You're right that Trump is dangerous in that he has a cult following who will believe & do anything he says. He perceives people as voters to be manipulated to his advantage. CNN did a short video at the FL rally where the maskless, non-social distancing attendees were asked if they thought wearing a mask would help protect spread of the virus. Not surprisingly, the answers ranged from "no, masks are actually harmful" to "no." When pressed as to whether they were concerned about getting Covid, the answers ranged from "no," to "it's God's will if I die." The FINAL question was if Trump said to wear a mask, would you wear one. The answer was "yes." This batch of rally attendees were solid in their abdication of any cognitive ability of their own in favor of blind loyalty to Trump.
Trump could snap his fingers & his disciples would be wearing masks. For a man who is concerned about the economy or re-election or ego, he could have a win-win. The spread would be slowed by a 99% mask-wearing public AND his approval rating would jump for encouraging the one thing that the world knows slows spread.
I watched those interviews yesterday - jaw dropping responses.
most polls have Joe ahead, if it holds to form, in just 3 more weeks America’s four-year hell under ‘deranged dictator Donald/imperial king Trump’ will be over
it’s not a cinch, the president has his supporters (minions? disciples?), & his detractors wont get complacent
mayb in its welcome refreshing liberating age-of-aquarius sunshine, the new administration could get covid #s to drop
I suspect Joe will actually listen to the sceintists instead of pushing them aside as opposed to King Trump because their reality gets in the way of Trump's. That will be a good start to see scientists front & center instead of someone who thinks he can dispute scientists. Also a nationalistic approach to dealing with Covid will go a long ways.
Very impressive how Trump has pushed Fauci aside & disputes him regularly yet used Fauci in a poltical add taking the good doctor completely out of context. But that's our Donnie.
most polls have Joe ahead
Are these the same polls that had Hillary winning in '16?
Yes, we just recycled them from 2016.....
Yeah, they even have Hillary's name on it. Exactly the same. I heard James Comey is planning on making a notification to congress just a couple days before the election after the last polls are taken as just like last time.
Besides, if the GOP was concerned about Trump losing they would be in a rush to fill the Supreme Court seat before the election, and that is totally not happening.
Anybody who doubts the polls and is big enough to step up to the plate, the Charity Challenge remains open. You take Super Spreader Trump, & I take Joe Biden. All winning on my part goes to charity. Talk is cheap, & anyone can hide behind posts. Show us how big you are and back Trump. I'll go anywhere between $100 & $1,000.
Hard to get takers?
I doubt all polls (not just political) because they can be so easily manipulated. I also read a piece last week that compared 6 polls (there had been 7 but one no longer exists) from this point in 2016 w/2020. All had the same Dem lead - from 5-12 points - & the guy living in the WH isn't a Dem.
I may be especially skeptical because we NYers are still in shock from 2016 plus the lack of any success in reining in any of Trump's criminal self-dealing conduct. Even Covid couldn't keep him down for more than 1.5 days, but I hope you're right.
- @martind28 no chance bro - it’s not a sound bet for supporters of either side to make - too much can happen over the next 3 weeks
- it looks like it’ll be as close as it was in 2016, only in the toxic environment of 2020, charges of fraud, corruption, vote fixing, demands for a recount etc are likely to come from the losing party - that’s too-shaky ground to place a wager for me
Hard to get takers?
I doubt all polls (not just political) because they can be so easily manipulated. I also read a piece last week that compared 6 polls (there had been 7 but one no longer exists) from this point in 2016 w/2020. All had the same Dem lead - from 5-12 points - & the guy living in the WH isn't a Dem.
I may be especially skeptical because we NYers are still in shock from 2016 plus the lack of any success in reining in any of Trump's criminal self-dealing conduct. Even Covid couldn't keep him down for more than 1.5 days, but I hope you're right.
Yep - hard to get NEW takers.
I'm not moving off of my belief that the 2018 midterms referendum on Trump have only intensified. I'm not sure the polls will hold up with the % difference that we're seeing now, but as long as Trump is ousted, then it's a win for normalcy, decency, and science.
- @martind28 no chance bro - it’s not a sound bet for supporters of either side to make - too much can happen over the next 3 weeks
- it looks like it’ll be as close as it was in 2016, only in the toxic environment of 2020, charges of fraud, corruption, vote fixing, demands for a recount etc are likely to come from the losing party - that’s too-shaky ground to place a wager for me
See your first bullet point - I suspect enough of the voters have already made up their mind that nothing that can happen in the next 3 weeks matters. If the 40% haven't moved off of Trump with everthing they've seen in nearly 4 years, then they are "lifers for Trump".
See your second bullet point. Who do you think that applies to, and who has been planting the seeds? Hint - it's the guy I presume you're going to vote for.
I'm w/stephen on this - A LOT could happen in the next few weeks especially since things that could never have been imagined happened seemingly overnight in the past 4 years. In a matter of days, RBG died; Trump tested positive & became a super-spreader at several events; was hospitalized, cured, & miraculously went on to travel to rally the faithful; all objections to a SCOTUS nominee hearing in a president's final term were waived away by McConnell, a nominee was announced, her hearings are being conducted, & a new justice likely will be seated before the election. That's head-swiveling. And that's not including the 1st debate, Trump's refusal to denounce white supremacists, & the FBI's announcement of militia plans to kidnap the governors of MI & VA.
Your reliance on the 2018 results misses a key factor - Covid. Trump's ignoring it in the early stages put the US on the back foot, but then he himself [presumably] got it, recovered quickly due to the singularly aggressive medical care he received, & pronounced himself cured thanks to miracle drugs from God. It pits voters who favor scientific fact versus those who either believe or are fatalists.
I'm w/stephen on this - A LOT could happen in the next few weeks especially since things that could never have been imagined happened seemingly overnight in the past 4 years. In a matter of days, RBG died; Trump tested positive & became a super-spreader at several events; was hospitalized, cured, & miraculously went on to travel to rally the faithful; all objections to a SCOTUS nominee hearing in a president's final term were waived away by McConnell, a nominee was announced, her hearings are being conducted, & a new justice likely will be seated before the election. That's head-swiveling. And that's not including the 1st debate, Trump's refusal to denounce white supremacists, & the FBI's announcement of militia plans to kidnap the governors of MI & VA.
Your reliance on the 2018 results misses a key factor - Covid. Trump's ignoring it in the early stages put the US on the back foot, but then he himself [presumably] got it, recovered quickly due to the singularly aggressive medical care he received, & pronounced himself cured thanks to miracle drugs from God. It pits voters who favor scientific fact versus those who either believe or are fatalists.
I'm not budging no matter what is fluid, no matter the variables, no matter what the "what if's", and no matter the dynamics. 2016 will be seen as an aberration. The GOP will have to rebuild and rebrand itself after next month & after hitching their trolley cars to what the hell has pretended to be prez for the last 4 years. I stick by Charity Challenge and don't see any of the Trumpsters taking a plunge...why not?
MartinD28, imo both sides seem equally liable to challenge the outcome, IF it is close - as a matter of fact, if indeed decided by just a narrow margin - say 10,000 votes, or 1% of the vote or so - the losing party should be given the option to do so - it should be agreed on now - if Dems lost controversially, I think Joe would ask for a recount, likewise/vice versa w/GOP - they should - hopefully the process would be rancor-free but I doubt it
cyclone88, always appreciate your respectful posts (martin28 also) - yes too many variables to make a call on the outcome - polls mean little, so would a final debate
dfrnt topic, don’t understand why the wish to begin hearings promptly to fill RBG’s place on the bench, was considered disrespectful - nor Trump’s call to get low covid risk Americans back to a normal life (that was on radio earlier today) - & that’s just a small sampling of things I don’t understand nowadays🌎🙃
It was disrespectful because of what the republicants did to Merrick Garland with 10 months left in Obama's term - plus RBG requesting that her spot not be filled until after the elections
The polls had Hillary winning last time. Every time I hear about how the polls show one candidate will heartily over another, I think of the headline :
DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN.
Yes, but the polls were wrong in only 3 states, and the actual results we within the polls margin for error, so they weren't actually wrong.
Also, the polls were taken before James Comey's last minute gift to Trump.
Could the same thing happen again? Well, I can't rule it out, but Biden has a much larger lead than Clinton, and there are more battleground states this time around, and Trump would need to win bretty much ALL of them. Honestly, I don't think it's even going to be close. There is not a single state Trump didn't win last time that is even competitive. I don't see how he is going to win Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina (all of which he is behind) and Georgia and Texas (all of which he has a razor thin lead). Biden is closer in several red states than Trump is in some of these.
To save his own political skin, our "fearless leader" has gone as far as to state that Covid is OVER. He adds that he probably woulda-coulda gotten over the virus WITHOUT any of the high tech medicines and treatment that he received.
Relapses with Coronavirus are not uncommon. Should Donnie boy find himself in this state, my personal sympathy will be somewhere between what I'd have for a person whose Starbucks order got messed up and another who found himself in a restroom stall with single-ply.
In my life I have found three truisms that I ascribe to:
1. Don't store matches too close to gasoline;
2. Don't keep Krazy Glue and Preparation H on the same shelf - and
3. Don't accept scientific observations/advice from anyone seeking or holding public office (especially POTUS - and especially the CURRENT POTUS).
Please listen to the advice coming from folks like Dr. Fauci. It's time to seriously narrow down our personal bubbles. Keep the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday to a minimum of guests. And if you're one of those who go to high-attendance events (football games, concerts, churches, and bars) - kindly and respectfully KEEP THE FOCK AWAY from others who have made a self-preservation decision and effort to not do the same.
The conflict about hearings for a SCOTUS nominee was due to the fact that the Senate reversed their political maneuver of refusing to have a hearing to replace Justice Scalia 10 months before the 2016 election or 38 months into Obama's 48 month term (the theory being voters should have input by who they elected to represent them). Justice Ginsburg died about 6 weeks before the 2020 election & the Senate now doesn't want to risk voter input. Although Justice Ginsburg expressed a wish that she not be replaced until after the next inauguration, that's merely her personal hope. FWIW, the Senate got it wrong in 2016 because voters elected Obama for 4 full years & that included nominating SCOTUS justices.
As to getting "low risk" people back to "normal," science demonstrates that there are no such things. For one, major businesses that drive the economy never stopped - staff did & still do continue to work from a different location instead of their cubicle, corner office, or workspace. That's something that's frequently overlooked in talk about Covid killing the economy. The hard-hit sectors were retail (in the midst of a transition anyway), personal services, and entertainment - a mix of heavy hitters like Disney & small businesses like the local bar/club. What's been discovered is there are no "low risk" people. Children, including Trump's 14-year old son, twenty-somethings, and pre-retirement adults are at risk and do get it. Attempts to re-open w/anything less than daily disinfecting, distancing, and mandatory masks have all resulted in new Covid outbreaks - some of which have required closing again.
Until there's a safe, effective vaccine, Covid is pretty much dictating our lives. It can't be willed, bullied, or wished away.
Until there's a safe, effective vaccine, Covid is pretty much dictating our lives. It can't be willed, bullied, or wished away.
Except that Superspreader Donnie did talk about herd "mentality". That's always a possible cure. Wonder how many got their herd mentality fix today in Trump's NC Covid Rally? And onto another set of Covid packed rallies over the next 3 weeks. Exciting. See if the results follow that of Minnesota. What's a little collateral damage to peoples' health all in the name of a reelection bid? Onward.
Except that Superspreader Donnie did talk about herd "mentality". That's always a possible cure. Wonder how many got their herd mentality fix today in Trump's NC Covid Rally? And onto another set of Covid packed rallies over the next 3 weeks. Exciting. See if the results follow that of Minnesota. What's a little collateral damage to peoples' health all in the name of a reelection bid? Onward.
Did Trump really talk about herd mentality instead of herd "immunity?" I think he's already got a lock on herd mentality w/his MAGA supporters.
As of now, herd immunity doesn't exist as there's no scientific evidence that once infected, recovered people can't get it again & that information is unlikely to be obtained given the low level of basic precautionary/diagnostic testing. So far, no epidemiologists have recommended herd immunity as the preferred Covid-defeating strategy going forward. I would also think from a basic economic analysis, the herd has to consist of buyers and sellers; businesses can open their doors w/no precautions, but they need customers who are willing to risk their lives for whatever product or service is being provided.
So far, the American Bar Association hasn't issued any position on Covid/herd immunity/liability; the only case that would be remotely comparable would be that against an international cruise line that failed to notify passengers that its previous cruise carried multiple Covid positive passengers. I don't see insurers lining up to cover businesses that fail to take any precautions in order to advance herd immunity, either.
Fauci came out very strongly about herd immunity ......
There are many sources for the story, I picked this one because it was easier to read without a lot of pop-ups... Google shows many sources if you want to complain about the source... 😮
Except that Superspreader Donnie did talk about herd "mentality". That's always a possible cure. Wonder how many got their herd mentality fix today in Trump's NC Covid Rally? And onto another set of Covid packed rallies over the next 3 weeks. Exciting. See if the results follow that of Minnesota. What's a little collateral damage to peoples' health all in the name of a reelection bid? Onward.
Did Trump really talk about herd mentality instead of herd "immunity?" I think he's already got a lock on herd mentality w/his MAGA supporters.
https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/16/herd-mentality-trump-again-asserts-coronavirus-will-just-disappear/114035832/
'Herd mentality': Trump again asserts coronavirus will just 'disappear'
WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump claimed Tuesday during a televised town hall that "herd mentality" could make the coronavirus "disappear" with or without a vaccine.
During a 90-minute town hall hosted by ABC News in the must win battleground of Pennsylvania, Trump defended his repeated assertion that the virus will eventually disappear even without a vaccine, citing what he called "herd mentality," an apparent reference to "herd immunity."
ABC News' Chief Anchor George Stephanopoulos asked Trump whether the coronavirus "would go away without the vaccine?"
"Sure, over a period of time. Sure, with time it goes away --" Trump responded.
Stephanopoulos interjected: "--And many deaths."
"And you'll develop, you'll develop herd -- like a herd mentality. It's going to be -- it's going to be herd developed - and that's going to happen. That will all happen," Trump said.
