Badgers fire Chryst. Not surprised, but surprised it happened now. He's had a nice run but W will plug the hole before the ship sinks. And the Big 10, uh, West is usually weak enough to be a toss up between UW and Iowa (remember when Nebraska was a premiere program?). Losing to Bielema (who is a douche) was just salt on the wound. I also think they want to make sure they hold on to Jim Leonhard, he's had a lot of offers the past few years.

Losing to Illinois doesn't help anybody ... 🤣 

Yeah, they'll let anyone into that school! 😉 

plugging the hole before the ship sinks is a great analogy.  They lost to Washington State and Illinois at home. The Washington State game was a little weird, but W St D really did what it took to win the game.  Illinois flat out blew them out from halftime on. 

It's like with Iowa.  And these days are so different, but...are you happy and content every 3rd or 4th year maybe having a really good team that competes for a conference title (and typically would lose that opportunity)?  Pressure is up.  Expectations are up.  10+ years ago you suggest fire a guy like Chryst with that record and that resume and you'd be laughed at. Now, that is what it takes to make the moves of a big time program who wants to be relevant.  You watch Wisconsin this year?  I get why they fired him.  Now Leonhard is a great DC, might be a good HC - but they need to make that offense matter to have a chance if they want to play with the big boys, and by firing Chryst this early in the season, they want to.  Lance Leipold HC and keep Leonhard as a 2 million dollar a year D-coordinator?  Probably works. Lots of people going to be fighting for Leipold, flat out winner

@nebish and let's be honest, Wisconsin will always be an excellent program (8-10 wins per year and a solid bowl game), but it will never be Ohio State or Michigan annually competing for a playoff spot. They had their BIG10 West fiefdom, but with the BIG10 going coast-to-coast with USC and UCLA in the mix, they have to raise their game if they want to stay afloat or they become Purdue or Nebraska.

Wisconsin should always be an 8-10 win program, but:

1) apparently that wasn't good enough because they just fired a guy that had them always as an 8-10 win program

2) there is no guarantee in the immediate aftermath that it improves, it could get worse.  Tennessee post Fulmer, Michigan post Carr, Nebraska post Solich.  The one thing those examples have in common with Wisconsin is they were all had good recent seasons, but also evidence they were slipping and the status quo wasn't good enough.  In a quest to improve, they actually got worse for a number of years with several coaching changes taking place.

That is just today's football with the money and the pressure and the recruiting, NIL, transfers, the pressure to win has never been bigger and I think Wisconsin is clearly saying 8-10 wins a year is not good enough.  Teams/coaches, rarely get the benefit of an off year now.  Wisconsin wants something more - can they, will they get it?  Nothing is a sure thing going forward, they just fired the 8-10 win a year sure thing.

This is maybe the most proactive moves I can think of and it is quite risky.  I don't disagree with the reasoning behind it, I see it, but it is ballsy.  That is what has become of major college football.  Good enough isn't good enough, fire the third most winning head coach in team history, who never had a losing record and excelled in post season games. Just as 9 wins a year under Pelini weren't good enough for Nebraska, the 8-10 wins a year for Wisconsin also, apparently isn't good enough.  We'll see what they come up with to fix that. 

Woohoo - won the pool 2 weeks in a row ... probably means I'll get 5 right next week ... 

This should be a great Saturday (Last night's West Virginia/Baylor game was a good prelude). I think the big three are:

Michigan/Penn St. Even as a Michigan fan I am leery about giving a TD.

Alabama/Tennessee I picked The Volunteers regardless of whether Bryce Young plays or not. Which looks iffy at the moment.

USC/Utah Not sure what to do with this. But I took USC and the points since they are getting the hook.

Still several other good ones.

Clemson/Florida State Not sure why the line isn't higher.

NC St/Syracuse i don't trust Syracuse, even at home.

Mississippi St/Kentucky I think Kentucky is overrated.

Kansas/Oklahoma Too many points.

Oklahoma St/TCU I picked OSU to win as a road dog.

Texas/Iowa St I have no idea why the line is that high. Texas should win but I am taking the points.

LSU/Florida A very important SEC game. 

And the HUGE game. My buddy from Wisconsin bet me a beer on the Wisconsin/Michigan St game. 😀 

Great day of college football for sure.  I'm almost 15 hours in, rounding it out by finishing the Nevada-Hawaii game.

Lots of fun today.  Some random thoughts:

Brutal beat for Akron straight up, but they are used to that. Central Michigan returned a fumble like 60+ yards for the win in the final minute when Akron was positioning for a potential game winning FG in a tie game. Although Akron had already missed 2 FGs on the day.

2H Min-Ill Under 21 wins despite Minn essentially having a KO ret TD (to the 5 and they punched it in from there next play)...and I think ILL got a TD within the first couple minutes too of the 3rd Q...14 pts in the first 5min of the 2H...and it stayed Under 21, they scored 20. That's going in my hall of fame of Unders.

Nice win for Bowling Green.

Old Dominion - WOW ... Coastal Carolina - WOW

Texas definitely looked hung over I think. There were times it looked like their D was just not moving very fast, ISU guys in space and making plays. Tough loss for the Clones, on this particular day it felt like they were better team.

Last week was fake VT O. They are not really the team that scored 29 pts and had 400y last week vs Pitt. Today, as it was in their other games, the real VT O gets shut out at home for 3 Q and accumulates most of their yards as they try to catch up late. But they covered...

Was watching UConn off and on, looked pretty sure they were going to win, turned it back on and they were losing in the final minute without the ball. I'll have to look and see how that happened.

Colorado storms the field! Cal loses to the 2 worst teams in league in back-to-back years. I know last year was covid riddled team vs Arizona, but it what it is and today they lose to Colorado. Which if CU was going to put together at game, it was going to be today, but still, from a Cal perspective, that is inexcusable. Buffs do have good fans despite how bad they are, people still show up to their home games in good numbers.

So Kent State did the old switch-a-roo today. Instead of playing bad in the 1H and having to mount a comeback to salvage a win or 2H cover or something, no today, they were gang busters in the 1H....and I think they didn't score a single point in the 2H. Hmmm....

Did Tennessee fans get the goalposts out of Neyland?  Bryce Young proves again even in a loss, he is the best player in college football.

After a few years of some really good D in the Big Xll, the old Big Xll is reemerging, atleast for some of the league. Big comeback by TCU. Big comeback for Kansas to push on 10

Teams that suck with a former player as head coach....Western Michigan. That teams just gets worse every year it seems.

Tough break for USF to lose their QB in the 2Q. They kept it close for a bit (tied 17-17 3rd Q), then just couldn't get stops, handed Tulane free points and then couldn't keep up. Feels kinda wrong they didn't atleast cover, but you lose your QB that can happen.

Georgia Southern was a fun win for those guys.

Wisconsin is 1-1 the last two games. What would Paul Chryst's record be? I know it isn't about that, but I don't get exactly what is going to be different with the current staff with him gone. There must be something else in play here.

Tough loss for Arkansas State. They've had more than their share of that this year

I knew ECU would do their best to try to lose, you just can't lay points with them - I mean sometimes they cover as favs, it's just difficult

Stanford. You know, college kids are more resilient than they get credit for sometimes. The manner in which they lost the Oregon State game was most devastating. But David Shaw said post-game it was their best game of the year, and it was, but they had their heart ripped out. Credit to them to show up, play tough and find a way to get that win in South Bend.

Duke...talk about excruciating losses

USC - Utah, that was awesome! The drama in the final minutes of that game, the crowd, what a great game and finish to witness

Yesterday was fun as all Saturdays are. I was curious how the rankings would play out given the games. I knew there would be a lot of movement.

Tennessee all the way to three.

Michigan flip flopping with Clemson. Not sure why. I guess because they handled a tenth ranked team. The second half was amazing.

The Alabama / Tennessee game was one of the best games I have seen in a LONG time.

Ole Miss seven?

Illinois surprised me.

It's early so a lot of this stuff really doesn't mean too much in my mind but it is still fun.

ncaa football rankings - Search (bing.com)

Posted by: @nebish

... Did Tennessee fans get the goalposts out of Neyland?  Bryce Young proves again even in a loss, he is the best player in college football. ...

52 - 49 !  To paraphrase Lane Kiffen, Does anybody in the SEC play defense anymore?  As a BAMA fan/Alum, I know I'm speaking from the heart but Bryce Young is the most composed player that I have ever seen ... at any level!  I give everything to Tennessee - they won one of the hardest fought games that I have ever witnessed.  I don't mean to whine but I do have to ask about the non-targeting call.  Even the CBS announcers opined that, "if this is not targeting, tell me what is?".  Bryce took some solid hits all day long.  I don't think there's a tougher kid in the NCAA program!  Congrats and kudos to the Vol's.

I gave up on media and coaches rankings, never look or notice any longer.  I do like to look at something like the Sagarin rankings every now and then.  Not for who he ranks at the top or in the first 20, instead, I find more value in his rankings towards the middle / bottom and seeing where the FCS teams start to blend in with the FBS teams.  It's a Power Rating type ranking so point spread assumptions can be drawn from it.  USA Today's published lines in their paper used to come from him.  USA Today probably uses some paid sponsor lines like BetMGM or DraftKings or something now.  Sagarin was part of the BCS computer ranking collection.

https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2022-2/college-football-team-ratings-2022/

Posted by: @rusty

Does anybody in the SEC play defense anymore?

Well, yes.  Tennessee has a poor D.  Alabama's secondary is quite a bit down to their normal standards.  But offenses have taken over.

I'm sure you know, and I give Saban a ton of credit.  He saw the future of the game, where we are now, maybe 5 or a little more years ago.  The rules, the play calling, the tempo, it was all tilted towards the Os and the Ds were at a decided disadvantage.  What to do?  Go all in on the O because when you play the best, your best shot is to out score them.  Defense wins championships isn't quite dead (Georgia), but it's on life support.  You can get through the season and early playoff games with a great D, but when you are in a game vs a really outstanding O, the D doesn't stand a chance.  Great O will beat Great D most every time.  Last year for instance, if Alabama was at full strength in that title game, Georgia isn't holding them below 20.  No way, no how.

@rusty 

I think Bryce Young wins the Heisman. I read a mock draft and if the Lions pick third (which they would be today) they will take him. Goff is a serviceable QB. Not a future guy. The knock on him is the fact that he isn't over 6 feet tall. I say take him.

@lee As recently as 5 years ago, I would've imagined that someone of Bryce Young's stature would not be tall/big enough for the NFL.  But QB's like Deshaun Watson (PR issues aside), Tua and a few others have really changed the way that the game is played.  I don't watch a lot of NFL, but my current favorite is Jalen Hurts.  I hope that Nick Saban writes a book (or another book?) and details the agonizing thought process that he must've gone through when deciding whether to keep Jalen or Tua at Alabama.  I'm sure there was more than just his own decision at play, but after Tua went down with injuries I am sure that he had some "I wish I'd kept Jalen" thoughts.  Fortunately, they had a sleeper in Mack Jones - who, before getting injured himself was having a great career in New England.  I actually became a part-time Oklahoma fan for the season that Jalen played there!  😉

Posted by: @sang

Woohoo - won the pool 2 weeks in a row ... probably means I'll get 5 right next week ... 

So I won the last two weeks (against the spread) and in my straight up pool I went 11 and 15 two weeks ago and 12 and 14 this week. Terrible. Now, you would think it is easier to pick straight up without the spread but apparently not. At least for me. I often like taking the spreads. Especially in college.

Yes, you as the winner at less than 50% - I've said it before, but college football with the spread might as well be a coinflip.  Yes, Alabama will win, but will they beat a 35 point spread ... that's what makes it difficult.

People who really are serious about sports gambling always say that college sports is easier to handicap because edges can be found.  They know when a number is too high, they know when a number is too low, they know when a number is fair.  The lines in college move a ton and over / unders move even more.  The opening lines get released Sunday evening and that is when the professionals and the serious handicappers make their wagers so they can beat the moves and lock in the best numbers. 

Pointspreads move like a price of a stock, as people buy and sell, it goes up and down.  As the game gets closer to kickoff, they believe the market ultimately figures what is the fair line or total for a game.

In the NFL, lines move very little unless there is an injury.  A line might open at 4, maybe it goes to 5.5 by gametime with a lot of action on one side and no injury news.  College lines, they can move 7 points or more from open.

Anyway, while it would seem like college is harder, to the people that know, it is easier.

I'm not anywhere close to a professional and I don't call myself a handicapper either.  I'm a gambler.  I enjoy the process that is all.  I have always done better in NFL.  Not bragging, but I think my performance in our NFL pick'em through the years says it - small sample size though.  I enjoy college more but it is much more unpredictable because they are amateur athletes with things in there life often more important that football.  Young people, the lack consistency and sometimes responsibility.  People will sometimes say how crazy college games and every year is more and more crazy - no, every year is the same, equally crazy and unpredictable and unexpected and all that, which is why I love it.  I love the unpredictability of college football, which makes it incredibly difficult to bet on outcomes.  I don't know how the pros do it, but like I said, they are betting numbers that are never available to public people like us.

So I've tried to carve out a niche within my college football bets, trying to predict the unpredictable before it happens.  The upsets.  Sometimes it works great, you only have to get like 1 out of 3 right to make money.  This week I only won 1 out of 6.  ECU was my only winner.  A few weeks ago I bet both UConn and Georgia Tech to win straight up.  They were both 20 point underdogs.  Now, that is fun!

I also started betting first half lines in every game I play, and I often follow it up with second half lines.  Sometimes you go 3-0, sometimes you go 2-1, 1-2 or the dreaded 0-3.  0-3 tells you obviously it was a bad bet and maybe you get smarter next time.  I did it last night with Pittsburgh, went 2-1.  I like doing it with dogs.  I really don't like betting favorites.  I love betting underdogs because if you're wrong on the team, atleast you get a little insurance with plus pts.  I do bet favorites in the NFL more just because most of the time the lines are pretty low.  I rarely lay anything 7 or above.  And in college, I nearly exclusively only bet underdogs.

The athletic "off platform" college QB is so accepted now in the NFL that they will give just about anyone a chance.  Which is fine.  But what these teams should not do is renew contracts for players who aren't producing.  Like Kyler Murray.  Or Justin Fields, I think the Bears will actually be smart and not renew him.  Even Baltimore and Lamar Jackson, I'm not sure they should resign him.  He is tremendously talented.  But in all honesty, the type of QBs that are getting drafted and starting in the NFL now, they are all kind of the same and they are plentiful in the draft every year.  Some are busts, some are not.  The opportunity they get now, I think, makes trying to hit on rookie QBs much easier now that it ever has been.

Bryce Young is the best QB in college right now and it isn't close.  There are other very good ones, but Bryce is special.  And after him, there will be somebody else and somebody else and somebody else.  If I were an executive I would try and draft a new QB high to somewhat high in the draft every 3-4 years.  Having the right QB is still as important as ever, but the way the game is played now, the available pool they are willing to draft from now is larger.

It is so painful watching a guy like Matt Ryan behind that OL.  And Brady, I like Tom Brady because I respect how good he has been for so long.  But it's hard right now.  I don't like seeing that.

Some guys run around too much, some guys have the right balance.  Really, the statue QBs, guys like Brady and Ryan, their day in the NFL is all but done.

Posted by: @sang

Yes, you as the winner at less than 50% - I've said it before, but college football with the spread might as well be a coinflip.  Yes, Alabama will win, but will they beat a 35 point spread ... that's what makes it difficult.

Yeah I know the season picks totals. My point is just that I might like a team to win straight up but not cover the line. Seems counterintuitive but that's how it seems to play out.

And over/unders in college I won't touch because of the overtime rules. Whatever they are this week. NFL as well. You are definitely hoping to take an over in college as they go to six or seven OT/s. 

@nebish 

Here are some things I kind of stick to. For college, I look at the team's schedule. Say they have a big game next week against a ranked and/or rival. Will the favorite take the current team for granted and not cover? Happens a lot.

For the NFL, I typically take home underdogs. I haven't run the numbers on it but it always seems to work for me. If you are getting points on your field, run with it.

Finally, find Chicago Bears fans and bet them. Whatever the line is, a diehard Bears fan will more than likely bet against you. 

Easy money...  

Here is some perspective on the college pick'em.  I set up the exact same pick'em on yahoo for another message board I am active at that deals with sports gambling.  There were 35 people signed up, but you know, not everyone sticks with it.

The leader in that pick'em has 102 correct.  My tally of 88 which currently leads our pick'em would rank 11th in that pick'em.  Just when you thought you were doing good huh Sang?

Some of the people on that board and in that pick'em are pretty savy.  And actually a few people specifically declined because they didn't want to pick so many games that they had no desire to pick a side on.  Some of those people get real real selective on their picks.  Me?  I literally make like over 60, I counted one Saturday I made 92 bets.  It's a hobby.  Hobbies cost money.  Sometimes I do good, sometimes I don't.  Point is as long as I'm having fun.  I think the pick'ems are fun.  Even ours with our limited participation, I enjoy it all the same if it is just 4 of us or 40 people. I have to say it takes me probably 30 seconds or less every week.  Generally I know the team I would pick in any given game if I had to.  I don't handicap anything in a technical sense for the pickems - not like any of us do!

So who the Bears fans betting tonight? - wrong thread.

Every week I print the ncsports.com schedule/logs and I look it over.  Just like you say Lee, I want to see who did they just play, how did it go was it a tough game, a close late win/loss, who is on deck, then I have to have some general knowledge of the previous game(s) box scores, was it a misleading win or loss, did the game see the outcome it should have.  What was last year's game like between the two teams.  So many intangibles in college that sometimes matter and sometimes don't.  College teams are just very inconsistent.  Except for say Alabama, the elite teams are pro-level consistent and they normally have better coaches and players than their opponents.  If I was smart I would only bet the top 10 teams every week.  Look at their logs, Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, etc - they cover and they cover a lot.  But I don't want to win that way.  I want those teams to lose and take no pleasure in winning bets on them. 

My philosophy on road teams / home teams is I heavily bet road teams because of better lines.  Homefield advantage in the NFL, in my opinion, means very little.  I was just at the KC Chiefs game.  Most likely the best home game environment I have ever been apart of...and the Raiders nearly won that game.  Doesn't matter, Raiders covered 1H and full game (I actually bet KC for the 2H at HT because they were trailing and had a better number, something I do often when a favorite is down at HT).  I really don't bet the teams as much as I do the numbers and situations.  Home dogs in the NFL, as a dog bettor in general I'd endorse that.  But I'd bet the road favorite if I like it because they are laying less on the road than they would be at home vs the same team.  I'm very adverse to laying a lot of points.  In the NFL, laying close to 7 is a lot.  I don't like to do that and normally don't.

Now in college football, I love home dogs.  How about some Wazzou Thursday night on the Palouse?  You on board?

Well the Bruins are the Bruins.  Still not ready for prime time.  Got worked by Oregon and deservedly so.  This week's game scares the heck out of me.  Stanford comes to town and appears to be getting on track after a couple of wins including @ ND.  If UCLA doesn't bring its A game, it will be long drive home.

UCLA had their A game 1H.  Stanford finally scored a TD again in the 2H.  Think it had been coming up on almost 2 full games since they scored a TD.

PAC 12 has been entertaining this year, I always like that league.

UCLA is still right there in the hunt.  The Oregon game, well, they had no D, but the Oregon onside kick, all the ballsy Oregon 4th down calls....and all those UCLA FGs.  UCLA is still a pretty good team this year in my mind.  Oregon was just better that day.

Posted by: @nebish

UCLA had their A game 1H.  Stanford finally scored a TD again in the 2H.  Think it had been coming up on almost 2 full games since they scored a TD.

PAC 12 has been entertaining this year, I always like that league.

UCLA is still right there in the hunt.  The Oregon game, well, they had no D, but the Oregon onside kick, all the ballsy Oregon 4th down calls....and all those UCLA FGs.  UCLA is still a pretty good team this year in my mind.  Oregon was just better that day.

Thanks Nebish.  I was surprised at how poor Stanford play.  QB was slow etc.  Score wasn't as close as the game.  While I like Shaw, it's always good to send him home packing.

As of today, Bruins and trojans are on a collision course with 1 loss each.  I'd love it but as the saying goes, "Lots of football still to play."  We'll see.

USC is just fun to hate so I'd love to see UCLA beat them and actually I'd be plenty happy to see UCLA and Kelly and DTR finally make it to the mountain top. 

ASU could be tricky this week they have shown some offense for sure. Beat UW at home a few weeks back. I think UCLA will win, but might be a good one. 

Had a good week in the college pool, not so much in the NFL pool.   If we hadn't dropped the worst week, nebish, Lee and I would all be tied for first.  Looks like nebish is running away with the NFL pool ...   At least I'm ahead of @DanB in both of them ... 

@sang 

Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Who has won four, count 'em FOUR consecutive weeks to take the lead?