Wild Card Round
AFC byes: New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers
NFC byes: Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings
Saturday, Jan. 6
GAME 1: Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs, 4:35 p.m., ESPN/ABC
GAME 2: Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m., NBC
Sunday, Jan. 7
GAME 3: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1:05 p.m., CBS
GAME 4: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints, 4:40 p.m., FOX
Everyone has a plan, till you get punched in the face,
I'm over being bummed about my Packers season since it was pretty much done the moment Rodgers' collarbone snapped, but I'm excited for all of the new playoff teams - Buffalo, LA, Tennessee, even Jacksonville. Should be interesting, though I wouldn't be surprised if the AFC Championship ends up being NE v Pitt. Neither Buffalo, KC or Tennessee look up to the task, but there is always one surprise early round knock out. My guess is that will be Minnesota - the NFC is much more evenly matched and, I mean, Minnesota just finds a way.
I like all four underdogs this weekend. Not to win, but I'll take the points. Tenn +9, Atl +6, But+9, Car+7.
It'll never happen but what the heck.
Everything in Moderation. Including Moderation.
Boy are the Patriots a good soap opera story. Who leaves Beantown first?
Everything in Moderation. Including Moderation.
I would have to look, I do know last year favorites went 4-0 in this round, however I have always assosiated next week as a better historical week for favorites. Perception says home teams are great in the playoffs, which generally is true, but in this opening round, I think there is a better chance for dogs to cover. (edit favs went 4-0 last year this week, and all by DD).
Lines sure are high.
I do think I like Tennessee. I can see ways Atlanta makes a game of it, but I think they are the weaker team, they just have that been-there experience. Can you really trust Jax to cover that many? But can you trust Buffalo to score much? Saints 2-0 vs Carolina this year with both wins being by double digits. For all the talk of 'it is hard to beat a team 3x in the same year', I heard a stat that said the team who won the first two are something like 65% in the 3rd game SU.
[Edited on 1/5/2018 by nebish]
I would have to look, I do know last year favorites went 4-0 in this round, however I have always assosiated next week as a better historical week for favorites. Perception says home teams are great in the playoffs, which generally is true, but in this opening round, I think there is a better chance for dogs to cover. (edit favs went 4-0 last year this week, and all by DD).
Lines sure are high.
I do think I like Tennessee. I can see ways Atlanta makes a game of it, but I think they are the weaker team, they just have that been-there experience. Can you really trust Jax to cover that many? But can you trust Buffalo to score much? Saints 2-0 vs Carolina this year with both wins being by double digits. For all the talk of 'it is hard to beat a team 3x in the same year', I heard a stat that said the team who won the first two are something like 65% in the 3rd game SU.
[Edited on 1/5/2018 by nebish]
Two years ago, dogs went 4-0 in this round and neb is correct, favs went 4-0 last year.
I'm maybe looking at much at totals as teams. If McCoy is out for Buffalo, how do they score and Jax is a pretty poor offense too. Mariotta just isn't very good. More INTs than TDs in a passing oriented game. Still mulling things but I have a hunch Newton will make just enough plays that CAR can cover, but not win. Interested to see who ends up playing PHIL, there is more of a dropoff to Foles than I thought from Wentz. Philly could very well get beat next week no matter who they play.
Still rolling things around the old bean.
"Is that a real poncho or is that a Sears poncho?"
Changes my mind on one of them. I like like Rams giving six. Just don't trust Matt Ryan. Atlanta seems to be all over the place.
Everything in Moderation. Including Moderation.
I pick KC, ATL, JAX, and NO.
Slump Bowl. I don't trust Andy Reid teams in the playoffs, but the Titans are even luckier than the Chiefs are to still be playing.
I'd like to see the Rams get a win, but they are super young. Most likely upset.
I'd also like to see Buffalo get a win, but Jacksonville is surprisingly solid this season.
I'll be surprised if this isn't the closest game of the weekend - two teams that know each other well and are pretty evenly matched. But New Orleans has been better all season.
It would be cool to see Buffalo win a game. I know I have posted this someplace on the site but Marv Levy lives right around the corner from here. Be nice to see him get to watch a win.
Everything in Moderation. Including Moderation.
OK, first round of the playoffs, how the dogs do?
2017 Favs 4-0 ats and su
2016 Favs 1-2-1 ats and 3-1 su (1 upset GB at Wash, Seattle was a road fav and won but did not cover, the push was Pit at Cin - the meltdown game by Bengals, my source showed line at 2 which is what Pitt won by and KC won big at Houston)
2015 Favs 2-2 ats 3-1 su (Balt won at Pitt as 3 pt dog, Det lost at Dal by 4 catching 6).
2014 Favs 0-3-1 ats, 1-3 su (SD won +6 at Cincy and KC was road fav and lost at Indy, think this was a big comeback game. Saints won at Phil in the upset and SF won at GB by 3, which my line shows 3 for the push. Road teams were 3-1 SU).
2013 Favs 4-0 ats and su (boring no dogs or upsets)
2012 Favs 3-1 ats and su (Pitt was upset at Denver which went to overtime - TEBOW!)
2011 Favs 1-3 ats and su (Beastmode upset the Saints and Jets won at Indy, GB won at Philly as a small dog, Balt won as a road fav at KC. Road teams were 3-1 SU).
2010 Favs 1-3 ats and su (Balt won at NE and Zona beat GB at home for Sunday upsets, Jets also won on the road for 3 road dog upsets!)
[Edited on 1/6/2018 by nebish]
Murray is out for Tennessee...does that matter, isn't Henry maybe better? Some say is pass protection is lacking, I don't know.
The Mariotta issue, I've heard many blame the play calling for his lackluster play at times...he needs to use the legs! He was hurt midseason and it seemed to be lingering a bit when he came back. Heard a Titan player say something to the effect of "Marcus overcame the play calling today to get this win"...interesting.
Rams... 
Everything in Moderation. Including Moderation.
Murray is out for Tennessee...does that matter, isn't Henry maybe better? Some say is pass protection is lacking, I don't know.
The Mariotta issue, I've heard many blame the play calling for his lackluster play at times...he needs to use the legs! He was hurt midseason and it seemed to be lingering a bit when he came back. Heard a Titan player say something to the effect of "Marcus overcame the play calling today to get this win"...interesting.
Henry is a capable back, I don't think they lose anything with Murray out other than bringing in a fresh back from time to time. I like a play on the total there. Have been listening to quite a few shows with commentary, maybe it's the KC as a "local" team influence, but my line is -9 1/2, which is above the national spread. I would lean toward TN if I had to pick a team, and will definitely take them if it touches 10.
I like Atl +6 1/2, Jax no matter what (will have my biggest wager of the weekend on the under there) and still trying to decide on CAR/NO. Currently, that one is NO -7 on my sheet.
"Is that a real poncho or is that a Sears poncho?"
Panthers/Saints will go to the last possession and I am nervous as hell.
Boy are the Patriots a good soap opera story. Who leaves Beantown first?
Belichick
"Is that a real poncho or is that a Sears poncho?"
Over comes in on game one. 
Let's go Falcons!
"Is that a real poncho or is that a Sears poncho?"
Guess I was right on the dogs. Didn't even need the points. Glad I didn't pull the trigger on the Rams though.
Can't believe the Chefs getting cooked in the second half.
Everything in Moderation. Including Moderation.
Not sure about the Buf / Jack game but I should probably put something on it. I kind of hope Buf can do something. Hell, it's been so long...
Everything in Moderation. Including Moderation.
I split with Ten and Rams. Fell asleep in 2nd half of Rams game, didn't miss much. Not ready for primetime. Special teams mistakes hurt which is strange because special teams has been such a big part of their success this year. I was hoping Goff would throw it all around, but he wasn't really sharp.
Tennessee was a fun game, as long as you weren't a Chiefs fan. Have to think that TE Kelsey going out played a big role, but still, one of your weapons shouldn't hamstring you like that. I thought they were forcing the ball too much to Hill to hope he would break something.
Atlanta an early 3 point fav at Philly.
"Is that a real poncho or is that a Sears poncho?"
Under on Jax/Buff looking like the mortal lock I figured it would be. At least it isn't the college overtime rule where they can keep punching touchdowns in during multiple OTs.
Going to have CAR +7 in the late game. Hope it's more exciting than the first half of game one has been.
"Is that a real poncho or is that a Sears poncho?"
Tough brake for the Bills.
Everyone has a plan, till you get punched in the face,
Atlanta an early 3 point fav at Philly.
I'll take Philly and a field goal at home. Don't care who the QB is.
Everything in Moderation. Including Moderation.
No real surprises this weekend. I picked 3 out of 4, the 4th just proved that the Chiefs and Titans are each equally mediocre.
The New Orleans is going to have another tough game this weekend, but Keenum (who didn't face the Saints in the regular season) is bound to trip up. I'm picking Philly, New England, Pittsburgh, New Orleans.
Speaking of Andy Reid's mediocrity, the Bears have hired their latest future ex-coach, Chiefs' OC Matt Nagy.
Came in third in my pick 'em league. Won about $200. Was also the weekly winner twice so overall I won about $500 less the $150 to get in so I got $350 for the season. Not bad, fun season.
Last year I won almost $1,000 coming in first.
On to some better playoff picks!
Everything in Moderation. Including Moderation.
Lots of fun prop bets for the weekend. A lot of weird ones. I think my favorite is will there be an onside kick in the four games. "No" is the underdog, +170. That one surprised me. 
Everything in Moderation. Including Moderation.
Oh wait, there's a better one: How many times will Carson Wentz' name be mentioned in the Eagles game? The over/under is 2.5
Halftime doesn't count. 😛
I wonder whose job it is to keep track of that. Be a fun gig!
Everything in Moderation. Including Moderation.
Oh wait, there's a better one: How many times will Carson Wentz' name be mentioned in the Eagles game? The over/under is 2.5
Halftime doesn't count. 😛
I wonder whose job it is to keep track of that. Be a fun gig!
My guy doesn't offer money lines, prop bets etc, just straight action.
On the Wentz prop, I wonder if once the coverage starts, but before the game starts, if those mentions would count? Even if it's just during the actual game, my guess is it would be more than 2.5 times.
"Is that a real poncho or is that a Sears poncho?"
There are parameters. Whistle to whistle I guess you would say. Other than halftime as I mentioned. It's 5 to 1 on the over under. I can't believe there is anyway in the world his name won't be mentioned 3 times.
Everything in Moderation. Including Moderation.
