The US population was smaller.
100,000 deaths / 200,000,000 population = .05% of US population died
76,101 deaths / 330,000,000 population = .023% of US has population died to date
Granted the H3N2 death count was over a two wave period. We have yet to make it through our first wave, let alone a second.
If we take the .05% of US population that died during the 1968/69 and apply it to today's population that comes out to 165,000 deaths.
The two may end up being comparable, no?
No, although you have a good point about the population, this pandemic has been over a period of just a few months with EXTREME countermeasures. The 68/69 was for well over a year (close to 2 years I think) with pretty much no countermeasures at all. This virus spreads much more quickly and easily.
The US population was smaller.
100,000 deaths / 200,000,000 population = .05% of US population died
76,101 deaths / 330,000,000 population = .023% of US has population died to date
Granted the H3N2 death count was over a two wave period. We have yet to make it through our first wave, let alone a second.
If we take the .05% of US population that died during the 1968/69 and apply it to today's population that comes out to 165,000 deaths.
The two may end up being comparable, no?
No, although you have a good point about the population, this pandemic has been over a period of just a few months with EXTREME countermeasures. The 68/69 was for well over a year (close to 2 years I think) with pretty much no countermeasures at all. This virus spreads much more quickly and easily.
Respectfully disagree. Take away the densely populated areas where the impact has been the worst, and this has been almost a non-event. Certainly not worthy of the ridiculous measures we've taken. A lot of that added population has been in the exact cities where the density has caused the worst outcomes. More population density = geometrically greater spread.
agree that greater population = greater spread
we don't know yet how much of a non event is will be in non dense areas
all we know is number of cases so far (which is not going down) with the intervention of social distancing. we don't know what would have happened if we didn't restrict activity or what will happen once things open up.
I hope my fears are not realized.
we have already lost more Americans than we did in Viet Nam
we have already lost more Americans than we did in Viet Nam
Not to downplay the importance of any lives, but that happens nearly every year to just the regular flu.
In some years, yes but not all
Overall, the CDC estimates that 12,000 and 61,000 deaths annually since 2010 can be blamed on the flu.
https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year
this has been a few months
population density doesn't just include cities - for example look at meat packing plants and pork processing plants
for that matter, my step son is stationed at Fort Bragg, NC. The base has been in isolation for a month, yet my step son and his roomate have it.
[Edited on 5/8/2020 by stormyrider]
So let me get this straight, we aren't dropping like flies, so the precautions were a joke.
Not a joke at all - well intentioned obviously.
But a line was crossed when officials dictated that the people least able to afford an economic calamity were non-essential, and had to forego their livelihoods for something the human race has encountered many times in the past - a new virus. Unproven models predicted results to which massive fear was then applied. Tinpot dictators sprung up enacting executive orders suspending Constitutional rights, which should have caused a mass rejection of said orders. But no, the majority cowered.
I think its far too early to say we "rocked" anything. We haven't remotely begun to see the economic and personal toll this is going to take on the country.
Life is a risk. Events and evolution selects who survives or not. That's why we have an immune system that fights off this crap for most of us. Its now obvious that locking ones self away hasn't prevented it from infecting many. But the overwhelming majority who were infected have survived. Just like past virus episodes.
I'm more concerned that we'll end up with 30-50 million (or more) in disastrous economic shape than if we lost 100,000-200,000 mostly elderly, probably already compromised individuals. I know how harsh that sounds. Heck, I'm old enough to be in that latter group. But common sense has to prevail over fear, and unfortunately we've missed that boat. The cure may end up being far worse than the illness.
100,000-200,000 mostly elderly,
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku
I can't get the table to copy / paste here but mostly elderly doesn't mean only elderly (not that those lives are less valuble). Because younger people are lower risk it doesn't mean they are low risk. A small percentage of 70,000 people is still a lot of people. Doctors, nurses and other hospital workers died taking care of patients with this.
Sorry, I can't stand aside and let Darwin take care of it.
I get the economic pain. I know people who lost jobs, are afraid of losing businesses, etc. My wife got furloughed, friends got laid off. It sucks. Along with the economic pain of people losing their jobs is the economic pain of taking care of a ton of sick people and making sure the people that take care of them are safe.
People seek understanding...what is happening, why, what can we compare it to. Comparisons are always happening in life...'this sounds like that', 'this reminds me of that', 'this is kinda like that other time', and so on.
Sometimes things aren't really comparable, but it helps us understand variables and cause and effects.
There are some comparisons between 1968/69 H3N2 and Covid and there are some differences. For one, we have confirmed Covid deaths - I know even that is in dispute, some say they are under-reported, some say they are over-reported. Whatever, we have a confirmed death statistic. When the CDC comes up with flu deaths, they are estimates, not confirmed. And I don't know about H3N2 from 51 years ago, but when they issue annual estimates for deaths now, those include pneumonia. The figures I see from the 1968/69 pandemic all say "estimated". Maybe they're high, maybe they're low. Comparing estimated anything to confirmed something is problematic. 2112 raises the timeframe difference and the open nature of life vs our mitigated life now, noted.
Bad things have happened before, and we got past it. What can we draw upon from what happened before and apply to what is happening now?
Real time images and media exposure are powerful. If there were photos and videos of the Germans stocking dead bodies in subway tunnels because people were dying so fast during the Hong Kong flu pandemic all over the TV no doubt that would've had an impact, as in "what, that can come here, is here, what are we going to do?". Which is what happened when we saw the dire situation in Italy.
Nobody wanted what happened in Italy to happen here. Italy didn't want it "America this is coming to you". Maybe our nature is to be more reactionary now, maybe our society is more in need of somebody to save us and less accepting of the dangers that might be around the corner.
The debate on what should've happened and if it was the right approach or too far (or not far enough) will be argued for the rest of our lives, and beyond.
I have no problem with the actions any of our governors took. It's done. Actions were taken and outcomes have been determined. It can't be undone. Figuring out what to do in the face of pending chaos and death is difficult, especially when people are looking to their leaders and asking "what are you going to do".
So ok, we've done that.
And as I've said before, now we have to learn to live with this virus. What did I hear somebody covid-19 and social distancing and all the measures that come with it might be with us not just til 2021, but 2022. That was a scientist, so what, you have to listen to the scientists right? We'll just put all our hopes and dreams and financial needs in your hands dear scientist, we won't do anything "dangerous" until after 2022. I mean WTF are we supposed to do? Wait for a vaccine I guess. Just ordered to stay home and wait til, who knows when for that.
We have to adapt and live with this virus. Yes more infections will happen. Yes more people will die. All we can do is take precautions to limit those outcomes.
Different places are different and I don't know what is going on everywhere and I'm not going to speak for every state out there.
You have to look at your case count, your % of positive/negative infections, your hospitalizations, your ICU rate, your medical facilities, capacity and personnel, you have to be able to contract trace. All of that needs factored and people have to make a decision what and when to make the next move.
We did what was asked of us, we have "flattened the curve". We have allowed PPE and equipment to build up. We have bought time for the medical researchers to investigate therapeutics and treatments and start trials on vaccines. We have put plexiglass and dividers up at places of employment. We have limited capacity in businesses. We have people wearing masks. We have disinfecting and frequent cleaning of surfaces. We've learned to do curb-side pick-up. We don't hug, we don't handshake, we try and keep distance from others. People are wearing gloves at work, to shop, when on public transportation. We don't let visitors into hospitals or congregate living facilities. In some cases have 14 day quarantine orders for people who travel to our states.
We have done about all we can do to adjust to this contagious disease. Some people will be cautious, some people won't. I said before, we'll get what we get, it will be what it will be like everything else in life.
Even California is ready to opensome 70% of their economy. Ohio will be in the 80-90% open range in a couple weeks.
It's time to try something else. If people feel safer staying in their homes, fine, stay in your home. People have to make choices and understand whatever risks there are. If you don't like those risks, then take measures to minimize said risk.
Whatever is going to happen will happen. We're prepared now to know what we are up against. Two months ago we didn't know what was about to happen. Let's use what we know now and take the next step, and then another, and then another. Everyone is doing it. Not just USA, not just Republican Governors. This is happening.
Well said
The problem is that we are in a black hole in that we don’t have enough data
Not enough diagnostic tests
Not enough antibody tests
We don’t even know for sure what the meaning of having antibodies is regarding immunity we think people would be immune, but we don’t know
You can feel great and still be contagious
The greatest risk of catching the disease is if you are in a closed space for a long time, ie store worker, factory worker, church/synagogue attendee
So as we open, please wear a mask. You will be protecting others. The other people wearing masks will protect you
Certainly not worthy of the ridiculous measures we've taken.
Now that statement just pisses me off.
The Trump administration's response to the coronavirus crisis has been an absolute chaotic disaster and these extreme measures had to be put in place because:
TRUMP FAILED TO TAKE THIS AS SERIOUSLY AS HE WAS BEING ADVISED TO. OVER. AND. OVER.
Certainly not worthy of the ridiculous measures we've taken.
Now that statement just pisses me off.
The Trump administration's response to the coronavirus crisis has been an absolute chaotic disaster and these extreme measures had to be put in place because:
TRUMP FAILED TO TAKE THIS AS SERIOUSLY AS HE WAS BEING ADVISED TO. OVER. AND. OVER.
The good news is that in the battle of the brains between Dr. Trump & Dr. Fauci, Dr. Trump says Covid19 will just disappear. I don't even know why Trump lets Dr. Fauci hang around since Trump knows more. Probably should have gotten rid of Dr. Fauci just like he got rid of the NSC Pandemic Unit. It's all a hoax anyway, right?
Trump says coronavirus will disappear without a vaccine. Fauci has said the opposite.
https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Trump-says-coronavirus-will-disappear-without-a-15257748.php
Certainly not worthy of the ridiculous measures we've taken.
Now that statement just pisses me off.
Really toxic stuff.
Most of us get it, see the common sense
Their arrogant and self-centered worldview
Once again, there is only one way to see things and to disagree requires labeling
Interesting numbers. From the Heritage Foundation so some might dismiss them but.
With many state and local governments starting to relax stay-at-home orders, it’s instructive to examine just how concentrated the spread of COVID-19 has been in the U.S.
Although all U.S. states have reported cases of COVID-19, the distribution of the cases and deaths has remained heavily concentrated in a small number of states, and among a small number of counties within all states.
For instance, as of May 4, just 10 states account for 70% of all U.S. cases and 77% of all deaths. Together, New York and New Jersey alone account for 38% of all cases and 48% of total COVID-19 deaths.
ust five states—New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois, and California—account for 54% of all of the confirmed cases in the U.S. and 61% of all coronavirus deaths.
These state-level figures do not, however, adequately describe the concentrated nature of the spread of COVID-19.
As the first chart shows, the 30 counties with the most COVID-19 cases account for 50% of all the cases in the U.S. (and 57% of all deaths). That is, just 1% of the counties in the U.S. are responsible for half of the country’s coronavirus cases and more than half of the deaths.
Of those 30 counties, 24 are in the Northeast corridor between Philadelphia and Boston, the passageway served by a commuter railway system that runs through Manhattan. Overall, just 11% of the counties in the U.S. contain nearly 95% of all the COVID-19 deaths.
Just as important, as the second chart shows, 52% of all U.S. counties have had zero COVID-19 deaths as of May 4.
Also as of May 4, 13 states have deaths that remain unallocated to respective counties. At most, those allocations could reduce the number of zero-death counties by 2 percentage points.
The chart also illustrates that 66% of all U.S. counties have no more than one coronavirus death, 80% have five or fewer, 86% have 10 or fewer, and 89% have fewer than 15.
Put another way, only about 10% of the counties in the U.S. have more than 15 or more COVID-19 deaths, and throughout the epidemic, the spread of COVID has remained highly concentrated in a handful of geographic locations in the U.S.
Once again, there is only one way to see things and to disagree requires labeling
Once again, you label my personal views as labeling, and assume that I think my viewpoint is the only way to see things.
You will characterize things with your own sense as will most here, forgive me for wondering why a simple "I disagree" is not used more here and yes, I see phrases like "Really toxic stuff"..."Most of us get it, see the common sense"..."Their arrogant and self-centered worldview"...as condescending and a bloated sense of righteousness. And no, not looking for confrontation, but like you, just expressing an opinion about an opinion.
blah blah blah
Fair enough
This is a good read
Non political
https://erinbromage.wixsite.com/covid19/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
https://erinbromage.wixsite.com/covid19/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them/blockquote >
Thanks for posting Dr. Bromage's observations. She really makes the point that it's not just the proximity to someone who may be sick or asymptomatic & sick, but the duration & type of exposure. The fact that singing is significantly more contagious than talking or breathing was surprising (unless one had given it significant thought). The example of 60 sickened people out of a 64-person choir singing for 2.5 hours in an enclosed space was harsh; certainly explains why clubs w/live music are hotspots.Hard to find politics in useful facts unless one rejects all science.
Trump says coronavirus will disappear without a vaccine. Fauci has said the opposite.
https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Trump-says-coronavirus-will-disappear-w ithout-a-15257748.php
I would definitely take something Fauci said more seriously than Trump. Even though Fauci did not seem to predict the seriousness of this virus in his comments earlier this year, that doesn't make him less of an expert to me, it just shows me understanding what can or will happen with a new virus is difficult.
My question is, what if this does go away...like SARS did? SARS-CoV1 went away without a vaccine. Nobody has been infected with the original SARS since 2004. It went away.
Trump shouldn't say he knows this one will go away, Trump shouldn't say or do a lot of things.
There is chance that if Covid-19, SARS-CoV-2, follows the 2003 SARS-CoV-1...it could go away.
Maybe there are some comparisons out there between the two viruses that explains why it could or why it couldn't go away.
Your point is taken, Trump giving this kind of opinion is pure speculation or even wishful thinking. But at the same time, it is possible if history is any example.
Interesting numbers. From the Heritage Foundation so some might dismiss them but.
With many state and local governments starting to relax stay-at-home orders, it’s instructive to examine just how concentrated the spread of COVID-19 has been in the U.S.
Although all U.S. states have reported cases of COVID-19, the distribution of the cases and deaths has remained heavily concentrated in a small number of states, and among a small number of counties within all states.
For instance, as of May 4, just 10 states account for 70% of all U.S. cases and 77% of all deaths. Together, New York and New Jersey alone account for 38% of all cases and 48% of total COVID-19 deaths.
ust five states—New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois, and California—account for 54% of all of the confirmed cases in the U.S. and 61% of all coronavirus deaths.These state-level figures do not, however, adequately describe the concentrated nature of the spread of COVID-19.
As the first chart shows, the 30 counties with the most COVID-19 cases account for 50% of all the cases in the U.S. (and 57% of all deaths). That is, just 1% of the counties in the U.S. are responsible for half of the country’s coronavirus cases and more than half of the deaths.
Of those 30 counties, 24 are in the Northeast corridor between Philadelphia and Boston, the passageway served by a commuter railway system that runs through Manhattan. Overall, just 11% of the counties in the U.S. contain nearly 95% of all the COVID-19 deaths.
Just as important, as the second chart shows, 52% of all U.S. counties have had zero COVID-19 deaths as of May 4.
Also as of May 4, 13 states have deaths that remain unallocated to respective counties. At most, those allocations could reduce the number of zero-death counties by 2 percentage points.
The chart also illustrates that 66% of all U.S. counties have no more than one coronavirus death, 80% have five or fewer, 86% have 10 or fewer, and 89% have fewer than 15.
Put another way, only about 10% of the counties in the U.S. have more than 15 or more COVID-19 deaths, and throughout the epidemic, the spread of COVID has remained highly concentrated in a handful of geographic locations in the U.S.
Here is the link for this, there are some stories linked within and a couple charts accompanying the story:
https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/over-half-us-counties-have-had-no-covid-19-deaths
tbomike, I don't think you yourself have looked at heritage foundation stories very often, right? Hey, let's look at all the different angles on this...left, right, middle, independent, good information can come from different sources to provide insight. And then we have to sort through the BS too, because it's out there. Breaking down the statistics and demographic interests me.
According to the NY Times, 35% of Covid deaths in the US have come from nursing home facilities.
I remember when I was a kid there was a stigma with nursing homes, I remember my grandma saying in the 1980s "Don't put me in a home". Elderly did not want to go to the limited number of "homes" that were around back then. Instead many choose to stay in their own houses or moved in with family who could look after them. By the time the mid 90s rolled around, my other grandma willingly went to a new nursing home facility many of her friends were choosing to go to.
So back during the Hong Kong flu, comparing that to now, there was no widespread senior living industry like there is now. And how unfortunate and sad when this virus gets into those buildings of vulnerable populations of our parents and grandparents. Just as we have higher density population centers now in our country, we also have more congregate living centers now. And, which has been noted already, our life expectancy has increased, but that doesn't mean we are a healthier population as a whole, because we are not healthier.
My mind just wonders about all these things, like if Covid-19 had hit in 1968/69 would the deaths been any different than what they estimate was 100,000 back then or would the death rate remained about the same? And by the same token, if the Hong Kong flu from 68/69 had hit now, would it produce similar infections and deaths to what we have now because our society is more vulnerable now than it was then?
Life is different now, society has changed, our vulnerabilities have changed.
NYT story on nursing home infections and deaths. Nearly 20 states have half or more of their deaths stemming from nursing homes.
I'm not making any comment implied or otherwise, just submitting the data.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/09/us/coronavirus-cases-nursing-homes-us.html
[Edited on 5/10/2020 by nebish]
This is a good read
Non political
https://erinbromage.wixsite.com/covid19/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them/blockquote >
Excellent. Very informative. Reinforces the use of masks.
One thing to mention, it doesn't take away from the essence of the restaurant infection example, I think the story appeared in the NYT, the 4 people who became infected dining at the known infected person's table could've been infected at some point earlier due to previous exposure and contact with A1.
Otherwise, I hope everyone reads that to get an understanding of what risks you put yourself at in what settings and how the virus might or might not spread.
Glad you guys like it, I found it very informative.
I don’t think he mentioned one of the 1st (if not the 1st) known outbreaks in the Boston area. There was the infamous Biogen meeting. One guy travelled from Italy and infected several others in the meeting, some of the then got on a plane and travelled elsewhere. Just google Biogen meeting for details
Today there is a report of an outbreak in Pasadena at a birthday party- some guy was coughing without a mask
My fear is as we relax, we forget social distancing and masks- then boom.
It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that someone travels from a rural location with few or no cases to a meeting somewhere, gets infected, goes home and attends church/ meeting/ party whatever, then an outbreak starts. Indoor Crowded places make me nervous. My synagogue has services on Zoom for that reason.
Glad you guys like it, I found it very informative.
I don’t think he mentioned one of the 1st (if not the 1st) known outbreaks in the Boston area. There was the infamous Biogen meeting. One guy travelled from Italy and infected several others in the meeting, some of the then got on a plane and travelled elsewhere. Just google Biogen meeting for details
Today there is a report of an outbreak in Pasadena at a birthday party- some guy was coughing without a mask
My fear is as we relax, we forget social distancing and masks- then boom.
It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that someone travels from a rural location with few or no cases to a meeting somewhere, gets infected, goes home and attends church/ meeting/ party whatever, then an outbreak starts. Indoor Crowded places make me nervous. My synagogue has services on Zoom for that reason.
Good post. Thx.
It just goes to show how easily transmission is. These days I'm going out to the bare minimal places I have to go. Whenever I do I always wear a mask. I wish others would. One of my daughter's friends went to the store the other day & said she got the death stare from others at the florist. She said she didn't know why because she said she's Covid free. BTW - the friend hasn't been tested.
The next month or so should give a good idea of impact of relaxing closures & the correlation to cases and deaths reported.
Blind leadin the blind round this place.
Fauci, Redfield, and Hahn are all in self quarantine. Pence is "distancing". But the rest of you schlepps get back to work! MAGA!!!
To all y'all, QUIT STARING AT ME.
Keep it on, man. Believe me we would stare at you worse if we could see your face! Damn, man you should sign up as an extra for The Walking Dead!
You did know that it's filmed in central Georgia?
Blind leadin the blind round this place.
Says the expert on infectious diseases.
"A worker infected 533 others with coronavirus at a factory in Ghana, president says"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/11/africa/ghana-factory-coronavirus-infection-intl/index.html
Granted it's Ghana and it's working dynamics are much different the U.S. but it's still something to consider.
"A worker infected 533 others with coronavirus at a factory in Ghana, president says"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/11/africa/ghana-factory-coronavirus-infection-intl/index.html
Granted it's Ghana and it's working dynamics are much different the U.S. but it's still something to consider.
That is pretty crazy! I've searched for some other sources with more detail.
Doubt that place had any safety measures in place.
Read Ghana GDP expected to fall to lowest level in 37 years.
4913 of our cases have come from meat packing plants as of May 1st.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6918e3.htm?s_cid=mm6918e3_x
