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Author: Subject: Opening Up America Again

Zen Peach



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  posted on 5/3/2020 at 08:21 PM
quote:
When Rowland did his latest round of member clean-up this thread got bumped off the forum, so I'll bring it back in case we want to keep it going.

[Edited on 5/3/2020 by nebish]


I haven't been on in a couple days. Did I miss something? I did a quick member search and couldn't find the member name I was searching...

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 5/3/2020 at 08:39 PM
Myself, I am astounded at how compliant the general public has been in giving up their basic freedoms. It's really scary.

And the shaming practiced by either side is sickening.

I'm going to agree with Vince on this one. We've been played - and played on an unprecedented scale. I don't think sheeple is a bigoted term to use.

When history looks back on this, just like any other historical event is revisited, there will either be heroes or fools. It remains to be seen who will be counted among the fools. Hindsight is always 20-20.

I just want a table full of Mexican food.

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 5/3/2020 at 08:42 PM
quote:
All this hand wringing and fear about getting the virus, spreading the virus, keeping the country shut down, waiting for a cure, etc. will almost certainly be seen in hindsight as one of the stupidest reactions mankind has ever had to a threat. We've let fear overcome reason, and we over-reacted to something that is turning out to be no worse for the majority than an average seasonal flu. While there are certainly groups that require more care and closer attention, the vast majority are at no more risk of dying than they are every year from the flu. The difference this time is that our insane over-reaction by shutting down most of the world's economy will have more devastating impact to the lives and well being of far more people than the actual illness itself.


"While there are certainly groups that require more care and closer attention, the vast majority are at no more risk of dying than they are every year from the flu".


The problem is, how do we cope and handle with the groups that require more care and closer attention? There has never been the strain on hospitals and those workers from the normal flu.

Would you agree, that if mitigation was not put into place that cases would've grown, hospitalizations would've grown and deaths would've grown? It gets to a point, what can our healthcare system handle, both in terms of the facilities and beds and the human workers that must tend to these people. And then the morgues, the funeral homes, the cemeteries. It is such a crush in a short period of time on these systems that they become overwhelmed. 67,674 covid-19 deaths at the moment in just 2 months. There is a discrepancy comparing covid deaths to flu deaths, according to this article - it's apples to oranges:

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths -to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

I go back and forth on this.

More people are going to be negatively impacted by the economic fallout of this virus than the people directly impacted by the virus. You have to consider the family and loved ones who lost somebody to this virus - you can't really compare that or measure that.

Neither alternative is good. Keep the economy going at the sacrifice of more lives lost. Shut most of the economy down to save more lives. Which one ultimately is better? Before you say the former no matter how unfortunate it is to those people who die and their friends and family left dealing with it, consider this. In the face of more infection, and more death and more demand and strain on the medical system...would it have even been possible to keep the economy going?


What I'm saying is, the fallout from more infection and death would've had a natural drag on the economy and businesses...owners, managers, employees, customers more getting infected. Suppliers dealing with man power shortages. Delays, back orders, capacity and capability issues. More coronavirus sickness would've lead to business interruptions. Even if hospitalizations are about 20% and deaths are something like 5% of confirmed cases (or we can use other metrics), as these numbers would've continually gone up we hadn't tried mitigation there would've been some sort of panic and economic toll that happened anyway. Unless you are of the opinion that we could've kept things opened and not had more cases? If so I'd like to hear you explain it if you don't mind.

It just seems logical, the more people in circulation and more infections present are going to lead to greater infection and as a result more hospitalizations and all the problems in the paragraph above. That just seems likely to me. If you have another view, I'm willing to listen.

The hill article you quoted says the states followed federal government guidelines to shut down nonessential work. Well, some states were going to do this on their own. Many states would not have stood still as their hospitals get flooded. So shut downs would've happened no matter what the federal government wanted as states acted in their own supposed best interest. There is no singular central direction on this. It might look that way, but clearly states are doing whatever they want and I don't think it could've been any other way. So I think it is foolish to think "if only our federal government had a different policy on this everyone would've done X or everyone would've done Y". That never would've happened.

I'm just a normal guy trying to figure this stuff out, so I don't know. I'm not sure you or anyone else really knows what was right or wrong or what is right or wrong now. Maybe you have it all figured out.

Whatever happened behind us is behind us. What I want now is to live with this virus and it's associated risks all while we open up our businesses and increase our activity and interactions. While we do this, I want to be careful because I don't want any reason for the ones running the show to have to tell us to go back into our shells. Maybe it is overcautious, maybe we are acting silly with all the masks and distancing. I don't really care right now. Let's figure out what went wrong later. For now, for the ones comfortable with whatever risks might or might not exist, let's get out and open up. But let's be careful because if we aren't careful and we're wrong it makes anything that we gained from mitigation wasted. There has been a lot of sacrifice paid in different ways. Let's not have it be for wasted.

 

Maximum Peach



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  posted on 5/3/2020 at 09:57 PM
quote:
"While there are certainly groups that require more care and closer attention, the vast majority are at no more risk of dying than they are every year from the flu".

The problem is, how do we cope and handle with the groups that require more care and closer attention? There has never been the strain on hospitals and those workers from the normal flu.
As it turns out, I have a personal experience that has made me more adamant in my views on this in recent weeks.

About three weeks ago, I had some sever abdominal pain that just came out of nowhere. It was the early AM on a Sunday morning, and it was bad enough that I called 911. I had never done that for anything in my life previously, but this scared me to the point of feeling that I needed help. So they come and take me to the ER. Of course I'm thinking; what kind of mess am I getting into because of the virus? Will I go to the regular ER, or has that been reserved only for virus patients, and they'll take me to some other part of the hospital?

So we pull up to the normal ER entrance. Inside, there's no rush of activity. No line of people. No evidence of any strain on the system whatsoever. Its about 6 AM, and you can hear a pin drop. Other than seeing all the staff wearing masks, I see no other patients and note nothing that would say we have a health emergency. This is one of the largest ER facilities on the eastern side of Cincinnati, and it looks like deadsville.

My experience aligns with so many reports of similar conditions all around the country. This thing hasn't over-run our system. It didn't even do so in NYC, where such extraordinary efforts we made to handle a massive need for hospital beds and equipment just a few weeks ago, and almost none of that was needed. Don't get me wrong - I praise the preparation and the effort. I know it will be easy to label this as Monday morning quarterbacking, but from the outset I felt we were over-reacting based on fear instead of real knowledge.

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 5/3/2020 at 10:26 PM
Are you ok Rich? Your stomach pain?

I have heard some stories of this too, about hospitals that are not full, not even half full, not even close to full or closer to empty of covid patients. I have been trying to get a hospital count per county or even per specific hospitals in Ohio and can't find one. Just that our daily hospitalized rate has remained about 1000 patients per day in Ohio hospitals. At one time weeks ago I saw our local hospitals released the number they had, but I have not seen that since.

The natural question becomes, what would the number of hospitalized patients been without mitigation?

Nobody can know.

If Ohio is consistently averaging about 1000 patients in Ohio hospitals per day and if we accept a 20% hospitalization rate (all of this is just on confirmed cases, there ware many unconfirmed cases which lowers the hospitalization and mortality rate)...if Ohio had 5000 more confirmed cases that would lead to 1000 more hospitalizations. Can we handle that? Ohio has about 3600 ICU beds across 236 hospitals. How many have non-covid patients in them already? Not every hospitalized covid patient needs ICU. I see currently under 400 of our about 1000 patients are in ICU. So there is a lot of ICU capacity in the state.

So maybe it never would've happened, the overwhelming? Recalling back a month ago, they feared they wouldn't have enough beds, wouldn't have enough ICU capacity. Where they wrong or did mitigation help us - are both correct?

I think NYC did get overwhelmed. There were patients in hallways, field hospitals that went underutilized, but were still used in some manner. Others can talk more to that, but it was really bad in NYC. Even if beds didn't run out in the system, there certainly is an exhaustion for the workers having to tend these very sick patients. The workers are burning out - so that in a sense is a different kind of overwhelmed.

Could it have got bad in Cincy, or Columbus or Cleveland? Surely in some rural areas that lack proper medical facilities if they had an outbreak could've gotten bad.

Ohio has about 20,000 cases to date. We just don't know, and never will know, what the case count would've been without mitigation. The models were mostly wrong...and so many models, so many different estimates. The only way to find out is to pick one course of action and see what happens.

Pretty sure damned if you do and damned if you don't. Go with extreme mitigation and everyone complains about the sky has fallen on the economy...and other things with the food lines and mental health issues. But if you allow it to just run through society, everyone complains that we just let people die instead of taking appropriate action to protect the vulnerable and limit the spread.

The right thing would be to strike a balance...which is what I'm about trying to do right now. Could we have had a better balance back in March? Who knows, in the moment, it's hard to tell and it is risky either way. The safer play was to error on saving lives and limiting infection spread. Was that the right one?

[Edited on 5/4/2020 by nebish]

 

Maximum Peach



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  posted on 5/4/2020 at 05:06 AM
quote:
Are you ok Rich? Your stomach pain?
Yeah, I'm fine - thanks for asking.

They thought it might have been something related to my gallbladder, but scans and tests showed nothing. It was about 4 hours of intense pain, the likes of which I've never felt. In the past, I've had part of my intestine pinched into a hole in my abdominal wall that had me writhing in pain on the floor, and had the joy of kidney stones. Neither of which had me thinking 911. But this did. Ironically, like both of those experiences, it came as quickly as it went.

I'm chalking it up to fried chicken the night before.

 

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Maximum Peach



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  posted on 5/4/2020 at 05:26 AM
^ Scary ride fuji glad you made it.
 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/5/2020 at 05:13 PM
I've paid less and less attention to all national news related to virus cases, plans to reopen or extended mitigation orders.

I have paid closer attention to Ohio's data.

Since Ohio's peak of 1380 new cases on April 19th ( a high 3-day peak due to widespread prison testing), 12 of the last 17 days have seen a decreased number of cases day-over-day. We actually hit a low of 362 new cases, but the last 10 days have ticked up and plateaued perhaps stalling our downward trajectory. Today's reported new cases were 495. Our high 7 day average on 4/21 was 921. Our low 7 day average was 435 on 4/28. Our current 7 day average is 600. Our high 14 day average was just on 5/1 at 688 avg new cases per day, current 14 day average is 517 - by this weekend that should go down substantially as the peak days will fall off the average range.

We have tested about 5000 more people last week compared to the week prior. Positive cases will go up as testing goes up, but % of positive results are decreasing over the last week (9% positive results in the May 5 data, 16% positive on 4/29, our peak day positive results was 20-40% due to the prison testing).

Daily statewide hospitalizations have remained 1000-1100 for 5 weeks with no substantial increase or decrease. ICU patients have dropped steadily from a high of 524 early April to 402 as of today.

Interesting, my county has the 7th most cases in the state and 3rd most deaths. Mahoning County has a population of about 228,000 people. Our new cases averaged about 20 per day most of April, sometimes a little lower, however 2 of the last 3 days have seen a new spike making the current 7 day average of 30 per day. New hospitalizations are averaging just 2 per day, down from about about 6 per day 3 weeks ago.

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 5/5/2020 at 10:17 PM
quote:
Myself, I am astounded at how compliant the general public has been in giving up their basic freedoms. It's really scary.


I just want a table full of Mexican food.


I just want my youngest son to not die of this sh!t while he's working on Long Island spelling the ambulance crews who have been handling this for two months.

I'm such a self centered azzhole.

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 5/6/2020 at 05:14 AM
quote:
quote:
Myself, I am astounded at how compliant the general public has been in giving up their basic freedoms. It's really scary.


I just want a table full of Mexican food.


I just want my youngest son to not die of this sh!t while he's working on Long Island spelling the ambulance crews who have been handling this for two months.

I'm such a self centered azzhole.



Just a concerned father. Good on him, ballsy move doing what he's doing. In the years to come, he'll be telling your grandkids about the experience.
Hang tough.

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 5/6/2020 at 06:58 PM
quote:
quote:
Myself, I am astounded at how compliant the general public has been in giving up their basic freedoms. It's really scary.


I just want a table full of Mexican food.


I just want my youngest son to not die of this sh!t while he's working on Long Island spelling the ambulance crews who have been handling this for two months.

I'm such a self centered azzhole.



The precautions the ER docs use are to change clothes immediately after work before leaving the hospital. So they leave the hospital in clean clothes not contaminating their car. The clothes they arrived to work in and wore all day are put in a plastic bag and put in their trunk till they can be washed. If they have a house they leave them in the garage till they can wash them. The docs and nurses who go home in scrubs worn all day take them off outside their house, either in the garage or on the patio. They do not bring them in the house unless they are in a plastic bag going to be washed immediately. No shoes go in the house. Put them in a plastic bag have other shoes or slippers to use in the house. You have to separate potentially contaminated clothes.

The idea is to leave the house or apt or hotel in clean clothes and come home in clean clothes. That minimizes bringing any germs into where you are living so you are not breathing anything Infectious while there. When outside or at work, masks. Wash hands as often as possible. Get sleep eat at least one good meal and if you can a breakfast sandwich.

Doctors are in the germiest places, yet they stay safe. He should be fine.

 

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World Class Peach



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  posted on 5/6/2020 at 09:42 PM
Hopefully they have enough protective gear.
Those guys are rock stars

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 5/7/2020 at 09:04 AM


quote:
“If you notice, 18% of the people came from nursing homes, less than 1% came from jail or prison, 2% came from the homeless population, 2% from other congregate facilities, but 66% of the people were at home, which is shocking to us,” Cuomo said.

“This is a surprise: Overwhelmingly, the people were at home,” he added. “We thought maybe they were taking public transportation, and we’ve taken special precautions on public transportation, but actually no, because these people were literally at home.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-cor onavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html



So staying home doesn't make you safe?

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 5/7/2020 at 05:52 PM
quote:
quote:
quote:
Myself, I am astounded at how compliant the general public has been in giving up their basic freedoms. It's really scary.


I just want a table full of Mexican food.


I just want my youngest son to not die of this sh!t while he's working on Long Island spelling the ambulance crews who have been handling this for two months.

I'm such a self centered azzhole.



Just a concerned father. Good on him, ballsy move doing what he's doing. In the years to come, he'll be telling your grandkids about the experience.
Hang tough.


He works for AMR.

Central NY has a large number of first responders who are volunteering to go downstate for a two week deployment.

I talked to him today, he says they probably won't extend his assignment.

He did say though that his company is expecting to send crews to the South and Midwest after their expected increases in cases after reopening way too soon.

 

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Ultimate Peach



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  posted on 5/8/2020 at 10:41 AM
HMM.

Woodstock Occurred in the Middle of a Pandemic

https://www.aier.org/article/woodstock-occurred-in-the-middle-of-a-pandemic /?fbclid=IwAR1ouz2QG00QATnpUUSXcT_XThlDgAqppncc265FGRSZqIKBbUTlqU7H054

 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/8/2020 at 12:20 PM
quote:
HMM.

Woodstock Occurred in the Middle of a Pandemic

https://www.aier.org/article/woodstock-occurred-in-the-middle-of-a-pandemic /?fbclid=IwAR1ouz2QG00QATnpUUSXcT_XThlDgAqppncc265FGRSZqIKBbUTlqU7H054


An estimated 100,000 Americans died in the 1968-69 H3N2 pandemic (1mill worldwide).

Time for further reading, thanks for the link.



[Edited on 5/8/2020 by nebish]

 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/8/2020 at 01:31 PM
AIER excerpt:

quote:
The only actions governments took was to collect data, watch and wait, encourage testing and vaccines, and so on. The medical community took the primary responsibility for disease mitigation, as one might expect. It was widely assumed that diseases require medical not political responses.


referenced WSJ article excerpts:

quote:
In 1969, the British postal and train services and French manufacturing suffered large disruptions from flu-induced absenteeism. In West Germany, garbage collectors had to bury the dead because of a lack of undertakers.

In affected countries, some schools had to close as teachers fell ill. In less than two years, over 30,000 people died in France and Britain, and up to 60,000 in both parts of divided Germany, according to recent estimates...

Pierre Dellamonica, a French physician who started his medical career in 1969 as the epidemic was raging, says dead patients were piling up in his hospital in the south of France. But doctors and the public were fatalistic in accepting the death toll, he said.

Mortality rates for the 1968 pandemic were significantly lower than those of Covid-19, said Susan Craddock, professor at the Institute for Global Studies of the University of Minnesota. And without 24-hour news coverage, online resources and social media to heighten public anxiety, politicians were under less pressure to act than they are today, she said.

“Today, medical progress has pushed up life expectancy,” Mr. Thiessen said. While this has heightened people’s sense of security, he said, it has reduced the public’s acceptance of disease and death, especially among the most vulnerable.

In the 1960s and ’70s, the carnage of World War II was a recent memory. Life expectancy was significantly lower than today and such diseases as polio, diphtheria, measles or tuberculosis were part of everyday life.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/forgotten-pandemic-offers-contrast-to-todays-c oronavirus-lockdowns-11587720625




Has our tolerance of death shifted?

Have medical advances spoiled us to think that we shouldn't be subjected to viruses that impacted prior generations?

Are we more compassionate now than we were just some 50 years ago?

It is rather striking to compare what is happening between the two viruses.

 

Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 5/8/2020 at 01:40 PM
quote:
quote:
HMM.

Woodstock Occurred in the Middle of a Pandemic

https://www.aier.org/article/woodstock-occurred-in-the-middle-of-a-pandemic /?fbclid=IwAR1ouz2QG00QATnpUUSXcT_XThlDgAqppncc265FGRSZqIKBbUTlqU7H054


An estimated 100,000 Americans died in the 1968-69 H3N2 pandemic (1mill worldwide).

Time for further reading, thanks for the link.



[Edited on 5/8/2020 by nebish]


They are not even similar. The 1968-69 pandemic had 100,000 deaths in a period of well over a year when nothing was shut down. Compare that to the number of deaths that have taken place in just 3 months dispite closing everything down. Apples and oranges.

 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/8/2020 at 01:49 PM
The US population was smaller.

100,000 deaths / 200,000,000 population = .05% of US population died

76,101 deaths / 330,000,000 population = .023% of US has population died to date

Granted the H3N2 death count was over a two wave period. We have yet to make it through our first wave, let alone a second.

If we take the .05% of US population that died during the 1968/69 and apply it to today's population that comes out to 165,000 deaths.

The two may end up being comparable, no?

 

Maximum Peach



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  posted on 5/8/2020 at 02:13 PM
quote:
staying home doesn't make you safe?


The "home" stat on the chart is the only one with a population that circulates, my takeaway is your chart shows that transmission is occurring at stores and any other essential public contact point.

That or it is crawling out of the walls.

Which means if it is this bad under sheltering, it is gonna explode when we start up. Seventh wave, dudes, get on your boards and start paddling!

[Edited on 5/8/2020 by BrerRabbit]

 

Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 5/8/2020 at 03:02 PM
quote:
The US population was smaller.

100,000 deaths / 200,000,000 population = .05% of US population died

76,101 deaths / 330,000,000 population = .023% of US has population died to date

Granted the H3N2 death count was over a two wave period. We have yet to make it through our first wave, let alone a second.

If we take the .05% of US population that died during the 1968/69 and apply it to today's population that comes out to 165,000 deaths.

The two may end up being comparable, no?


No, although you have a good point about the population, this pandemic has been over a period of just a few months with EXTREME countermeasures. The 68/69 was for well over a year (close to 2 years I think) with pretty much no countermeasures at all. This virus spreads much more quickly and easily.

 

Maximum Peach



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  posted on 5/8/2020 at 04:23 PM
quote:
quote:
The US population was smaller.

100,000 deaths / 200,000,000 population = .05% of US population died

76,101 deaths / 330,000,000 population = .023% of US has population died to date

Granted the H3N2 death count was over a two wave period. We have yet to make it through our first wave, let alone a second.

If we take the .05% of US population that died during the 1968/69 and apply it to today's population that comes out to 165,000 deaths.

The two may end up being comparable, no?
No, although you have a good point about the population, this pandemic has been over a period of just a few months with EXTREME countermeasures. The 68/69 was for well over a year (close to 2 years I think) with pretty much no countermeasures at all. This virus spreads much more quickly and easily.
Respectfully disagree. Take away the densely populated areas where the impact has been the worst, and this has been almost a non-event. Certainly not worthy of the ridiculous measures we've taken. A lot of that added population has been in the exact cities where the density has caused the worst outcomes. More population density = geometrically greater spread.

 

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World Class Peach



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  posted on 5/8/2020 at 04:54 PM
agree that greater population = greater spread

we don't know yet how much of a non event is will be in non dense areas
all we know is number of cases so far (which is not going down) with the intervention of social distancing. we don't know what would have happened if we didn't restrict activity or what will happen once things open up.

I hope my fears are not realized.

we have already lost more Americans than we did in Viet Nam

 

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Maximum Peach



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  posted on 5/8/2020 at 05:00 PM
quote:
we have already lost more Americans than we did in Viet Nam
Not to downplay the importance of any lives, but that happens nearly every year to just the regular flu.

 

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World Class Peach



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  posted on 5/8/2020 at 05:09 PM
In some years, yes but not all

quote:
Overall, the CDC estimates that 12,000 and 61,000 deaths annually since 2010 can be blamed on the flu.

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the- flu-every-year



this has been a few months

population density doesn't just include cities - for example look at meat packing plants and pork processing plants

for that matter, my step son is stationed at Fort Bragg, NC. The base has been in isolation for a month, yet my step son and his roomate have it.

[Edited on 5/8/2020 by stormyrider]

 

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