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Arizona goes blue - Biden wins AZ

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goldtop
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For the first time in 72 years AZ voted Blue....geez I wonder why....discuss


This topic was modified 5 years ago by goldtop
 
Posted : November 13, 2020 1:21 am
nebish
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For the first time since 1972 my county voted Republican for President.  I don't know why.


 
Posted : November 13, 2020 1:25 am
2112
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Posted by: @goldtop

For the first time in 72 years AZ voted Blue....geez I wonder why....discuss

It's been heading that way for a while. Part of it is Californian moving there. Part of it is an increasing Latino population. Trump did himself no favors by continuing to go after McCain. Arizona, although it has been Republican for years, many of the Republicans in office there are more independent minded and don't tow the party line, such as McCain and Jeff Flake.


 
Posted : November 13, 2020 3:53 am
2112
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Posted by: @nebish

For the first time since 1972 my county voted Republican for President.  I don't know why.

Seems like Ohio is no longer a swing state. You're in a better position than we are to tell us why, because I have no idea.


 
Posted : November 13, 2020 3:55 am
porkchopbob
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Posted by: @goldtop

For the first time in 72 years AZ voted Blue....geez I wonder why....discuss

Bill Clinton won AZ in 1996, thanks to Perot splitting the vote. But yeah, you have to go back to Truman before that.

 


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Posted : November 13, 2020 10:24 am
porkchopbob
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It's been heading that way for a while. Part of it is Californian moving there. Part of it is an increasing Latino population. Trump did himself no favors by continuing to go after McCain. Arizona, although it has been Republican for years, many of the Republicans in office there are more independent minded and don't tow the party line, such as McCain and Jeff Flake.

There's a lot of talk about the "Latino" vote as if it's all the same, but that's like saying the "European" vote. The Cubans and Venezuelans in Miami are not the same as the Mexicans and Guatemalans in the southwest.

The McCain bashing has to have been some what of a factor. But the population increase over the past 20 years in Arizona has been enormous, lots of young people and lots of retirees. That's definitely going to change the state, especially in urban areas.


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Posted : November 13, 2020 10:30 am
nebish
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Posted by: @2112
Posted by: @nebish

For the first time since 1972 my county voted Republican for President.  I don't know why.

Seems like Ohio is no longer a swing state. You're in a better position than we are to tell us why, because I have no idea.

I haven't read much of the follow up.  My perception is that Youngstown and the Mahoning and Trumbull counties going Trump express continued dissatisfaction with Democrat leadership and policies.  These counties used to be Democrat strong holds for many decades, 50-60 years, and it hasn't done much good.  Trumbull went Trump again this time after never having gone red for several decades.  This time Mahoning joined. 

 

As for Ohio in general, I don't know.  I thought it would be closer.  Seems Trump was able to grow his support here more than Biden was able to grow his vote count vs Clinton's. 

 


 
Posted : November 13, 2020 11:03 am
goldtop
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@porkchopbob opps my bad I think they said 72years for Maricopa co....


 
Posted : November 13, 2020 11:17 am
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2112
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Posted by: @nebish
Posted by: @2112
Posted by: @nebish

For the first time since 1972 my county voted Republican for President.  I don't know why.

Seems like Ohio is no longer a swing state. You're in a better position than we are to tell us why, because I have no idea.

I haven't read much of the follow up.  My perception is that Youngstown and the Mahoning and Trumbull counties going Trump express continued dissatisfaction with Democrat leadership and policies.  These counties used to be Democrat strong holds for many decades, 50-60 years, and it hasn't done much good.  Trumbull went Trump again this time after never having gone red for several decades.  This time Mahoning joined. 

 

As for Ohio in general, I don't know.  I thought it would be closer.  Seems Trump was able to grow his support here more than Biden was able to grow his vote count vs Clinton's. 

 

I'm going to guess that Democrat support from Ohio has historically been related to Democrat support of labor unions. Even though Democrats still support labor unions more than Republicans, that support isn't what most people think of when they think about modern Democrats. Further, unions are just not the driving force they once were.

That said, urban areas are today's Democrats strongholds, and Ohio has 3 sizeable cities. I'm not sure what the breakdown in population is in Ohio for urban vs rural, but the state has definitely shifted red, even more than Florida has. On the opposite side, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas are shifting blue, although Texas might need a couple more election cycles before it is a true swing state.


 
Posted : November 13, 2020 1:37 pm
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