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Author: Subject: Anyone want to discuss the models

True Peach





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  posted on 4/2/2020 at 11:42 AM
After weeks and months of models here and globally, the White House has released their first estimates.



https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/what-we-know-about-coronavirus -model-white-house-unveiled-n1173601

100,000 - 240,000 death estimated, the hope by Fauci is that we don't have to accept that as reality if we can continue to push it down.

Another new and respected model, the University of Washington, model has 84,000 deaths. Other earlier estimates have stated deaths in the millions.

Every day I look at the John Hopkins site that Bhawk originally posted here:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd4029942346 7b48e9ecf6

Maybe I'm looking for hope, but I continually divide cases by population and deaths by cases and the numbers remain very small in totality which makes me believe that we can hopefully see less infection and less death than might be predicted.

US cases are .066% of population with a 2.4% death rate.
Italy cases are .18% of population with a 11.9% death rate.
Spain cases are .24% of population with a 9% death rate.
Germany cases are .098% of population with a 1.2% death rate.
France cases are .08% of population with a 7% death rate.
UK cases are .05% of population with a 8.6% death rate.

It's still a lot of people, but if infection rates can stay well below 1% of populations then the ultimate death numbers hopefully can remain well below estimates. If 1% of the US population became infected, 3.3 million and the 2.4% death rate remains that results in 79,200 deaths. If half of 1 percent in the US became infected that would be 1,650,000 cases and on a 2.4% death rate results in 39,600 deaths.

Birx and Fauci have said that the assumptions have relied on statistics from global cases combined with several other models rolled into one. Hopefully some of the European statistical inputs and more dire models are skewing the results of their model assumptions. Time will tell.

Any thoughts?

[Edited on 4/2/2020 by nebish]

 
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Ultimate Peach



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  posted on 4/2/2020 at 12:01 PM
If the numbers below for no intervention predict 1.5 to 2 million deaths in the US that is a scary statistic. I think the country will be much more than the 0.2 million predicted number with intervention. I base this on what I am seeing with my own two eyes that as a country we cannot claim the "with intervention" numbers. Many parts of the country like Florida were ignoring the safety precautions about not getting together in large groups. I hope I am wrong but the numbers may go much higher, like 500,000 deaths.

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 4/2/2020 at 12:59 PM
Well, to your point about the number being higher, the IHME model out of University of Washington has revised it's figure to 93,765, after the weekend they had it at 84,000.

What state are you in OG? I'm in Ohio.

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 4/2/2020 at 01:14 PM
https://youtu.be/cpMR9zG9nqQ

 

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  posted on 4/2/2020 at 05:07 PM
Jared Kushner is quietly working behind the scenes using the McKinsey model.

Https://news.yahoo.com/behind-scenes-kushner-takes-charge-235545283.html

McKinsey has a whole bunch of management strategies for businesses.



[Edited on 4/2/2020 by gina]

 

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Universal Peach



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  posted on 4/2/2020 at 08:20 PM
quote:
Models are entirely dependent on the assumptions used.
The assumptions change as more data is collected and analyzed.

Quality modeling recognizes that projections will keep changing.




If only the president realized that back when he was speaking to his minions earlier in the year.

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 4/2/2020 at 08:40 PM
Pulling a couple quotes from a Post story: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/02/experts-trumps-advisers-do ubt-white-houses-240000-coronavirus-deaths-estimate/

quote:
At a task force meeting this week, according to two officials with direct knowledge of it, Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told others there are too many variables at play in the pandemic to make the models reliable: “I’ve looked at all the models. I’ve spent a lot of time on the models. They don’t tell you anything. You can’t really rely upon models.”


Confirms my suspicion from his prior comments that Fauci doesn’t really like models and hates questions that try to nail him down for sound bite answers.


quote:
I think we can come in under 100,000 deaths. I do,” he said. “The jury is not yet in on this.”
- Jeffrey Shaman Columbia University epidemiologist

[Edited on 4/3/2020 by nebish]

 

Extreme Peach



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  posted on 4/2/2020 at 10:45 PM
Well nebish, I just saw Dr Birx, Trump's left hand Lady speak and at the podium she admitted that much of the modeling and numbers could be just a tad off, as only 50% of the tests administered in the U.S. have been read thus far!!!!! I was stunned......Peace.......joe
 

Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 4/2/2020 at 10:58 PM
quote:
quote:
quote:
Models are entirely dependent on the assumptions used.
The assumptions change as more data is collected and analyzed.

Quality modeling recognizes that projections will keep changing.




If only the president realized that back when he was speaking to his minions earlier in the year.



No one is relying on any one or two models to make decisions.

Models allow a view.
It is the discussion with professionals that influences decisions.

Of course everyone is still waiting for the Democrats to offer any plan to address the coronavirus.
The only thing we hear from the left are criticisms.
Running to the TV cameras to criticize is the cowards way out.



[Edited on 4/3/2020 by ABBGMTTB]


Huh? It seems the Democratic governors of the largest states are the ones with the plans to address the Coronavirus. Cuomo in NY and Gavin Newsom in California have been at the forefront of implementing effective plans, and the federal government seems to be reluctantly dragged along behind them. Of course neither of them are bragging about how good they're doing; instead they are letting actions speak for themselves. Gavin Newsom in particular was criticized for taking such drastic actions so quickly, but California in particular is flattening the curve and even his haters now are admitting that he has been doing a great job on the state's virus response.

 

True Peach



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  posted on 4/3/2020 at 07:43 AM
quote:
Well nebish, I just saw Dr Birx, Trump's left hand Lady speak and at the podium she admitted that much of the modeling and numbers could be just a tad off, as only 50% of the tests administered in the U.S. have been read thus far!!!!! I was stunned......Peace.......joe


I don't recall her linking waiting for test results to the model, but that seems like a reasonable statement because more data one way or the other can effect projections.

In some cases the commercial labs have not reported their results yet and in some cases the commercial labs have a backlog they are working though, sometimes large backlogs in the low hundreds of thousands, which is leading to long wait times to get a result back to the patient. Out Ohio Governor mentioned this I think it was last week, sometimes there are labs that have a shorter wait time but in one facility always sends their tests to say Quest, they don't ask the other labs if they have a quicker turn around and they keep sending it to Quest who might be really behind vs a lab that could've turned it around quicker.

Anyway, so it's two folded...a delay in awaiting test results and a delay in reporting results to the CDC.

Covid tracking project has numbers...Birx says 1.3 million tests have been done and she has about 50% results. Covid tracking project is reporting results for over 1.2 million tests. I would think the government has the ability to get the same figures, but I think it's possible CDC is just waiting to be told the results, where as covid tracking project is actively going out and seeking data.

I'm just like you Joe, just trying to make sense of it all. Here is covid tracking project link:
https://covidtracking.com/data

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 4/3/2020 at 11:38 AM
Funny how when the republicans are in charge, they ask why the democrats aren't doing something... SMH

I would add Gov. Pritzker of Illinois and Mayor Lightfoot of Chicago as being democrats who took this seriously and didn't wait for the federal government to get their act together - both have shown leadership on this - and empathy - something Trump will never do.....

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 4/3/2020 at 07:18 PM
quote:
Well nebish, I just saw Dr Birx, Trump's left hand Lady speak and at the podium she admitted that much of the modeling and numbers could be just a tad off, as only 50% of the tests administered in the U.S. have been read thus far!!!!! I was stunned......Peace.......joe


They want to create an Elisa test. Elisa tests failed to detect HIV in HIV positive patients do they found they needed the Western blot for confirmation. Not sure how accurate an Elisa assay [test] will be for Covid-19. I worked for a chemist who did specialized tests to help patients be properly diagnosed. I know a few things about laboratory medicine.



 

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Ultimate Peach



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  posted on 4/3/2020 at 07:27 PM
“These models, I was never involved in the models - a least not this kind of model.”

Today at the daily briefing pivoting from thousands of people dying to the kind of models he's been involved with.

 

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Extreme Peach



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  posted on 4/4/2020 at 07:44 AM
The guy is trash to say that, at 19yrs, I had to stop an unconscious girl from getting date taped, shiat like this ain't all that funny? Don't know in that split second what caused me to make the right call. I make a lot of bad ones. Trumpty conducts his business like a spoiled rotten 19 yr old, he appeals to like minded people who live vicariously through him? His foundation base consists of men and women who live their life and get 100% of their knowledge from Fox News, and Twitter propaganda from trolls of all types??................joe

Quite funny sometimes we work 12hrs a day, some of my buddies wives will hang on their phones all day and follow the "news" on Twitter and Facebook, then when the guys get home or throughout the day via text they keep their men informed and up to date on all the idiocy and what Trump is doing? It results in all of them being misinformed and PARANOID!!!

[Edited on 4/4/2020 by crazyjoe]

 

True Peach



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  posted on 4/4/2020 at 08:35 AM
quote:
“These models, I was never involved in the models - a least not this kind of model.”

Today at the daily briefing pivoting from thousands of people dying to the kind of models he's been involved with.


Just when he can't get any lower, he says that.

 

Ultimate Peach



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  posted on 4/4/2020 at 02:27 PM
The interesting question is how low can he go and some will still try to "explain" it. When this is over there will be a lot of people who say something like "I never really supported him, I was just against The Dems or the media or whatever dumbass rationalization they talk themselves into believing.

 

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Universal Peach



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  posted on 4/4/2020 at 04:32 PM
quote:
The interesting question is how low can he go and some will still try to "explain" it. When this is over there will be a lot of people who say something like "I never really supported him, I was just against The Dems or the media or whatever dumbass rationalization they talk themselves into believing.



The rationalization I usually hear from regretful Trumpet's always relates to Hilary Clinton and how they just couldn't vote for her. To which I respectfully ask what it is about her that they hated so much.

Most times it's "she would have taken our guns." Here in upstate, NY, the gun control issue was and still is a hot topic. It partly explains why Andrew Cuomo is not as popular here as he is in the vast majority of New York. Around these parts some, all these years later, can't get over his push for the Safe Act.

I suspect many who hated him a month ago are coming around to his competence and experience with things like Covid 19....The same thing occurred after Sandy as that storm pounded much of upstate, NY and Cuomo and the state apparatus were here in force and managed that incredibly destructive storm quite effectively.

People haven't forgotten that and they're reminded of it everyday when he holds a press conference. Especially when they contrast him with Trump's ineptness.

 

Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 4/4/2020 at 07:22 PM
quote:
The interesting question is how low can he go and some will still try to "explain" it. When this is over there will be a lot of people who say something like "I never really supported him, I was just against The Dems or the media or whatever dumbass rationalization they talk themselves into believing.



The lower he goes, the more his fans love him. Here is the process:

1. Trump says or does something stupid.
2. The media reports on the stupid thing Trump said or did.
3. Trump's fans blame the media for reporting on what Trump said or did and call it fake news.
4. Trump fans feel like they have to support him even more because the media is unfair.
5. Anybody who is critical of the stupid thing Trump said or did must be accused of having Trump Derangement Syndrome.

The gaslight is complete. Trump has trained his cult to disbelieve anything bad against him. Anything that doesn't praise him is automatically Fake News and should even be looked at. I never would have thought this would happen in America on such a large scale, but here we are.

 

Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 4/4/2020 at 07:42 PM
As far as discussing the models, I can say honestly that I am unqualified to comment. Models in general are a tool based on assumptions that may or may not be accurate. One thing that appears to be misreported is the death rate. Most people are calculating it by dividing deaths by total confirmed cases. Two problems with that. First, it should be deaths divided by total recovered, since we don't know the fate of those with the virus that haven't had the virus run its course. Using that criteria, the death rate is much, much higher. Second, we really don't know how many cases are out there. There has been a serious shortage of testing, plus many with milder cases aren't going to the doctor at all. Very likely there are at least 10 times the number infected from the official confirmed cases.
 

True Peach



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  posted on 4/5/2020 at 04:23 PM
I see what you mean, but wouldn’t we have to add the recovered and the deaths to arrive at a total figure that excludes ongoing cases and then divide deaths?

Either way, both rates are problematic in an ongoing outbreak.

I’m by no way qualified either but I try to keep up.

In Ohio there are 3 different peak periods based on 3 different models with one producing a specific date April 19th, one with a second-third week of April peak and one with a mid-May to mid-June peak. And I’m sure there are more than 3 models.

On one hand because of so many assumptions, variables and fluid data it makes modeling impossible to rely on. Then on the other hand, crisis managers do need some kind of data to coordinate decision making.

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 4/5/2020 at 04:32 PM
quote:
In Ohio there are 3 different peak periods based on 3 different models with one producing a specific date April 19th, one with a second-third week of April peak and one with a mid-May to mid-June peak. And I’m sure there are more than 3 models.


I profess to know a little more than nothing about this whole event. My best guess is that the "Experts" know not much more than we do, that in itself represents almost as much to fear as the Virus.

"Stay at home"..Yet restaurants are still offering "food to go"
Hotels are open
Nail salons are open and considered to be "essential services"
Auto Parts shops are open

The list goes on, is it any wonder there are so many "models"?

 

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That Pro-Abortion chant, "My body, my choice"....Can this be applied to the wearing of masks?

 

True Peach



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  posted on 4/5/2020 at 04:55 PM
I wonder exactly how many different models there are? Globally I would there be over a hundred?

Suppose we could call them educated guesses if we want.

The essential business designation is very vague and open to interpretation. I can say, here, there are no nail salons open.

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 4/5/2020 at 04:59 PM
quote:
educated guesses


 

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That Pro-Abortion chant, "My body, my choice"....Can this be applied to the wearing of masks?

 

True Peach



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  posted on 4/5/2020 at 05:22 PM
Better than uneducated guesses.
 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 4/5/2020 at 05:28 PM
quote:
Better than uneducated guesses.


Haha!...I "Guess" this would correct, but in this case, "Is it comforting"?

 

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That Pro-Abortion chant, "My body, my choice"....Can this be applied to the wearing of masks?

 
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