Bernie echoes what others have said.
Others have zeroed in on the impact point at being Wilmington. But since the storm will sit over land as it goes on, 48 hours of rain will cause major flooding as Bernie has pointed out.
Henry tells it like it is.
" I like a landfall near Wilmington, NC but as a slowing storm and stalling storm which means big problems. If you remain on the coast when Florence hits, you can be killed. Think of this storm as a huge EF-3 tornado that will buzz down trees and do extensive damage to property. Then we have the flooding which will be measured in feet. So the only thing I can say is prepare now."
https://weathermadness.com/2018/09/10/live-blog-major-hurricane-florence-track-and-impacts/
The storm is a solid CAT 4. 147 miles per hour at landfall!
Latest Data:
Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1200 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018
...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence
has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds
near 130 mph (195 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based
on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).
Jeff predicts a 15-20 FOOT STORM SURGE.
"Depending on where its center makes landfall, a mid-strength Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds hitting at high tide, in a worst-case scenario, can generate a storm tide in excess of twenty feet above ground level along the entire coast of South Carolina, and along most of the coast of southern North Carolina from the South Carolina border to Morehead City. Many locations could see a higher surge, of up to 27 feet. And a Category 5 storm is much worse: a theoretical peak storm tide of 33 feet is predicted by the SLOSH model for the Intracoastal Waterway north of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. These peak surges occur over a 10 - 40 mile stretch of coast where the right eyewall makes landfall. If Florence were to make landfall near Wilmington, NC, for example, the highest surges would extend northeastward to around Jacksonville, NC."
If you are in NC and plan to get out be aware that the cone of the winds extends to Atlanta and Knoxville, you would need to be west of these areas to not have to deal with tropical storm force winds, and in the north, the cone goes to Cincinnati/Columbus Ohio and Pittsburgh,PA, so if you are in an area subject to flooding in PA, you might want to consider going west of these areas.
[Edited on 9/10/2018 by gina]
This is actually some very good info. for any future things people may encounter.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/surge_images.asp
IMPACT POINT for Florence Bayboro, north of Wilimington.
it's a Category 2 hurricane -- also, TV says, a category 5 flood threat -- hadn't heard that term b4 -- for all the damage predicted to be inflicted, Category 2 doesn't seem like much
already however, people are out of power (weatherchannel.com) -- not another Katrina but looks serious, & like Katrina, concerns about other blows coming in behind this one
I wish they'd just call it one thing & not complicate/confuse things -- looks like a Category IV to me
Gordon turned out to be less serious on the Gulf Coast than it was last week -- hopefully landfall will quickly take the legs outta this one
Thankfully it went down to a 1 or the damage would have been worse. 500,000 people still have no eletricity, that's pretty bad.
I don't even know if some folks can handle this, but two weeks out [from now] the GFS has another hurricane, Atlantic based coming up the coast along the same areas that were hit this time. The name, Kirk. No the main stream folks don't have anything on it yet, but we'll have to keep a lookout.
No drama yet but we need to still be vigilant.
It’s never too soon for these things.
More news on these two soon to be storms. Kirk and Leslie.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/99L-Concern-Caribbean-Wednesday-Night?cm_ven=hp-slot-2
Even noaa is giving a nod to these future storms.
[Edited on 9/22/2018 by gina]
Michael - Gulf Coast - Florida Panhandle impact. Deep convection on the eastern side (that's always bad) the center reformed. I'm not liking that after impacting the Florida panhandle by Friday remnants will be off the Delmarva.
https://weathermadness.com/hurricane-michael-track-and-intensity/
[Edited on 10/7/2018 by gina]
Ryan is reporting (39 minutes ago) models say that Hurricane Michael to become a Cat 3-4. That strength is NOT a definite. But it would at least be a Cat 1 - 2.
"Hurricane Center now with Michael reaching at least Category 2 in Gulf of Mexico.
Again, most model guidance is showing Category 3-4 pressure & winds. "
Live blog by Dr. Maue (he's a Ph.D, a Doctorate in Meteorology)
https://blog.weather.us/michael-could-be-a-powerful-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane/
JEFF MASTERS from Wunderground:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Tropical-Storm-Michael-Headed-Gulf-Mexico?cm_ven=hp-slot-1
Potential for 5-9 FOOT Storm surge for parts along the Florida Panhandle.
"Sunday’s 0Z and 12Z UKMET tracks were similar to the Euro’s. The 12Z UKMET and Euro model runs were concerning, as they showed the potential for Michael to emerge over water off the coast of South Carolina. Michael thus has the potential to affect a large portion of the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina as a strong tropical storm or Catgeory 1 hurricane."
CAROLINA BEWARE.
Remarks: If I lived along the Panhandle I would head on outta there for a couple of days. I'm not very happy about the remnant rain coming up the Delmarva either.
[Edited on 10/7/2018 by gina]
Anybody in Appalachicola GET OUT OF THERE. Tampa Bay will have that storm surge also. There will be flooding in Georgia too, high rise buildings in Atlanta can have their windows blown out. This is a serious storm.
NOAA:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/view.html?name=Michael
NHC:
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic
WUNDERGROUND:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Michael-Near-Category-3-Strength-it-Heads-Towards-Florida
JOE CIOFFI AND DR. JUDAH COHEN
Winter 2018-2019 Weather Explanations plus updates for local hurricanes. (Joe Cioffi and Dr. Judah Cohen)
Michael could be borderline Cat 3 making landfall Wednesday afternoon (2 p.m.)
[Edited on 10/9/2018 by gina]
Winds start 11 am IMPACT 2 PM, 125 miles per hour CAT 3. If it goes to 130 miles per hour then it will be a CAT 4.
Michael went in at Mexico Beach at 155 miles per hour.
Pensacola airport has just re-opened with minimal operations and some scheduled flights for tomorrow.
https://weartv.com/news/local/pensacola-airport-reopens-after-hurricane-michael-blows-through
he Pensacola International Airport plans to open with minimal operations today starting at 3:30 pm. Current flight information is posted below – weather permitting. Morning flights for Thursday, October 11 may be impacted. Passengers should check DIRECTLY with their airline to confirm flight status BEFORE heading to the airport.
AMERICAN
- All American flights for Wednesday are CANCELLED
- Thursday morning flights #5082, 2453, 5353 & 3508 are CANCELLED
DELTA
- Flights #1814, 2182, 1236 & 1213 are scheduled to operate today
- Normal operations scheduled for Thursday
FRONTIER
- All Frontier flights for Wednesday are CANCELLED
- Normal operations scheduled for Thursday
SILVER
- All Silver flights for Wednesday are CANCELLED
- Normal operations scheduled for Thursday
SOUTHWEST
- All Southwest flights for Wednesday are CANCELLED
- Thursday morning flight #1615 to BNA is CANCELLED
UNITED
- All United flights for Wednesday are CANCELLED
- Thursday morning flight #6262 to IAH is CANCELLED
While some folks who stayed there would like to get out. Help is on the way from the utility companies.
Scott Brazer took his dog Franklin into a garage as the storm came through Panama City. Franklin knows this is serious.
https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/news-photo-gallery/photos-hurricane-michael-slams-florida-
panhandle#id3
The Humane Society of Naples drove 6 hours to go and rescue dogs at shelters in the path of the storm. One dog had given birth to puppies. She is happy to have her babies with her and out of harms way.
Some video coverage
http://www.nbc-2.com/story/39264150/hurricane-michael-makes-landfall-in-florida
From Ginger Zee Chief Meteorologist in Mexico City where Michael made landfall.
https://970wfla.iheart.com/content/2018-10-10-hurricane-michael-slams-into-florida-panhandle-as-a-category-4-storm/
And Yes Jim Cantore was out on the beach area once again. helping NBC Reporter Kerry Sanders not get blown away.
https://www.wfla.com/weather/hurricane/nbc-reporter-kerry-sanders-nearly-blown-away-by-wind-gust-during-hurricane-michael/1513493192
[Edited on 10/13/2018 by gina]
TORNADO WARNING AREAS FOR THURSDAY GEORGIA AND THEREABOUTS
Prayers for all those affected in the path of Michael.
The storm ripped houses off their foundations and just levelled them. Everybody who sees the damage and lives along any coastline knows it could happen to them with the next storm.
Those who were effected probably cannot go back there to live. Are the insurance companies going to pay to rebuild all those houses? They didn't do it when Sandy hit up here, the state offerred to buy the land and pay people off in the hardest hit areas. The insurance companies were not going to pay out on a hit like that.
Yes we should pray for those people. Many of them now have nothing left but themselves and whatever they took with them when they evacuated. That is huge to deal with.
Tuesday October 23rd some of the models have a storm off Jacksonville, Florida, meaning it would be an east coast storm that could come up the coast. [more later as more is known].
As to everything else, Joe has some good info.
Looks like everybody's getting something out of this storm.
They're forecasting mid-80s or warmer this wknd in LA, a huge change from chilly Boston --
Yeah they'll have 56,000 of their closest friends there -- but the Chavez Ravine climate will be a benefit to both teams, so even on that score -- envision taking 2 of 3 & title out there, returning to a heroes' welcome at Logan
Enjoy it Stephen while the northeast gets the rain and wind, at least someplace in the country is nice.
[Edited on 10/25/2018 by gina]
weather is clear for parade tomorrow, it's been on Oct. 31 twice & Nov 1 twice -- route, attendance the same -- a complete downtown shutdown for the Sox, YAA!
winter is on the way in northern NE, it's been overcast & chilly -- Whites, Presidentials all snow covered
hope the weather is good for all the Halloween parades
Reed Timmer (extreme weather meteorologist and storm chaser) has a warning for tonight for Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee, 70 knot winds and tornadoes.
https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu
It's serious enough that Bernie's even re-tweeting it!
Ryan is already talking about the polar jet and what the mets think will happen this winter.
Dr. John Holdren, Obama's Science and Technology Adviser explains it all in 2 minutes.
[Edited on 11/5/2018 by gina]
Climate change IF all the arctic and antarctic ice meltecd.
No it's not just hype. It is a storm called Avery, and one poster already has proven it is not going to be pleasant. "snow in Monroe, Louisiana".
Piacere, get ready.
What's happened in Calif is ghastly -- no different from a nightmare, in both wildfires
Winter has come early to northern NE, to say the least -- 6" of snow followed by single digits earlier this week, & same thing w/more snow predicted tonight & freezing cold returns Sunday
No it's not just hype. It is a storm called Avery, and one poster already has proven it is not going to be pleasant. "snow in Monroe, Louisiana".
Piacere, get ready.
Hi gina. Got about a half a foot then rain. Just a big pile of slush now 
