Adding more mystery to intent behind the curtain at the Fed, raising interest rates now just so they can lower them later when necessary. I haven't heard that one Sang, but could be a valid point.
The threat of inflation is always there in a growing economy. Impacts from tariffs are just one component, admittedly avoidable. No need for me to go into another defense of their use on principle here I don't think. I would say that when people are buying more 'stuff' and companies are producing more 'stuff' for the higher demand in a growing economy prices for raw and finished materials can go up absent of tariffs. Tariffs can escalate that, but too many people I hear are failing to acknowledge there are other reasons for prices to rise, tariffs are simply not the only reason even though that is the only reason most point to lately. It is like saying that gas and diesel prices are higher because of increased state taxes. There are other variables that effect those prices outside of taxes, just as there are other variables that effect other product prices including steel and aluminum.
When my advisors have always told me to be more aggressive because "you have to beat inflation", as I often do, I take a different view. Yes inflation is an invisible force that lowers the value of our dollar, however we control our spending. In terms of fuel, we can drive less, we can car pool, we can invest in more fuel efficient autos. We can use less energy in our homes, we can invest in more efficient appliances. We can change our food buying habits and possibly grow some of our own food. As producers and sellers pass on their higher costs, we can defer some purchases making existing goods last longer and therefor getting more value out of them. So as prices go up due to inflation, or whatever else, we can control to a point how much we spend, when we spend and what we spend it on and what that means for our ultimate purchasing power.
My brokers have always said "unless you are getting 3% return you are losing". Sure I want more than 3% return on my munis or stocks, but I also just opened a 19 month 2.7% CD for some close to home safe money. If rates are higher in 19 months I might roll that over for another term. Everyone has to figure out their own deal. I like figuring out my own thing instead of following guidance more often than not. If I fail on my own accord I can live with that. If I fail listening to somebody else's advise I can't handle that.
[Edited on 7/31/2018 by nebish]
"Stealth" ? Maybe kind of stealth for gas, but food prices are an outright kick in the teeth, climbing every week.
Yeah, Kroger has hit me in the wallet here lately. A lot of this is due to the ELD mandate and trucker shortage we are going through right now, and its only going to get worse through Christmas. Trucks that cost me $4600 last month to get to KY from Long Beach are costing me $6000 this month. Craziness.
Also, the ELD has hurt the "new home" market as building materials and lumber are outrageous due to trucking costs.
When my advisors have always told me to be more aggressive because "you have to beat inflation", as I often do, I take a different view. Yes inflation is an invisible force that lowers the value of our dollar, however we control our spending. In terms of fuel, we can drive less, we can car pool, we can invest in more fuel efficient autos. We can use less energy in our homes, we can invest in more efficient appliances. We can change our food buying habits and possibly grow some of our own food. As producers and sellers pass on their higher costs, we can defer some purchases making existing goods last longer and therefor getting more value out of them. So as prices go up due to inflation, or whatever else, we can control to a point how much we spend, when we spend and what we spend it on and what that means for our ultimate purchasing power.
[Edited on 7/31/2018 by nebish]
You are completely correct here. In reality most people forget this advise and borrow the difference.
Could his politics have anything to do with it? Great orator and that is it, nothing, zip, nada to do with the color of his skin.
"Exchanging" ideas with you has proven to be an exercise in futility. This will be proven soon as your need to get the last word in will overcome any sensible rebuttal to the "thought" you've so graciously shared here.
“Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views.”
- William F. Buckley
I found this post below to be fascinating, so I thought I’d break it down and provide my feedback.
I will exchange ideas and thought with anyone at anytime, until it becomes argumentative.
Notice he doesn’t mention what types of ideas and thoughts, just that he will exchange them. In my case in this thread, he exchanged his idea and thought that my post was pathetic.
“until it gets argumentative”.....again, no mention of who initiated the argument or who even decides that it is an argument, leaving it open ended. He isn’t saying who caused it, just that it is now an argument.
One should be able to share a thought and hear an opposing view. If you disagree, you should be able to depart, knowing you've made the attempt
Made the attempt at what? He doesn’t say. It’s vague, maybe intentionally. In our exchange, he departed, but only attempted to call it pathetic before saying he is departing. This leads me to believe he was referring to himself when he wrote this post....he should’ve been able to make a civil “attempt” at discussion, but alas, he got flustered and departed.
Seeing and hearing frustration because you will not continue to engage when there is no possibility in your mind of finding common ground is the red flag that tells me the attempt at conversation has come to an end.
Here he is warning everyone. He wouldn’t continue to engage with me, because there was no possibility for him to find common ground with my opinion about race. He noticed his own red flag, and recognized the conversation should end, and so he departed.
It's OK to just, walk away.
Yes it is brotha, yes it is. Took me a while to understand, but I think I get it now.
Reading back through the thread I thought Bhawk mentioned something I have not thought about, the housing market related to baby boomers and when those homes will be coming on the market. More homes on the market, more competition, definitely creates downward pressure on listing and sales prices.
The oldest boomers, ones that I know, have already moved and downsized into condo type places, while others still are in their life-long home and then the younger ones just entering retirement or on the cusp and haven't made that move yet. Wondering what somebody from the industry might think about this? I have a realtor friend, will have to ask next time I see him.
It seems at one time the stories read that millennials were not interested in home ownership, although as time has gone on, the great recession is further behind us and they get older some of that is changing.
Some say 70%+ of employment costs are comprised of wages and beneifts.
U.S. Employment Costs Increase From Year Ago by Most Since 2008
By Sho Chandra
July 31, 2018, 8:30 AM EDTU.S. employment costs accelerated in the second quarter from a year ago by the most in this expansion on faster growth in worker pay and benefits, according to Labor Department data released Tuesday.
Highlights of Employment Cost Index (2Q)
Employment cost index rose 2.8% y/y, the most since 3q 2008, after 2.7% gain
ECI climbed 0.6% m/m (est. 0.7%) after 0.8% increase
Wages and salaries rose 2.8% y/y, also the biggest gain since 3q 2008; benefits costs jumped 2.9% y/y, most since 4q 2011
Private-sector wages and salaries advanced 2.9% y/y for a second quarter
Key Takeaways
The latest results indicate employers are offering better compensation packages to workers amid an ongoing shortage of qualified workers. In another sign of broad-based demand for labor, the ECI showed increases in manufacturing, construction and service-related industries.
While labor costs are rising, there are few signs that they'll trigger heightened inflation pressures. Economists expect the Federal Reserve will still raise interest rates gradually this year.
The government’s quarterly read on the ECI -- covering employer- paid taxes such as Social Security and Medicare in addition to the cost of wages and benefits -- offers a comprehensive look at how American workers are being compensated.
Average hourly earnings, a separate monthly measure of private- sector wages that can be influenced by shifts in industry employment and hours worked, have been rising moderately in this expansion relative to the strength of the job market.
Other Details
Employment costs for manufacturers rose 2.9 percent from a year ago; construction up 3 percent and private service providers up 2.9 percent
Benefit costs in private industry rose 2.8 percent from second quarter of 2017, after increasing 2.5 percent
Employers costs for health benefits increased 1.6 percent from a year earlier
— With assistance by Chris Middleton
The economy has been on a steady incline since 2009, period. Great job by Obama to turn around the disaster created by the Republican administration of W Bush, who bankrupted the country. Not only did Obama reverse course on Bush’s stumbling mess, but he turned it around all while being sabotaged along the way by white people who melted down over a half black President. Trump is just riding Obama’s wave, as usual. Trump has even admitted this....I’ve heard a dozen separate instances of Trump justifying his policies by saying, “Obama did the same thing when he was in office”. I think the President has a man crush on Obama. It’s funny to watch Trump and Putin tremble like b*tches at the mere mention of Obama’s name, let alone seeing him face to face. Ever see the photos of both Trump and Putin looking down in shame as they shake Obama’s hand, while Obama stares them down right to their face? Priceless!
[Edited on 7/31/2018 by BoytonBrother]
Reading back through the thread I thought Bhawk mentioned something I have not thought about, the housing market related to baby boomers and when those homes will be coming on the market. More homes on the market, more competition, definitely creates downward pressure on listing and sales prices.
The oldest boomers, ones that I know, have already moved and downsized into condo type places, while others still are in their life-long home and then the younger ones just entering retirement or on the cusp and haven't made that move yet. Wondering what somebody from the industry might think about this? I have a realtor friend, will have to ask next time I see him.
It seems at one time the stories read that millennials were not interested in home ownership, although as time has gone on, the great recession is further behind us and they get older some of that is changing.
A supply of available homes here in Central KY is non-existent while the demand is booming. As for the whole "baby boomer sell off", the industry did expect this to happen over the last half-decade or so but unfortunately it never transpired. Boomer's are actually now considered the least likely age group to sell their homes. Where I live there are very few "buildable" lots left but unfortunately construction costs are through the roof and with down payment requirements, etc. many millennials are still being forced to rent.
My brokers have always said "unless you are getting 3% return you are losing". Sure I want more than 3% return on my munis or stocks, but I also just opened a 19 month 2.7% CD for some close to home safe money. If rates are higher in 19 months I might roll that over for another term. Everyone has to figure out their own deal. I like figuring out my own thing instead of following guidance more often than not. If I fail on my own accord I can live with that. If I fail listening to somebody else's advise I can't handle that.
Good for you. With all the volatility, my guys have been suggesting only going out 6 months at a time instead of locking in for a longer period. Mostly because I am investing instead of needing it to live, I have been doing that. Just got a 6 month cd for 2% - with the hope that in 6 months the rate will be higher.
My brokers have always said "unless you are getting 3% return you are losing". Sure I want more than 3% return on my munis or stocks, but I also just opened a 19 month 2.7% CD for some close to home safe money. If rates are higher in 19 months I might roll that over for another term. Everyone has to figure out their own deal. I like figuring out my own thing instead of following guidance more often than not. If I fail on my own accord I can live with that. If I fail listening to somebody else's advise I can't handle that.
Good for you. With all the volatility, my guys have been suggesting only going out 6 months at a time instead of locking in for a longer period. Mostly because I am investing instead of needing it to live, I have been doing that. Just got a 6 month cd for 2% - with the hope that in 6 months the rate will be higher.
Sang - Exactly the right strategy. With the Fed expected to increase rates several more times, if one is purchasing CD's, the prudent strategy is short term with expectations to roll over into a higher rate upon maturity.
Sadly, some still believe this uptick is due to the Owe-bama and Pelosi dynamic duo, Regulation and Taxes.
Sadly, some still believe this uptick is due to the Owe-bama and Pelosi dynamic duo, Regulation and Taxes.
“Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views.”
- William F. Buckley
Sadly, some still believe this uptick is due to the Owe-bama and Pelosi dynamic duo, Regulation and Taxes.
And sadly some still believe this uptick is due to the president.
Steady incline since 2009. Great job Obama.
[Edited on 8/2/2018 by BoytonBrother]
Steady incline since 2009. Great job Obama.
[Edited on 8/2/2018 by BoytonBrother]
It took until July 2017 for the U.S. economy to recover from Obama's failures predominately due to President Trump's leadership and policies and trust that the American people have in him.
You also forgot to throw the usual race-baiting political crap typical on those who cannot articulate a logical, fact-based argument.
Economy has steadily iimproved overall since 2009 - Great job Obama.
Economy has steadily iimproved overall since 2009 - Great job Obama.
Easy to regurgitate left-wing talking points when you have no facts to back up your claim.
If you need facts to back-up facts for some reason, have at it. Truth hurts I guess.
If you need facts to back-up facts for some reason, have at it. Truth hurts I guess.
Let us know if you ever come across a fact.
So far, nothing.
Top 5 reasons Trump’s growing economy is strong and sustainable
August 3, 2018
The U.S. economy soared to unbeatable levels in the second quarter — the fastest in nearly a decade.
The giant uptick was driven by President Donald Trump’s massive tax reform and the president is hopeful that the growing economy will continue to accelerate under his leadership.
Never-Trumpers and anti-Trump economists are claiming this growth will not be sustainable, but we have the top five reasons why they are completely wrong.
Here are 5 Reasons why Trump’s economy will continue to grow —
#1
Income and consumer spending are boomimg — and according to the Commerce Department, consumer spending rose for the fourth consecutive time in June. May and June also posted 4% increases in income, respectively.
#2
Despite aggressive trade policies and the threat of a tariff war, business investments are up and could max out at a rise of 7%. The increase in business investments can be directly attributed to the decrease in the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. The significant increase in profits gives businesses plenty of reason to reinvest to become more competitive in the marketplace.
#3
The unemployment rate is down to 3.9%, the lowest in twenty years. The lower unemployment rate is part of an ongoing trend due to Trump Administration economic policies. As the Federal Reserve noted in an August 1st press release, “Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low.”
#4
According to a July 31st report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the personal saving rate rose 3.3% to 6.7% in 2017. Higher levels of savings among consumers means faster growth, more investments, and a stronger economy.
#5
The rolling back of regulations removes government from the private sector. Obamacare is a prime example, as healthcare is nearly 20% of the US Economy. Everytime a regulation is rolled back, this returns those funds back to the private sector, and fuels and strengthens the economy.
The anti-Trump so-called economists are wrong again.
Liberals should be terrified of the next GDP report… which comes out 11 days before November midterms.
It is possible the robust Trump economy will look even better, and the Democrats’ dreams of gaining back control of Congress are dashed, once again!
I guess that's great if you ignore the trillions added to the debt (much more than was predicted) and the fact that consumers are now over $1 trillion in debt on credit cards, etc. But you're right, it is rosy for the top 1%!
Let us know if you ever come across a fact.
Fact: Overall economy has been on a steady incline since 2009. What don't you understand?
I bet those folks at Carrier are having an easier time finding new jobs .
I bet those folks at Carrier are having an easier time finding new jobs .
You would lose that bet as their are few jobs in that area.
The facts of President Trump's huge success in leadership and policy is undeniable.
Notice that the far-left extremists can't handle the truth?
Reading back through the thread I thought Bhawk mentioned something I have not thought about, the housing market related to baby boomers and when those homes will be coming on the market. More homes on the market, more competition, definitely creates downward pressure on listing and sales prices.
The oldest boomers, ones that I know, have already moved and downsized into condo type places, while others still are in their life-long home and then the younger ones just entering retirement or on the cusp and haven't made that move yet. Wondering what somebody from the industry might think about this? I have a realtor friend, will have to ask next time I see him.
It seems at one time the stories read that millennials were not interested in home ownership, although as time has gone on, the great recession is further behind us and they get older some of that is changing.
A supply of available homes here in Central KY is non-existent while the demand is booming. As for the whole "baby boomer sell off", the industry did expect this to happen over the last half-decade or so but unfortunately it never transpired. Boomer's are actually now considered the least likely age group to sell their homes. Where I live there are very few "buildable" lots left but unfortunately construction costs are through the roof and with down payment requirements, etc. many millennials are still being forced to rent.
Never transpired? Boomers go up to born in 1964, 54 years ago. 10,000 people hit retirement age a day. Ten more years of that is on the horizon. Far from over.
Thinking about CDs, a few friends and I had been discussing them, it is funny because now that you can get 2-3% relatively short term CD rate people are thinking about them again. Some of you are older than me I think, but I recall my grandparents giving me long term CDs as a young child with double digit yields. But when yields have been below 1% for so long recently it looks attractive now.
Through the years I have actually been selling most of my mutual funds and buying more municipal bonds, you know me something about me not wanting to invest in multi-national corporations and all, I'd rather invest in communities over corporations mostly. Selling like 1% a month for a while, feels better selling into a growing market than a receding one! I still buy stocks, mostly REITS or energy or domestic service sector related companies. But look out, CDs are on the way back haha! Not quite, but another option for a change.
I wonder what rising rates will do to munis? They will hit dividend stocks for sure. I miss the old EE savings bonds. Like CDs the yield went to dust.
CDs. municipals and savings bonds?
The world has evolved past poor investing ideology.
