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Author: Subject: Opening Up America Again

World Class Peach



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  posted on 5/11/2020 at 02:26 PM
quote:
quote:
To all y'all, QUIT STARING AT ME.


Keep it on, man. Believe me we would stare at you worse if we could see your face! Damn, man you should sign up as an extra for The Walking Dead!


You did know that it's filmed in central Georgia?

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 5/11/2020 at 05:08 PM
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Blind leadin the blind round this place.



Says the expert on infectious diseases.

 

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Universal Peach



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  posted on 5/11/2020 at 06:00 PM
"A worker infected 533 others with coronavirus at a factory in Ghana, president says"

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/11/africa/ghana-factory-coronavirus-infection-i ntl/index.html

Granted it's Ghana and it's working dynamics are much different the U.S. but it's still something to consider.

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 5/11/2020 at 09:06 PM
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"A worker infected 533 others with coronavirus at a factory in Ghana, president says"

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/11/africa/ghana-factory-coronavirus-infection-i ntl/index.html

Granted it's Ghana and it's working dynamics are much different the U.S. but it's still something to consider.




That is pretty crazy! I've searched for some other sources with more detail.

Doubt that place had any safety measures in place.

Read Ghana GDP expected to fall to lowest level in 37 years.

 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/11/2020 at 09:08 PM
4913 of our cases have come from meat packing plants as of May 1st.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6918e3.htm?s_cid=mm6918e3_x

 

Maximum Peach



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  posted on 5/11/2020 at 09:13 PM
^ Strikes me as significant data - maybe it is carried in meat. Or some connect with meat. Supposedly started in animal matter. Worth checking up on anyway.
 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 5/13/2020 at 07:54 PM
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^ Strikes me as significant data - maybe it is carried in meat. Or some connect with meat. Supposedly started in animal matter. Worth checking up on anyway.


If true we better hope old luke isn't serving his BFF Dickey any tainted BBQ.

 

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Maximum Peach



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  posted on 5/13/2020 at 09:50 PM
I'll have one coronachada please, a covidilla and a corona beer too
 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/14/2020 at 08:54 PM
Here is what has happened in Ohio:

May 1 – outpatient elective medical procedures allowed to resume (includes dental and veterinary)

May 4 – construction, manufacturing and distribution that had halted, could resume. Also general office environments can reopen.

May 12 – retail stores and service companies reopen (retail had been allowed to do appointment only from May 1st until now).

May 15 – restaurants and bars open for outside dining only – additionally, hair salons, barbershops, day spas, nail salons, tanning facilities, massage parlors, tattoo and piercing shops allowed to open

May 21 – inside restaurant dining, state park camp grounds (some private camp grounds with long-term or annually leased spots have been allowed to open)

May 22 – horse racing can resume without spectators (racinos or casinos will not open)

May 26 – in person BMV, gyms and fitness centers (a lawsuit had been filed on behalf of gyms to allow them to reopen). Non-contact or limited contact sports leagues (like tennis and golf) can resume. Public pools can open (but not amusement parks or water parks).

May 31 – daycare

TBD – higher-contact sports leagues (like soccer, basketball), dance studios, outdoor recreation, casinos and tourism

Ohio House of Representatives passed bill to limit our Health Director's orders to no more than 14 days, only a bipartisan legislative committee could allow orders for longer. Senate plans to vote next week. Governor Dewine threatens a veto (not enough votes to overcome veto). The current modified “Stay Safe Ohio” runs until May 29th is filled with exceptions, but still says individuals are “ordered to stay at home or their place of residence except as allowed in this order”. At this point I resent still being "ordered" to stay home.

As of tomorrow (5/15) up to 90% of the Ohio economy will be allowed to open.

Ohio is only conducting an average of 4640 tests per day, but average daily testing total is up 1000 from just ten days ago. Governor says we have triple that capacity and actual tests will continue to ramp up. Per his previous comments we were supposed to be testing 7200-15000 daily now, he says we have the capacity to do that many but did not explain the disconnect (same disconnect that has befallen national testing). Ohio is making our own reagent and swabs.

We are averaging about 600 new cases a day right now. At our peak in late April we were averaging about 900 new cases a day. 11 of our last 14 days have seen numbers lower than the prior day, but our overall downward trajectory has stalled and plateaued. We get a bump up and then the numbers fall off a little, then another bump up and a couple more days of fall off, but it is mostly flat at this point.

Our number of patients currently hospitalized has been dropping anywhere from 2-9 people per day. April 22nd and 23rd we had over 1100 people in the hospital. The numbers are coming in about 1000 now with some totals showing in the 900s before revisions adjust it slightly upward.

We had 510 to 520 people in ICU in late April. These figures have been steadily dropping as well to mid/upper 300s in ICU on any given day now.

My county is 7th in the state for cases. We actually had a peak a week to ten days ago, but the cases have quickly dropped in recent days. Our current 7 day average for daily cases of 18.5 is the lowest it has since things started ramping up in early April. We admit 1-2 new patients per day in our local hospitals. Deaths in my county have peaked in the last several days with 5-6 per day. The last couple days show that is declining so far. We are 4th in the state for deaths. Almost 70% of our deaths were from long term care facilities and 99% of deaths in my county were said to have co-morbidity/underlying health problems.

I run my own spreadsheets so I can better track trends in the coming weeks as we open up. I have no expectation if we can or can't do this, will have to see where it goes.

[Edited on 5/15/2020 by nebish]

 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/14/2020 at 09:33 PM
One number that does clear up some of the other statistics on Ohio's case count is % of positive/negative test results.

Our positive test rate has hit a low of 7.7% over the last 7 days averaged. Eight of our last ten days have had positive test rates in single digits. At our mid-April high we were getting positives at a 20-30% rate.

Hopefully this remains steady or even goes down more as testing increases. That should tell more than just looking at daily case increases.

 

Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 5/14/2020 at 11:23 PM
quote:
One number that does clear up some of the other statistics on Ohio's case count is % of positive/negative test results.

Our positive test rate has hit a low of 7.7% over the last 7 days averaged. Eight of our last ten days have had positive test rates in single digits. At our mid-April high we were getting positives at a 20-30% rate.

Hopefully this remains steady or even goes down more as testing increases. That should tell more than just looking at daily case increases.


I'm not sure how important that piece of data is. As more testing becomes available, you would expect those additional tests going to people without symptoms, who more often than not will test negative. You would expect that percentage to go down.

What would be a good sign is new cases going down dispite additional testing.

 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 05:55 AM
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I'm not sure how important that piece of data is. As more testing becomes available, you would expect those additional tests going to people without symptoms, who more often than not will test negative. You would expect that percentage to go down.

What would be a good sign is new cases going down dispite additional testing.


Eventually that would be true. How fast Ohio expands it's tests will play a role. Right now just under 5000 a day isn't a lot to go around yet for people without symptoms other than high risk workers. If private companies are acquiring their own tests for associates not sure how or if those will get reported to local health departments and ultimately the state.

Most of the experts say cases will go up with opening and activity, some think dramatically so. Although Georgia is proving that theory wrong so far with cases dropping 3 weeks into their open.

 

Extreme Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 07:57 AM
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Although Georgia is proving that theory wrong so far with cases dropping 3 weeks into their open.

This is where the data falls through the cracks for me. I'd want to track the # of patrons of re-opened businesses against the # of new cases. There mere fact that businesses are open doesn't mean they're being patronized. As Rusty has reported, the beach shops/eateries are open & seemed to have customers. Meanwhile, the mayors of three of GA's largest cities continue to urge people to remain home.

If you know of any stats that track cases v. people still at home & people venturing out, please post. As it is, some at home cases are never reported if the symptoms are mild & the person is never tested/reported.

[Edited on 5/15/2020 by cyclone88]

 

Extreme Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 08:26 AM
Well, see here we go again...little boyTrumpie, AKA anti-science, anti-anyone-who-is-smarter-than-he-is-because-his-ego-is-more-fragile-than- an-eggshell-and-he-can't-read-past-the-first-grade-"See Spot Run" books fires anyone who knows more than he does....which, come to think of it is very likely everyone except his drooling knuckle-dragging supporters and his sissy syncophants.....many will die from this "hoax"

 

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Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 09:05 AM
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Although Georgia is proving that theory wrong so far with cases dropping 3 weeks into their open.

This is where the data falls through the cracks for me. I'd want to track the # of patrons of re-opened businesses against the # of new cases. There mere fact that businesses are open doesn't mean they're being patronized. As Randy has reported, the beach shops/eateries are open & seemed to have customers. Meanwhile, the mayors of three of GA's largest cities continue to urge people to remain home.

If you know of any stats that track cases v. people still at home & people venturing out, please post. As it is, some at home cases are never reported if the symptoms are mild & the person is never tested/reported.


Wisconsin will give us the answer we need in about 3 weeks.

 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 10:58 AM
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Although Georgia is proving that theory wrong so far with cases dropping 3 weeks into their open.

This is where the data falls through the cracks for me. I'd want to track the # of patrons of re-opened businesses against the # of new cases. There mere fact that businesses are open doesn't mean they're being patronized. As Randy has reported, the beach shops/eateries are open & seemed to have customers. Meanwhile, the mayors of three of GA's largest cities continue to urge people to remain home.

If you know of any stats that track cases v. people still at home & people venturing out, please post. As it is, some at home cases are never reported if the symptoms are mild & the person is never tested/reported.


I have not seen that kind of comparison. Not sure what local news stories in Georgia may be reporting.

We won't see the cell phone data that some officials do see (I don't think that is disclosed any way is it?), but maybe we can look at traffic data from Georgia's department of transportation. I'm not interested enough to do that even in my own state, but I do think some traffic data might be able to be compared.

We don't know. As you say, just because businesses and places are allowed to open doesn't mean all will and just because people are able to go there doesn't mean all will - I agree. But it must be true that while all or some will not, a portion of them certainly will. How large is that group? Don't know. But the fact that the group trying to open and do more stuff exists and are out there doing it should mean comparing a relative lock-down condition from say 4-5 weeks ago to now should offer a contrast. Many people will be out interacting and engaging in personal and business contact...how many, what percentage? Don't know that is being calculated on a widespread reportable basis.

I suppose data could be manipulated. I was actually surprised that cases would drop as reopening are allowed to occur....almost sounds like right-wing spin. I am fully prepared to see at least mini-spikes and hot spots pop up, it only seemed logical and natural it would. Having cases go down while opening up seems illogical and a strange coincidence.

It's all new territory...learning on the fly.

 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 11:16 AM
I live in southeast (coastal) Georgia.

As a matter of fact, numbers of NEW cases are still rising - if only slightly. The media has apparently moved from hyping the disease to burying it. With most businesses open (no bars yet - churches? How would I even know?) it'll take about 3 weeks to see any new surge. Here's the rub on that: someone from New York comes here, feels symptoms, gets tested (positive) - that person shows up as a new case in New York. In my opinion, it'll be several weeks before any type of victory can be declared. I'll be holed up - masking up for any errands.

 

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Extreme Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 11:35 AM
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We won't see the cell phone data that some officials do see (I don't think that is disclosed any way is it?)


The NYT publishes cell phone data as it's available (daily? weekly?). So far, it tracks what types of locations are getting the most visits & when they occur.

 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 11:39 AM
These could be fun to play around with:

https://www.safegraph.com/dashboard/reopening-the-economy-foot-traffic?s=US &d=05-12-2020&i=all

 

Extreme Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 11:44 AM
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Here's the rub on that: someone from New York comes here, feels symptoms, gets tested (positive) - that person shows up as a new case in New York. In my opinion, it'll be several weeks before any type of victory can be declared. I'll be holed up - masking up for any errands.


Good point about where tourists are sickened in one state show up as new cases in their home state.

Wasn't victory already declared even though nothing has changed except there are no more daily briefings? I'm w/you. There's nowhere I want to go right now - masked walks in Central Park practicing social distancing is about it for me. Virtually all summer music & film venues have been canceled & the gym in my building remains closed per the co-op board. I still work from home w/no desire to rush back to the office.

 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 11:50 AM
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I live in southeast (coastal) Georgia.

As a matter of fact, numbers of NEW cases are still rising - if only slightly. The media has apparently moved from hyping the disease to burying it. With most businesses open (no bars yet - churches? How would I even know?) it'll take about 3 weeks to see any new surge. Here's the rub on that: someone from New York comes here, feels symptoms, gets tested (positive) - that person shows up as a new case in New York. In my opinion, it'll be several weeks before any type of victory can be declared. I'll be holed up - masking up for any errands.


Yes, I do see that now upon looking up local news site.

Axios does say that Georgia's cases are down 12% week over week.
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-cases-map-high-risk-states-8ceeaa05-cc07- 4e8b-b9f4-df3a3315f143.html

11Alive NBC affiliate does show on average about 30 more cases over a current 14 day period compared to one prior for Georgia. Hospitalizations have decreased by 50+ and deaths have dropped by about 4-5 current 14 day (5/1-5/14) to prior (4/17-4/30).
https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/real-time-updates-c oronavirus-in-georgia-may-14/85-9926a53e-01dc-4a66-aaf9-11ab64e16db9

 

World Class Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 12:05 PM
What will also make interpretation of the stats tough is that even though states are "open", some business have stayed shut and many people are still mostly at home. People's behavior may make it look like re-opening was a success and safe when we really don't know

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 12:12 PM
To be honest, I find the NEW CASE numbers to be misleading - even a bit non-useful. This is an accumulation number that includes EVERY case since day 1. We've only had one death here (Glynn County) but the number of cases keeps stacking up. I am sure that some have completely recovered. Weird thing is that the current "count" keeps going up or down by 1. Not sure if they're adjusting for mis-diagnosis' or what.

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 01:01 PM
I see the new case numbers, the daily increase or decrease, to be very relevant and useful. The cumulative total figure since day 1 means little to me. In a historical reference sense it serves a purpose to see where the virus has gone, but it is backwards looking. The new daily cases says where the situation is currently. The only total that is impactful and of course disturbing is the death figure. The number of hospitalizations day-over-day, number in ICU, number on ventilators that is all very helpful information when looking at trends. You can average them over given periods, you can get % of increase/decrease, you can see out of the norm highs and lows due to data dumps or reporting snags. This is why I wanted to have all Ohio's data in one place that I could see at any time instead of having to search for it and then run some calculations off of how a certain site was reporting it. I collect data from the coronavirus.ohio.gov site along with data from Cleveland.com, the businessjournaldaily.com and covidtracking.com


 

World Class Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 01:54 PM
I like looking at hospitalizations, not only because I work in the hospital
In NH, access to testing has changed over time and is changing still. More new cases will be picked up as more tests are available, so a perceived increase may not be reflective of a real change. The number of sick people theoretically would be independent of test availability. Assuming the virulence of the virus is unchanged, it is a good measure of how much is out there, imo

 

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