are we ready for a real war with millions of deaths? hyperbole? maybe? maybe not?
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/08/politics/tillerson-messaging-asia/index.html
Trump could disrupt careful diplomatic messaging on North Korea
By Nicole Gaouette, CNN
Updated 8:51 PM ET, Tue August 8, 2017
Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump's blunt threat to North Korea that it could face the United States' "fire and fury" could undermine work the rest of his Cabinet has been doing to defuse growing tensions in Asia.
For weeks, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has been building what he calls a "peaceful pressure" campaign, roping international partners into a broad effort to push the Democratic People's Republic of Korea to stop brandishing its missiles and weapons and come to the negotiating table.
The top US diplomat has paired that endeavor with an equally important but more subtle project: sending messages of reassurance to China and other Asian nations that the US' aim isn't to destroy North Korea and upend the region, but simply to engage Pyongyang in talks.
Tillerson delivered that message most explicitly August 1 before setting out on a trip to Asia that has taken him to Manila, Malaysia and Thailand this week.
"We do not seek a regime change," Tillerson told reporters before his departure. "We do not seek the collapse of the regime, we do not seek an accelerated reunification of the peninsula, we do not seek an excuse to send our military north of the 38th parallel."
That messaging is key for countries across Asia that have trade and other ties to North Korea, but it's especially crucial for China, which has outsized influence because it accounts for 90% of the DPRK's trade. Beijing's national security interests are at stake if the nation of about 25 million people collapses.
That would send millions of refugees pouring over the border into China, burdening its cities and resources. From a longer term strategic view, Chinese leaders fear the prospect of a unified Korean peninsula that would put US forces -- 28,000 of which are now in South Korea -- right on their doorstep.
Beyond speaking directly to North Korea, Tillerson's message "is certainly meant for China," said Victor Cha, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. And he adds that Tillerson was trying to reach other audiences as well.
His reassurance is also meant for Asian countries, "all of whom have some form of relationship with North Korea to show them the United States is not about North Korea's collapse," Cha said.
Diplomatic signals
And there's an even wider circle for Tillerson's diplomatic signals.
"More broadly, it's for the international community, to have them understand that when we call for sanctions and when we're pressing for sanctions, the purpose is not to try to collapse North Korea, but to compel them to come back to the negotiating table," Cha said.
That's a particularly important message for countries like Russia, which wields a crucial Security Council vote and where there are deep suspicions about the US penchant for "regime change."
As China and other Asian nations balance the threat posed by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un against their desire for stability, Tillerson's challenge has been to bring them along. It remains to be seen how Trump's fiery threats will affect US allies or the regional dynamic.
For now, it's not getting any calmer. North Korea's military is "examining the operational plan" to strike areas around Guam with medium-to-long-range strategic ballistic missiles, the state run KCNA said Wednesday. The statement, from a spokesman from the Strategic Force of the Korean People's Army, warned that recent US military maneuvers -- a reference to the flight of two US B1B bombers over the Korean peninsula Monday -- "may provoke a dangerous conflict."
Pyongyang has steadily increased its testing, launching its fifth nuclear test in September and ratcheting up missile tests exponentially.
US intelligence analysts have assessed, but not concluded, that North Korea has produced a miniaturized nuclear warhead, according to multiple sources familiar with the analysis of North Korea's missile and nuclear program.
Pyongyang launched its second ICBM in late July in a test that demonstrated the potential to reach the US. It was the 11th missile test that North Korea has conducted in 2017. Cha notes that if the rate of tests is extrapolated over the rest of Trump's term, Pyongyang would fire off nearly 100 tests.
That compares to 64 missile tests over the eight years of President Barack Obama's time in the White House. And it marks a stark acceleration from 1994 to 2008, when North Korea did a total of 16 missile tests, Cha said.
'We are not your enemy'
It's that level of intensification that led Tillerson on August 1 to say that, "we're trying to convey to the North Koreans we are not your enemy, we are not your threat, but you are presenting an unacceptable threat to us, and we have to respond."
US officials had recently begun to say they see Tillerson's efforts bearing fruit. They point to the 15-0 Security Council vote on August 5 to impose new sanctions on North Korea, which both China and Russia backed.
China's attitude toward North Korea appears to be shifting, they say, albeit very slowly, comparing Beijing to a slow-turning ship. The US believes Pyongyang's second launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, and South Korea's decision to go ahead with anti-aircraft defenses, are influencing China's thinking.
Indeed, some officials say that steps the US is taking to bolster military defenses in South Korea, and Seoul's more hawkish response to the launches, is creating another kind of strategic pressure on China.
If North Korea continues its aggressive pursuit of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them, other nations like Japan, South Korea and even Vietnam could pursue nuclear weapons or increase regional demand for anti-ballistic missile defense systems.
That would alter the regional balance of power and potentially hurt regional economic growth -- which is crucial for China's economic and political stability.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that his country would pay the largest price for the new UN sanctions against North Korea because of its "traditional economic ties" to Pyongyang -- but that it's a necessary step.
"Given China's traditional economic ties with North Korea, China more than anyone will pay a price for implementing the resolution," Wang said Monday a regional security forum in Manila.
"However, in order to maintain the international nuclear non-proliferation system and regional peace and stability, China will, as always, enforce the full content of relevant resolutions in a comprehensive and strict manner," Wang said, according to a statement from the foreign ministry Tuesday.
Only Trump can fix this.
How realistic is it to assume that Kim Jong-un will respond to any kind of diplomacy? It's likely he ordered the execution of his half brother, Kim Jong-nam ( https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/15/world/asia/kim-jong-nam-dna-malaysia.html?r=0) and may have arranged the murder of his uncle, Jang Song Thaek, ( https://www.nknews.org/2016/08/kim-jong-uns-executed-uncle-jang-song-thaek-reappears-on-n-korean-media/). But NK is so secretive that it's hard to be certain. All the same, it would be naïve to assume that he would keep his word about anything.
Guam is an unincorporated U.S. territory. Full disclosure: I don't know a thing about international law. But when Japan bombed Pearl Harbor (part of another U.S. territory) in 1941, we declared war on them quickly.
I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.
Attributed to Naval Marshal General Isoroku Yamamoto, but there's no evidence that he actually said so. But if he didn't, he should have.
President Trump is still the Commander-in-Chief, regardless of public opinion, "resistance", and other irrelevancies. I voted for him reluctantly, but I support him in this situation, especially since he's responsible for the protection of the lives of American citizens.
Billastro
How realistic is it to assume that Kim Jong-un will respond to any kind of diplomacy? It's likely he ordered the execution of his half brother, Kim Jong-nam ( https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/15/world/asia/kim-jong-nam-dna-malaysia.html?r=0) and may have arranged the murder of his uncle, Jang Song Thaek, ( https://www.nknews.org/2016/08/kim-jong-uns-executed-uncle-jang-song-thaek-reappears-on-n-korean-media/). But NK is so secretive that it's hard to be certain. All the same, it would be naïve to assume that he would keep his word about anything.
Guam is an unincorporated U.S. territory. Full disclosure: I don't know a thing about international law. But when Japan bombed Pearl Harbor (part of another U.S. territory) in 1941, we declared war on them quickly.
I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.
Attributed to Naval Marshal General Isoroku Yamamoto, but there's no evidence that he actually said so. But if he didn't, he should have.
President Trump is still the Commander-in-Chief, regardless of public opinion, "resistance", and other irrelevancies. I voted for him reluctantly, but I support him in this situation, especially since he's responsible for the protection of the lives of American citizens.
Billastro
Everyone who has been breathing since 1945 is familiar with the fact that is Mutually Assured Destruction. Trump didn't do anything by stating "fire and fury" other than stating the obvious.
I do not in any way, shape or form trust a man who seems to have the impulsive and defensive whims of the average six year old boy.
Let's be honest here. It doesn't really matter what Trump says. He has lied so much that he has zero credibility. His words no longer have any meaning to foreign leaders. All that matters is what they actually believe of his personality, whether they believe he is reasonable and rational or if they believe he is completely unhinged. Tough talk isn't going to scare anybody.
Trump is straight and to the point. He tells you what he thinks. The bigger question is are the people of the US willing to face the damage North Korean nukes could wage upon them and their neighborhoods? They can hit the east coast, they can hit Denver, they can hit the west coast. Yet nobody is saying, stop the madness, pre-emptive strikes cannot be considered. Why isn't anyone doing this?
I will tell you I have read what happens if you are in an area that gets hit, basically you die in 6 weeks. The first 2 weeks you are not functional, you cannot do anything. The next 2 weeks you go into a remission like state where you are able to do some things, then you start going down and at the 6 week point, you die from radiation poisoning. So be prepared. Iodine pills will not help you if you are in a target zone that gets hit.
Trump is straight and to the point. He tells you what he thinks. The bigger question is are the people of the US willing to face the damage North Korean nukes could wage upon them and their neighborhoods? They can hit the east coast, they can hit Denver, they can hit the west coast. Yet nobody is saying, stop the madness, pre-emptive strikes cannot be considered. Why isn't anyone doing this?
I will tell you I have read what happens if you are in an area that gets hit, basically you die in 6 weeks. The first 2 weeks you are not functional, you cannot do anything. The next 2 weeks you go into a remission like state where you are able to do some things, then you start going down and at the 6 week point, you die from radiation poisoning. So be prepared. Iodine pills will not help you if you are in a target zone that gets hit.
Now you are an expert on nuclear war? Give it a rest, OK?
Trump is straight and to the point. He tells you what he thinks. The bigger question is are the people of the US willing to face the damage North Korean nukes could wage upon them and their neighborhoods? They can hit the east coast, they can hit Denver, they can hit the west coast. Yet nobody is saying, stop the madness, pre-emptive strikes cannot be considered. Why isn't anyone doing this?
I will tell you I have read what happens if you are in an area that gets hit, basically you die in 6 weeks. The first 2 weeks you are not functional, you cannot do anything. The next 2 weeks you go into a remission like state where you are able to do some things, then you start going down and at the 6 week point, you die from radiation poisoning. So be prepared. Iodine pills will not help you if you are in a target zone that gets hit.
Now you are an expert on nuclear war? Give it a rest, OK?
If anything, Gina understates the situation by several orders of magnitude. Read Hiroshima by John Hersey. Then ponder the fact that the bombs we dropped on Japan in 1945 were a fraction of the size of what Kim could be preparing.
Sarcasm is a poor substitute for knowledge.
Billastro
Trump is straight and to the point. He tells you what he thinks. The bigger question is are the people of the US willing to face the damage North Korean nukes could wage upon them and their neighborhoods? They can hit the east coast, they can hit Denver, they can hit the west coast. Yet nobody is saying, stop the madness, pre-emptive strikes cannot be considered. Why isn't anyone doing this?
I will tell you I have read what happens if you are in an area that gets hit, basically you die in 6 weeks. The first 2 weeks you are not functional, you cannot do anything. The next 2 weeks you go into a remission like state where you are able to do some things, then you start going down and at the 6 week point, you die from radiation poisoning. So be prepared. Iodine pills will not help you if you are in a target zone that gets hit.
"He tells you what he thinks."
No, he tells you the most recent impulsive thought that races across his mind. He has irrational tendencies.
He & his counterpart in North Korea are playing a dangerous game of chicken. They are very similar leaders - not a compliment to either.
Trump is straight and to the point. He tells you what he thinks. The bigger question is are the people of the US willing to face the damage North Korean nukes could wage upon them and their neighborhoods? They can hit the east coast, they can hit Denver, they can hit the west coast. Yet nobody is saying, stop the madness, pre-emptive strikes cannot be considered. Why isn't anyone doing this?
I will tell you I have read what happens if you are in an area that gets hit, basically you die in 6 weeks. The first 2 weeks you are not functional, you cannot do anything. The next 2 weeks you go into a remission like state where you are able to do some things, then you start going down and at the 6 week point, you die from radiation poisoning. So be prepared. Iodine pills will not help you if you are in a target zone that gets hit.
Now you are an expert on nuclear war? Give it a rest, OK?
If anything, Gina understates the situation by several orders of magnitude. Read Hiroshima by John Hersey. Then ponder the fact that the bombs we dropped on Japan in 1945 were a fraction of the size of what Kim could be preparing.
Sarcasm is a poor substitute for knowledge.
Billastro
realloy? She said
I will tell you I have read what happens if you are in an area that gets hit, basically you die in 6 weeks. The first 2 weeks you are not functional, you cannot do anything. The next 2 weeks you go into a remission like state where you are able to do some things, then you start going down and at the 6 week point, you die from radiation poisoning.
Depending on how close you are to the blast site, you can die immediately or live for years. There is no set timetable for living after a nuke hits. And, since there has never been a nuke set off in a populated area since 1945, anything said on this is pure conjecture.
But gina is an expert in every thread here. Who are we to question her?
politics aside, i think we all as old men....and worldly women....knew someday a standoff would happen with north korea. i'm not sure if i am .....aghast at Trump's rhetoric? where will this go.....hopefully nowhere? somewhere? anywhere?
BTW North Korea's Nukes are like Scuds....they can only toss em in a general direction. i know that sounds dumb but the point is dead hits on a population center is iffy. and blast zone is 14 mile diameter. i forgot my point.
oh yea, so maybe they launch one at us....maybe our missiles take it out....who's gonna complain when we destroy the place. 4 of our best nukes make the place unlivable. and we and the rest of the world has to live with the fact we killed that many people.
i tell ya, i wouldn't be surprised if we didn't drop a message on NK if they do launch missiles toward Guam
[Edited on 8/11/2017 by LeglizHemp]
Thats a nice tiitle but in reality what if anything, has worked up to now? If we continue on this course North Korea will slowly advance in their capability to develop deliverable nuclear devices. I couldnt imagine this scenario 10 years from now when the stakes are higher, and our two countries have real weapons pointed at each other.
Thats a nice tiitle but in reality what if anything, has worked up to now? If we continue on this course North Korea will slowly advance in their capability to develop deliverable nuclear devices. I couldnt imagine this scenario 10 years from now when the stakes are higher, and our two countries have real weapons pointed at each other.
You think they don't have that now????
Laughable.
And delusional.
Thats a nice tiitle but in reality what if anything, has worked up to now? If we continue on this course North Korea will slowly advance in their capability to develop deliverable nuclear devices. I couldnt imagine this scenario 10 years from now when the stakes are higher, and our two countries have real weapons pointed at each other.
Obama's policy of "Strategic Patience" (ignoring the problem" simply allowed NK to continue to nuclear tests and missile technology.
The left doesn't want to talk about the reality of the situation or the fact that diplomacy has achieved nothing.
The NK dictator has nuclear weapons and a delivery system and has directly threatened the U.S.
President Trump's approach is exactly right. If NK attacks the U.S. or any of our allies we will make them cry.
The NK dictator has nuclear weapons and a delivery system
And you know this? How? Must of been the left wing media, that told you. Diplomacy with N.K. goes much further back than the Obama presidency.
The NK dictator has nuclear weapons and a delivery system
And you know this? How? Must of been the left wing media, that told you. Diplomacy with N.K. goes much further back than the Obama presidency.
"And you know this? How?"
How can you not know?
Military experts and Intelligence professionals have said so and proved it with factual date. Of course the corrupt liberal media doesn't report those petty little details but keeping the lefties uninformed is paramount to their control of the weak.Diplomacy with NK has failed going back to Clinton in 1994 agreeing to pay them billions to dismantle their nuclear program.
How did that work out for the world?At some point the U.S. has to warm that diplomacy will end is NK chooses to attack the U.S. or any of our allies. President Trump has made NK quite aware that the past policy of strategic patience is over. It failed.
Just look at the title of this thread with the "careful diplomatic messaging" crap.
The NK dictator only understands strength and President Trump has stood tall and strong against NK's threats.
The NK dictator has nuclear weapons and a delivery system
And you know this? How? Must of been the left wing media, that told you. Diplomacy with N.K. goes much further back than the Obama presidency.
"And you know this? How?"
How can you not know?
Military experts and Intelligence professionals have said so and proved it with factual date.Like the WMD in Iraq?
The NK dictator has nuclear weapons and a delivery system
And you know this? How? Must of been the left wing media, that told you. Diplomacy with N.K. goes much further back than the Obama presidency.
"And you know this? How?"
How can you not know?
Military experts and Intelligence professionals have said so and proved it with factual date.Like the WMD in Iraq?
Iraq's WMD has been proven many times yet the corrupt liberal media didn't report it.
Why would they? Admitting their lies about no WMD doesn't advance their political narrative.I have seen one of Saddam's mobile chemical trucks at the Oak Ridge laboratory in Tennessee.
The legitimate press have shown the WMD many times and Assad's chemical stockpile was proven to have come from Iraq.You can hide from the facts and continue to remain ignorant, it is entirely your choice.
Iraq's WMD has been proven many times yet the corrupt liberal media didn't report it.
OK, help us out here then, post a couple links to non-CLM sources that reveal the shining light of truth that you bask in daily, and laugh at lesser mortals from your mountaintop of enlightenment.
Now comes the part where you get told that if you don't know the correct sources, he can't help you.
You mean like "That's for me to know and you to find out . . . nyah nyah nyah nyah nyaah nyaah" ?
Iraq's WMD has been proven many times yet the corrupt liberal media didn't report it.
OK, help us out here then, post a couple links to non-CLM sources that reveal the shining light of truth that you bask in daily, and laugh at lesser mortals from your mountaintop of enlightenment.
Ah the typical response from the ignorant.
Being informed and having the ability to understand the data has nothing to do with "enlightenment". It is a matter of sourcing factual information and being able to discern the crap from the corrupt liberal media and reality.
Why should I do the basic research you are too stupid or lazy to do for yourself?
Get up off your lazy liberal ass and get informed.
You're just a little cranky because the hot devotchka at the terminal next to yours went out for Stoli with your boss. Got the Troll Farm Blues.
Like the WMD in Iraq?
Iraq's WMD has been proven many times yet the corrupt liberal media didn't report it.
Why would they? Admitting their lies about no WMD doesn't advance their political narrative.
I have seen one of Saddam's mobile chemical trucks at the Oak Ridge laboratory in Tennessee.
The legitimate press have shown the WMD many times and Assad's chemical stockpile was proven to have come from Iraq.
You can hide from the facts and continue to remain ignorant, it is entirely your choice.
Thanks for clarifying.
I have seen one of Saddam's mobile chemical trucks at the Oak Ridge laboratory in Tennessee.
Compromising your cover there, comrade. That will cost you ten demerits, and you will have to report to the desk for reassignment. You have been repeatedly warned not to become too personally involved with your target site.
Interesting..
They got you talking about Iraq & WMD now because they can't make their case on North Korea.
You see, Muleski? They are still fooled, the Charlie Daniels turdsucker truck ruse is still intact. You were dangerously close to exposing our mission. You have failed as a remote operative, report to Kremlin Hospital for reattachment to the Trump Human Centipede.
You see, Muleski? They are still fooled, the Charlie Daniels turdsucker truck ruse is still intact. You were dangerously close to exposing our mission. You have failed as a remote operative, report to Kremlin Hospital for reattachment to the Trump Human Centipede.
Ah, the perfect demonstration of your delusion.
You really need to stop smoking that schit son. Crap has made you null and void.
You reap what you sow, brother. The web is just a mirror. People here made attempts to dialogue with you in the past, even a few gestures of friendship and humor, but you have made it clear all along that you are a toxic conflicted individual with no interest in anything but your own poison.
All you deserve at this point is mockery.
