I thought this was an interesting discussion:
One thing that’s stood out to me is Trump’s lost points among voters who don’t like either candidate running. In 2016, Trump won these voters by a large margin, but here in 2020, they’re breaking overwhelmingly for Biden.
That is an interesting statement.
Of course, one point in Trump’s favor is that there’s little evidence that Biden has made progress in winning back the white voters without a college degree who supported Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016.
What will Bernie's supporters do.
I'm on the Bernie email lists. Subject matter often pertains to how they (the new progressives) are going to influence the party and issues. Here is one quote from a recent email:
"Recently, Our Revolution activists in Wisconsin, Nebraska, Massachusetts, and California played an important role in securing the recent deal struck with the Biden campaign that will allow more progressive influence over the Democratic Party rules and policy platform."
I kinda just wish Biden could stand on his own, but you could see him bending Bernie's way when they still had the last debate. Bernie laughs that all his opponents do that to him. Guess that is a win for Bernie's cause though.
Will Biden be a zombie President that just gets filled with and pushed and pulled where certain party interests want him as opposed to standing and pushing for his principles. His principles now might just become everyone else's principles who influence him. Suppose the left won't mind that though.
I think he loses.
Still Friday May 1st Gallup had Trump hitting an all-time high of 49%.
And the CNN Battleground state poll:
(CNN)Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden's lead over President Donald Trump now stands at five points, but Trump has an edge in the critical battleground states that could decide the electoral college, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
In the new poll, 51% of registered voters nationwide back Biden, while 46% say they prefer Trump, while in the battlegrounds, 52% favor Trump and 45% Biden.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/politics/cnn-poll-2020/index.html
I think it's far too early to predict anything. Trump's opponent isn't Biden, it's COVID-19 & no one knows where that's going. The fact that it is in the WH is telling. I don't trust any further info from the WH re staffers' test results or illness - any new cases will be that the staffer was working from home whether that's true or not.
The big question for me re opening is will people actually go out? Yes, businesses will be allowed to re-open, but 1) will they? 2) will people patronize re-opened businesses or continue to stay home? 3) what happens to the curve?
And, what will be discovered about children? Previously thought to be untouched, kids are now not only getting infected but the symptoms are unusual. Kids have died. Even if local school districts re-open schools in later in the fall, are parents going to send their kids back? Are teachers going to return?
The course of COVID19 over the summer is more meaningful to me than polls.
I think he loses.
Still Friday May 1st Gallup had Trump hitting an all-time high of 49%.
And the CNN Battleground state poll:
(CNN)Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden's lead over President Donald Trump now stands at five points, but Trump has an edge in the critical battleground states that could decide the electoral college, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
In the new poll, 51% of registered voters nationwide back Biden, while 46% say they prefer Trump, while in the battlegrounds, 52% favor Trump and 45% Biden.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/politics/cnn-poll-2020/index.html
Here is a link to almost every relevant poll. Looks like Biden is winning most of the swing states to me:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
The same Polls that Hillary winning in a Landslide?
The same Polls that Hillary winning in a Landslide?
Read the discussion on the link. The polls never said Hillary would win in a landslide. They were off in 3 key states. Nationally the polls said Hillary would win the popular vote by 2% and she did. As I have said over and over, the national polls don't mean much, and the only thing that matters is a few key swing states. But again, I suggest you read the discussion and then I would love to hear your input.
As I have said over and over, the national polls don't mean much
Yet the link you posted mentions polls dozens of times
As I have said over and over, the national polls don't mean much
Yet the link you posted mentions polls dozens of times
Of course it does, because it is a discussion trying to make sense of the available data.
Yet another thread dragging HC in. She's history. Not the same race this time around with completely different variables.
Anybody still want believe HC will either be the nominee or VP candidate? If so, enter the Charity Challenge. For anybody who has already taken the bet, want to add more to your bet? I'll lay 2:1 odds on the any incremental bets. Think about it, if you add to your bet for every $100, and if you win, you get $200.
[Edited on 5/15/2020 by MartinD28]
The same Polls that Hillary winning in a Landslide?
No polls from 2016 should be compared to 2020. We live in the present. Past polls have been wrong. Some have been corrected, fine-tuned, & re-examined. The accuracy of the current polls won't be known until November - in hindsight. Polls mostly tell candidates where to spend money. They're really not useful to voters.
And FFS, no one wants to hear about HRC - not those who despise her nor those who voted for her. She's a non-entity in the 2020 race.
It's still early.
This time in 92 I don't think anyone thought Clinton would win. Probably same for 96, and the same for 2012 with Obama.
Trump and the GOP are going to try and continue to restrict voting and prevent turnout.
and of course Trump continues to create "facts" out of thin air, though I think the only people that believe him will vote for him no matter what
It's still early.
Completely agree.
I don't think the course of COVID19 can be underestimated - especially if there is a resurgence in the fall & voting is not conducted by in-person ballots at monitored precincts.
It's still early.
Completely agree.
I don't think the course of COVID19 can be underestimated - especially if there is a resurgence in the fall & voting is not conducted by in-person ballots at monitored precincts.
Correct.
Covid is more than a wild card. It can impact voter turnout or how successful or repressive vote by mail is. Also Covid will play a role in how a % of voters look at how Trump did or didn't lead or respond. Finally, the state of the pandemic, cases, deaths, and economy as we move into November will drive some voters.
Granted - many people have already made up their mind, but I suspect that Covid variables are enough to be a tilting point.
and of course Trump continues to create "facts" out of thin air, though I think the only people that believe him will vote for him no matter what
Yeah, over the past 3.5 years Trump's approval ratings have been remarkably steady. His fans love him no matter what he does, and they will show up and vote for him no matter what. Trump haters aren't going to vote for him no matter what, although if they stay home or vote for a 3rd party candidate it will boost Trump's chances immensely (a defacto vote for Trump).
The only wildcard is what happens in the super close swing states where a hundred votes one way or the other could change everything. Instead of spending money on TV ads, I'm surprised super rich people don't buy a second home in Florida and change residency for the election (like Trump did).
His fans love him no matter what he does...
"Trump's business partner in Indonesia exhumed graves in West Java to build resort"
"The remains of four of his relatives - two siblings, his great-grandfather and another relative - had been pulled from the ground without his consent, he and others in the community said, along with the bodies of Iyum's two girls. They had dug up the wrong people."
"Trump's foreign partners often lacked a reliable track record of real estate success. Some have faced allegations of corruption."
NO WAY, REALLY??
His support base will vote for him no matter what he does. Some people hate the democrats so bad it doesn't matter what he says or does. It's ad that our population is so easily conned.
Like our cry baby president, his supporters would rather be with Russia than the democrats in the USA.
The dumbing down of America,
Yet another thread dragging HC in.
Too funny. Tell me how that is any different than you and your little cabal finding a way to bring your hatred for President Trump into every political thread, regardless of the thread title?
Hillary is so more lucid than Joe. If Hillary is in the past what is Joe Biden? The ghost of liberals past?
Hillary is so more lucid than Joe. If Hillary is in the past what is Joe Biden? The ghost of liberals past?
What is Joe Biden? He is the Democratic nominee. Paint him however you like to try to get your boy elected. I'm sure Trump will try to project Biden as the devil, so you might as well start as well.
Well, certainly a lot of folks have bought in and completely thrown in with and completely sold their soul to The Trumpster Ideology??? Here is my personal touch for the day, being a long time Hoosier, sending some Hoosier pride......Peace
https://www.newsbreakapp.com/n/0P2n4ErN?s=a99&pd=05JiOiuk
Well, certainly a lot of folks have bought in and completely thrown in with and completely sold their soul to The Trumpster Ideology???
How is this any different than those who've "bought in and completely thrown in with and completely 'sold their souls'" to the Liberal ideology?
Maybe it's just me, but I thought America and the Constitution are about:
3 branches of government with separation of powers and checks and balances. The president is chief executive, not a monarch, and not above the law.
An independent and free press
speech cannot be suppressed by the federal government
among other things
not to mention humanity, empathy, and honesty.
I don't see any of that coming from the white house.
Well, certainly a lot of folks have bought in and completely thrown in with and completely sold their soul to The Trumpster Ideology???
How is this any different than those who've "bought in and completely thrown in with and completely 'sold their souls'" to the Liberal ideology?
What the Fuck is the "Liberal ideology"? explain that. If you support trump you support someone who lies with every word out of his mouth, is a con-man who ran a scam university, stole from his own charity, refused to pay his sub contractors after they delivered a quality job on his properties etc. and has no redeeming qualities whatsoever. this is what you respect because, he's not Hillary.
Quite probably those who follow the Democratic Party with a cult like fervor, no matter how distant the planks of the party platform are to reality. Those will lie, cheat, destroy the Constitution, and deceive to achieve their goals.
YOW, that’s a pretty adventurous far flung Sat nite psychoanalysis Brer :mondobizarro: - he was referring to the 4-5 or so regulars here he converses with - on the other side of all things Trump -
It’s just nice having the trolls removed & thank you administrators
Who doesn’t need professional help, we’re all on this CV bus that’s making bozos of us
Re thread title, polls are like opinions & vice versa - everybody has one
This election year in particular, polls mean little - people will continue to change their minds
As has been said, it’s still early - status of conventions comes first
[Edited on 5/17/2020 by Stephen]
Well, certainly a lot of folks have bought in and completely thrown in with and completely sold their soul to The Trumpster Ideology???
How is this any different than those who've "bought in and completely thrown in with and completely 'sold their souls'" to the Liberal ideology?
What the Fuck is the "Liberal ideology"? explain that. If you support trump you support someone who lies with every word out of his mouth, is a con-man who ran a scam university, stole from his own charity, refused to pay his sub contractors after they delivered a quality job on his properties etc. and has no redeeming qualities whatsoever. this is what you respect because, he's not Hillary.
Quite probably those who follow the Democratic Party with a cult like fervor, no matter how distant the planks of the party platform are to reality. Those will lie, cheat, destroy the Constitution, and deceive to achieve their goals.
Strange. Your first sentence refers to the Democratic party, while your second sentence seems to describe the Republican party.
What the Fuck is the "Liberal ideology"? explain that.
Sounds like you do not really understand the word "Ideology"....Here is some help with that: (IDEOLOGY) "a system of ideas and ideals, especially one which forms the basis of economic or political theory and policy.
So it makes sense that almost any word or phrase that precedes this definition might be self-explanatory. If not, A Liberal "Ideology" might include but is not limited to the belief that illegal aliens should receive benefits, be able to acquire a Driver's License, but not be required to show I.D. to vote (Think about that) Believe that the Constitution is outdated. Consistently resort to the use of words like "Bigot" & "Racist" in defense of any argument they have no other rational answer for. More taxes and laws are the answer for everything. I could go on for days...
If you support trump you support someone who lies with every word out of his mouth, is a con-man who ran a scam university, stole from his own charity, refused to pay his sub contractors after they delivered a quality job on his properties etc. and has no redeeming qualities whatsoever. this is what you respect because, he's not Hillary.
Too funny because I would bet that you would use the exact same argument in supporting Joe Biden..
"He is not Trump" Yep. Joe Biden is just and old bully who can't seem to remember where he is, what he has said, lies about his resume, is a plagiarist, has been accused numerous times of sexual assault, does not understand the physical boundaries of his constituents and more than likely will find every excuse in the book not to debate....But you respect him, because he is not Trump...
See how that works?
I hope you lose everything you have
You are a class act
What the Fuck is the "Liberal ideology"? explain that.
Sounds like you do not really understand the word "Ideology"....Here is some help with that: (IDEOLOGY) "a system of ideas and ideals, especially one which forms the basis of economic or political theory and policy.
So it makes sense that almost any word or phrase that precedes this definition might be self-explanatory. If not, A Liberal "Ideology" might include but is not limited to the belief that illegal aliens should receive benefits, be able to acquire a Driver's License, but not be required to show I.D. to vote (Think about that) Believe that the Constitution is outdated. Consistently resort to the use of words like "Bigot" & "Racist" in defense of any argument they have no other rational answer for. More taxes and laws are the answer for everything. I could go on for days...
If you support trump you support someone who lies with every word out of his mouth, is a con-man who ran a scam university, stole from his own charity, refused to pay his sub contractors after they delivered a quality job on his properties etc. and has no redeeming qualities whatsoever. this is what you respect because, he's not Hillary.
Too funny because I would bet that you would use the exact same argument in supporting Joe Biden..
"He is not Trump" Yep. Joe Biden is just and old bully who can't seem to remember where he is, what he has said, lies about his resume, is a plagiarist, has been accused numerous times of sexual assault, does not understand the physical boundaries of his constituents and more than likely will find every excuse in the book not to debate....But you respect him, because he is not Trump...
See how that works?
I'd be interested in hearing about the multiple sexual assult aligations against Biden. I only know of the one, Tera Reade, which is becoming less believable by the day.
But hey, you talk about Bidens mental capacity while Trump thinks George Washington secured the airports during the Revolutionary War, accuse Biden of sexual assult while Trump has a long list of accusers, talk about Biden plagiarizing while Trump plagiarized 20 pages of his fake university's textbook from another author, and do we really need to talk about Trump's long history of lying, bullying, and not understanding boundaries?
If you think those qualities are going to change voters minds from voting for Biden to Trump, then I think you are in for a big surprise. Whatever moral character flaws Biden might have is just a tiny spit in the ocean compared to Trump's telephone book sized list of character flaws. In fact, the best favor Trump and his supporters could do for Biden is to keep the focus on moral character for the next 6 months.
