hmm on that one.

You got to go to hell before you get to Heaven.

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Posted : September 22, 2021 10:19 am
nebish
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I believe the line has moved too far in the Wisconsin-Notre Dame game.  I think that the teams are fairly even, just in different ways.  We have seen how the ND OL and DL are below last year's edition, most glaringly the OL.  This is an area that Wisconsin excells and is one of the most important matchups of the game.  But ND has more big play ability and receiving threats than Wisconsin.  Wisconsin lacks explosiveness in the passing game.  So ND can probably commit more defenders to stop UW run while leaving their backend more isolated since they likely won't get beat there.  As bad as the ND OL has been, and it has been downright awful, if ND is able to get rid of the ball quick they can neutralize that.  I think ND is in a tough spot. They have Coan, who has limited mobility, but has an arm.  On the other hand, they have a kid Buchner who they started working into the Toledo game.  That is, or a kid like him, is what this ND team needs who can play behind a bad OL.  I assume Buchner doesn't have the arm or the ability to read the D like Coan has.

The line was 2.5/3 over the summer.  Since then we saw Wisconsin repeatedly shoot themselves in the foot vs Penn State and lose a game they should've won and that is it.  Can't take anything away from the EAstern Mich game.  ND we saw them in a close one at FSU.  Turns out FSU is again a total turd.  Saw ND nearly get beat by Toledo.  Then we saw Toledo get beat by Colorado State who lost to South Dakota St and Vanderbilt of all teams.  So how is that for some transitive property?  ND beat Purdue by 11 last week, but the game was played closer than that for almost the entirety of the game.

So there have been several examples of ND looking bad and people go rushing to bet Wisconsin.  I think at anything near 7, looks like painted 6.5, but could go to 7 as game approaches, I will be on Irish.  It's a game I think either team could win.  Maybe Wisconsin wins more than they lose in multiple matches, but if I think ND could win, the 6.5 is a no brainer and I think we get ND's best.  We will get Wisconsin's best also of course.

Doesn't matter who the home team is or who is closer really.  There will be plenty of ND and UW fans in attendance.  Should be a great atmosphere.

You mention Cincinnati next week, yes, the fact that ND is playing such anticipated and high profile game this week leaves them in a potential let down spot next week.  Cincy is top 10, but also an AAC team.  On the "get up meter", Cincy will no doubt be pegged at 10 for this game.  I wonder where ND's level will be.  They will need to be at their best 2 weeks in a row.  Cincinnati is better than Wisconsin I feel.

 

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Topic starter Posted : September 22, 2021 7:40 pm
nebish
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Nebraska likely earned some good will back last week in a close showing in Norman.  The loss to Illinois was a fluke.  It was a fluke in the sense that Illinois didn't do much to earn the win.  What wasn't a fluke is that Nebraska, as they have all too many times done under Frost, made mistake after mistake after mistake.  At some point that is just who you are, a mistake prone team who doesn't get breaks because the team expects to not have things go their way.  Last week might've been some confidence for them.

Michigan State has been one of the best stories going this season.  An example of the transfer portal rejuvenating a team.  I'm not really sure that a Michigan State A game is better than a Nebraska A game, but chances are we are more likely to get an A game from Michigan State because Nebraska ha so often hurt themselves when it mattered most.  Run game and turnovers have been MSU's key this season.  Nebraska I think can matchup vs the run.  The turnover part, well history tells us Nebraska will fail.  Should be a good game though, it's not like Michigan State has all these better players or something top to bottom, they just have their group executing better than Huskers.

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Topic starter Posted : September 22, 2021 7:48 pm
nebish
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Liberty was -3 at Syracuse last year and Flames outgained them 520-308.  Liberty is pretty much the same team they were last year, just haven't been quite as flashy as last year even though they have a couple big wins and won a tough battle at Troy.  Syracuse is better this year.  Could be 3-0 but have played nobodies.  Liberty playing nobodies doesn't bother me because I know they can play well vs good teams.  Syracuse has not showed that.  Syracuse has shown me some more competitiveness and ability this season, so I'd expect the game to be closer than last year's 38-21 game.  Might be a little more defensive and lower scoring, I'd still assume Liberty wins I suppose.

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Topic starter Posted : September 22, 2021 7:51 pm
nebish
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There were a few group of 5 teams favored at power 5 teams last week.  Nevada was favored at Kansas St (lost), Cincy was favored at Indiana (won) and UCF was favored at Louisville (lost).  Road group of 5 favorites went 1-2 vs their power 5 home dogs.

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Topic starter Posted : September 22, 2021 7:54 pm
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach

Games I am most interested in this weekend:

 

Marshall-AppSt

Wake-Virginia

Liberty-Syracuse

Kentucky-South Carolina

Notre Dame - Wisconsin

San Jose - Western Mich

Texas St - Eastern Mich

Kent St - Maryland

Miami O - Army

Boise - Utah St

Missouri - BC

UNC-GT

Indiana - WKU

Hawaii - New Mexico St

UCLA - Stanford

Oregon St - USC

Kansas St - Okla St

WVU - OU

LSU - Mississippi St

UAB - Tulane

Texas Tech - Texas

UTSA - Memphis

SMU - TCU

Arkansas - Texas A&M

Iowa St - Baylor

Clemson - NC St

Nebraska - Michigan St

Rutgers - Michigan

Georgia St - Auburn

New Mexico - UTEP

Cal - Washington

Villanova - Penn State

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Topic starter Posted : September 22, 2021 7:59 pm
Lee
 Lee
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Universal Peach
Posted by: @nebish

 

Doesn't matter who the home team is or who is closer really.  There will be plenty of ND and UW fans in attendance.  Should be a great atmosphere.

 

I respectfully disagree with that regarding who is closer matters. ND is and I would guess it does matter. I imagine a lot of Wisconsin fans will infiltrate the city (nice for hotels and restaurants 😉) but ND is pretty close and Madison, WI isn't. I imagine I will see a lot of cheeseheads walking around. 

The other thing that just dawned on me is that the Cardinals are at Wrigley. I forgot about that. They are playing 4 games in 3 days. I am going to the Friday night game(makeup) and the Sunday game. Cards fans travel well. The city will be busy! 

You got to go to hell before you get to Heaven.

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Posted : September 23, 2021 10:43 am
oldcoot
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Posted by: @nebish

Nebraska likely earned some good will back last week in a close showing in Norman.  The loss to Illinois was a fluke.  It was a fluke in the sense that Illinois didn't do much to earn the win.  What wasn't a fluke is that Nebraska, as they have all too many times done under Frost, made mistake after mistake after mistake.  At some point that is just who you are, a mistake prone team who doesn't get breaks because the team expects to not have things go their way.  Last week might've been some confidence for them.

Michigan State has been one of the best stories going this season.  An example of the transfer portal rejuvenating a team.  I'm not really sure that a Michigan State A game is better than a Nebraska A game, but chances are we are more likely to get an A game from Michigan State because Nebraska ha so often hurt themselves when it mattered most.  Run game and turnovers have been MSU's key this season.  Nebraska I think can matchup vs the run.  The turnover part, well history tells us Nebraska will fail.  Should be a good game though, it's not like Michigan State has all these better players or something top to bottom, they just have their group executing better than Huskers.

Not really sure what to think about this game. Since Frost has been here they've found ways to lose a lot of close games to teams without as much talent. Special teams have been exceptionally suspect, witness the Illinois game. Frost's teams have struggled to beat anyone on the road. Possible exception Rutgers. He gets out coached regularly. Again from Illinois the Illni came out in a defensive alignment meant to take away Martinez and his scrambles. Did NU adapt? No, Frost admitted after the game that because of the unexpected defensive alignment, they threw out half of their offensive game plan. WHAT???? 

We are very weak on making second half adjustments and this coaching staff seems incapable of addressing that. 

OTOH, Michigan State wasn't highly thought of coming into this year but I give them credit for their fast start. But then again, really how good are either Miami or Northwestern (pummeled by Duke). Home field may be the advantage. I could see the Spartans by a field goal. 

"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." Dean Wormer

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Posted : September 23, 2021 5:48 pm
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oldcoot
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World Class Peach
Posted by: @nebish

Liberty was -3 at Syracuse last year and Flames outgained them 520-308.  Liberty is pretty much the same team they were last year, just haven't been quite as flashy as last year even though they have a couple big wins and won a tough battle at Troy.  Syracuse is better this year.  Could be 3-0 but have played nobodies.  Liberty playing nobodies doesn't bother me because I know they can play well vs good teams.  Syracuse has not showed that.  Syracuse has shown me some more competitiveness and ability this season, so I'd expect the game to be closer than last year's 38-21 game.  Might be a little more defensive and lower scoring, I'd still assume Liberty wins I suppose.

I'm planning on taking 'Cuse +6 and I also like UTSA getting three. 

"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." Dean Wormer

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Posted : September 23, 2021 5:50 pm
oldcoot
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World Class Peach

A little more on the Huskers "special" teams. 

Since Frost's return, our special teams are arguably the worst of Power 5 teams. Their per-game efficiency according to ESPN's Football Power Index ranks us 64th of 65 only ahead of Arizona. 

Football Outsiders hasn't released its full database for 2021 but the Huskers were 64th of 65 from 2018-20, ahead of only Kansas. 

Through four games this year, NU is 120th in punting average, 117th in field goal percentage, 124th in PAT percentage, 112th in punt returns, 116th in kick returns. Pretty awesome, huh?

"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." Dean Wormer

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Posted : September 23, 2021 6:08 pm
nebish liked
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Additionally, on Nebraska, why did receivers Wandale Robinson and JD Spielman transfer out?  I don't know any of the real reasons, just on the surface, losing your top play makers on O is a warning flag because if those guys want to bail there must really be some problems.

 

I am tempted to play Syracuse but am a little afraid of how good Liberty is, last year was, this year I think still is.  Babers finally realized it isn't 2018 anymore and has slowed the pace and is running the ball now.  They used to run like 80-90 plays...when they had a QB who could do it.  So this Syracuse team is the one that the roster is made out for, not a long term winning solution but could keep them in the hunt for a bowl game in typical years.  Just wonder what Baber's end game is because he didn't properly recruit BGSU before he left and it doesn't look like he is stocking the roster in Cuse either. 

But yeah, I think Syracuse will be more competitive this year compared to last, I'd like to get a TD if I were to bet it. Almost seems like Liberty is just kind of going through the motions waiting to turn it on for Ole Miss, and if that is the case they could even wind up losing unexpectedly somewhere. Doubt they are super excited to go play in the Dome again vs a team they dominated last year.  That is a recipe for the team that lost the first game to play better in the rematch.

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Topic starter Posted : September 23, 2021 11:53 pm
Lee
 Lee
(@lee)
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Posted by: @oldcoot

A little more on the Huskers "special" teams. 

Their per-game efficiency according to ESPN's Football Power Index ranks us 64th of 65 only ahead of Arizona. 

 

There are lies, there are damn lies and there are statistics. 

You got to go to hell before you get to Heaven.

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Posted : September 24, 2021 6:31 am
Lee
 Lee
(@lee)
Universal Peach
Posted by: @oldcoot
Posted by: @nebish

Liberty was -3 at Syracuse last year and Flames outgained them 520-308.  Liberty is pretty much the same team they were last year, just haven't been quite as flashy as last year even though they have a couple big wins and won a tough battle at Troy.  Syracuse is better this year.  Could be 3-0 but have played nobodies.  Liberty playing nobodies doesn't bother me because I know they can play well vs good teams.  Syracuse has not showed that.  Syracuse has shown me some more competitiveness and ability this season, so I'd expect the game to be closer than last year's 38-21 game.  Might be a little more defensive and lower scoring, I'd still assume Liberty wins I suppose.

I'm planning on taking 'Cuse +6 and I also like UTSA getting three. 

I'll give you the six for a beer the next time you come to the big city. 😉 

You got to go to hell before you get to Heaven.

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Posted : September 24, 2021 6:33 am
oldcoot
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Posted by: @nebish

Additionally, on Nebraska, why did receivers Wandale Robinson and JD Spielman transfer out?  I don't know any of the real reasons, just on the surface, losing your top play makers on O is a warning flag because if those guys want to bail there must really be some problems.

 

I am tempted to play Syracuse but am a little afraid of how good Liberty is, last year was, this year I think still is.  Babers finally realized it isn't 2018 anymore and has slowed the pace and is running the ball now.  They used to run like 80-90 plays...when they had a QB who could do it.  So this Syracuse team is the one that the roster is made out for, not a long term winning solution but could keep them in the hunt for a bowl game in typical years.  Just wonder what Baber's end game is because he didn't properly recruit BGSU before he left and it doesn't look like he is stocking the roster in Cuse either. 

But yeah, I think Syracuse will be more competitive this year compared to last, I'd like to get a TD if I were to bet it. Almost seems like Liberty is just kind of going through the motions waiting to turn it on for Ole Miss, and if that is the case they could even wind up losing unexpectedly somewhere. Doubt they are super excited to go play in the Dome again vs a team they dominated last year.  That is a recipe for the team that lost the first game to play better in the rematch.

The transfers I think do indicate problems. Some probably reflect the overall program, other players unhappy with what they think their playing time should be etc. McCaffrey fits into the latter. "Portal-ed" to Louisville, less than a week later left there for Rice. Robinson wanted to be close to family in Kentucky. He initially signed with the Huskers, changed his mind to Kentucky because of the family influence but eventually re-pledged to Nebraska. After two years, portal to Kentucky. Spielman I'm just not sure about. Still, when some of your most talented players are consistently bailing, that's not a good trend. 

"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." Dean Wormer

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Posted : September 24, 2021 10:49 am
nebish liked
oldcoot
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neb/Lee you may have talked me off the ledge on Syracuse. Sweaty  

I did grease out on Marshall last night! Those type endings usually hose my wager not help it. I still like UTSA and also Toledo. Leaning toward the Huskers, just once can't they get an unexpected conference road win? I Dont Know  

"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." Dean Wormer

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Posted : September 24, 2021 5:29 pm
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach

I bet my first Ivy League game tonight!  I took Brown.  Also have Charlotte 1st H and Game and UVA.  I will have something on UNLV later.  I'm taking a small bite on Syracuse, I said I think it will be closer and lower scoring than last year.  I don't like the trajectory of Babers and Cuse, but they are showing some fight and playing to their roster right now instead of playing to some ideal in Baber's head.

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Topic starter Posted : September 24, 2021 7:09 pm
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach

I had Marshall ML and ATS last night.  Yeah, got lucky at the end with App St no scoring when Marshall wanted them too, that would've sucked.  I think the right team won the game, but it's not too hard to see how Marshall could've won.  FGs instead of TDs in RZ hurt.  And I think they missed FG also.  App St lost a couple turnovers. 

That fake reverse on the KO return was sweet!

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Topic starter Posted : September 24, 2021 7:13 pm
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach

Brown has a girl QB coach.

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Topic starter Posted : September 24, 2021 7:13 pm
Icepick
(@icepick)
Member

Where is the girl qb on the Brown depth charge? If Brown has a coach for this position are there more players at this position? Has it been determined if this individual is simply identifying as a qb? Most importantly has Joe Biden heard about this girl qb so he can attend and act as if he knows how to flip a coin?

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Posted : September 24, 2021 7:51 pm
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach

https://brownbears.com/sports/football/roster/coaches/heather-marini/5912

 

I don't want this to come out the wrong way, EJ Perry was 1st Tm All Ivy League QB in 2019.  This QB coach got hired in 2020.  Maybe Harvard D is like super good, but EJ Perry looked like a third stringer who had never played out there tonight.

 

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Topic starter Posted : September 25, 2021 12:40 am
oldcoot
(@oldcoot)
World Class Peach
OPosted by: @nebish

https://brownbears.com/sports/football/roster/coaches/heather-marini/5912

 

I don't want this to come out the wrong way, EJ Perry was 1st Tm All Ivy League QB in 2019.  This QB coach got hired in 2020.  Maybe Harvard D is like super good, but EJ Perry looked like a third stringer who had never played out there tonight.

 

Not sure what the final was but saw Harvard up 42-0 at half. Surprised  

Kept a little on Syracuse but affirmed the reference "the less you bet the more you lose when you win." Wink  

Huskers down to +4 with the overs moving up two points. Am pondering N Carolina but that's moved from -12 to -14, will likely end up passing. 

"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." Dean Wormer

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Posted : September 25, 2021 11:47 am
oldcoot
(@oldcoot)
World Class Peach

Hit on Toledo and UTSA. 

Sprinkled a little on NE +4 and Bama -12 first quarter. 

"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." Dean Wormer

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Posted : September 25, 2021 7:13 pm
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach

UTSA was a real nice comeback.  I was on them too.  Like that team a lot.

I lost Georgia State ML on 4th down TD by Auburn 😡

Didn't pay real close attention to Nebraska as I had no action, but saw enough to see them blow another game, coaches blew another game, players blow another game.  Pretty much it is what they do.

Loved all the upsets today.  My kind of day fo sho.  Hopefully we get one more in the Coliseum   tonight - Go Beavs!

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Topic starter Posted : September 26, 2021 12:54 am
oldcoot
(@oldcoot)
World Class Peach
Posted by: @nebish

UTSA was a real nice comeback.  I was on them too.  Like that team a lot.

I lost Georgia State ML on 4th down TD by Auburn 😡

Didn't pay real close attention to Nebraska as I had no action, but saw enough to see them blow another game, coaches blew another game, players blow another game.  Pretty much it is what they do.

Loved all the upsets today.  My kind of day fo sho.  Hopefully we get one more in the Coliseum   tonight - Go Beavs!

First score I saw on UTSA down 21-0 after first quarter, heckuva comeback. Nebraska dominated and still got beat, again the special teams, 65+ yard punt return. The better team didn't win. Rinse, wash and repeat.

 

"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." Dean Wormer

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Posted : September 26, 2021 1:40 am
oldcoot
(@oldcoot)
World Class Peach
Posted by: @lee
Posted by: @oldcoot
Posted by: @nebish

Liberty was -3 at Syracuse last year and Flames outgained them 520-308.  Liberty is pretty much the same team they were last year, just haven't been quite as flashy as last year even though they have a couple big wins and won a tough battle at Troy.  Syracuse is better this year.  Could be 3-0 but have played nobodies.  Liberty playing nobodies doesn't bother me because I know they can play well vs good teams.  Syracuse has not showed that.  Syracuse has shown me some more competitiveness and ability this season, so I'd expect the game to be closer than last year's 38-21 game.  Might be a little more defensive and lower scoring, I'd still assume Liberty wins I suppose.

I'm planning on taking 'Cuse +6 and I also like UTSA getting three. 

I'll give you the six for a beer the next time you come to the big city. 😉 

You owe me a beer.

 

"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." Dean Wormer

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Posted : September 26, 2021 1:46 am
Lee
 Lee
(@lee)
Universal Peach

@oldcoot 

Very clever. Don't accept said offer then tell the person they owe you. I need to find people that will do that! 😉 

You got to go to hell before you get to Heaven.

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Posted : September 26, 2021 7:49 am
oldcoot and nebish liked
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