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Author: Subject: Opening Up America Again

Zen Peach



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  posted on 4/19/2020 at 10:47 AM
There is the question of when to "re-open" things, but maybe a deeper question is, how many will actually rejoin? It's not like everyone is going to charge right back in and the economy will be magically restored in 24 hours.

This experience has changed and challenged quite a few things long considered as normal. From online shopping (is this what finally kills off big box retail?) to working at home (is the M-F 8-5 paradigm in danger?), the adaptive nature of people forces change in all kinds of ways.

I've had several conversations with others in healthcare supply chain and we can't help but wonder if the just-in-time purchasing/distribution model is pure folly and left us on a large scale woefully under-prepared by getting so far away from stockpiling.

3M has a virtual international monopoly on premium masks as well as PAPR systems and hoods. Never knew just how dominant they are until the last six weeks...is that a good thing?

I get the political back and forth and I do get the nationalism (although I don't always understand it in the rational sense...it's a virus, it doesn't care where you were born). Until there's a vaccine, we will likely be spending the next year playing hotspot whack-a-mole. Everyone isn't going to stay home, anyway.

 

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Extreme Peach



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  posted on 4/19/2020 at 11:42 AM
quote:
There is the question of when to "re-open" things, but maybe a deeper question is, how many will actually rejoin? It's not like everyone is going to charge right back in and the economy will be magically restored in 24 hours.

This experience has changed and challenged quite a few things long considered as normal. From online shopping (is this what finally kills off big box retail?) to working at home (is the M-F 8-5 paradigm in danger?), the adaptive nature of people forces change in all kinds of ways.


Agreed. This experience has accelerated trends that were already in the works - the death of brick/mortar retail, traditional work hours that were already moving toward work/life integration, & a shift toward tele-medicine.

Will everyone re-join? Workers w/a choice will exercise that choice if there is some workable solution re antibody tests, vaccines, & treatments. The workers who don't have a choice are going to continue to do what they're doing. The income/economic class gap widens.

Not everyone is eager to socialize under the new normal. Are people going to dash off to restaurants where they have to have their temperature taken before entering, limited to parties of 4, served by waiters in full PPE, & choose food from disposable menus? What's the restaurant owner to do if patrons don't comply w/new protective regulations? What about movie theatres? concert halls? sports? Although they're entertainment, they're businesses & no one is in business to lose money.

Trump seems to be acting under the assumption that a switch will flip & everything will be "normal." I don't think he's right.


 

True Peach



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  posted on 4/19/2020 at 03:54 PM
quote:
There is the question of when to "re-open" things, but maybe a deeper question is, how many will actually rejoin? It's not like everyone is going to charge right back in and the economy will be magically restored in 24 hours.

This experience has changed and challenged quite a few things long considered as normal. From online shopping (is this what finally kills off big box retail?) to working at home (is the M-F 8-5 paradigm in danger?), the adaptive nature of people forces change in all kinds of ways.

I've had several conversations with others in healthcare supply chain and we can't help but wonder if the just-in-time purchasing/distribution model is pure folly and left us on a large scale woefully under-prepared by getting so far away from stockpiling.

3M has a virtual international monopoly on premium masks as well as PAPR systems and hoods. Never knew just how dominant they are until the last six weeks...is that a good thing?

I get the political back and forth and I do get the nationalism (although I don't always understand it in the rational sense...it's a virus, it doesn't care where you were born). Until there's a vaccine, we will likely be spending the next year playing hotspot whack-a-mole. Everyone isn't going to stay home, anyway.


From the hip, 50% might come back. I think recreation has a chance to return with the economic benefits that come with that. Hiking gear, rafting stuff, ATVs, fishing. Traveling by car has a chance to come back. But many other areas are going to be damaged, some perhaps irreparably so.

Just in time delivery has definitely hampered availability of things we need.

There are going to be flare ups.

Most of us have done a good job listening to the advice. We’ve come a long way and flattened the curve. We need to stick it out a little longer. Let supplies build up, let cases go down. Then we need to be careful, smart and incremental.

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 4/19/2020 at 04:04 PM
My youngest son is an EMT in NY with AMR.

He just told me he's heading to work in NYC for two weeks, probably leaving Friday or Sunday.

I thought my sleepless nights ended when my daughter came home from the Army.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 4/19/2020 at 06:09 PM
quote:
Not everyone is eager to socialize under the new normal.


"The new normal"

How about a couple of examples detailing exactly what this means?

Not presumptive, no theories.....

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 4/19/2020 at 07:18 PM
quote:
quote:
quote:
My youngest son is an EMT in NY with AMR.

He just told me he's heading to work in NYC for two weeks, probably leaving Friday or Sunday.

I thought my sleepless nights ended when my daughter came home from the Army.


That is scary. A parent's worries are never over. Brave good kids you got there.


I'm proud of him but scared as all hell about this.

He'd been off three weeks waiting on test results after transporting numerous covid patients in Syracuse.

He's feeling fine, likely it was sinus issues and work related exhaustion.

Not looking forward to the next month.

His sister survived a roadside bomb in Baghdad.

She had armor on her humvee, he's got nothing but cloth and soap.

 

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Extreme Peach



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  posted on 4/20/2020 at 09:11 AM
quote:
"The new normal"How about a couple of examples detailing exactly what this means?

I used CA Gov. Gavin Newsom's description of what restaurants will look like in my post. Almost any description of what businesses/workplaces will look like start w/taking the temperature of anyone who enters - worker or customer - until accurate antibody tests are available to everyone. So far, one hasn't even been developed.

We're living the new normal now in essential businesses that are open - workers (everyone from pharmacists to stockers) wearing masks, customers wearing masks, tape or painted markers at 6 foot intervals in check-out lines and in store aisles to remind customers to stand apart from each other, employees wearing disposable gloves, greeters stationed at the entrance wiping off the handle of a shopping cart w/a disinfectant wipe before allowing a customer to use it, & a refusal to accept cash.

Traditional campus-based colleges (e.g., BU) are planning to continue online-only classes for summer & fall semesters. Some state universities w/multiple campuses have announced plans to consolidate at the main campus & close satellite campuses.

Movie studio executives are in negotiations to forego theatrical releases for what would've been summer/Christmas blockbusters in favor of streaming services. Film festivals where movies garner prestigious awards & industry buzz that heightens earnings are being cancelled. Future production is halted while negotiations for financing w/o theatrical distribution are made. The Oscars organization is considering combing the Academy Awards for 2020 & 2021. The trade associations for movie distribution are forecasting grim financial projections much as brick/mortar retailers are shuttering stores in favor of online only sales & are addressing the issues of taking the temperature of every movie-goer prior to admission, disinfecting theatres after every show which would require staggering screenings, cordoning off seating in 6 foot intervals, eliminating concessions, & hiring security to enforce seating policies.

I get my examples from major newspapers & trade publications. The business sections of major newspapers regularly publish articles w/industry executives as to how their businesses would change when re-opening while there is no antibody testing, vaccine, or treatment for COVID-19.




 

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  posted on 4/20/2020 at 10:35 AM
“we are weeks if not months away from having sufficient test capacity.”

Former CDC director Tom Friedman.

He also says if we were only testing the highest priority people we would need 3x more tests. We currently are at 150,000 per day a little over a million a week. If we try to test really extensively it would be 10-20x that.

With people making those statements, my question becomes, what is possible? I’d like to know, let’s just say we lived in fantasy land and everyone approved of our federal governments response and actions. Can somebody actually say that we can get to 10-20 million tests per week? And when could we even be at that point? Summer? Fall? 2021? What kind of country are we going to have by then?

It’s one thing to say what we need to be doing from people not responsible for actually doing it. It’s another thing to explain how the shortage of supplies and components gets where it needs to be in order to conduct 40-80 million tests per month. We test 4 million currently.

I’m sure the next great test and break through is right around the corner. But how long can we wait around for it? Indefinitely? And indefinite government rescue programs. Sounds like indefinite depression.

Let’s see where states case count, or better ratio positive/negative results go. If they are coming down over a 1-2 week period of time, we need to prepare for phase 1.

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 4/20/2020 at 10:38 AM
quote:
quote:
"The new normal "How about a couple of examples detailing exactly what this means?


================

quote:
"until accurate antibody tests are available to everyone"


California is nuts, absolutely nuts and the keyword here is "until" making this temporary.

quote:
a refusal to accept cash.


Have not witnessed this

quote:
Traditional campus-based colleges (e.g., BU) are planning to continue online-only classes for summer & fall semesters.


"Planning to continue"..temporary

quote:
Movie studio executives are in negotiations to forego theatrical releases for what would've been summer/Christmas blockbusters in favor of streaming services. Film festivals where movies garner prestigious awards & industry buzz that heightens earnings are being cancelled. Future production is halted while negotiations for financing w/o theatrical distribution are made. The Oscars organization is considering combing the Academy Awards for 2020 & 2021. The trade associations for movie distribution are forecasting grim financial projections much as brick/mortar retailers are shuttering stores in favor of online only sales & are addressing the issues of taking the temperature of every movie-goer prior to admission, disinfecting theatres after every show which would require staggering screenings, cordoning off seating in 6 foot intervals, eliminating concessions, & hiring security to enforce seating policies.


if your vision of a "new normal" means Hollywood and its "influence" might be going away or diminishing, I could not be happier about that.

quote:
while there is no antibody testing, vaccine, or treatment for COVID-19.


Once again, it appears you are describing temporary scenarios that in no way insinuate permanent change.

"While covid19 is rampant, I have been asked to stay at home..."Is this the new normal"?

Or a temporary fix?

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 4/20/2020 at 10:44 AM
quote:
“we are weeks if not months away from having sufficient test capacity.”

Former CDC director Tom Friedman.

He also says if we were only testing the highest priority people we would need 3x more tests. We currently are at 150,000 per day a little over a million a week. If we try to test really extensively it would be 10-20x that.

With people making those statements, my question becomes, what is possible? I’d like to know, let’s just say we lived in fantasy land and everyone approved of our federal governments response and actions. Can somebody actually say that we can get to 10-20 million tests per week? And when could we even be at that point? Summer? Fall? 2021? What kind of country are we going to have by then?

It’s one thing to say what we need to be doing from people not responsible for actually doing it. It’s another thing to explain how the shortage of supplies and components gets where it needs to be in order to conduct 40-80 million tests per month. We test 4 million currently.

I’m sure the next great test and break through is right around the corner. But how long can we wait around for it? Indefinitely? And indefinite government rescue programs. Sounds like indefinite depression.

Let’s see where states case count, or better ratio positive/negative results go. If they are coming down over a 1-2 week period of time, we need to prepare for phase 1.


I have to add that the whole country and its need to get back to living & business and their readiness to best judge when that should happen, should not and can NEVER be based solely on what is happening in New York or any other huge American city.

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 4/20/2020 at 11:40 AM
Okay, I am very rarely correct about anything. Ask my wife.

Back in January ... I was offering my $.02 to anybody who was willing to listen. Most were not. Probably due to my rarely being correct. What I advised then was - close up the shops, bars and restaurants - sacrifice (forfeit) the Spring Break business and possibly recover the much larger Summer business. This advice flew like a $hit balloon. Nobody saw any sense in my idea.

So now - a whole lotta people who are likely a whole lot smarter than me want to hurry up and reopen these establishments. Ready or not.

Here is my latest free advice: if we give this virus a little more time - keep up with our home lock-downs and social distancing ... we might be able to open the malls and retail establishments for the Christmas holiday shopping season. Or we could rush into this ... and do our Christmas shopping on the computer when the malls are boarded shut.

 

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  posted on 4/20/2020 at 12:16 PM
quote:
Once again, it appears you are describing temporary scenarios that in no way insinuate permanent change.
"While covid19 is rampant, I have been asked to stay at home..."Is this the new normal"? Or a temporary fix?

We are not in a temporary fix. We are in a stop-the-spread period in a pandemic.

May 1 is when re-opening is supposed to start to happen. No antibody test, vaccination, or treatment planned to roll out by then. Estimates for those are anywhere from 2 months to 2 years or beyond. There's no guarantee that anything will be identified, approved, & made widely available so re-opening guidelines are all based on anyone can transmit the COVID19 virus to others.

We live in the present. Even w/stimulus packages & other aid, there are businesses & industries that will close because they simply can't hang on until the fix arrives. There are certain businesses where tele-working will replace life in the cubicle. We will not return to life as it was in summer 2019. We'll return to some new iteration.

You asked for examples. I gave examples of what industry leaders - some of whom are informal advisers to Trump on re-opening - are saying. Can't do more than that.

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 4/20/2020 at 12:31 PM
quote:
quote:
Once again, it appears you are describing temporary scenarios that in no way insinuate permanent change.
"While covid19 is rampant, I have been asked to stay at home..."Is this the new normal"? Or a temporary fix?

We are not in a temporary fix. We are in a stop-the-spread period in a pandemic.


And when the spread is stopped and the virus contained?

quote:
You asked for examples. I gave examples


Thanks and I disagree with your conclusions

 

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  posted on 4/20/2020 at 12:39 PM
You did provide good examples cyclone.

And BigV, I agree, there is no one-size fits all approach. A lot of people think there should be and a lot of others think there should not be. So what are we going to do? I am thankful that the mayors and governors close to their constituents are responsible for the decisions. Some might make good decisions and some might make bad decisions, but this is what we have. NY and NYC will do what is right for them and they will reap the benefit or sacrifice of that, as will other states.

And to Rusty's point, I just think we need a little more time. I don't want to appear like I'm on both sides of this. We need some economic activity, we need some mental relief to be able to get out and do stuff. But we have come this far. By and large, state to state, cases are not going down yet, or down enough or sustained trajectory. A little more time hopefully will get us further away from the hump and then we'll have to see how it goes. We can look to Europe and other places for examples as they go through this. We already saw some places in Asia try. These places were ahead of us with their infection, so they should try their relaxing and reopening before we do. And let's learn from what happens there, dos and don'ts.

I think we are on the cusp of trying this, but some people are pushing it too soon. And the President feeds it. The President should say and do a lot of things he doesn't. But on this, we have a 30 days to stop the spread that his administration put forth. OK. And his administration put forth opening guidelines. OK. I actually think the opening guidelines are pretty responsible, clearly some smart people inputted greatly on it. It might actually make it impossible to get through the gates, technically with the testing open to interpretation, but that is the map for states to try and follow. It was well done. Some states will have their own ideas. But the President is undermining everything. The 30 days to stop the spread runs until April 30th. He should say, we need to stay the course, we are winning, it's not over. Stick it out a little longer and when your states feel they can meet the criteria of relaxing restrictions, we will do so slowly and smartly, but if the 30 days to slow the spread is still in place, don't tell people to start opening now. He encouraging people to "free" themselves now, still with over a week to go in his own plan to slow the spread. He's a joke and he is making things worse right now. We have to start to try and relax the restrictions, but you have to follow some kind of plan and data as to when to do that...and some people aren't with these protests at the encouragement of the President.


[Edited on 4/20/2020 by nebish]

 

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  posted on 4/20/2020 at 12:45 PM
quote:
Here is my latest free advice: if we give this virus a little more time - keep up with our home lock-downs and social distancing ... we might be able to open the malls and retail establishments for the Christmas holiday shopping season. Or we could rush into this ... and do our Christmas shopping on the computer when the malls are boarded shut.

Agree w/you, but not to give the virus a little more time. Time is needed for the scientific/medical community to invent antibody testing, a vaccine, & treatments. If businesses are re-opened immediately w/o those things & everyone rushes out to that re-opening, we'll be right back where we were.

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 4/20/2020 at 12:50 PM
quote:
quote:
Here is my latest free advice: if we give this virus a little more time - keep up with our home lock-downs and social distancing ... we might be able to open the malls and retail establishments for the Christmas holiday shopping season. Or we could rush into this ... and do our Christmas shopping on the computer when the malls are boarded shut.

Agree w/you, but not to give the virus a little more time. Time is needed for the scientific/medical community to invent antibody testing, a vaccine, & treatments. If businesses are re-opened immediately w/o those things & everyone rushes out to that re-opening, we'll be right back where we were.


quote:
I agree, there is no one-size fits all approach


Agreed, there is not. But I for one am growing weary of the newscasts making NYC the headquarters of this extremely difficult time for everyone in this country. Governor Cuomo, does not speak for this nation, he has the interests of the people of New York at stake, period. Perhaps N.Y. should seal off its borders while the rest of the Country figures out what is the best way to get up and moving again.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 4/20/2020 at 01:02 PM
quote:
As falls New York, so falls the USA


If you live in NYC, I understand how you might choose to believe that.

 

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  posted on 4/20/2020 at 01:18 PM
I have not heard Andrew Cuomo presume to speak for anyone other than NY or dictate what anyone outside of NY does.

NYC gets a lot of coverage because, well it’s NYC. NY also has the most cases and deaths. That’s going to make the news.

Cuomo gets a lot of coverage because he’s been widely lauded for providing very transparent, timely, fact-based updates on the situation in NY in general.

You can always change the channel...

 

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  posted on 4/20/2020 at 01:22 PM
quote:
You did provide good examples cyclone.

I think we are on the cusp of trying this, but some people are pushing it too soon. And the President feeds it. The President should say and do a lot of things he doesn't. But on this, we have a 30 days to stop the spread that his administration put forth. OK. And his administration put forth opening guidelines. OK. I actually think the opening guidelines are pretty responsible, clearly some smart people inputted greatly on it. It might actually make it impossible to get through the gates, technically with the testing open to interpretation, but that is the map for states to try and follow. It was well done. Some states will have their own ideas.

But the President is undermining everything. The 30 days to stop the spread runs until April 30th. He should say, we need to stay the course, we are winning, it's not over. Stick it out a little longer and when your states feel they can meet the criteria of relaxing restrictions, we will do so slowly and smartly, but if the 30 days to slow the spread is still in place, don't tell people to start opening now. He encouraging people to "free" themselves now, still with over a week to go in his own plan to slow the spread. He's a joke and he is making things worse right now. We have to start to try and relax the restrictions, but you have to follow some kind of plan and data as to when to do that...and some people aren't with these protests at the encouragement of the President.

The examples aren't mine. I just repeated what business/industry leaders are saying about re-opening when there's no prevention or cure in sight.

I agree w/you. From what I've read, we've learned 3 things about COVID-19 since it arrived: 1) it affects people of all ages so everyone is vulnerable, 2) people can have the virus more than once, & 3) people can transmit the virus before they have symptoms. None of that sounds like we should rush to re-open w/o precautions.

We do have other countries ahead of us & we are learning what does/doesn't work from them.

There's no one size fits all re-open. A good leader would say everything you suggested. I've been saying for weeks that the prez's daily briefings shouldn't be televised in full because he lies, touts unproven cures, & mocks governors who are proceding at the pace models in their states show. He contradicts himself, takes valuable time from Drs. Fauci & Birx & even Pence to correct him, & generally confuses people. Journalism isn't just turning the camera on; journalism is filming, editing, & conveying information the public needs to know. Televise the experts not the political bluster.

One of the ironic things about his LIBERATE VIRGINIA! tweet is that Virginia is under an order through June 10 - probably one of the longest in the country - in part because its northern cities are DC commuting suburbs. More importantly, the governor is a PHYSICIAN who has repeatedly said that science not politics will dictate when/how to re-open. Granted, the governor is a Democrat, but he's also someone who knows more about medicine & science than Trump. Ergo, the stable genius must belittle him.

 

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  posted on 4/20/2020 at 09:15 PM
quote:
One of the ironic things about his LIBERATE VIRGINIA! tweet is that Virginia is under an order through June 10 - probably one of the longest in the country - in part because its northern cities are DC commuting suburbs. More importantly, the governor is a PHYSICIAN who has repeatedly said that science not politics will dictate when/how to re-open. Granted, the governor is a Democrat, but he's also someone who knows more about medicine & science than Trump. Ergo, the stable genius must belittle him.


Yeah but , there needs to be data to guide decision making. No doubt. There needs to be a clear plan in place. No doubt. Responsible leadership. Of course. But if you totally rely on the science it could be like NY saying they needed 140,000 hospital beds and they needed 30,000 ventilators at minimum. Science can be wrong, you can be too reliant on it to a detriment.

Everything changes, evolves day to day. It all needs weighed and evaluated and assumptions, expectations all need evaluated with risks and rewards. Solely relying on the science isn't enough. Solely relying on economics isn't enough. Strike the balance. We'll have some Democrat governors that I think will be playing politics in the sense they are reluctant to relax and open because Trump is pushing for it and their base wants to be more cautious. Just like we have some Republican governors are going too soon because Trump and their base wants them to. Politics is almost impossible to keep out of everything now.

I stand by the belief that each governor should do what they see best for their state. They have to figure it out. It's just that solely relying on the science can be misguided as well.

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 4/20/2020 at 09:32 PM
quote:
I stand by the belief that each governor should do what they see best for their state.


X2

 

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  posted on 4/20/2020 at 10:09 PM
quote:
Georgia, Tennessee announce plans to reopen some businesses, wind down coronavirus stay-at-home orders

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp said certain businesses including restaurants, gyms and hair salons can reopen beginning this Friday. Meanwhile, Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee confirmed his state's stay-at-home order, previously extended to April 30, will end that day.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/georgia-tennessee-announce-plans-to-reopen-some- businesses-wind-down-coronavirus-stay-at-home-orders



My gut tells me that this is too soon, especially in Georgia where they still have a significant number of new cases and deaths. But, it should be an interesting experiment for the other states to see what happen in a couple weeks after the reopening. If there isn't a big second wave, well then maybe some other states can think of reopening sooner than expected. If the number of new cases jump, well we will know what not to do. As I go to a music festival in Georgia ever September, I hope they can reopen things earlier than later and I can save my trip. If there is a big setback, then my trip will be doomed.

 

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  posted on 4/21/2020 at 12:06 AM
quote:
I stand by the belief that each governor should do what they see best for their state. They have to figure it out. It's just that solely relying on the science can be misguided as well.


Clarification: The Virginia governor didn't say he was relying solely on science. He said in the choice between politics & science, science is the determining factor. I have family there & follow his daily briefings that present models similar to those Fauci/Birx use on a county by county basis in the state. It's updated daily. There are daily reports of available resources, economic indicators, & other pertinent data to decision-making. Politics are less important to Virginia governors as they have a 4 yr term limit.

 

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  posted on 4/21/2020 at 06:26 AM
Kentucky sees highest spike in coronavirus cases after lockdown protests


https://nypost.com/2020/04/20/kentucky-sees-highest-spike-in-coronavirus-ca ses-after-protests/


quote:
Kentucky experienced its highest single-day spike in coronavirus cases after protests broke out in the state to lift lockdowns, according to reports.

Gov. Andy Beshear announced there were 273 new cases Sunday, bringing the total to 2,960, news station WCPO reported.

“We are still in the midst of this fight against a deadly and highly contagious virus,” Beshear said. “Let’s make sure, as much as we’re looking at those benchmarks and we’re looking at the future, that we are acting in the present and we are doing the things that it takes to protect one another.”

The Bluegrass State is among the regions that have seen demonstrators take to the streets last week to call for the end of lockdown restrictions.

Around 100 protesters gathered Wednesday on the lawn of the Capitol building in Frankfort during Democrat Beshear’s coronavirus briefing, shouting “Open up Kentucky!” and “King Beshear,” the Lexington Herald-Leader reported.

The same group returned Friday to the Capitol building, where they were met by barricades, the newspaper reported.

Instead, they circled the area in cars for a drive-through protest of Beshear’s coronavirus restrictions, the report said.

It’s unclear whether the protests had any impact on the surge of deaths reported Sunday in the state.

Beshear said at least 13 percent of cases reported in Kentucky have been nursing home residents.

Of the 273 new cases, there were 33 patients who were residents of nursing homes and eight more who were staffers, he said.

Beshear insisted Sunday he wouldn’t budge yet on easing lockdown restrictions despite the calls from protesters, according to the newspaper.

“We’re not in the 14 days of decreasing under the White House guidelines to do certain things,” Beshear said.
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[Edited on 4/21/2020 by stormyrider]

 

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  posted on 4/21/2020 at 08:15 AM
Things are getting weird. A health crisis and building civil unrest.
 
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