Europe Slowly Emerges From Coronavirus Lockdown
Country by country, store by store, Europe is letting commercial life breathe again, in tiny gasps
By Giovanni Legorano in Rome and
Drew Hinshaw in Warsaw | Photographs by Francesca Volpi for The Wall Street Journal
April 19, 2020 5:30 am ETBookstores, and almost nothing else, are open again along desolate canals of Venice. Restaurants and hotels remain shut and cafes once packed with tourists sit empty.
But for two days a week, customers can browse for books, so long as they wear a mask, disinfect their hands before shopping, and stay more than 6 feet apart. To comply, the city’s MarcoPolo bookstore has asked customers to enter one at a time in the morning or schedule a half-hour appointment for the afternoon.
“It’s useless to think about sales,” said its co-owner, Claudio Moretti. “The reason we are opening is to make the bookstore live again, to give our clients a bit of freedom.”
For a look at how hard it is to press “play” on a Western economy still battling the new coronavirus, turn to Europe, and to Italy, which is painstakingly freeing its shops and small businesses in stages, easing a continentwide lockdown that has kept nearly half a billion people at home.
Nation by nation, and in some cases, storefront by storefront, health authorities in the European Union are selecting when and where commercial life can breathe again, in tiny gasps. Each new category of retail allowed to function presents a real-time experiment for what coming weeks could look like as parts of the U.S. attempt to follow.
Most Italian regions have let children’s clothing outlets open, and the Czech Republic has greenlit hardware stores. In central Vienna, face-masked Austrians now line up around city blocks to visit sewing shops and chocolatiers. This week, Germany and Poland both said they would loosen rules that have suffocated retail.
The openings are piecemeal and provisional, bringing no swift or substantial relief to a crushing recession projected to be Europe’s worst since the Great Depression.
Stores have reopened only to find employees and sometimes goods stuck on the other side of sealed borders. Some have lost customers who have migrated online. Managers trying to plan ahead know that if and when new coronavirus cases exceed a certain count, public health officials will reimpose lockdowns.
“It will be really hard to get back to business. Reopening will be very difficult across Europe,” said Nicola Nobile, an economist at research firm Oxford Economics.
Europe has no blueprint or overriding agency coordinating the delicate undertaking its nations are attempting, each on their own timeline: to revive their collective continentwide economy in phases, while still containing a deadly pandemic.
Decisions on what shops to open and when have devolved to national authorities, and in hard-hit places like Italy, also regional administrators.
Italy’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has allowed certain smaller shops like stationery stores to open, though seven of Italy’s 20 regions have kept them shut. Other countries with fewer cases, such as Denmark or Austria, are easing faster, the first to risk new waves of infections while their neighbors observe the results.
Europe’s atomized efforts are a test of how the U.S. will fare as states such as New York and California attempt to follow. President Trump’s administration has encouraged states to reopen in phases after cases begin to fall. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and the governors of six nearby states have convened a task force to look at how they will reopen their economies.
Experiences in Europe suggest the reopenings will come in fits and starts, in a strange, postlockdown reality where commercial districts are at best half-open, closed to tour groups and crowds, and bracketed with temperature control checks.
“It’s a hard mental shift,” said Weston Stacey, the executive director of the American Chamber of Commerce in the Czech Republic. “With U.S. government officials we’ve talked to, it’s very hard to get them around this thinking of, ‘OK, if we do this, in three weeks, everything will go back to normal.’ Things are not going back to normal.”
Lockdown restrictions helped reduce coronavirus cases and many Italian intensive-care units now have free beds. But the toll on shops, restaurants, bars and entertainment businesses has been extraordinary.
At least a sixth of all Italian restaurant and bars—some 50,000 mostly small businesses—will perish, the country’s bar and diner lobby Fipe projects. Movie theaters have seen almost no revenue in weeks, and anticipate prohibitive crowd restrictions when they reopen: Germany’s top 10 grossing films combined reported just $1,485 in total ticket sales over Easter weekend.
For the few shops cleared to open, business is brisk. In the Czech Republic, hardware stores and bike shops—virtually the only nonessential stores currently allowed—saw sales up 61% over Easter weekend, compared with the same period last year, according to Global Payments Inc., a financial services company. Prague’s Krab Cycles bike shop was inundated with customers.
“It’s actually pretty crazy,” said Jaroslav Hellebrand, an employee. “The weather is getting better, it’s sunny out and biking is one of the few sports they’re allowed to do. You can’t do much else.”
For others, the process is slow and agonizing, with store owners debating whether to squander their savings paying rent on an empty shop, or to cut their losses and navigate bankruptcy.
“We really want to keep the place running,” said David Hajek, co-owner of the upscale Prague bistro Roesel. “It is really hard to do the math.”
The country is an example of Europe’s open-in-stages approach. On Monday, the Czech government will allow farmers markets and car dealers to reopen. Weddings will be permitted, so long as no more than 10 people attend. Gyms can open on May 11, but not their changing rooms. Malls, hotels and indoor restaurants won’t reopen until June 8 at the earliest.
The country currently has just 5,202 active cases, one of the continent’s lowest rates, including 116 new infections reported Friday. If at any point that daily count of new cases exceeds 400, as many health experts expect it will, the government will reimpose lockdown measures.
“The train is very fast and if you don’t catch it soon it becomes almost impossible to catch,” said Czech Health Minister Adam Vojtech. “We are going to start to normalize life in the Czech Republic. All these measures have had a huge impact on the lives of people and we have to start the economy again.
Germany, seeking a path out of lockdown, begins broad random testing for antibodies.
While other nations are still struggling to test for infections, Germany is doing that and more. It is aiming to sample the entire population for antibodies in coming months, hoping to gain valuable insight into how deeply the virus has penetrated the society at large, how deadly it really is, and whether immunity might be developing.
In Munich, residents of 3,000 households chosen at random are being asked to allow monthly blood tests for Covid-19 antibodies for a year. It’s an ambitious study whose central aim is to understand how many people — even those with no symptoms — have already had the virus, a key variable to make decisions about public life in a pandemic.
The Munich research is the largest of several regional studies being rolled out in various corners of the country, which has become a leader among Western nations figuring out how to control the contagion while returning to something resembling normal life.
The government hopes to use the findings to unravel a riddle that will allow Germany to move securely into the next phase of the pandemic: Which of the far-reaching social and economic restrictions that have slowed the virus are most effective and which can be safely lifted?
The same questions are being asked around the world. Other countries like Iceland and South Korea have tested broadly for infections, or combined testing with digital tracking to undercut the spread of the virus. But even the best laid plans can go awry; Singapore attempted to reopen only to have the virus re-emerge.
The antibody testing has its limits. Scientists caution that there is no proof yet that the detection of antibodies signals effective immunity. And even antibodies were proven to offer immunity, there is no clarity on how long it might last.
And the country is still struggling with its outbreak. Germany recorded a fourth straight day of a spike in new infections on Saturday. Data from the Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases showed that coronavirus cases rose by 3,609, for a total of 137,439. The death toll rose by 242, to 4,110.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/world/coronavirus-cases-tracker.html#link-5c132514
Germany doing broad anti-body testing, something the US isn't ready to do. With all the talk of questionable and unreliable anti-body tests on the market (didn't the UK get millions of bad tests from China?), I wonder how effective it can be, but I hope for them it is. They are easing restrictions despite a 4th straight day of new infection spikes. Imagine if that happened here? Some would look to charge Trump with murder.
Italy lifting lockdown May 4th, partial story:
Whereas Denmark, France and others in Europe are moving to reopen their schools first, advisers in Italy have recommended starting with businesses — only the ones least at risk. It remains unclear when schools or restaurants might reopen, or businesses that bring people close together, such as hairdressers and gyms.
Even a limited and tentative reopening of society will require dramatic changes, the advisers say. Mask-wearing will be encouraged until there is a vaccine or medical treatment. Once ordinary aspects of daily life, such as rush hour, must be reconsidered, they say, to reduce crowding on metros and buses.
“Companies may decide that shifts should be on a 12-hour basis. Or they start seven-day production time,” said Ranieri Guerra, a World Health Organization assistant director-general who is advising the Italian Health Ministry. “Public transport is obviously a potential source of infection.”
Paolo Vineis, a Turin-based epidemiologist who is advising the government, said he was less worried about industries, which are “pretty well organized,” than he was about the general public.
For instance, he said, parents compelled to return to work may have limited options for child care while schools remain closed. Children may be left in the care of their grandparents — an especially vulnerable population — with parents risking infecting everyone when they return in the evenings.
There will also be tighter surveillance, in the form of a contact-tracing app that uses Bluetooth technology. If people go to a museum, for instance, and come in contact with a person soon found to have the virus, they will receive a phone notification informing them that they might have been exposed.
Some Italians have voiced concern about privacy and security issues. Conte has emphasized the app is voluntary. But experts say 60 percent of people need to be using it for it to have much utility. A similar app in Austria has seen relatively limited uptake.
Coronavirus tracking apps meet resistance in privacy-conscious Europe
Even if the app is widely used in Italy, controlling future outbreaks will require an army of on-the-ground contact tracers to identify, test and isolate people who might have been exposed.
Pier Luigi Lopalco, an epidemiologist at the University of Pisa, said that in some regions, Italy doesn’t yet have the manpower.
“The app is not functioning alone,” Lopalco said. “You still need people to identify the case, make the control, to go to the home and do the testing.”
The greatest concern is that, as restrictions are eased, the virus could come roaring back — or that it could spread undetected if parts of the population aren’t being rigorously tested. That is what has happened in Singapore, where the cases spiked as the virus spread among migrant workers.
Experts said they could imagine a scenario in which future lockdowns in Italy are limited to one region or another, with thresholds set based on the risk to local hospitals. That would leave the poorer south with less leeway. On a per capita basis, some northern regions have four times the number of intensive care beds that Sicily does.
Denmark expects to test 22,000 daily (Denmark population 6 million). Anyone with symptoms can be tested, but must be referred by a general practitioner or their emergency hotline. Kindergarten schools and grades 1-5 are open, hair dressers, beauty salons and tattoo parlors open.
France is aiming to test everyone with symptoms by May 11th when it plans to ease restrictions. France is currently only testing 25,000 per day.
UK is only doing about 25,000 tests per day and are struggling to test even health care workers with symptoms!
Norway is anticipating everyone with symptoms by May. Kindergartens opened Monday.
Germany is conducting 120,000 tests per day (double from where they were early April)(83 million population) and are the first European country to do widespread antibody testing accounting for 5000 blood samples every 14 days.
[Edited on 4/26/2020 by nebish]
Germany, seeking a path out of lockdown, begins broad random testing for antibodies.
While other nations are still struggling to test for infections, Germany is doing that and more. It is aiming to sample the entire population for antibodies in coming months, hoping to gain valuable insight into how deeply the virus has penetrated the society at large, how deadly it really is, and whether immunity might be developing.
In Munich, residents of 3,000 households chosen at random are being asked to allow monthly blood tests for Covid-19 antibodies for a year. It’s an ambitious study whose central aim is to understand how many people — even those with no symptoms — have already had the virus, a key variable to make decisions about public life in a pandemic.
The Munich research is the largest of several regional studies being rolled out in various corners of the country, which has become a leader among Western nations figuring out how to control the contagion while returning to something resembling normal life.
The government hopes to use the findings to unravel a riddle that will allow Germany to move securely into the next phase of the pandemic: Which of the far-reaching social and economic restrictions that have slowed the virus are most effective and which can be safely lifted?
The same questions are being asked around the world. Other countries like Iceland and South Korea have tested broadly for infections, or combined testing with digital tracking to undercut the spread of the virus. But even the best laid plans can go awry; Singapore attempted to reopen only to have the virus re-emerge.
The antibody testing has its limits. Scientists caution that there is no proof yet that the detection of antibodies signals effective immunity. And even antibodies were proven to offer immunity, there is no clarity on how long it might last.
And the country is still struggling with its outbreak. Germany recorded a fourth straight day of a spike in new infections on Saturday. Data from the Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases showed that coronavirus cases rose by 3,609, for a total of 137,439. The death toll rose by 242, to 4,110.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/world/coronavirus-cases-tracker.html#link-5c132514
Germany doing broad anti-body testing, something the US isn't ready to do. With all the talk of questionable and unreliable anti-body tests on the market (didn't the UK get millions of bad tests from China?), I wonder how effective it can be, but I hope for them it is. They are easing restrictions despite a 4th straight day of new infection spikes. Imagine if that happened here? Some would look to charge Trump with murder.
They can test the masses but even if you test negative today, next week you could have been exposed and transmit it as an asymptomatic carrier. We have 320 million people here. How long would it take to test all these people, and how often do re-
Tests need to be done?
What will they do with Covid-19 positive people? When people are re-infected even after having recovered once.
What about strains mutating? A vaccine is not even going to effective against new strains.
Will this usher in Agenda 21, or separating people into Fema camps or "clean communities" where residents are disease free?
They say "contact tracing". What then happens to keep tabs on the original infected person? Tracking, in what form, with what restrictions, reported to whom, surveilled by whom?
that is six Gina questions, I cant begin to do it...
Protests and outrage elsewhere too, not like Americans are the only ones...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-protests-idUSKCN2270RD
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/protesters-march-against-covid-19-prevention-measures-in-vancouver-1.4912767
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/29/world/29reuters-health-coronavirus-serbia-protests.html
