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Author: Subject: Opening Up America Again

True Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 05:55 AM
quote:
I'm not sure how important that piece of data is. As more testing becomes available, you would expect those additional tests going to people without symptoms, who more often than not will test negative. You would expect that percentage to go down.

What would be a good sign is new cases going down dispite additional testing.


Eventually that would be true. How fast Ohio expands it's tests will play a role. Right now just under 5000 a day isn't a lot to go around yet for people without symptoms other than high risk workers. If private companies are acquiring their own tests for associates not sure how or if those will get reported to local health departments and ultimately the state.

Most of the experts say cases will go up with opening and activity, some think dramatically so. Although Georgia is proving that theory wrong so far with cases dropping 3 weeks into their open.

 

Extreme Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 07:57 AM
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Although Georgia is proving that theory wrong so far with cases dropping 3 weeks into their open.

This is where the data falls through the cracks for me. I'd want to track the # of patrons of re-opened businesses against the # of new cases. There mere fact that businesses are open doesn't mean they're being patronized. As Rusty has reported, the beach shops/eateries are open & seemed to have customers. Meanwhile, the mayors of three of GA's largest cities continue to urge people to remain home.

If you know of any stats that track cases v. people still at home & people venturing out, please post. As it is, some at home cases are never reported if the symptoms are mild & the person is never tested/reported.

[Edited on 5/15/2020 by cyclone88]

 

Extreme Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 08:26 AM
Well, see here we go again...little boyTrumpie, AKA anti-science, anti-anyone-who-is-smarter-than-he-is-because-his-ego-is-more-fragile-than- an-eggshell-and-he-can't-read-past-the-first-grade-"See Spot Run" books fires anyone who knows more than he does....which, come to think of it is very likely everyone except his drooling knuckle-dragging supporters and his sissy syncophants.....many will die from this "hoax"

 

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Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 09:05 AM
quote:
quote:
Although Georgia is proving that theory wrong so far with cases dropping 3 weeks into their open.

This is where the data falls through the cracks for me. I'd want to track the # of patrons of re-opened businesses against the # of new cases. There mere fact that businesses are open doesn't mean they're being patronized. As Randy has reported, the beach shops/eateries are open & seemed to have customers. Meanwhile, the mayors of three of GA's largest cities continue to urge people to remain home.

If you know of any stats that track cases v. people still at home & people venturing out, please post. As it is, some at home cases are never reported if the symptoms are mild & the person is never tested/reported.


Wisconsin will give us the answer we need in about 3 weeks.

 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 10:58 AM
quote:
quote:
Although Georgia is proving that theory wrong so far with cases dropping 3 weeks into their open.

This is where the data falls through the cracks for me. I'd want to track the # of patrons of re-opened businesses against the # of new cases. There mere fact that businesses are open doesn't mean they're being patronized. As Randy has reported, the beach shops/eateries are open & seemed to have customers. Meanwhile, the mayors of three of GA's largest cities continue to urge people to remain home.

If you know of any stats that track cases v. people still at home & people venturing out, please post. As it is, some at home cases are never reported if the symptoms are mild & the person is never tested/reported.


I have not seen that kind of comparison. Not sure what local news stories in Georgia may be reporting.

We won't see the cell phone data that some officials do see (I don't think that is disclosed any way is it?), but maybe we can look at traffic data from Georgia's department of transportation. I'm not interested enough to do that even in my own state, but I do think some traffic data might be able to be compared.

We don't know. As you say, just because businesses and places are allowed to open doesn't mean all will and just because people are able to go there doesn't mean all will - I agree. But it must be true that while all or some will not, a portion of them certainly will. How large is that group? Don't know. But the fact that the group trying to open and do more stuff exists and are out there doing it should mean comparing a relative lock-down condition from say 4-5 weeks ago to now should offer a contrast. Many people will be out interacting and engaging in personal and business contact...how many, what percentage? Don't know that is being calculated on a widespread reportable basis.

I suppose data could be manipulated. I was actually surprised that cases would drop as reopening are allowed to occur....almost sounds like right-wing spin. I am fully prepared to see at least mini-spikes and hot spots pop up, it only seemed logical and natural it would. Having cases go down while opening up seems illogical and a strange coincidence.

It's all new territory...learning on the fly.

 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 11:16 AM
I live in southeast (coastal) Georgia.

As a matter of fact, numbers of NEW cases are still rising - if only slightly. The media has apparently moved from hyping the disease to burying it. With most businesses open (no bars yet - churches? How would I even know?) it'll take about 3 weeks to see any new surge. Here's the rub on that: someone from New York comes here, feels symptoms, gets tested (positive) - that person shows up as a new case in New York. In my opinion, it'll be several weeks before any type of victory can be declared. I'll be holed up - masking up for any errands.

 

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Extreme Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 11:35 AM
quote:
We won't see the cell phone data that some officials do see (I don't think that is disclosed any way is it?)


The NYT publishes cell phone data as it's available (daily? weekly?). So far, it tracks what types of locations are getting the most visits & when they occur.

 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 11:39 AM
These could be fun to play around with:

https://www.safegraph.com/dashboard/reopening-the-economy-foot-traffic?s=US &d=05-12-2020&i=all

 

Extreme Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 11:44 AM
quote:
Here's the rub on that: someone from New York comes here, feels symptoms, gets tested (positive) - that person shows up as a new case in New York. In my opinion, it'll be several weeks before any type of victory can be declared. I'll be holed up - masking up for any errands.


Good point about where tourists are sickened in one state show up as new cases in their home state.

Wasn't victory already declared even though nothing has changed except there are no more daily briefings? I'm w/you. There's nowhere I want to go right now - masked walks in Central Park practicing social distancing is about it for me. Virtually all summer music & film venues have been canceled & the gym in my building remains closed per the co-op board. I still work from home w/no desire to rush back to the office.

 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 11:50 AM
quote:
I live in southeast (coastal) Georgia.

As a matter of fact, numbers of NEW cases are still rising - if only slightly. The media has apparently moved from hyping the disease to burying it. With most businesses open (no bars yet - churches? How would I even know?) it'll take about 3 weeks to see any new surge. Here's the rub on that: someone from New York comes here, feels symptoms, gets tested (positive) - that person shows up as a new case in New York. In my opinion, it'll be several weeks before any type of victory can be declared. I'll be holed up - masking up for any errands.


Yes, I do see that now upon looking up local news site.

Axios does say that Georgia's cases are down 12% week over week.
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-cases-map-high-risk-states-8ceeaa05-cc07- 4e8b-b9f4-df3a3315f143.html

11Alive NBC affiliate does show on average about 30 more cases over a current 14 day period compared to one prior for Georgia. Hospitalizations have decreased by 50+ and deaths have dropped by about 4-5 current 14 day (5/1-5/14) to prior (4/17-4/30).
https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/real-time-updates-c oronavirus-in-georgia-may-14/85-9926a53e-01dc-4a66-aaf9-11ab64e16db9

 

World Class Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 12:05 PM
What will also make interpretation of the stats tough is that even though states are "open", some business have stayed shut and many people are still mostly at home. People's behavior may make it look like re-opening was a success and safe when we really don't know

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 12:12 PM
To be honest, I find the NEW CASE numbers to be misleading - even a bit non-useful. This is an accumulation number that includes EVERY case since day 1. We've only had one death here (Glynn County) but the number of cases keeps stacking up. I am sure that some have completely recovered. Weird thing is that the current "count" keeps going up or down by 1. Not sure if they're adjusting for mis-diagnosis' or what.

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 01:01 PM
I see the new case numbers, the daily increase or decrease, to be very relevant and useful. The cumulative total figure since day 1 means little to me. In a historical reference sense it serves a purpose to see where the virus has gone, but it is backwards looking. The new daily cases says where the situation is currently. The only total that is impactful and of course disturbing is the death figure. The number of hospitalizations day-over-day, number in ICU, number on ventilators that is all very helpful information when looking at trends. You can average them over given periods, you can get % of increase/decrease, you can see out of the norm highs and lows due to data dumps or reporting snags. This is why I wanted to have all Ohio's data in one place that I could see at any time instead of having to search for it and then run some calculations off of how a certain site was reporting it. I collect data from the coronavirus.ohio.gov site along with data from Cleveland.com, the businessjournaldaily.com and covidtracking.com


 

World Class Peach



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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 01:54 PM
I like looking at hospitalizations, not only because I work in the hospital
In NH, access to testing has changed over time and is changing still. More new cases will be picked up as more tests are available, so a perceived increase may not be reflective of a real change. The number of sick people theoretically would be independent of test availability. Assuming the virulence of the virus is unchanged, it is a good measure of how much is out there, imo

 

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  posted on 5/15/2020 at 05:36 PM
I look at new cases, active cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Those numbers pretty much tell you where you are at now. From those you can tell the percent of confirmed active cases per population, if the hospitals are overwhelmed, and if things are getting better or worse. My county finally started releasing the number recovered, so now I know that there are 1.2 active confirmed cases per 10,000 people in my county, which is a pretty low ratio unless you consider that you'd probably have 2 people with it at a large concert or sporting event. Of course, there are likely many other that have it but never got tested. Very few hospitalizations here as well. We've been very fortunate, and as much as I like to be cautious it seems like most things in my area could be opened up. I would not have the same attitude if I lived in NYC however.
 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/16/2020 at 09:32 PM
Interactive national map with all counties color-coded to show where cases are declining or increasing:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/graphic-tracking-coronav irus-infections-us/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::ad d=SpecialEdition_20200515&rid=910A3A0C804D1C7F8D5B2B273F0E8738

 

Ultimate Peach



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  posted on 5/19/2020 at 01:37 PM
Finally got a haircut today. And here in Ohio Governor Dewine just lifted the remaining stay at home order. About time.
 

Ultimate Peach



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  posted on 5/19/2020 at 01:40 PM
And here. While this is from Italy but lots of states here have very similar age breakdown. I believe Massachusetts avg age of death is 82 and Florida very similar. End the lockdowns now. So why all this lunacy acting like we are all at risk? What a load of bs.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106372/coronavirus-death-rate-by-age-g roup-italy/

 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/19/2020 at 02:26 PM
No...just the 82 year olds, who friggin BUILT this country.



 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 5/19/2020 at 02:39 PM
quote:
Interactive national map with all counties color-coded to show where cases are declining or increasing:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/graphic-tracking-coronav irus-infections-us/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::ad d=SpecialEdition_20200515&rid=910A3A0C804D1C7F8D5B2B273F0E8738


We're decreasing here because everybody was told to stay home or risk getting it and die in 3 days. We saw the refrigerator morgue trucks with 800 bodies a day getting put in there. That scared people enough to stay home. Sometimes it has to get dramatic to make the point stay home and stop the spread.

The numbers here have followed the IMHE model so I think it will be true July 1 will be safe in metro NY, but they may open sooner. Right now quarantine extended till June 13. The model has been right so far, so the protesters should just wait and stop their demonstrations.

[Edited on 5/19/2020 by gina]

 

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Ultimate Peach



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  posted on 5/19/2020 at 03:24 PM
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No...just the 82 year olds, who friggin BUILT this country.





Which we all know. And they still managed not to protect them very well.

 

A Peach Supreme



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  posted on 5/19/2020 at 04:05 PM
Well here a statistic for you. Seven years ago my daughter had a miscarriage and lost her baby, or as republicans refer to it as a ďlate term abortionĒ. She gave birth last year to the only child she will ever have a beautiful baby girl. Her husbandís mother died of brain cancer when he was nineteen. My mother who was a nurse worked in infection control, she was only 82 and was at work the day before she was admitted to the ICU and was intubated and died three days later. My sister was a nurse and died when she was 32 from a staph infection she got from the hospital she worked at. My son is a diabetic and my husband has high blood pressure. My husband can still fit in the same suit we were married in so this is not an issue of obesity as well as my son. So my granddaughter only has one grandmother and that is me. Should I throw myself on the sword for Donald Trumpís stock market, a haircut, to go party at bar, go see a show? Anne Frank was isolated for over two years in an attic with 7 other people. If a child can endure that isolation should I cry because I canít get my hair done? The pioneers were locked in their home for months during the winter, how about Valley Forge. Has this country become so weak that they are willing to sacrifice their own parents and grandparents for a haircut?

So truly if that is how you feel go to a Trump Rally, don't wear a mask. Go cruise around a hospital ICU with active virus patients without mask and then go to your family's house and cough in their faces. That way you get your haircut and sacrifice your parents and grandparents for the DT Stockmarket and consider yourself more of a patriot then the pioneers of this country or the healthcare workers who literally put their lives on the line to save people like you when you are sick and dying.


[Edited on 5/19/2020 by PattyG]

[Edited on 5/19/2020 by PattyG]

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 5/19/2020 at 04:56 PM
quote:
quote:
No...just the 82 year olds, who friggin BUILT this country.





Which we all know. And they still managed not to protect them very well.


That's not what you said.

 

A Peach Supreme



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  posted on 5/19/2020 at 05:09 PM
Well here in Georgia:


https://nypost.com/2020/05/19/georgia-agency-bashed-for-using-erroneous-cor onavirus-data/

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 5/19/2020 at 05:38 PM
This is ironic, I'm about to leave to get my hair cut at 7:15.

I will be wearing a mask...I assume as required in Ohio, the lady cutting my hair will be as well. I will report back if it is of such interest.

My wife is 60 with a weakened immune system to having RA and the drugs she takes for it. Up until now she has only seen a very limited number of immediate family members. Until yesterday, she went to the garden center to get some outdoor plants for the house. She wore a mask, tries to stay away from people, has plenty hand sanitizer. She called a couple weeks ago about getting her hair done, said get me the first day in June you can. Her appointment is June 13th. They are pretty busy now.

People have to make their own decisions. People have to take precautions, but people have to choose what they want to do and not do with risks being what they are.

We aren't Trump lovers. Sure I voted for him 2016, won't be in 2020. My wife hates Trump and has an Obama t-shirt.

For me, for us, this had nothing to do with politics other than the fact we enjoy following political story lines and issues.

I'm getting my hair cut tonight. I'm sorry if that is going to upset some people. Stay sheltered in place if it makes you feel safe. I'm not going to berate you if you do. Everyone has to do what everyone has to do.

 
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