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nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach

Yeah, it's going to be hard for FSU tonight, but I usually give the dogs a fighting chance.

There is some challenge that comes with trying to find big underdogs that win is so appealing to me, those are pretty much the only bets that matter to me now.  I placed over 50 bets yesterday, but only a handful really meant a lot, it was the moneylines.  I've never been so amped up at 2:30 in the morning last night.  It isn't even the money, it is just the feeling of taking a team that the oddsmakers say have such an impossible chance of winning and then when they do and I'm on it the feeling is way better than I could ever get from betting and winning with Alabama over Miami.  If somebody told me that Alabama would go like 11-1 or something in first half this season (like they did last year, or something like that) I wouldn't bet them.  Betting on what should or is more likely to happen means nothing to me.  Trying to accurately predict what shouldn't happen, the upsets, but does, that gets me going!

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Topic starter Posted : September 5, 2021 7:28 pm
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach

Speaking of Alabama, here is a cool picture from yesterday

 

image
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Topic starter Posted : September 5, 2021 7:31 pm
Rusty liked
Rusty
(@rusty)
Peach Extraordianire

@nebish The Tagovailoa family! 

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Posted : September 5, 2021 8:48 pm
StratDal
(@stratdal)
Peach Extraordianire

It looks like UCLA's colors got Eddie into a bit of a tizzy before the game.  In 2013 when he was coaching SC, the week of the game he called UCLA's players "those boys".  UCLA won that one 35-14.  He might want to find another team to play in the future.

 

Great time at the RB yesterday.  LSU's fans came out in force but the Bruins were a bigger force.  The Bruins dominated the Tigers in the trenches and the game wasn't as close as the score.  Me and some of the others fans in my section were chanting "SEC!  SEC!" at the end of the game.  It's nice to finally see something payoff under CCK.  That said, there is still a lot of football to play.  Fresno State is next.  UCLA hasn't beaten them the last couple of tries.

 

https://clutchpoints.com/lsu-head-coach-ed-orgeron-destroys-hecklers-ahead-of-ucla-game/

Ed Orgeron LSU UCLA
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Posted : September 5, 2021 11:10 pm
nebish liked
hoffcl
(@hoffcl)
Peach Head

Just curious, every single Dr. Pepper I’ve opened since Saturday night has been flat, this happening to anyone else?

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Posted : September 6, 2021 10:48 am
nebish liked
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach

I wonder if South Carolina fans are going to stop drinking Dr Pepper?

Speaking of, I mean, that team from the state under North Carolina...did you see they are an underdog at perennial doormat ECU this week!?

That's a good joke though.

The best NIL reaction I might've heard was when Bo Nix signed the Milos tea endorsement and the backlash and boycott from Alabama fans.  So then Milos does a deal with an Alabama player too.  Got to play both sides of the fence when it comes to the customers.

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Topic starter Posted : September 6, 2021 12:14 pm
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach
Posted by: @rusty

@nebish The Tagovailoa family! 

I thought it was really cool that Tua was able to be there for a big Taulia win.  And then that is Locksley in the middle, Bama OC 2017-18, current Maryland HC.

I saw lots of former players at their schools this week.  I like that.  Otherwise the only time they do it is in season bye weeks.  Love college starting a week before NFL for several reasons.  I like the day after to kind of reflect and soak it all in without the pending NFL slate kicking off.

 

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Topic starter Posted : September 6, 2021 12:17 pm
Rusty liked
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach
Posted by: @stratdal

It looks like UCLA's colors got Eddie into a bit of a tizzy before the game.  In 2013 when he was coaching SC, the week of the game he called UCLA's players "those boys".  UCLA won that one 35-14.  He might want to find another team to play in the future.

 

Great time at the RB yesterday.  LSU's fans came out in force but the Bruins were a bigger force.  The Bruins dominated the Tigers in the trenches and the game wasn't as close as the score.  Me and some of the others fans in my section were chanting "SEC!  SEC!" at the end of the game.  It's nice to finally see something payoff under CCK.  That said, there is still a lot of football to play.  Fresno State is next.  UCLA hasn't beaten them the last couple of tries.

 

https://clutchpoints.com/lsu-head-coach-ed-orgeron-destroys-hecklers-ahead-of-ucla-game/

Ed Orgeron LSU UCLA

 

That is awesome you were able to be back at the games and witness this one in person! 

Fresno is pretty good.  If UCLA can play on the OL and DL like they have been you should be ok.  If Fresno can pass protect though, they will make it a game.  Plus UCLA has not been in this situation often coming down off a big win to refocus for team they should beat the following week.  That is usually a challenge for teams. 

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Topic starter Posted : September 6, 2021 12:20 pm
StratDal liked
oldcoot
(@oldcoot)
World Class Peach

Low hanging fruit action again this week

coastal Carolina -25 1/2 vs Kansas (winner)

Purdue -33 vs UConn    (Winner)

Temple -6 1/2 vs Akron   (Winner)

Boston College -37 vs  UMass    (Loser)

So. Alabama -14 vs Bowling Green (Loser) 

and also

Pitt -3 vs Tennessee         (Winner)

Buffalo +14 1/2 vs Nebraska (Loser)

Washington +7 vs Michigan

"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." Dean Wormer

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Posted : September 10, 2021 9:34 pm
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach

I'm sure I'll have some 40 plays tomorrow.

Tonight I took

Duke 1st H -13

Duke 2nd H -7

Kansas 1st H +16.5

Kansas +26.5

UTEP 1st H +15.5

UTEP +25.5

Utah State 1st H -3.5

Utah State -6.5

 

One of my favorite plays tomorrow is Navy ML

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Topic starter Posted : September 10, 2021 10:28 pm
oldcoot
(@oldcoot)
World Class Peach

I like that Navy play. Go Middies!

"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." Dean Wormer

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Posted : September 10, 2021 11:16 pm
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach

There is some analysis behind Navy, but I am all over it.

-Home team has won 8 straight
-Tai Lavatai started at QB vs Marshall was injured and may not play.
-Xavier Arline is likely starter at QB, he started several games last year including at Army (and played vs AF)
-this game was moved up a month earlier than normal to purposefully play on the 20th anniversary of September 11th

Navy put up 398 yards of offense last week, but only scored 7 points due to 1-for-5 RZ scoring. 398 yards of O is more than all but one of their games from 2020. Mids had a 41-19 TOP edge as well. Navy's gross RY were 385 before factoring sacks, which they were sacked 9x. So while the lopsided loss is reminiscent of how Navy opened 2020, their actual play is quite different (you might remember Navy infamously had no-contact practices leading up to the season opener last year due to covid precautions).

Marshall picked Navy's D apart as the Mids got no pressure on Wells dropping 7-8 in coverage while Wells just found windows to put the ball. That defensive gameplan and that style of offense obvisously won't be on display this week. Navy held Marshall's run game to 101y on 30 attempts.

Air Force blew Navy out in game #3 last year, some of which could be attributed to Navy's lack of physical contact practicing over the summer. TY were 410-241 (6.6-4.5). AF did dominate the game, but the 40-7 score is misleading in that AF tacked on two 4th Q TDs following an INT (38y drive) and SOD (29y drive). Earlier in the game AF also had FG drives of 35 and 12 yards following SOD and fumble. Navy was a better 38% on 3rd down vs AF's 22% (Navy 1-of-3 4th down, AF no 4th down att).

4 of the last 9 games have been upsets. Dog is 5-4 ATS last 9.

 

Was going to add, @DanB...good at joining college, NFL and NASCAR fantasy leagues, bad at actually showing up and playing in them.  What's up?

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Topic starter Posted : September 11, 2021 11:58 am
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach

Lots of good games today.  Too bad I didn't have any fun wins and that Navy loss really stings.

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Topic starter Posted : September 12, 2021 2:21 am
Sang
 Sang
(@sang)
World Class Peach

Didn't take DanB long to miss making his picks ... must be drunk ... didn't make the Thursday game in the NFL pool either, but it didn't hurt much.

 

College with the spread is tough - I'm tempted to add another team that I only pick by coin flip - just to see if I would do better ....

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Posted : September 12, 2021 12:21 pm
Sang
 Sang
(@sang)
World Class Peach

The pool sure seems to take a lot longer than before to update the weekly performance ..... 

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Posted : September 12, 2021 8:20 pm
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach
Posted by: @sang

The pool sure seems to take a lot longer than before to update the weekly performance ..... 

Yeah, I don't know why that was, but it updated this morning.

 

You should create another entry, pick opposite all your initial Sang picks and see what happens. 

 

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Topic starter Posted : September 14, 2021 12:08 am
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach

I'm sure Leafsfan is still enjoying that "facewashing" the Ducks laid on "Ohio".  Quack!  Much bigger things than football he left behind, but I really wish he was here to give us a reaction after that one.  I still think about John Ott when VT has a big win. 

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Topic starter Posted : September 14, 2021 8:06 pm
Sang
 Sang
(@sang)
World Class Peach

It wouldn't let me add a second entry - said I was already a member ... 

I'll keep a separate spreadsheet with my coin toss picks to see if I do better .... 😀 

 

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Posted : September 17, 2021 12:21 pm
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach

Sorry Strat, but that Jake Haener performance is straight legendary.  Love it!

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Topic starter Posted : September 19, 2021 2:31 am
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach
cmgst34
(@cmgst34)
A Peach Supreme

Welp. Pitt loses to Western Michigan. Same old Pitt I guess. What a difference a week makes. My 9 win bet looks like a loss now. 

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Posted : September 19, 2021 6:59 pm
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach
Posted by: @cmgst34

Welp. Pitt loses to Western Michigan. Same old Pitt I guess. What a difference a week makes. My 9 win bet looks like a loss now. 

It could still push.  9-3 is possible, but the defense has to get much much better.  I do short recaps of the games for another site.  Not sure if you watched the game or if you are a Pitt fan or whatever.  Here is what I wrote about the WM-Pitt game.

 

Pitt's only lead of the game was 7-0 in this version of what seems like annual games where they get upset at home. As bad as the Pitt pass D was last week, but Vols QB Milton couldn't connect, this week, the pass D was just as bad and Western Michigan QB Eleby made them pay passing 23-35-337-3-0 with most balls going to Crooms and Moore who combined for 19-285-2TDs. Pitt also couldn't stop the run either allowing WM's top 2 RBs 162y (4.5) while another recurring theme for Pitt was also true, they could not run, Pickett was their leading rusher 10att-49y net. Pitt RBs only rushed 12x for 37! Pickett left the game for a series after he hit the turf hard following a run, a 19y run where he fumbled at the end which allowed WM to go up 14-7 and Broncos never looked back. Pickett kept Pitt in striking distance, but in the 4th Q after Pitt tied it 34-34 the Pitt D couldn't get WM off the field allowing them to convert 3rd down twice to go up 41-34. Pitt converted 4th down, but then were sacked on 4th down and again the Pitt D couldn't keep WM points off the board, the Broncos added a FG to go back up 10 under 6min left. Pitt got within 44-41 but there was no hope Pitt D could possibly get the ball back for their offense, they kicked deep and the Broncos killed the final 3:48 ending at the P17. WM outgained them 517-490 (6-8.4). WM was 7-of-17 3rd down, Pitt was just 1-of-8.

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Topic starter Posted : September 20, 2021 10:09 am
hoffcl
(@hoffcl)
Peach Head
Posted by: @nebish

I wonder if South Carolina fans are going to stop drinking Dr Pepper?

Speaking of, I mean, that team from the state under North Carolina...did you see they are an underdog at perennial doormat ECU this week!?

That's a good joke though.

The best NIL reaction I might've heard was when Bo Nix signed the Milos tea endorsement and the backlash and boycott from Alabama fans.  So then Milos does a deal with an Alabama player too.  Got to play both sides of the fence when it comes to the customers.

 

So, I know this is all a little late....

I didn't watch any of the Clemson/GT game.  Tried too, but, commercials were on every time I switched over.  What happened?  Was GT playing above their heads or Clemson with their heads somewhere else?

Do you foresee anyone pulling their NIL deal w/ a player this season?  Contracts and all, I'm not even sure that can happen.

Interesting how JT can throw for over 300 yards and some UGA fans STILL aren't happy.  Georgia fan, ask you yourself this - when was the last time you saw any of our receivers hit in stride on bombs?  But, along with alot of others, I'm trying to figure out inserting Stetson on that 3rd series.  Even at this point, I have to admit Kirby needs to learn to get out of his own way.  There's a reason I usually go through copious amounts of alcohol while watching UGA 

But unlike many others I have no concerns about the run game...3 backs go for over 50 yards each against SC.  I mean, what's the alternative one back going over 150?  And is tenderized by the end of the year (given our current trend w/ injuries and all).  There's a reason there's only one Nick Chubb.

So, who you buying/selling/keeping steady on among the top 10?  

Alabama-Saban doing Saban things.  Still buying Bama @ #1.  Going into the swamp and up by 18 before seats are warm and then having to hang on to get a "W".  Well it was a road game in a jacked up stadium.  Doing Mullen math - that's worth 4 points.  They've got Ole Miss too - but it's a home game - after a bye week for the fighting Corral's.  This will be the best QB they face all season.  Sorry JT.

Georgia-Still buying of course.  But that schedule sure got more interesting w/ Arky(home), Auburn(road), Kentucky(home) and then Florida.  That is the season right there.  I still think a good passing team can make UGA sweat, as long as they can keep their QB upright.

Oregon-Absolutely still buying.  Even moreso when they shore up that D.  They'll beat UCLA (I think) and got nobody left to challenge them.  

Oklahoma-Selling.  Same story, where's the D?  If Rattler doesn't have it on one of these upcoming games, a mid-season loss could really hurt these guys.  WVU is next and then, look out, K State is 3-0 and it's a road game.  It's possible they could come in and leave the Iowa State game rolling.  We'll see what kind of mojo Big12 Gods have.  I hear they're pissed about the jump to the SEC. 

Iowa-Holding Steady.  Get past Penn State and they don't have anyone else on their schedule.  Well, maybe Wisconsin....maybe

Penn State-Selling.  Iowa & Ohio State road games.  And who knows if they're going to get some ref calls in those games.

Texas A&M-Holding steady.  Let's see what happens w/ Arky this week at Arkansas.

Cincinnati-Holding steady.  At Notre Dame this week.  Winnable, and then who's left on that schedule?  Maybe Fickell to USC noise could be an issue?

Clemson-Buying.  Have to.  When the toughest games left on your schedule are BC and Wake it looks good for the fighting Dr. Peppers.  NC State this week?  They lost to Miss State.  But will they get squeezed out in the end by Iowa and could be jumped by OSU when the Big 10 gods decide to institute their mojo.

Ohio State-Buying. Lose to PSU and they're done.   But can they beat Iowa in the Big10 championship game?  That's they're only shot(s) and I simply don't believe the Big10 gods will let OSU losing anymore happen.

Other comments:

Florida-I have to admit, coming back the way they did vs. Bama was something.  How interesting could UK and LSU games end up being?

Ole Miss-So, alot of folks give Mullen credit for how he handle's in-game calls, but, you really don't see Ole Miss losing because of Kiffin hiccups.  It's really a personnel issue.  I believe if the Bama game ends up being a track meet, the Rebs could win that game.

Arkansas-How can you not like the fighting "yesssssirs"? Except on 10/2 of course. Here's their next 4 games: A&M (neutral site), Georgia(road), Ole Miss(road) & Auburn(home).  Possibility of the wheels coming off...as for me, I hope they go 3 and 1.  But that Bama on the road game is going to be tough.

Iowa State-Have to admit I'd probably be high on them if they had beaten Iowa.  I'd give them a pass on No Illinois as a look ahead.  Can you imagine if they had beaten Iowa how big that game w/ OU on 11/20 is going to be?  Still going to be huge.

Final thought, I used to be a Milo's fan before...not buying it this season.

This post was modified 4 weeks ago by hoffcl
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Posted : September 20, 2021 1:36 pm
cmgst34
(@cmgst34)
A Peach Supreme

@nebish 

 

I am a Pitt fan. And your take is spot-on. They got lucky at TN with the Vols QB overthrowing several times a wide open receiver who would’ve scored a TD on a good pass. If he would’ve connected on any one of those, all of which were early in the game, they would’ve had Pitt down on the mat before the game even really got started. 

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Posted : September 20, 2021 2:09 pm
Lee
 Lee
(@lee)
Universal Peach
Posted by: @cmgst34

Welp. Pitt loses to Western Michigan. Same old Pitt I guess. What a difference a week makes. My 9 win bet looks like a loss now. 

AND they lost to them at home. Wow. I picked WMU, but that was getting 15. Never thought they would beat Pitt.

But hey, I am from Michigan and we will never, ever live down the App State game. I almost got into two fights that night because of a stupid college football game. 🙄 

You got to go to hell before you get to Heaven.

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Posted : September 20, 2021 4:32 pm
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach

Alright!  We got a little CFB talk going on the ABB WP!

 

I had Western Michigan on the ML list this week but it didn't make the cut.  I took LaTech (oh my god that game), Utah State and Southern Miss.  So won one after going winless on ML plays the previous week.  Utah State is my favorite team right now, 3-0 with two upsets on the road both which I money lined and win over a tough FCS North Dakota team (not State, the other one) where they covered the game and 2nd H number.  Big Utah State fan right now, they host Boise this week!

 

This might sound funny @Lee, but I remember posting back in 2007 here after the App State game.  Myself and a few others were relishing the upset and you posted I think after the next week loss to Oregon about "why all the Michigan bashing".  There is nothing that I love more than seeing the top teams take it on the chin, get humbled and lose to teams they aren't supposed to.  For full context, that App St team was a hell of a team, on their way to their third straight FCS/IAA National Championship.  It's not like Michigan lost to Albany or something like that.  Still seeing a team that had just played a #1 vs #2 game in the Shoe last game of 2006 lose at home to an App St team most people had no idea who they were still ranks to me as one of the great upsets, even though there are bigger upsets and more surprising upsets in terms of point spreads and who the teams are.  For instance, I feel Stanford beating USC as a 41 point underdog is a bigger upset because Harbaugh hadn't yet built that Stanford team up and USC was still at the top. 

 

Good times up there in the Mitten state Lee!  Go Green - Go White is 3-0 and has some nice momentum (night game vs Huskers this week) and Go Blue a dominating 3-0 (Rutgers at home this week, nearly lost in OT to Rutgers last year!).  Plus you got Eastern and Western winning.  Did you see that Central had to fly to LSU the day of game and fly home after because there were no hotels for them to stay at?  Pretty rare for a team to fly that far the morning of a game.  LSU beat up on them which kinda surprised me I though Chips would hang a little better.  Maybe travel influenced it. 

 

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Topic starter Posted : September 20, 2021 5:37 pm
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach
Posted by: @cmgst34

@nebish 

 

I am a Pitt fan. And your take is spot-on. They got lucky at TN with the Vols QB overthrowing several times a wide open receiver who would’ve scored a TD on a good pass. If he would’ve connected on any one of those, all of which were early in the game, they would’ve had Pitt down on the mat before the game even really got started. 

Yeah, it took Pitt a while to settle in and take control of that one.  Milton is a poor QB, would've been more interesting had Hooker QB'd the entire game for Vols. 

Friend of mine is a Pitt grad, probably early 2000s he was there.

When I do win totals I look at the schedule in 1/3s or 1/4s because I really don't like picking the individual wins and losses, it's too hard.  Upsets happen and stuff.  So the next 1/4 of the schedule I'd say Pitt could go 3-0, but 2-1 is more likely (splitting GT/VT).  Clemson is looking pretty vulnerable at the moment, at least offensively and while Clemson is still elite on defense, Pitt might just have enough behind Pickett to get that one.  I'd still have to say they go 2-1 in that stretch.  And then the final leg, again, probably 2-1.  That all equals 4 losses with WMich.  If we combined the final 6 games, absolute best case would be 5-1 coupled with the next 3 being 2-1 would give 7-2....Or maybe they go 3-0 over the next 3 and then 6-2 over the final 6.  Either way that puts them 9-3 for the year and maybe you push your RSW total.  Fairly optimistic still considering what we just saw Saturday.

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Topic starter Posted : September 20, 2021 5:47 pm
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach

I'm going to have to weigh in on hoffcl's post after dinner. 

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Topic starter Posted : September 20, 2021 5:50 pm
Lee
 Lee
(@lee)
Universal Peach

@nebish 

I was at the watering hole watching football all day Saturday and I said if MSU knocks off Miami they are going to be ranked. They killed them. I thought they would just sneak in at 24 or 25, I didn't think they'd be ranked as high as they are. 

Regarding Michigan, I guess I am a pessimist. Their running game is ridiculously good. But can they throw the ball? They are going to have to. And they get another easy one at home this week, Rutgers. But after that? 

This post was modified 4 weeks ago by Lee

You got to go to hell before you get to Heaven.

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Posted : September 20, 2021 7:14 pm
nebish
(@nebish)
World Class Peach

I was surprised that Michigan didn't work on the passing game more last week.  They ran like 48x and their starting QB only attempted 11 passes before being relieved.  Michigan scored on 9 straight possessions.  We all know they are very good right now running the ball.  I guess they feel comfortable and don't want to put additional film out there or something.  That was a complaint vs Washington that they didn't do more through the air. UW is struggling but does have some strong DBs; supposed they felt the best way was just to run run run.  Question is going to be in conference play like you said, can they win by air (like Neil Armstrong) and by ground (like George Patton).  I love Harbaugh for quotes like that.

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Topic starter Posted : September 20, 2021 8:23 pm
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