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Author: Subject: Why do Americans think Trump will win despite being behind in the polls?

Peach Extraordinaire





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  posted on 5/14/2020 at 08:29 PM
I thought this was an interesting discussion:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/if-trump-is-down-in-the-polls-why-do-s o-many-americans-think-hell-win/

 
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True Peach



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  posted on 5/14/2020 at 08:47 PM
He will lie and cheat his way to a second term. And the same dummies will lap up his same steaming **** ipile.
 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/14/2020 at 09:03 PM
quote:
One thing thatís stood out to me is Trumpís lost points among voters who donít like either candidate running. In 2016, Trump won these voters by a large margin, but here in 2020, theyíre breaking overwhelmingly for Biden.


That is an interesting statement.

 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/14/2020 at 09:11 PM
quote:
Of course, one point in Trumpís favor is that thereís little evidence that Biden has made progress in winning back the white voters without a college degree who supported Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016.


What will Bernie's supporters do.

I'm on the Bernie email lists. Subject matter often pertains to how they (the new progressives) are going to influence the party and issues. Here is one quote from a recent email:

"Recently, Our Revolution activists in Wisconsin, Nebraska, Massachusetts, and California played an important role in securing the recent deal struck with the Biden campaign that will allow more progressive influence over the Democratic Party rules and policy platform."

I kinda just wish Biden could stand on his own, but you could see him bending Bernie's way when they still had the last debate. Bernie laughs that all his opponents do that to him. Guess that is a win for Bernie's cause though.

Will Biden be a zombie President that just gets filled with and pushed and pulled where certain party interests want him as opposed to standing and pushing for his principles. His principles now might just become everyone else's principles who influence him. Suppose the left won't mind that though.

 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/14/2020 at 09:18 PM
I think he loses.


Still Friday May 1st Gallup had Trump hitting an all-time high of 49%.


And the CNN Battleground state poll:


quote:
(CNN)Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden's lead over President Donald Trump now stands at five points, but Trump has an edge in the critical battleground states that could decide the electoral college, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

In the new poll, 51% of registered voters nationwide back Biden, while 46% say they prefer Trump, while in the battlegrounds, 52% favor Trump and 45% Biden.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/politics/cnn-poll-2020/index.html


 

Extreme Peach



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  posted on 5/14/2020 at 09:48 PM
I think it's far too early to predict anything. Trump's opponent isn't Biden, it's COVID-19 & no one knows where that's going. The fact that it is in the WH is telling. I don't trust any further info from the WH re staffers' test results or illness - any new cases will be that the staffer was working from home whether that's true or not.

The big question for me re opening is will people actually go out? Yes, businesses will be allowed to re-open, but 1) will they? 2) will people patronize re-opened businesses or continue to stay home? 3) what happens to the curve?

And, what will be discovered about children? Previously thought to be untouched, kids are now not only getting infected but the symptoms are unusual. Kids have died. Even if local school districts re-open schools in later in the fall, are parents going to send their kids back? Are teachers going to return?

The course of COVID19 over the summer is more meaningful to me than polls.

 

Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 5/14/2020 at 10:05 PM
quote:
I think he loses.


Still Friday May 1st Gallup had Trump hitting an all-time high of 49%.


And the CNN Battleground state poll:


quote:
(CNN)Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden's lead over President Donald Trump now stands at five points, but Trump has an edge in the critical battleground states that could decide the electoral college, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

In the new poll, 51% of registered voters nationwide back Biden, while 46% say they prefer Trump, while in the battlegrounds, 52% favor Trump and 45% Biden.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/politics/cnn-poll-2020/index.html




Here is a link to almost every relevant poll. Looks like Biden is winning most of the swing states to me:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 5/14/2020 at 10:08 PM
The same Polls that Hillary winning in a Landslide?

 

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That Pro-Abortion chant, "My body, my choice"....Can this be applied to the wearing of masks?

 

Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 5/14/2020 at 10:17 PM
quote:
The same Polls that Hillary winning in a Landslide?


Read the discussion on the link. The polls never said Hillary would win in a landslide. They were off in 3 key states. Nationally the polls said Hillary would win the popular vote by 2% and she did. As I have said over and over, the national polls don't mean much, and the only thing that matters is a few key swing states. But again, I suggest you read the discussion and then I would love to hear your input.

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 5/14/2020 at 10:31 PM
quote:
As I have said over and over, the national polls don't mean much


Yet the link you posted mentions polls dozens of times

 

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That Pro-Abortion chant, "My body, my choice"....Can this be applied to the wearing of masks?

 

Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 5/14/2020 at 11:18 PM
quote:
quote:
As I have said over and over, the national polls don't mean much


Yet the link you posted mentions polls dozens of times


Of course it does, because it is a discussion trying to make sense of the available data.

 

Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 06:35 AM
Yet another thread dragging HC in. She's history. Not the same race this time around with completely different variables.

Anybody still want believe HC will either be the nominee or VP candidate? If so, enter the Charity Challenge. For anybody who has already taken the bet, want to add more to your bet? I'll lay 2:1 odds on the any incremental bets. Think about it, if you add to your bet for every $100, and if you win, you get $200.

[Edited on 5/15/2020 by MartinD28]

 

Extreme Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 07:46 AM
quote:
The same Polls that Hillary winning in a Landslide?

No polls from 2016 should be compared to 2020. We live in the present. Past polls have been wrong. Some have been corrected, fine-tuned, & re-examined. The accuracy of the current polls won't be known until November - in hindsight. Polls mostly tell candidates where to spend money. They're really not useful to voters.

And FFS, no one wants to hear about HRC - not those who despise her nor those who voted for her. She's a non-entity in the 2020 race.

 

World Class Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 08:31 AM
It's still early.
This time in 92 I don't think anyone thought Clinton would win. Probably same for 96, and the same for 2012 with Obama.

Trump and the GOP are going to try and continue to restrict voting and prevent turnout.

and of course Trump continues to create "facts" out of thin air, though I think the only people that believe him will vote for him no matter what

 

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Extreme Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 08:39 AM
quote:
It's still early.


Completely agree.

I don't think the course of COVID19 can be underestimated - especially if there is a resurgence in the fall & voting is not conducted by in-person ballots at monitored precincts.

 

Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 08:47 AM
quote:
quote:
It's still early.


Completely agree.

I don't think the course of COVID19 can be underestimated - especially if there is a resurgence in the fall & voting is not conducted by in-person ballots at monitored precincts.


Correct.

Covid is more than a wild card. It can impact voter turnout or how successful or repressive vote by mail is. Also Covid will play a role in how a % of voters look at how Trump did or didn't lead or respond. Finally, the state of the pandemic, cases, deaths, and economy as we move into November will drive some voters.

Granted - many people have already made up their mind, but I suspect that Covid variables are enough to be a tilting point.

 

Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 08:58 AM
quote:

and of course Trump continues to create "facts" out of thin air, though I think the only people that believe him will vote for him no matter what


Yeah, over the past 3.5 years Trump's approval ratings have been remarkably steady. His fans love him no matter what he does, and they will show up and vote for him no matter what. Trump haters aren't going to vote for him no matter what, although if they stay home or vote for a 3rd party candidate it will boost Trump's chances immensely (a defacto vote for Trump).

The only wildcard is what happens in the super close swing states where a hundred votes one way or the other could change everything. Instead of spending money on TV ads, I'm surprised super rich people don't buy a second home in Florida and change residency for the election (like Trump did).

 

Peach Pro



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 09:34 AM
quote:
His fans love him no matter what he does...

"Trump's business partner in Indonesia exhumed graves in West Java to build resort"

"The remains of four of his relatives - two siblings, his great-grandfather and another relative - had been pulled from the ground without his consent, he and others in the community said, along with the bodies of Iyum's two girls. They had dug up the wrong people."

"Trump's foreign partners often lacked a reliable track record of real estate success. Some have faced allegations of corruption."

NO WAY, REALLY??

https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Trump-s-business-partner-in-Indonesia-e xhumed-15269874.php#photo-19412036

 

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Peach Pro



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 10:11 AM
His support base will vote for him no matter what he does. Some people hate the democrats so bad it doesn't matter what he says or does. It's ad that our population is so easily conned.
Like our cry baby president, his supporters would rather be with Russia than the democrats in the USA.
The dumbing down of America,

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 02:44 PM
quote:
Yet another thread dragging HC in.


Too funny. Tell me how that is any different than you and your little cabal finding a way to bring your hatred for President Trump into every political thread, regardless of the thread title?

 

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That Pro-Abortion chant, "My body, my choice"....Can this be applied to the wearing of masks?

 

Ultimate Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 05:16 PM
Hillary is so more lucid than Joe. If Hillary is in the past what is Joe Biden? The ghost of liberals past?

 

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Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 05:40 PM
quote:
Hillary is so more lucid than Joe. If Hillary is in the past what is Joe Biden? The ghost of liberals past?


What is Joe Biden? He is the Democratic nominee. Paint him however you like to try to get your boy elected. I'm sure Trump will try to project Biden as the devil, so you might as well start as well.

 

Extreme Peach



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  posted on 5/16/2020 at 09:55 AM
Well, certainly a lot of folks have bought in and completely thrown in with and completely sold their soul to The Trumpster Ideology??? Here is my personal touch for the day, being a long time Hoosier, sending some Hoosier pride......Peace

https://www.newsbreakapp.com/n/0P2n4ErN?s=a99&pd=05JiOiuk

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 5/16/2020 at 09:59 AM
quote:
Well, certainly a lot of folks have bought in and completely thrown in with and completely sold their soul to The Trumpster Ideology???


How is this any different than those who've "bought in and completely thrown in with and completely 'sold their souls'" to the Liberal ideology?

 

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That Pro-Abortion chant, "My body, my choice"....Can this be applied to the wearing of masks?

 

World Class Peach



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  posted on 5/16/2020 at 11:48 AM
Maybe it's just me, but I thought America and the Constitution are about:

3 branches of government with separation of powers and checks and balances. The president is chief executive, not a monarch, and not above the law.
An independent and free press
speech cannot be suppressed by the federal government
among other things

not to mention humanity, empathy, and honesty.

I don't see any of that coming from the white house.

 

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