This is an article written by Nate Silver. For those who are unfamiliar with him, he is an expert at predicting presidential races. He also is one of the earliest developers in sabermetrics in baseball.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/
This is an article written by Nate Silver. For those who are unfamiliar with him, he is an expert at predicting presidential races. He also is one of the earliest developers in sabermetrics in baseball.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/
I've always enjoyed reading his articles & takes on political races - great use of analytics to forecast. Winner!
after Trump has said that he has no loyalty to the GOP unless they nominate him, will he really run against them?
is he really a Liberal Mole?
😛 😛 😛
after Trump has said that he has no loyalty to the GOP unless they nominate him, will he really run against them?
is he really a Liberal Mole?😛 😛 😛
Donald Trump is a wild card and a loose cannon. I honestly believe if he were to suddenly drop dead, there would be a party that would rival Fat Tuesday at the GOP headquarters. Hillary would cry like a baby in a 5 star restaurant. 😉
i just 4th beer thought of this, 4 one hits
instead of Trump going Independent, is there ....hmmm....could he.....legally....run as a Democrat and be able to join their debates? i mean, if things go south quickly. i'm not saying they are, but
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I am admittedly cynical when it comes to politics, but I seriously wonder (doubt, even) that Trump even really wants to be president. I think the best he can do is split the GOP vote down the middle - which will elect Hillary or whomever the Democrats put out there. I don't see him winning as an independent.
Diving into the Democrat race at this point? I'm no political expert, but is that even possible? Is there (was there) a deadline on registering for the party race?
4 one-hits, huh? Happy Friday to ya!
Trump is done, with this "blood coming out her eyes, blood coming out of her whatever..." comment. That was fatal.
The brighter stars burn out the fastest. He was a ball of fire weeks ago, but he seems to be starting a a fast fade. He'll be a cinder by election time. The best he can achieve is to be a spoiler for the party he now (presumably) hopes to lead. The Democrats are starting laugh a little louder.
Trump may have trouble running as an independent as some states have so called "sore loser" laws. That means that if a candidate declares for a party in the primaries, he is not eligible to run as an independent. In Ohio, for example, he is already barred because he is a declared candidate. I am not sure how many states have this law, but it seems Trump may find running as an independent as being not a viable option.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/14/opinion/trumps-economic-muddle.html
The Opinion Pages | Contributing Op-Ed Writer Steven Rattner
Trump’s Economic Muddle
AUG. 14, 2015
DONALD TRUMP’S economic views may not have garnered as much attention as his misogynistic statements, but they are equally unpalatable, evincing a lack of understanding of basic economics that is startling for a billionaire businessman.
While Mr. Trump has not provided specifics much beyond the “Make America Great Again” slogan featured on his often-present baseball cap, strands of Trumponomics have trickled out amid the stream of braggadocio and ad hominem attacks on his critics.
And what bizarre views they are — a curious mélange of populism and hard-right conservatism, inherently contradictory perspectives that often lie far outside the boundaries of accepted economic thought.
Take, for example, what seems to be his “No. 1” issue: trade. Mr. Trump believes the Chinese (and others) have been playing us for fools; using cheap labor, currency manipulation and trade barriers to favor their exports and limit our imports.
In Mr. Trump’s mind (although not in the minds of serious economists), that’s why we’ve lost five million manufacturing jobs since 2000.
The Chinese are certainly protectionists, but a shift in manufacturing jobs was inevitable. For centuries, as countries have developed, the locus of jobs has shifted based on comparative advantage.
Moreover, many of those manufacturing jobs weren’t lost to other countries but to growing efficiency, just as employment in agriculture in the United States has fallen even as output has risen.
No policies could reverse tectonic forces of this magnitude, and in suggesting that there are remedies, Mr. Trump is cynically misleading the American public.
Still worse are his notions for how to bring jobs home, particularly his call for huge tariffs. At various times, he has proposed levies of 25 percent on imports from China and 35 percent on Ford vehicles assembled in Mexico. That would significantly raise prices for Americans and unleash retaliatory moves.
Another tenet of his trade policy would be a weaker dollar, which would discourage imports by making them more expensive and increase the competitiveness of American exports.
But a weaker dollar depends on low American interest rates, and Mr. Trump has separately decried the expansionary monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.
In that criticism, Mr. Trump has been aligned with a flotilla of staunch conservatives who have argued for years that maintaining interest rates near zero is certain to unleash asset bubbles and rampant inflation.
To date, that view has proved utterly wrong. Low interest rates have helped our economic recovery. And not only is inflation nowhere to be seen, but the prices of key barometers, like commodities and energy, are falling.
The list of Mr. Trump’s wrongheaded ideas goes on and on: We shouldn’t increase the minimum wage, which is well below historic levels, after adjustment for inflation. Corporate taxes should be eliminated. Global warming is a fantasy.
By some estimates, Mr. Trump’s proposal to build a wall along the Mexican border would cost billions and his plan to deport 11.5 million undocumented immigrants could cost at least $400 billion over 20 years, while losing the services of millions of workers would significantly dent economic growth.
When challenged on his more outlandish ideas, Mr. Trump retreats into chest thumping, with comments like “you have to let me handle that, O.K.?”
At times, Mr. Trump goes on the attack without actually disagreeing. The Affordable Care Act should be abolished, but his suggested replacement bears considerable resemblance to President Obama’s plan. He has pushed for even greater involvement by government in health care, praising the single-payer models of Canada and Scotland.
I guess a foolish inconsistency can also be the hobgoblin of a big mind.
When it comes to budgets, Mr. Trump’s numbers (were he ever to release any) couldn’t possibly add up.
He wants to build infrastructure, bolster defense and the Department of Veterans Affairs, cut taxes and protect Social Security and Medicare from any trims, all while proclaiming that he’s a fiscal conservative.
In 1999, to address the problem of too much federal debt, Mr. Trump proposed a one-time, 14.25 percent wealth tax on the very rich. Fortunately, the idea never gained traction; a $5.7 trillion tax increase would have plunged the economy into recession, if not depression.
In the Republican debate, Mr. Trump, who has watched four of his companies slide into bankruptcy, said of the nation’s debt mountain: “They need somebody like me to straighten out that mess.”
Confronted recently by one journalist about his policy prescriptions, Mr. Trump replied: “You’ll be happy, believe me. You’ll be happy.” I’ll be happy when he is off the stage.
Steven Rattner is a Wall Street executive and contributing opinion writer.
The fair haired boy reports for JURY DUTY in lower Manhattan next Monday. I cannot imagine.
Trump said last week he’s looking forward to reporting for duty on Monday.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/18/politics/donald-trump-immigration-policy-tweets/index.html
Donald Trump undermines his own immigration policy
By Jeremy Diamond, CNN?Updated 3:49 PM ET, Tue August 18, 2015
(CNN)—Donald Trump appeared to contradict his own immigration policy proposal Tuesday, just two days after releasing a detailed outline of his plans.
Trump said he wants foreigners who study at American universities to be able to stay in the U.S., but his immigration plan released Sunday would make it more difficult for foreigners to obtain certain visas and green cards that would allow them to remain and work in the U.S. legally.
"When foreigners attend our great colleges & want to stay in the U.S., they should not be thrown out of our country," Trump tweeted on Tuesday. "I want talented people to come into this country -- to work hard and become citizens. Silicon Valley needs engineers, etc."
But in a section of his immigration proposal entitled "Put American Workers First," Trump blames "the influx of foreign workers" for keeping salaries from growing, keeping unemployment high and making it difficult for "poor and working class Americans ... to earn a middle class wage."
CNN reached out to Trump's campaign to explain the discrepancy, but the they have yet to respond.
And while Trump insisted Tuesday that "Silicon Valley needs engineers" and suggested foreigners could fill that void, Trump's plan would make it more difficult for companies to hire foreigners with degrees in the STEM fields (science, technology, engineering and mathematics).
Trump proposed tightening requirements on H-1B visas, which companies use to hire foreigners in the STEM fields, by raising the salary threshold for those visas and requiring employers to first hire Americans before considering foreign hires.
Trump also proposed a temporary freeze on issuing new green cards, calling for "a pause where employers will have to hire from the domestic pool of unemployed immigrant and native workers."
And not only is inflation nowhere to be seen
Somebody's not looking far enough....
