^ Strikes me as significant data - maybe it is carried in meat. Or some connect with meat. Supposedly started in animal matter. Worth checking up on anyway.
If true we better hope old luke isn't serving his BFF Dickey any tainted BBQ.
Here is what has happened in Ohio:
May 1 – outpatient elective medical procedures allowed to resume (includes dental and veterinary)
May 4 – construction, manufacturing and distribution that had halted, could resume. Also general office environments can reopen.
May 12 – retail stores and service companies reopen (retail had been allowed to do appointment only from May 1st until now).
May 15 – restaurants and bars open for outside dining only – additionally, hair salons, barbershops, day spas, nail salons, tanning facilities, massage parlors, tattoo and piercing shops allowed to open
May 21 – inside restaurant dining, state park camp grounds (some private camp grounds with long-term or annually leased spots have been allowed to open)
May 22 – horse racing can resume without spectators (racinos or casinos will not open)
May 26 – in person BMV, gyms and fitness centers (a lawsuit had been filed on behalf of gyms to allow them to reopen). Non-contact or limited contact sports leagues (like tennis and golf) can resume. Public pools can open (but not amusement parks or water parks).
May 31 – daycare
TBD – higher-contact sports leagues (like soccer, basketball), dance studios, outdoor recreation, casinos and tourism
Ohio House of Representatives passed bill to limit our Health Director's orders to no more than 14 days, only a bipartisan legislative committee could allow orders for longer. Senate plans to vote next week. Governor Dewine threatens a veto (not enough votes to overcome veto). The current modified “Stay Safe Ohio” runs until May 29th is filled with exceptions, but still says individuals are “ordered to stay at home or their place of residence except as allowed in this order”. At this point I resent still being "ordered" to stay home.
As of tomorrow (5/15) up to 90% of the Ohio economy will be allowed to open.
Ohio is only conducting an average of 4640 tests per day, but average daily testing total is up 1000 from just ten days ago. Governor says we have triple that capacity and actual tests will continue to ramp up. Per his previous comments we were supposed to be testing 7200-15000 daily now, he says we have the capacity to do that many but did not explain the disconnect (same disconnect that has befallen national testing). Ohio is making our own reagent and swabs.
We are averaging about 600 new cases a day right now. At our peak in late April we were averaging about 900 new cases a day. 11 of our last 14 days have seen numbers lower than the prior day, but our overall downward trajectory has stalled and plateaued. We get a bump up and then the numbers fall off a little, then another bump up and a couple more days of fall off, but it is mostly flat at this point.
Our number of patients currently hospitalized has been dropping anywhere from 2-9 people per day. April 22nd and 23rd we had over 1100 people in the hospital. The numbers are coming in about 1000 now with some totals showing in the 900s before revisions adjust it slightly upward.
We had 510 to 520 people in ICU in late April. These figures have been steadily dropping as well to mid/upper 300s in ICU on any given day now.
My county is 7th in the state for cases. We actually had a peak a week to ten days ago, but the cases have quickly dropped in recent days. Our current 7 day average for daily cases of 18.5 is the lowest it has since things started ramping up in early April. We admit 1-2 new patients per day in our local hospitals. Deaths in my county have peaked in the last several days with 5-6 per day. The last couple days show that is declining so far. We are 4th in the state for deaths. Almost 70% of our deaths were from long term care facilities and 99% of deaths in my county were said to have co-morbidity/underlying health problems.
I run my own spreadsheets so I can better track trends in the coming weeks as we open up. I have no expectation if we can or can't do this, will have to see where it goes.
[Edited on 5/15/2020 by nebish]
One number that does clear up some of the other statistics on Ohio's case count is % of positive/negative test results.
Our positive test rate has hit a low of 7.7% over the last 7 days averaged. Eight of our last ten days have had positive test rates in single digits. At our mid-April high we were getting positives at a 20-30% rate.
Hopefully this remains steady or even goes down more as testing increases. That should tell more than just looking at daily case increases.
One number that does clear up some of the other statistics on Ohio's case count is % of positive/negative test results.
Our positive test rate has hit a low of 7.7% over the last 7 days averaged. Eight of our last ten days have had positive test rates in single digits. At our mid-April high we were getting positives at a 20-30% rate.
Hopefully this remains steady or even goes down more as testing increases. That should tell more than just looking at daily case increases.
I'm not sure how important that piece of data is. As more testing becomes available, you would expect those additional tests going to people without symptoms, who more often than not will test negative. You would expect that percentage to go down.
What would be a good sign is new cases going down dispite additional testing.
I'm not sure how important that piece of data is. As more testing becomes available, you would expect those additional tests going to people without symptoms, who more often than not will test negative. You would expect that percentage to go down.
What would be a good sign is new cases going down dispite additional testing.
Eventually that would be true. How fast Ohio expands it's tests will play a role. Right now just under 5000 a day isn't a lot to go around yet for people without symptoms other than high risk workers. If private companies are acquiring their own tests for associates not sure how or if those will get reported to local health departments and ultimately the state.
Most of the experts say cases will go up with opening and activity, some think dramatically so. Although Georgia is proving that theory wrong so far with cases dropping 3 weeks into their open.
Although Georgia is proving that theory wrong so far with cases dropping 3 weeks into their open.
This is where the data falls through the cracks for me. I'd want to track the # of patrons of re-opened businesses against the # of new cases. There mere fact that businesses are open doesn't mean they're being patronized. As Rusty has reported, the beach shops/eateries are open & seemed to have customers. Meanwhile, the mayors of three of GA's largest cities continue to urge people to remain home.
If you know of any stats that track cases v. people still at home & people venturing out, please post. As it is, some at home cases are never reported if the symptoms are mild & the person is never tested/reported.
[Edited on 5/15/2020 by cyclone88]
Well, see here we go again...little boyTrumpie, AKA anti-science, anti-anyone-who-is-smarter-than-he-is-because-his-ego-is-more-fragile-than-an-eggshell-and-he-can't-read-past-the-first-grade-"See Spot Run" books fires anyone who knows more than he does....which, come to think of it is very likely everyone except his drooling knuckle-dragging supporters and his sissy syncophants.....many will die from this "hoax"
Although Georgia is proving that theory wrong so far with cases dropping 3 weeks into their open.
This is where the data falls through the cracks for me. I'd want to track the # of patrons of re-opened businesses against the # of new cases. There mere fact that businesses are open doesn't mean they're being patronized. As Randy has reported, the beach shops/eateries are open & seemed to have customers. Meanwhile, the mayors of three of GA's largest cities continue to urge people to remain home.
If you know of any stats that track cases v. people still at home & people venturing out, please post. As it is, some at home cases are never reported if the symptoms are mild & the person is never tested/reported.
Wisconsin will give us the answer we need in about 3 weeks.
Although Georgia is proving that theory wrong so far with cases dropping 3 weeks into their open.
This is where the data falls through the cracks for me. I'd want to track the # of patrons of re-opened businesses against the # of new cases. There mere fact that businesses are open doesn't mean they're being patronized. As Randy has reported, the beach shops/eateries are open & seemed to have customers. Meanwhile, the mayors of three of GA's largest cities continue to urge people to remain home.
If you know of any stats that track cases v. people still at home & people venturing out, please post. As it is, some at home cases are never reported if the symptoms are mild & the person is never tested/reported.
I have not seen that kind of comparison. Not sure what local news stories in Georgia may be reporting.
We won't see the cell phone data that some officials do see (I don't think that is disclosed any way is it?), but maybe we can look at traffic data from Georgia's department of transportation. I'm not interested enough to do that even in my own state, but I do think some traffic data might be able to be compared.
We don't know. As you say, just because businesses and places are allowed to open doesn't mean all will and just because people are able to go there doesn't mean all will - I agree. But it must be true that while all or some will not, a portion of them certainly will. How large is that group? Don't know. But the fact that the group trying to open and do more stuff exists and are out there doing it should mean comparing a relative lock-down condition from say 4-5 weeks ago to now should offer a contrast. Many people will be out interacting and engaging in personal and business contact...how many, what percentage? Don't know that is being calculated on a widespread reportable basis.
I suppose data could be manipulated. I was actually surprised that cases would drop as reopening are allowed to occur....almost sounds like right-wing spin. I am fully prepared to see at least mini-spikes and hot spots pop up, it only seemed logical and natural it would. Having cases go down while opening up seems illogical and a strange coincidence.
It's all new territory...learning on the fly.
I live in southeast (coastal) Georgia.
As a matter of fact, numbers of NEW cases are still rising - if only slightly. The media has apparently moved from hyping the disease to burying it. With most businesses open (no bars yet - churches? How would I even know?) it'll take about 3 weeks to see any new surge. Here's the rub on that: someone from New York comes here, feels symptoms, gets tested (positive) - that person shows up as a new case in New York. In my opinion, it'll be several weeks before any type of victory can be declared. I'll be holed up - masking up for any errands.
We won't see the cell phone data that some officials do see (I don't think that is disclosed any way is it?)
The NYT publishes cell phone data as it's available (daily? weekly?). So far, it tracks what types of locations are getting the most visits & when they occur.
These could be fun to play around with:
https://www.safegraph.com/dashboard/reopening-the-economy-foot-traffic?s=US&d=05-12-2020&i=all
Here's the rub on that: someone from New York comes here, feels symptoms, gets tested (positive) - that person shows up as a new case in New York. In my opinion, it'll be several weeks before any type of victory can be declared. I'll be holed up - masking up for any errands.
Good point about where tourists are sickened in one state show up as new cases in their home state.
Wasn't victory already declared even though nothing has changed except there are no more daily briefings? I'm w/you. There's nowhere I want to go right now - masked walks in Central Park practicing social distancing is about it for me. Virtually all summer music & film venues have been canceled & the gym in my building remains closed per the co-op board. I still work from home w/no desire to rush back to the office.
I live in southeast (coastal) Georgia.
As a matter of fact, numbers of NEW cases are still rising - if only slightly. The media has apparently moved from hyping the disease to burying it. With most businesses open (no bars yet - churches? How would I even know?) it'll take about 3 weeks to see any new surge. Here's the rub on that: someone from New York comes here, feels symptoms, gets tested (positive) - that person shows up as a new case in New York. In my opinion, it'll be several weeks before any type of victory can be declared. I'll be holed up - masking up for any errands.
Yes, I do see that now upon looking up local news site.
Axios does say that Georgia's cases are down 12% week over week.
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-cases-map-high-risk-states-8ceeaa05-cc07-4e8b-b9f4-df3a3315f143.html
11Alive NBC affiliate does show on average about 30 more cases over a current 14 day period compared to one prior for Georgia. Hospitalizations have decreased by 50+ and deaths have dropped by about 4-5 current 14 day (5/1-5/14) to prior (4/17-4/30).
https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/real-time-updates-coronavirus-in-georgia-may-14/85-9926a53e-01dc-4a66-aaf9-11ab64e16db9
What will also make interpretation of the stats tough is that even though states are "open", some business have stayed shut and many people are still mostly at home. People's behavior may make it look like re-opening was a success and safe when we really don't know
To be honest, I find the NEW CASE numbers to be misleading - even a bit non-useful. This is an accumulation number that includes EVERY case since day 1. We've only had one death here (Glynn County) but the number of cases keeps stacking up. I am sure that some have completely recovered. Weird thing is that the current "count" keeps going up or down by 1. Not sure if they're adjusting for mis-diagnosis' or what.
I see the new case numbers, the daily increase or decrease, to be very relevant and useful. The cumulative total figure since day 1 means little to me. In a historical reference sense it serves a purpose to see where the virus has gone, but it is backwards looking. The new daily cases says where the situation is currently. The only total that is impactful and of course disturbing is the death figure. The number of hospitalizations day-over-day, number in ICU, number on ventilators that is all very helpful information when looking at trends. You can average them over given periods, you can get % of increase/decrease, you can see out of the norm highs and lows due to data dumps or reporting snags. This is why I wanted to have all Ohio's data in one place that I could see at any time instead of having to search for it and then run some calculations off of how a certain site was reporting it. I collect data from the coronavirus.ohio.gov site along with data from Cleveland.com, the businessjournaldaily.com and covidtracking.com
I like looking at hospitalizations, not only because I work in the hospital
In NH, access to testing has changed over time and is changing still. More new cases will be picked up as more tests are available, so a perceived increase may not be reflective of a real change. The number of sick people theoretically would be independent of test availability. Assuming the virulence of the virus is unchanged, it is a good measure of how much is out there, imo
I look at new cases, active cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Those numbers pretty much tell you where you are at now. From those you can tell the percent of confirmed active cases per population, if the hospitals are overwhelmed, and if things are getting better or worse. My county finally started releasing the number recovered, so now I know that there are 1.2 active confirmed cases per 10,000 people in my county, which is a pretty low ratio unless you consider that you'd probably have 2 people with it at a large concert or sporting event. Of course, there are likely many other that have it but never got tested. Very few hospitalizations here as well. We've been very fortunate, and as much as I like to be cautious it seems like most things in my area could be opened up. I would not have the same attitude if I lived in NYC however.
Interactive national map with all counties color-coded to show where cases are declining or increasing:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/graphic-tracking-coronavirus-infections-us/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src ="ngp::cmp=editorial::add=SpecialEdition_20200515&rid=910A3A0C804D1C7F8D5B2B273F0E8738"
Finally got a haircut today. And here in Ohio Governor Dewine just lifted the remaining stay at home order. About time.
And here. While this is from Italy but lots of states here have very similar age breakdown. I believe Massachusetts avg age of death is 82 and Florida very similar. End the lockdowns now. So why all this lunacy acting like we are all at risk? What a load of bs.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106372/coronavirus-death-rate-by-age-group-italy/
No...just the 82 year olds, who friggin BUILT this country.
Interactive national map with all counties color-coded to show where cases are declining or increasing:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/graphic-tracking-coronavirus-infections-us/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src ="ngp::cmp=editorial::add=SpecialEdition_20200515&rid=910A3A0C804D1C7F8D5B2B273F0E8738"
We're decreasing here because everybody was told to stay home or risk getting it and die in 3 days. We saw the refrigerator morgue trucks with 800 bodies a day getting put in there. That scared people enough to stay home. Sometimes it has to get dramatic to make the point stay home and stop the spread.
The numbers here have followed the IMHE model so I think it will be true July 1 will be safe in metro NY, but they may open sooner. Right now quarantine extended till June 13. The model has been right so far, so the protesters should just wait and stop their demonstrations.
[Edited on 5/19/2020 by gina]
No...just the 82 year olds, who friggin BUILT this country.
Which we all know. And they still managed not to protect them very well.
Well here a statistic for you. Seven years ago my daughter had a miscarriage and lost her baby, or as republicans refer to it as a “late term abortion”. She gave birth last year to the only child she will ever have a beautiful baby girl. Her husband’s mother died of brain cancer when he was nineteen. My mother who was a nurse worked in infection control, she was only 82 and was at work the day before she was admitted to the ICU and was intubated and died three days later. My sister was a nurse and died when she was 32 from a staph infection she got from the hospital she worked at. My son is a diabetic and my husband has high blood pressure. My husband can still fit in the same suit we were married in so this is not an issue of obesity as well as my son. So my granddaughter only has one grandmother and that is me. Should I throw myself on the sword for Donald Trump’s stock market, a haircut, to go party at bar, go see a show? Anne Frank was isolated for over two years in an attic with 7 other people. If a child can endure that isolation should I cry because I can’t get my hair done? The pioneers were locked in their home for months during the winter, how about Valley Forge. Has this country become so weak that they are willing to sacrifice their own parents and grandparents for a haircut?
So truly if that is how you feel go to a Trump Rally, don't wear a mask. Go cruise around a hospital ICU with active virus patients without mask and then go to your family's house and cough in their faces. That way you get your haircut and sacrifice your parents and grandparents for the DT Stockmarket and consider yourself more of a patriot then the pioneers of this country or the healthcare workers who literally put their lives on the line to save people like you when you are sick and dying.
[Edited on 5/19/2020 by PattyG]
[Edited on 5/19/2020 by PattyG]
No...just the 82 year olds, who friggin BUILT this country.
Which we all know. And they still managed not to protect them very well.
That's not what you said.
Well here in Georgia:
https://nypost.com/2020/05/19/georgia-agency-bashed-for-using-erroneous-coronavirus-data/
This is ironic, I'm about to leave to get my hair cut at 7:15.
I will be wearing a mask...I assume as required in Ohio, the lady cutting my hair will be as well. I will report back if it is of such interest.
My wife is 60 with a weakened immune system to having RA and the drugs she takes for it. Up until now she has only seen a very limited number of immediate family members. Until yesterday, she went to the garden center to get some outdoor plants for the house. She wore a mask, tries to stay away from people, has plenty hand sanitizer. She called a couple weeks ago about getting her hair done, said get me the first day in June you can. Her appointment is June 13th. They are pretty busy now.
People have to make their own decisions. People have to take precautions, but people have to choose what they want to do and not do with risks being what they are.
We aren't Trump lovers. Sure I voted for him 2016, won't be in 2020. My wife hates Trump and has an Obama t-shirt.
For me, for us, this had nothing to do with politics other than the fact we enjoy following political story lines and issues.
I'm getting my hair cut tonight. I'm sorry if that is going to upset some people. Stay sheltered in place if it makes you feel safe. I'm not going to berate you if you do. Everyone has to do what everyone has to do.
Look if it is important enough for you then go for it. For me getting my hair done is not that important. For the record I do not fear death I have seen enough of it to no longer fear it, but my granddaughter needs to grow up having known her only grandmother. I have no wish to spread this in any way if possible. If more people took it seriously it would not bother me but they don't. We usually take a ride around town and since Georgia is open people are out in droves and hardly anyone is wearing masks. Most people do not realize that when you sneeze hard the sprays comes out at a hundred miles an hour. When your mother worked in infectious control you learn these things. That person has the virus they have no symptoms does not cover their mouth and nose and is buying a toy for their kid. They leave the isle then a kid with asthma comes along and touches the toy that was just sneezed on. And on and on it goes. The kid had a mask on but no gloves and just scratched a small cut or wipes their eyes.
We have a governor who can't get his number's straight and a population who think it is a hoax. I am working from home and our CEO said that we will continue to do so. I work for an insurance company with tons of actuarial's. They are running the numbers and the numbers say stay home.
