Get your long johns on Piacere it's going to get verrrry cold.
FIRST COLD FRONT DEPARTS
As an area of low pressure departs from New England this evening, a cold front will quickly follow behind the low-pressure system with a few widely scattered rain and snow showers. Winds will remain from the west-northwest at 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures will fall through the 40's and into the 30's this evening.
ARCTIC BLAST AND SNOW SQUALLS TOMORROW WEDNESDAY
An arctic cold front will follow tomorrow with isolated to widely scattered snow showers. Along the cold front passage, a line of intense snow showers, basically like thunderstorms, will march through the region in the afternoon and evening. These snow squalls can reduce visibility to less than a mile with little notice and produce accumulating snowfall on surfaces. Winds will be from the west at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph. Temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid to upper 20's over the interior and upper 20's to lower 30's along the coast for lows and lower to mid 40's for highs ahead of the cold front. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon and evening will quickly fall into the 30's and 20's behind the cold front passage with wind chill temperatures in the 10's and 20's.
FROZEN TURKEY
Arctic high pressure will be in control on Thanksgiving with brutally cold weather conditions. Scattered clouds to clear skies will be in place with winds from the west at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will range from the lower to mid 10's over the interior and upper 10's to lower 20's along the coast for lows and lower to mid 20's over the interior and mid to upper 20's along the coast for highs.
SLOW WARM-UP
High pressure will slowly exit on Friday and Saturday with scattered cloud cover. Temperatures on Friday will range from the 0's to lower 10's over the interior and mid to upper 10's along the coast for lows and upper 20's to lower 30's for highs. Temperatures on Saturday will range from the lower to mid 20's for lows and mid to upper 40's over the interior and lower to mid 50's along the coast for highs.
RAINSTORMS EXPECTED
An area of low pressure will produce periods of rain on Sunday. Another area of low pressure will produce periods of showers on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures on Sunday will range from the upper 30's to lower 40's over the interior and lower to mid 40's along the coast for lows and upper 40's to mid 50's for highs. Temperatures on Monday will range from the upper 20's to lower 30's for lows and mid 40's to lower 50's for highs. Temperatures on Tuesday will range from the mid to upper 30's for lows and mid to upper 40's for highs.
Remark: Another site has hurricane force winds with that rain Monday into Tuesday. Might be time we all join Jerry in that hot tub in Belize!
Sure thing, babe. I'll bring the wine. 😉
The quake that hit Alaska is believed to be able to 1,000 aftershocks. There was another one last night in Turin, Italy that the US did not report. The Italian seismic agency did. Since that is legitamite Europe is facing quakes .
Remarks: the 6.2 quakes sometimes are created (whether by deliberate actions wanting to create them or by happenstance. The fracking causes quakes but the officials will not admit it because there is BIG money involved.
There are some media outlets predicting a big snowstorm for the northeast. Other meteorologists do not think so.
Just keep a look out no need to panic yet. Here are the two scenarios, but 4 our of 4 mets that I read do NOT think metro NY is gonna get it. But this is Monday, so we need to just keep a look out and see how the factors come together to indicate where it will be the worst. At this point 4 our of 4 mets think scenario #2 is the more likely one.
[Edited on 12/4/2018 by gina]
I thought it was a clear thing that this storm would just stay south and not bother anybody up here in the north. So far the consensus is that it will stay south of metro NY, well Monday into Tuesday may become interesting.
First things first.
Joe's map for the Saturday Sunday piece of the storm. That 6-12 is inches of snow, be aware if you are in any of those areas. Texas, Arkansas and those places will get a lot of rain, anything North of I-40 will be subject to flooding.
https://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2018/12/05/snowstorm-western-carolinas-sw-virginia-heading-east-offshore/
Henry thinks Virginia will get some big snow. 12-17 inches.
https://weathermadness.com/2018/12/05/live-blog-weekend-snowfall-potential/#jp-carousel-1532
https://weathermadness.com/2018/12/05/live-blog-weekend-snowfall-potential/
Bernie is watching everything like everybody else. He explained that Monday night into Tuesday after the original storm goes thru, the trough becomes negative. That trough is actually going to be created by aspects of the storm and it is THAT part of the energy that can bring int he Atlantic moisture and steer the storm up the coastline towards the Delmarva and points northward. CAN, it is not definite yet.
Watch his video from yesterday 12-14-18 he explains all this.
Best advice is be prepared for whatever is coming your way, get some snacks and things you like and if the weather is really bad where you are try to stay inside, or have sand/kitty litter and a shovel with you if you venture out and get stuck someplace.
CAROLINA 26.8 Inches see the map
https://weathermadness.com/2018/12/07/live-blog-weekend-snowfall-potential/
Bernie: Texas Panhandle and Carolina
[Edited on 12/7/2018 by gina]
RYAN:
2 feet of snow Western NC and Southern Va.
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue
HENRY:
My Big Daddy Snow Index will be a 4 for this storm basically for the heavy snow, not much for the wind and drifting. The snow will start as rain but change over to heavy snow tonight and last well into Sunday with rates of 1-3 inches per hour.
https://weathermadness.com/2018/12/08/live-blog-weekend-snowfall-potential/
NEXT WEEKEND
SAT 12-15-18 HEADS UP METRO NY
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018120812&fh=168
AND yes IT GOES THRU THE NC COASTLINE BEFORE COMING NORTH this is Friday midnight into Saturday.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?
model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018120812&fh=156
[Edited on 12/8/2018 by gina]
RYAN:
2 feet of snow Western NC and Southern Va.
https://twitter.com/ryanmaueAND yes IT GOES THRU THE NC COASTLINE BEFORE COMING NORTH this is Friday midnight into Saturday.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?
model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018120812&fh=156[Edited on 12/8/2018 by gina]
That's how it played out -- now the double whammy of freezing temps turning slush into ice -- last count, 140,000 w/out power -- elsewhere, one of best starts for ski areas in recent memory 
If you felt the earth move under your feet, it wasn't a band doing Carol King's Song "I Feel the Earth Move", there really was an earthquake!
https://weather.com/news/news/2018-12-12-tennessee-earthquake?cm_ven=wu_videos?cm_ven=hp-slot-1
Bernie has warnings for Texas
https://twitter.com/AccuRayno?ref_src ="twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor"
[Edited on 12/12/2018 by gina]
Northeast HEADS UP next Friday into Saturday. More later.
Re: Florida, yes they had a tsunami of sorts but not in the traditional sense or from the usual volcano causation.
"No doubt you've heard of a tsunami, which is a giant oceanic waves triggered primarily by earthquakes that can roll ashore, causing loss of life and disaster. But have you heard of meteotsunamis?
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, "a meteotsunamis are large waves that scientists are just beginning to better understand. Unlike tsunamis triggered by seismic activity, meteotsunamis are driven by air-pressure disturbances often associated with fast-moving weather events, such as severe thunderstorms, squalls, and other storm fronts. The storm generates a wave that moves towards the shore, and is amplified by a shallow continental shelf and inlet, bay, or other coastal feature.
"Meteotsunamis have been observed to reach heights of 6 feet or more. They occur in many places around the world, including the Great Lakes, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic Coast, and the Mediterranean and Adriatic Seas.
“Identifying a meteotsunami is a challenge because its characteristics are almost indistinguishable from a seismic tsunami. It can also be confused with wind-driven storm surge or a seiche. These uncertainties make it difficult to predict a meteotsunami and warn the public of a potential event. However, NOAA scientists have identified atmospheric conditions that are likely to generate a meteotsunami and continue to work on ways to forecast them.”
The tsunami today in Indonesia in the Anyer region of Banten was caused by activity of the Anak Krakatoa volcano going off in the Lesser Sunda Strait.
There also have been landslides in the Congo, China.
WEEKEND.
It has to be watched. Bernie thinks it may stay south of Long Island and NYC, but Philadelphia and DC should get it. Storm has 3-6+ inches in it.
The upcoming weather.
Saint Louis takes the brunt of this storm 8 inches plus possible.
Longer range snowcast.
Sat. Jan 19th snow Delmarva
Sun. Jan. 20th - BIG BIG SNOW HUGE STORM
Mon. Jan 24th Delmarva
Sat. Jan 26th - more snow.
[Edited on 1/10/2019 by gina]
St. Louis has taken quite a hit from the storm.
Videos on Bernie's page from Reed Timmer, Extreme Weather specialist from Accuweather who loves chasing tornadoes. Bernie's been travelling with the American Meteorological Society Conferences which is why he was in Phoenix, they have a tour going on right now.
Why it is so complicated as to what is coming east and where. Steve explains.
https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2019/01/12/video-discussion-for-january-12-2019/
Ryan is calling for over 8 inches for DC
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue
[Edited on 1/12/2019 by gina]
ISM announces new global forecasting system
Southern Jersey is in the storm this weekend. Pray for those people.
From NWS
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4
inches. This will result in total snow accumulations of 5 to 7
inches. A brief period of mixing to sleet and rain may occur by
early this evening, then precipitation changes back to all snow
before ending late tonight.
* WHERE...Atlantic and Cape May counties.
* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult due to snow
covered and slippery roads.
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4
inches. This will result in total snow accumulations of 6 to 8
inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph late this afternoon and
tonight. Snow may mix with sleet and rain this afternoon before
transitioning back to snow this evening.
* WHERE...In New Jersey, Cumberland county. In Delaware, Inland
Sussex and Kent counties.
* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult due to snow
covered and slippery roads.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
There is something BAD, VERY BAD looming for next weekend.
Henry's take on it.
https://weathermadness.com/2019/01/13/massive-snowstorm-will-lead-arctic-plunge/
Some models are showing incredible amounts of snow while others are showing 1-10 inches of snow. With arctic air getting involved, snow ratios will vary and can end up meaning snowfall over a foot in many areas. The extreme would be a blizzard in some areas of the Northeast if the storm takes a track to the East coast. I think the GFS track is probably not going to happen because storms typically don’t like to ride up the Appalachians, they like to jump the mountains and reform on the coast which is what the ECMWF is showing and I am leaning towards.
REMARKS: PRAY NO!!!!!!!
The next storm slated to hit the northeast this upcoming weekend is the beginning of more storms (3) over the next two weeks, that one met (that's what meteorologists call themselves, mets). These storms 4 in total could by Henry's estimate bring 6-30 inches of snow within 2 weeks. Get ready everybody.
https://weathermadness.com/2019/01/14/heavy-snow-cat-4-big-daddy-scale-potential/
Comments: The Euro model at this time has 9 inches for my area. I don't like that, not with drifts, and certain people who blow their snow into other people's driveways.
Bernie's Periscope video
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1dRKZOPoywvGB
6-12 inches and ice.
Joe Cioffi
https://blog.weather.us/heading-into-an-active-winter-pattern/
[Edited on 1/15/2019 by gina]
The mets are still working on the forecast for the weekend storm, but Bernie pointed out that
Bernie has revised his map, Boston may get a little less but the suburbs north and west 12 inches.
State College, PA 12 inches (home of Accuweather)
Hartford 12 inches
Pittsburgh 6-12
Long Island 1-3 or 3-6
Steve pointed out that whatever comes down on Sunday will turn to an ice sheet for the Monday morning commute.
https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2019/01/18/video-discussion-for-january-18-2019/
Steve's video, no hype just the science.
Storm comes 5 pm - 7 pm Saturday
Leaves 8 AM to 10 AM Sunday
Henry's latest video.
https://weathermadness.com/2019/01/18/storm-video-wide-area-of-snow-and-ice-new-york-city-interesting/
Bernie's voice is gone, he will try to do a video tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/AccuRayno
[Edited on 1/18/2019 by gina]
MAP
Update from Henry:
https://weathermadness.com/2019/01/18/kuchera-method-for-snow-amounts-seems-to-be-working-best/
https://twitter.com/JeffSmithABC7
[Edited on 1/19/2019 by gina]
Okay metro NY. Yes we still have time to do things. It starts after 4 pm for Long Island and after 6 pm for NYC.
A 40 percent chance of snow after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. Northeast wind 8 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon.
Tonight
Snow before 11pm, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet between 11pm and 1am, then rain after 1am. The rain could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 38 by 4am. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. East wind 14 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Sunday
Rain before 1pm, then a chance of freezing rain between 1pm and 4pm, then a slight chance of snow and sleet after 4pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to near 39 by 8am, then falling to around 26 during the remainder of the day. Wind chill values between 10 and 20. Breezy, with an east wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest 16 to 21 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 8. Wind chill values between -10 and zero. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.
M.L.King Day
MON.
Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 15. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 22 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph.
Monday Night
NITE: Mostly clear, with a steady temperature around 13. Blustery.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 28.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.
Wednesday
A chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 7am, then a chance of rain and sleet between 7am and 8am, then a chance of rain after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday Night
A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.
Thursday
A 40 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 42.
Thursday Night
A 30 percent chance of snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 34.
You want some scientific weather info. Here's some from Jack Sillin.
https://blog.weather.us/major-east-coast-storm-begins-today/
"Jack Sillin is a weather nerd and forecaster who regularly writes for weather.us, 33andrain.com, and upportland.com. Follow me on twitter @JackSillin."
Follow along with the storm today and tomorrow using the storm tracking tools we have at weather.us including GOES-East satellite imagery, HD radar imagery, and current observations (click any weather.us map to zoom in for a closer look!). The latest model forecasts can be found both at weather.us and weathermodels.com. Additionally our team will be tweeting out updates @WeatherdotUS, @RyanMaue, and @JackSillin.
God heard the cries of many of us here and gave us respite from the snow. I am thankful.
What's a matter Gina, cold got you all bundled up and unable to post?
Slacker. 
No I have been sad and concerned about the Afghan peace process because anytime anyone wants to wage peace, they get assassinated and I don't want that to happen to Mullah Bararder who is now leading the peace talks for the Afghans.
With regards to the weather, I am taking it day by day. When one reporter started calling Chicago Chiberia (A combination of Chicago and Siberia) I realized I could NOT complain about what we have here, a couple of days of coldness.
This is what we had yesterday it hit NYC about 4 pm and my neck of the woods about 4:45 pm
https://uproxx.com/viral/nyc-snow-squall-polar-vortex-twitter/
https://nypost.com/2019/01/30/watch-a-snow-squall-clobber-nyc-in-this-insane-timelapse/
[Edited on 1/31/2019 by gina]
geeze gina, you need a drink.
On second thought, I need a drink.
