If you are going to do this, I think the Colorado Governor is right to give his local county and town leaders to act appropriately.
In the meantime, media piles on Georgia for opening hair salons and tattoo parlors when Colorado is doing the same. Difference? One has a Republican Governor and one has a Democrat Governor. Always playing gotta.
You pointed out the difference & it has nothing to do w/politics - GA isn't allowing counties/local leadership to make decisions based on pertinent data whereas CO is.
Data shows that African-Americans have been hit harder by COVID-19 than any other ethnicity & the mayor of Atlanta pointed to that as one reason she's concerned about re-opening there. Atlanta is more than 50% black according to 2020 census data (GA is 35% black) whereas CO is 4% black.
You are right, I did point out the difference. And also what I didn't say is that we know Georgia is going just beyond hair salons and tattoo parlors. So it isn't quite apples to apples, but the apples and oranges are on the same shelf at least.
I will admit, I am guilty of watching too much CNN and MSNBC. I'm a news junkie and those networks are good at what they do, it appeals to me. And I just get used to seeing stories of Republicans doing things wrong and Democrats being the saviors. It's just stories about how, ok, testing...Trump touts all these tests, whatever the total accumulated total is, he boasts about it. And the media, correctly I might add, points out that it is not per capita, it isn't comparable to our population size and that of other countries. But then at the very same time, one of Rachael Maddow's favorite things to do (tongue in cheek, as in she appears to like running the numbers but I'm not saying she takes enjoyment in it), she often shows how many total cases we have in the US, a very large number on whatever night she is showing it. Then she shows all the countries of Europe to show just how many more cases we have, like cherry pick European countries and add it up and we have more cases. Know what she doesn't do? Put it in per capita context or as a % of overall population. If she did that then the US would be in line with European infections, but that doesn't fit the narrative. Per capita testing is the issue, but per capita infection rate isn't discussed. Or the meat packing outbreaks. South Dakota of course. Everyone is going to report that it is such a huge outbreak...and the Governor is a Republican who hasn't implemented stay at home orders when everyone said she should have. But while the Smithfield outbreak in Souix Falls is a lead story...similar outbreaks, like the one in Greely Colorado that infected hundreds, or the 4 meat packing plants in PA that had to close due to coronavirus infections aren't reported or mentioned with the same frequency or dare I say enthusiasm because...well some states have Republican Governors and some states have Democrat Governors. And some media outlets, some journalists and some opinion news "entertainers" have leanings and bias one way or the other.
It's fine. I watch it. I enjoy the programs. I just see stuff like that and it comes across in some of the things I post here.
So when Debra Birx gets asked tattoo parlors or hair dressers reopening, she is asked about it related to Georgia. They could've just asked about those businesses in general and her feelings on that, but no they said it about Georgia, as if Georgia is the only state doing this. Point being Georgia has a stupid Republican Governor and the other states, well they might have a smart Democrat Governor.
That is all.
Your point about risk groups among certain populations and the increased vulnerability they have to this virus is worrisome. Colorado may only have 4% black population, but they have a 22% Hispanic population. Hispanics in NYC made up 34% of the deaths (higher than blacks). So Colorado has vulnerable populations too.
[Edited on 4/22/2020 by nebish]
So when Debra Birx gets asked tattoo parlors or hair dressers reopening, she is asked about it related to Georgia. They could've just asked about those businesses in general and her feelings on that, but no they said it about Georgia, as if Georgia is the only state doing this. Point being Georgia has a stupid Republican Governor and the other states, well they might have a smart Democrat Governor.
I don't own a TV so don't watch any of the interview shows & I limit my news reading to twice/day. You have much broader knowledge as to specific reporters, questions asked, & media bias so I defer to you on that.
I do think the media misses fundamental questions. For example, I didn't see any analysis of the demand side of re-opening. Sure, a governor can say certain businesses can re-open but that doesn't mean the business owners & patrons are going to make it happen. Models from China show how the virus is transmitted in restaurants from one table to people 3 tables away. Restauranteurs are saying no way are they re-opening w/o testing for staff & patrons. Salons, spas, & tat shops require close contact - the opposite of the social distancing we know has flattened the curve. Not all business owners are willing to expose their staff or patrons to that. More importantly, how many customers need a manicure, tat, or restaurant meal so as to risk getting a deadly virus & passing it on? So how big a deal is it that a governor allows re-opening of some businesses?
The biggest question to me is why those businesses? If the point is to jump start the economy, those businesses are unlikely to have a big impact.
You've correctly identified one of my flaws, watching TV! We all have vices.
You are right in that some or even most of these businesses who do open are going to have low level sales and activity. It's not going to Have much of an impact from a tax revenue aspect for the states either. Some of these self employed business owners say they have no money and for all the safety nets and aid either can't access or don't qualify. I've heard some call into our local radio show. People say they are dying financially. They might not care their income is going to be a fraction of what normal is. Right now it is zero.
I did see that restaurant diagram yesterday of how a Chinese family infected other diners.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/health/airflow-coronavirus-restaurants.html
One thing I found interesting though is none of the 8 servers working the room got infected.
And the only ones who did get infected were immediately next to the seeders' table.
Clearly there is risk...there is some risk in the currently permitted activities under stay home order. Risk is going to increase as activity increases.
It might give some optimism though that by removing tables and spacing customers apart it reduces that otherwise increased risk, again since in the example only close tables got infected and there were a total of 81 other people (including the 8 workers) in the room that day who didn't get infected. And given the people at table A may've infected themselves before entering the restaurant, still 5 people got it. Will precautions restaurants take be enough? Will customers go? Will servers want to work? Would I go? I would consider eating at a large outdoor patio with spaced apart tables. But not now, not soon, at some point I will. Just have to weigh the risk and make a judgement.
You've correctly identified one of my flaws, watching TV! We all have vices.
You are right in that some or even most of these businesses who do open are going to have low level sales and activity. It's not going to Have much of an impact from a tax revenue aspect for the states either. Some of these self employed business owners say they have no money and for all the safety nets and aid either can't access or don't qualify. I've heard some call into our local radio show. People say they are dying financially. They might not care their income is going to be a fraction of what normal is. Right now it is zero.
Watching TV isn't a vice. You're probably one of the best-informed posters. I've just always been a BBC-NPR/newspaper person.
The updates re COVID-19 programs from the bar association I get say employee relief is working & includes workers who normally wouldn't qualify for unemployment benefits. The relief programs for the businesses themselves aren't as successful.
From the interviews I've read & granted it's a small sample, business owners of the type allowed to open have expressed more concerns about risk than money. Most say their employees are covered through one of the many programs & have income through July 31. They're more concerned that there's no testing for who might be contagious & have to shut down in days or weeks so they'd rather maintain the status quo. They also have start-up costs that they don't want to see evaporate if they have to close again IF they can even get supplies. Some have just said they can't give a manicure, pedicure, or massage & be 6' away from their client & they know social distancing is what's saved us. Retailers would just be selling off current inventory as orders for summer/fall merchandise haven't been placed or have been cancelled. In cities like Atlanta, major department stores aren't going to re-open unless the headquarters opens stores nationwide; Neiman Marcus is set to file for bankruptcy this week (less to do w/COVID-19 than overleveraging).
The flip side is small businesses along the GA coast that are eager to open for tourists as Rusty mentioned.
When I said these types of businesses aren't going to give the economic boost that Trump craves, I meant the stock market. A tee shirt shop on the beach & a tat parlor in Atlanta aren't making a dent there.
Up here in the Watertown, NY area a local grocery store chain of some size and prominence was the location for volunteer anti-body testing yesterday. Public Health officials randomly asked patrons as they entered the store if they would like to volunteer to be tested.
I don't know the exact number, but the local news outlet that reported it and filmed some of the folks doing the testing i believe indicated the health officials goal was a sample size of 1,000 tests. There appeared to be lines of people waiting to take the test.
One thing I'm sure we're all witnessing beyond the death and sickness and economic destruction is the coming together by a lot of people to fight this pandemic. It's encouraging to me and I'm sure many others out there too....And it's not lip service on my part, I really mean it.
NY rescinds do-not-resuscitate guideline during coronavirus pandemic
Thank you for providing accurate information. Not sure why that particular topic was posted on this thread other than trolling. It has nothing to do w/states re-opening certain businesses.
The model used by Trump's experts indicates that no state should open before May 1 & most should wait longer. Specifically, based on current cases, Georgia shouldn't re-open until June 19, South Carolina June 5, & Colorado May 25. The model is based on the assumption states will have measures in place - aggressive testing, contact tracing, isolation, limits on the size of gatherings. If states don't have those protections in pace, a resurgence of cases is projected.
Projections for every state:
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
It's not crap, it is the IHME model right? That is the model the White House and it's task force team often cites and uses. And the IHME model has been the most reliable in offering some estimates and guidance.
I'm not asserting that the states must follow the White House guidelines to a T in opening, but essentially, no state planning on opening is following the White House guidelines.
[Edited on 4/22/2020 by nebish]
Pence just said something to the effect "the best thing you can do to reopen America is to keep doing what you are doing". And he's right. A bunch of states are close and getting close. It's what Trump should've been saying.
It's not crap, it is the IHME model right? That is the model the White House and it's task force team often cites and uses. And the IHME model has been the most reliable in offering some estimates and guidance.
I linked the IHME model projected dates in my post. They were last updated yesterday.
Trump just said that he told the GA governor that he strongly disagreed w/his decision to open certain facilities, which are in violation of the phase one guidelines based in part on the IHME model. "It's just too soon. I think it's too soon."
It's not crap, it is the IHME model right? That is the model the White House and it's task force team often cites and uses. And the IHME model has been the most reliable in offering some estimates and guidance.
I linked the IHME model projected dates in my post. They were last updated yesterday.
Trump just said that he told the GA governor that he strongly disagreed w/his decision to open certain facilities, which are in violation of the phase one guidelines based in part on the IHME model. "It's just too soon. I think it's too soon."
Yes and thank you. Rule of thumb, never listen to ABBGMTTB.
Would be nice option if members here who start a thread could moderate their own thread and remove trolling posts.
Trump hinted that yesterday he was going to be speaking the Georgia governor. That is a fairly big step for Trump to reprimand a fellow Republican Governor. Have to think some members of the team got to him on that. The task force team tries to keep Trump centered, sometimes it works.
It's not crap, it is the IHME model right? That is the model the White House and it's task force team often cites and uses. And the IHME model has been the most reliable in offering some estimates and guidance.
I linked the IHME model projected dates in my post. They were last updated yesterday.
Trump just said that he told the GA governor that he strongly disagreed w/his decision to open certain facilities, which are in violation of the phase one guidelines based in part on the IHME model. "It's just too soon. I think it's too soon."
Yes and thank you. Rule of thumb, never listen to ABBGMTTB.
Would be nice option if members here who start a thread could moderate their own thread and remove trolling posts.
Trump hinted that yesterday he was going to be speaking the Georgia governor. That is a fairly big step for Trump to reprimand a fellow Republican Governor. Have to think some members of the team got to him on that. The task force team tries to keep Trump centered, sometimes it works.
You beat me to it. You are correct. No doubt that Fauci or others probably got through to MAGA guy. Have no doubt that left to his own, Trump would have green lighted Kemp in GA for reopening. He's been toutiing the gov in last few days for all the good things the gov does...in usual Trump dialog. Reality set in, and the light bulb went off that if things go badly & Trump's been backing this effort, then it makes Trump look bad or worse than he already looks.
Think about this. MAGA prez has done nothing to dissuade those red hats protesting at state capitals. He's even given them cover. Even said they are practicing social distancing which pictures, in many instance show to be false. So how does Trump balance supporting protests but now advising Gov Kemp not to move forward? MAGA prez wants it both ways.
Trump hinted that yesterday he was going to be speaking the Georgia governor. That is a fairly big step for Trump to reprimand a fellow Republican Governor. Have to think some members of the team got to him on that. The task force team tries to keep Trump centered, sometimes it works.
Yes, it works sometimes. Sometimes, it doesn't. Now that controlled studies of chloroquine have progressed to the point where some have been halted due to cardiac problems in patients as well as inefficacy, Trump, Fox, & Dr. Oz have been silent on that "miracle drug" about which Trump had a great "feeling." Of course, that didn't stop the administration from firing the doctor responsible for drug allocation yesterday for not making the unproven chloroquine widely available. He announced he'll be firing a whistleblower complaint this week.
The man simply can't stand to be proven wrong. If he'd just not spew nonsense that can easily be contradicted, he'd be better off - we all would be. It's incredible to see such misplaced vindictiveness & vengeance in an adult man much less POTUS.
Meanwhile, in the state of Georgia ... Lindsey Graham and even Donald Trump start to sound like the voice of reason. It's early, but when they make the movie - I say that Will Ferrell plays Brian Kemp. But only because Don Knotts is deceased.
I say that Will Ferrell plays Brian Kemp.
That made me laugh just picturing it!
In NH, there was a daily increase of about 50 documented cases per day
Late last week there were protests at the state Capitol to re open the state (we have a Republican Governor, fwiw)
From the photos, people were NOT adhering to distancing recomendations
Today we had 98 new cases, almost double the prior daily average.
maybe it's a coincidence, maybe not
regardless, too soon to relax restrictions
Chain mentioned NY's random antibody test a few posts back, here's a story:
One in five who were tested for antibodies in New York City had them.
About 21 percent of about 1,300 people in New York City who were screened for virus antibodies tested positive, Governor Andrew M. Cuomo said on Thursday.
The results come from a state program that randomly tested 3,000 supermarket customers across New York State this week. Nearly 14 percent of those tests came back positive, he said.
If those numbers translate to the true incidence of the virus, they would mean that more than 1.7 million people in New York City, and more than 2.4 million people statewide, have already been infected. These numbers are far greater than the 250,000 confirmed cases of the virus itself that the state has recorded.
Hours before Mr. Cuomo’s presentation, a top New York City health official cautioned against making too much of the usefulness of the test results in making critical decisions about social distancing and reopening the economy, particularly in identifying immunity. The official said the tests “may produce false negative or false positive results,” pointing to “significant voids” in using the science to pinpoint immunity.
Mr. Cuomo declined to speculate further on what the preliminary data might mean. He said its main use would to provide a baseline for tracking changes in the infection rate. (Supermarket customers do not constitute a random sample of the population.)
By the time New York City confirmed its first case on March 1, thousands of infections were already silently spreading through the city, according to a model of the disease by researchers at Northeastern University.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/us/coronavirus-live-news-coverage.html#link-5ac27645
Hard to make too much of this, in fact we are warned not to make too much of it. If the tests were accurate it certainly sheds new light on how many people may've already been touched by this virus which then does effect all the other metrics on death and hospitalization ratios.
Yet you just bang the same tiresome drum ... with lies, of course
Both GOP and Dem governors have said there isn’t enough testing
I’m on the front lines of a state with a GOP Governor and we don’t have enough tests. In fact, we have the least per capital in all of NE. We can’t get the supplies.
Fauci said we don’t have enough tests
There isn’t enough testing done. We have the desire and mechanics to do it. There are not enough materials
Fact
[Edited on 4/24/2020 by stormyrider]
Alright! So, here in Georgia you can finally get that tattoo, haircut and even a massage before heading out to bowl or watch a movie! I'm thinking about hitting a few of these establishments today, as I have never seen 6' long scissors or tattoo needles ... or a masseuse with 6' long arms! Thank you, Governor Simp!
In Tennessee:
https://www.wate.com/news/tennessee/list-which-tennessee-state-parks-will-reopen-april-24/
Too soon?
In Blount County, where the article references, there have been 2 new cases since the 9th. (one new one each of the last two days) The State Parks all being closed was extreme to begin with. The Great Smokies have been closed to all access since March 23.
Yesterday the total for all cases, including recovered, was 8,266 with highest concentrations being around the metropolitan areas of Nashville and Memphis. Knox County has had 206 cases with 29 cases currently active. There are 95 counties in Tennessee.
I think that certain areas can have restrictions eased. I realize that one shelter-in-place orders are lifted, people will start to travel and visit other areas. Being quarantined for a month or more will make you restless.
Myself, I would like to go out to dinner and go caveman on a table full of Mexican food, but I'll probably be somewhat on the "wait and see" side...
I hear ya, Alan. For purposes of perspective - the day after our governor made these decisions to reopen, Glynn County (home of the "Golden Isles") added 2 new CV cases and suffered its first death. Come on in! The water's fine! I'll point out that we were clean as a whistle before the annual Spring Break pilgrimage. If anybody needs me, I'll be indoors all summer.
I’m on the front lines of a state with a GOP Governor and we don’t have enough tests. In fact, we have the least per capital in all of NE. We can’t get the supplies.
There isn’t enough testing done. We have the desire and mechanics to do it. There are not enough materials
Fact
@stormy, forgive me, but I'm confused on testing. Are there 2 types of tests - 1 for diagnosis & 1 for antibodies?
When you & the other experts say not enough tests, you mean diagnostic? They exist but they're not being made fast enough or distributed? They're supplied to the hospitals directly from the manufacturer? or are they rationed by the state?
I read that hold-ups were due to a lack of cotton for nasal swabs and the wrong size vial for the sample. That seems insane.
You & your wife stay safe!
“We’re also going to be switching over to plastic silverware and plates, so that we don’t have to touch the dirty dishes as often, we don’t have to wash their dishes, we just throw everything straight in the trash. Wipe down all the tables with sanitizer and bleach, make sure everything is cleaned after every guest, that way we can ensure a clean meal as possible for everybody,” Roberts said.
I think it's helpful our friends here post little glimpse inside their states. I know a little about some other states, but only pay close attention to Ohio. I know a little more about Colorado because I live vicariously through a few friends I have living there (great state!).
The above quote is from Alan's link. I had thought how restaurants might handle their glasses...when you get a draft beer afterwards sometimes you just see them dunk it in a tub of soapy water, dunk it in a tub of clean water before putting it drying it in a machine. Maybe the high heat of the drying machine kills virus, but would people feel comfortable this stuff is clean enough. So I can see going to more disposable plates, glasses, fork, knife and spoons. Good on one hand, not so good on another hand.
Regarding Glynn County (Golden Isles) and 2 new cases and a death after opening, due to the incubation period and time leading to getting tested I'd be willing to bet those people were infected several days to a week or two before the opening.
There are going to be new cases when states relax and try to reopen. There are going go to be new cases if states did not relax and reopen. We have had a few grocery store employees here get infected. There is some level of business operation and activity now before opening.
The key thing is going to be with any new infections, is there a capacity in the healthcare system to accommodate new hospitalizations? 20-25% of people infected will need hospitalization. So the governors and health professionals are going to have to know what is available and monitor cases and behavior to see what is happening.
When we get reports of new cases after relaxing and opening of new cases, that alone should not dictate whether or not relaxed status and partial openings get suspended or withdrawn. It depends the point which those new infections reach that will determine what happens next. People are going to have to be responsible and careful when they go out and do things, take precautions and limit exposure to the best extent possible and be respectful others around you and your friends and family at home.
Ohio tests are still limited, but apparently we do have enough to expand the criteria of who gets tests. Here is Ohio's priority for testing. Priority 3 is a new category they can now begin to test people from.
The availability and number of tests is only going to get better as time goes on. This week our Governor said he expects "significant" increases in testing in the coming weeks. There isn't much of antibody testing here yet, some businesses have some agencies, but there are still warnings about reliability and accuracy of the antibody tests.
The Governor had said a couple times he would release Ohio's plan for opening and guidelines for businesses yesterday. Then yesterday he said he didn't recall saying it would be yesterday and instead will be announced on Monday. Last week he said businesses should prepare for some limited opening and relaxing May 1st, but has yet to offer any details beyond that.
Ohio does have about a week's worth of declining cases and hospitalization rate is slowing. Our recent spikes are due to larger testing of prison populations.
Regarding Glynn County (Golden Isles) and 2 new cases and a death after opening, due to the incubation period and time leading to getting tested I'd be willing to bet those people were infected several days to a week or two before the opening. ...
Correct as rain, I'm sure you are. Just pointing out that this fire is far from extinguished.
I’m on the front lines of a state with a GOP Governor and we don’t have enough tests. In fact, we have the least per capital in all of NE. We can’t get the supplies.
There isn’t enough testing done. We have the desire and mechanics to do it. There are not enough materials
Fact
@stormy, forgive me, but I'm confused on testing. Are there 2 types of tests - 1 for diagnosis & 1 for antibodies?
When you & the other experts say not enough tests, you mean diagnostic? They exist but they're not being made fast enough or distributed? They're supplied to the hospitals directly from the manufacturer? or are they rationed by the state?
I read that hold-ups were due to a lack of cotton for nasal swabs and the wrong size vial for the sample. That seems insane.
You & your wife stay safe!
There are 2 types of tests
The diagnostic test - swab, is to tell if you ARE infected
the antibody testtells if you had the disease and recovered
Both are important. The scary thing is that people can be infectious before symptoms develop or without even ever having them
The antibody test is still new and not widely available. There are many unapproved tests people are doing but I wouldn't trust them.
The diagnostic test, which is what I was referring to, as I believe was Fauci and the Governors, is available but there are not enough so we can't test enough people.
There are shortages of swabs and cartridges, depending upon where you live. We are getting our cartridges from FEMA but there aren't enough to give everyone all they need. They are giving priority to states with more cases, which is understandable but still a problem.
Thanks
The antibody test is still new and not widely available. There are many unapproved tests people are doing but I wouldn't trust them.
The diagnostic test, which is what I was referring to, as I believe was Fauci and the Governors, is available but there are not enough so we can't test enough people. There are shortages of swabs and cartridges, depending upon where you live. We are getting our cartridges from FEMA but there aren't enough to give everyone all they need. They are giving priority to states with more cases, which is understandable but still a problem.
Got it, thanks. States are thinking about opening up even though they don't have enough diagnostic tests to determine if people - asymptomatic or not - have it. Makes no sense.
My confusion came from Cuomo's announcement of an antibody test developed in NY & tested on grocery store shoppers throughout the state that really isn't useful yet.
