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Author: Subject: College Football 2018

Zen Peach



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  posted on 11/26/2018 at 11:40 AM
Saw early lines:

Bama -10 1/2

Ohio St -14

Clemspn -25

Wash -3

OU -7 1/2

 

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  posted on 11/26/2018 at 03:08 PM
quote:

I know we have alot of Big Ten fans here. Boy does the league really suck this year. Wonder if bad Ohio State will show up next week? Go Cats!


Huh? Do you follow college football?

Three teams are in the top twelve. Sorry it isn't everyone's darling SEC.

 

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  posted on 11/26/2018 at 05:28 PM
quote:

Huh? Do you follow college football?

Three teams are in the top twelve. Sorry it isn't everyone's darling SEC.


Ah, yeah I follow college football.

And because I watch the actual games I can say, the Big Ten sucks this year.

Ohio State? This is the worst version of Ohio State since 2011. Not a great team. You watch the games vs Maryland, Minnesota, Indiana, Purdue...do you think this Ohio State team is great and compares favorably to their past editions under CUM?

Michigan...Michigan had a nice season, which means absolutely nothing now after getting drubbed in their biggest and most important game of the year. That #1 defense is literally a national laughing stock right now.

Northwestern the West Champ. Hey, I have no problem with an 8-4 Northwestern. That is about what they should be every year. But they were 10-3 last year so certainly a case can be made they are worse this year than last. What's the difference? NW benefited from a weaker Big Ten and weaker West division this year.

Who else should we talk about...Wisconsin, not a good team. Michigan State? Michigan St is just as inept on offense right now as they ever EVER have been. You watch any of that Rutgers game?

Purdue? Sure they beat Ohio STate (who isn't great) and then look what they did after that...barely got to 6 wins. They lost at home to EAstern Michigan.

Penn State? Obviously down from the previous two seasons.

Iowa - about average for them. Minnesota - about average for them. Indiana - about average for them. Illinois bad. Rutgers bad. Maryland - about average for them. Nebraska, will be back, but not good right now.

So I mean, what do you have to say to this? The Big Ten sucks this year. I don't care about rankings. Rankings I don't watch. Football I watch. Tell me, have you seen something different than I have?

 

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  posted on 11/27/2018 at 08:38 AM
Wow, seem to have struck a chord. Sorry. My bad...

 

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  posted on 11/27/2018 at 09:39 AM
quote:
Wow, seem to have struck a chord. Sorry. My bad...


No that is the fun part, debate!

 

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  posted on 11/27/2018 at 10:46 AM
quote:
quote:

Huh? Do you follow college football?

Three teams are in the top twelve. Sorry it isn't everyone's darling SEC.


Ah, yeah I follow college football.

And because I watch the actual games I can say, the Big Ten sucks this year.

Ohio State? This is the worst version of Ohio State since 2011. Not a great team. You watch the games vs Maryland, Minnesota, Indiana, Purdue...do you think this Ohio State team is great and compares favorably to their past editions under CUM?

Michigan...Michigan had a nice season, which means absolutely nothing now after getting drubbed in their biggest and most important game of the year. That #1 defense is literally a national laughing stock right now.

Northwestern the West Champ. Hey, I have no problem with an 8-4 Northwestern. That is about what they should be every year. But they were 10-3 last year so certainly a case can be made they are worse this year than last. What's the difference? NW benefited from a weaker Big Ten and weaker West division this year.

Who else should we talk about...Wisconsin, not a good team. Michigan State? Michigan St is just as inept on offense right now as they ever EVER have been. You watch any of that Rutgers game?

Purdue? Sure they beat Ohio STate (who isn't great) and then look what they did after that...barely got to 6 wins. They lost at home to EAstern Michigan.

Penn State? Obviously down from the previous two seasons.

Iowa - about average for them. Minnesota - about average for them. Indiana - about average for them. Illinois bad. Rutgers bad. Maryland - about average for them. Nebraska, will be back, but not good right now.

So I mean, what do you have to say to this? The Big Ten sucks this year. I don't care about rankings. Rankings I don't watch. Football I watch. Tell me, have you seen something different than I have?


Well at least the Big 10 still has a dog in the playoff hunt (Ohio State needs some help) but the Pac12 has been %^#(*. Like Michigan, WSU laid an egg against the Huskies and at home too.

I like watching Alabama's offense play (Tua throws the best pass; heck I could catch them) but I'd like to see Georgia win this Saturday. Congrats to ND for going undefeated. Some games weren't pretty but the Irish got it done which included a lot of traveling too.

As for my Bruins, we didn't expect a New Years Day game but neither 3-9. CCK has his work cut out for him this offseason.

Good luck to all those who have teams playing this Saturday. Crazy things can happen in conference games.

 

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  posted on 11/27/2018 at 12:02 PM
quote:
quote:
Wow, seem to have struck a chord. Sorry. My bad...


No that is the fun part, debate!



Okay, I'll play.

You said you don't care about rankings. Fair enough. BUT, don't you think Ohio State, Oklahoma, Georgia and UCF care about the rankings? Obviously only four teams get in.

You may not care about the rankings but they matter, regardless of our thoughts.

Hey, it's a better system than we had.

 

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  posted on 11/27/2018 at 12:37 PM
Wow, Mack Brown gets the North Carolina job. Good for him! I thought Texas kind of screwed him over. I think he's 67 so he could probably get through a few recruiting classes. Happy for him.

I think he's a great coach.

 

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  posted on 11/27/2018 at 07:57 PM
quote:
Wow, Mack Brown gets the North Carolina job. Good for him! I thought Texas kind of screwed him over. I think he's 67 so he could probably get through a few recruiting classes. Happy for him.

I think he's a great coach.


I thought he was in his 70s. If he still has the coaching bug, go get'em Mack!

 

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  posted on 11/27/2018 at 11:34 PM
quote:
Okay, I'll play.

You said you don't care about rankings. Fair enough. BUT, don't you think Ohio State, Oklahoma, Georgia and UCF care about the rankings? Obviously only four teams get in.

You may not care about the rankings but they matter, regardless of our thoughts.

Hey, it's a better system than we had.


Before the rankings part, just remember I said the Big Ten sucks this year, it is compared to prior years of the Big Ten. One could measure the strength of the league by the number of teams that are ranked, or if one or more teams makes the playoff. I think that is kind of abstract way of doing it. Top to bottom through this year, well maybe not bottom, but top through middle the 2018 Big Ten is not as good as 2017 or 2016. Maybe sucks was a little over dramatic, but not nearly as good and no number of teams ranked in the top whatever can tell me this 2018 Big Ten is as good or better than prior years because it's not.

Ok. The teams don't control who the committee selects. The teams don't control where they get ranked. Do they care about rankings? Well coach speak we get from August through most of November coaches will say things like "we just have to focus on us and our team and getting better" or "we have a good opponent this week that is all we can worry about". Because rankings are part of the outside "noise". How many times have you heard coaches and athletes say 'control what you can control'. The extent these teams care about rankings, they won't really care much until after they play their final game or entering their final game because at that point they have done all they can do, they have controlled as much as they can control and then it is in somebody else's hands.

The rankings matter for what...maybe a pool of 8-12 teams in the country. Really there are only a handful of teams that start the season with a realistic chance of being selected for a national title playoff. There are 130 teams in IA / FBS college football. I care just as much about Marshall playing Virginia Tech this week as I do Alabama playing Georgia. I just don't need any kind of ranking or title game to tell me which game I'm supposed to care about. Playoff implications mean nothing to Marshall or Virginia Tech, or Stanford or Cal, but they are going to go out and play a game and compete just to win the game. That is good enough for me without any bigger picture things at stake (VT is playing for bowl eligibility).

The playoff and the national championship is really just a small portion of the overall season and what teams play for. Over 90% of the teams have a very slim chance of being ranked in the top 4 any given year, so then I would say I care about the playoff like 10% of my interest. In all honesty I don't even watch all of the national title game. I didn't see the second half of last year's game. I didn't watch the FSU-Auburn game. They were both great games, I just didn't need the entertainment those nights, the season was already over for me and who won the final game was meaningless. I get I'm the exception as the average fan probably is more drawn to that game than a random week 9 game. But bet your bottom dollar that first game of the year, I don't care if it is Wake Forest at Tulane I am dialed in on that baby.

Is the system better than what we had? I do like 4 teams qualifying for the title pool although I have some different feelings on how they should be selected. I hate the committee. If the conversation goes to "6 or 8 would be better than we have now"...I would have a problem with that and could only go allow with such change under some very specific criteria. 4 is the best number. Very selective based on results, as it should be.

Look at this year. We have two, probably three excellent teams. You don't have to be undefeated to be a great team, who and how you beat teams and who and how you lost to makes up the resume that everyone should be graded by. But we have Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame all great teams. ND is surely the most vulnerable and suspicious of the 3, but I definitely say they deserve to be in the group and it would be a shame if they were left out just as other #3 teams had been left out of the BCS system. Now we have flawed teams trying to fill this #4 spot. I'm ok with letting a flawed team in to ensure we include a #3 team who deserves it. But if we are going out to 6 or 8 teams we are going to get a lot of warts compared to the cream of the crop and frankly I don't think teams deserve a national title shot when you go that far down the list because there are reasons they are ranked there and not among the top 4 and in major college football, determining a national champion has always been about the very best teams out there. You go too far down the list and those teams haven't put in the work to be considered among the best.

I could go on about how I would improve the current system. Or you want to start talking P5 vs G5 and if they should or how they could gain greater access to a national title chance I have opinions on that too if you are interested. Or feel free to express your thoughts.

I used to post all the time about all kinds of CFB topics. I still have that in me, I just don't do it here that much. I am ready and willing to exchange any thoughts you would like to exchange.

 

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  posted on 11/28/2018 at 08:12 AM
Regarding your comment about rankings only mattering for 8-12 teams, I totally agree with that. Beyond that, it's probably just a prestige thing. Conference bragging rights I suppose.

But I don't think claiming a particular conference sucks is much of a debate. Sounds more like a definitive statement to me.

I think there's a lot of subjectivity in college sports regarding who is best. The top three this year should be the top three since they are all undefeated. The next few? Everyone could make a case for a particular team. You have three teams with a loss and UCF which is of course making their case. My Wolverines with two losses are as high as they deserve to be.

For another example of subjectivity, look at college hoops. Every March there are teams that claim they should be in The Dance. Another example of subjectivity.

I used the word "subjectivity" too much.

 

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  posted on 11/28/2018 at 09:17 AM
It is subjective how many times you are being subjective.

I really like the fact that the eligible teams at the end of the year who compete for the national title are among the very very very best, an elite group who have displayed excellence throughout the year, the teams at the top of the rankings. I do not think it would be the right thing to do if we had an expanded playoff and saw some 8th ranked 2 loss team that had already lost to two teams ranked ahead of them win it all just because they were playing the best football at the end of the year. To me, those loses they suffered earlier in the season should matter and be held against them.

I mentioned I hate the committee. I do. I do not like the fact that a group of people can sit in a room and pick Ohio State over Penn State in 2016 when Penn State had beat Ohio State, Penn State won the division and Penn State won the league. To take Ohio State over Penn State at that point is the exact opposite thing we should be doing. We should reward teams who win conferences. Even though they went on to win it all, I do not believe that Alabama last year, or Ohio State in 2016 should be in the playoff when they aren't the best team in their division, why should they be allowed to compete among other best teams who are conference champions?

We had that problem with the BCS too and I've always hated it.

I would love for the conference title games to be a prerequisite for advancing into the playoff. That adds to the playoff really. And does make the qualifying process of the regular season to win one's division part of the playoff as well.

So if you give me 4 teams, conference champions only, the highest ranked 4 champions I would be very happy with this system. I would reduce the impact the committee has with their subjectivity because the field of teams eligible is further reduced giving them fewer choices and making the actual games won matter more.

I think it would be great if the Group of 5 did their own 4 team playoff. There are some obvious and not so obvious problems with that, but I feel that would be the best solution to their access problem. Really, in the scenario I just typed about getting 4 conference champions only, UCF would have greater access to that because, if Georgia beats Alabama this week, or if Northwestern beats Ohio State or if Pitt were to beat Clemson...that opens the door for UCF to be a conference champion ranked higher than NW or Pitt and it wouldn't matter if Bama or Clemson or OSU were still ranked above UCF at that point because if UCF won they would be eligible for the 4 team playoff and the loser of those P5 title games would not.

 

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  posted on 11/28/2018 at 08:53 PM
Neb, who you like this weekend?

 

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  posted on 11/28/2018 at 09:08 PM
quote:
Neb, who you like this weekend?


Well, really I haven't thought about it much. It's historically not a strong week to pick for me as the matchups don't suit my picking style. I do like Buffalo. Maybe UAB, Texas, ULL, Fresno, Pitt and Marshall.


 

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  posted on 11/28/2018 at 09:39 PM
quote:
quote:
Neb, who you like this weekend?


Well, really I haven't thought about it much. It's historically not a strong week to pick for me as the matchups don't suit my picking style. I do like Buffalo. Maybe UAB, Texas, ULL, Fresno, Pitt and Marshall.





Quite a few of the dogs then.

I really like Clemson and I also think OU will be out to avenge their archrival loss from earlier plus try to stay ahead of Ohio State in the committee's view. That OU defense, or extreme lack thereof, does concern me though. Also, I believe the OU/Tex game is early. If OU would happen to wax the Longhorns, and the Buckeyes have that knowledge I could see them really struggling with Northwestern. Conversely, if OU gets beat, that Big Ten game could turn into a beatdown.

 

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  posted on 11/28/2018 at 09:54 PM
Yeah I predominantly bet underdogs or small favorites. I might bet a dozen double digit favorites over the course of the entire year.

4 TDs in a conference title game. I take that on principle almost without even knowing the names of the teams.

I also have a hard time with the "they will want to impress" type thinking because they are playing a team on the other side of the ball who is trying to win for their own reasons. We were talking about some games last week elsewhere and somebody said about the Holy War "these kids don't want to be the ones that let the winning streak snap in their home finale"...well yeah, they might not want to, but BYU had plans of their own. Now Utah came back to win, but trailed for 57 minutes and failed to cover. Same with Wisconsin "they might be down this year, but they will be up for this game to not be the ones that gave the Axe back to Minnesota"...sure they didn't want to lose the Axe, but just because they don't want to or want to do something doesn't mean it happens like that.

So I think like that sometimes.

I am going to be full bore rooting for Northwestern to win. I have no interest in betting Ohio State to lay 2 TDs even after seeing the Michigan game because I can't un-see all their prior defensive breakdowns and poor OL blocking games.

Good luck on what you decide. I really enjoy finding off the radar games to bet usually so that is why this week isn't my kind of week.

 

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  posted on 11/28/2018 at 10:14 PM
It is slim this week. I was hoping OU would be a good pick but Iíve noted the reservations that nebish stated above.

 

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  posted on 11/28/2018 at 11:02 PM
I've in general been a fan of Herman's job at Texas and Orlando's defenses there. It can be a challenge to play good D in the Big Xll.

The biggest x-factor in the game is Kyler Murray running. If you watched the WVU game, you can see just how dangerous he is and difficult to account for. If you rush him he can escape and make big plays running. If you rush 3 and drop 8 as WVU often did to try and keep him in the pocket and throw, then the D can't cover for that long and he eventually finds somebody to throw to. OU's traditional running game isn't as good as it used to be (when Anderson was healthy) so Murray is the one that does most of the damage.

Texas O doesn't have this kind of capability. Ellingher is a good running QB, the kind that lowers his shoulder (too often, he's injured it a couple games ago). So the Texas O just isn't as dynamic and is more dependent on the actual play calls working than making it happen on the fly like OU is.

The thing that helps all of OU's opponents is how poor their effort, scheme discipline and tackling are on D. The Sooners tend to make even an average offense look great (see Kansas 2 weeks ago).

Texas was able to build a nice lead vs OU the last game, I think they may've led by 3 scores if I remember right. UT will be lucky to have that kind of lead again this time, it's just hard to image OU falling that far behind...even if they do, like they did before they certainly possess the capability to come back.

I will say that Tom Herman's teams are fantastic underdogs with 3 straight up wins when dogged this year. Last year they only pulled two upsets including the bowl win, but they were 5-1 ATS as a dog. It goes back to Houston too where Herman teams were a perfect 5-0 straight up when underdogs. That makes a 13-1 record ATS as a dog. Whatever he does, it works.

Biggest concern for backing Texas would be Ellingher's health. He didn't look like himself vs Kansas. He wasn't bashful about running tough as always and delivering hits, but his decisions and/or confidence wasn't quite normal throwing leading to accuracy issues. If that happens again here it is going to be trouble. His history says he is excellent protecting the ball while still making big plays so KU game is either an anomaly or there is something more to it.

 

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  posted on 11/29/2018 at 12:15 PM
Yes, I read about with Texas and Houston Herman's squads are 12-0-1 ATS as a dog.

I've generally taken whoever lost a rivalry game when that team gets a second shot the same year. And, I did see Ehlinger's struggles last week, I agree with you that he seems to definitely be playing hurt. I'll roll the dice with the Sooners.

I think Dabo is likely justifiably upset with the "effort" of Clemson's defense last week. I imagine that they'll play with their hair on fire this week. I don't see Pitt possibly scoring more than 10. Just have a feeling that Clemson crushes 'em this weekend.

 

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  posted on 11/29/2018 at 02:02 PM
Neb, check your PMs.

 

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  posted on 11/29/2018 at 03:26 PM
Yeah, I think the Ohio St / NU game could be interesting depending on what happens earlier. I saw Lincoln Riley getting asked about that and he actually didn't really dance around the question.

Because I think Alabama will beat Georgia and then it depends (assuming of course they win) who would get in, Oklahoma or Ohio State?

My prediction is that Ohio State gets in. I'd give them a shot against Alabama. One of my best friends is a die hard Buckeye. He thinks this will be Urban's last go around. Can't say I disagree with that. Can't blame the guy but given his health issues I can certainly understand if he decided to bow out.

Should be a fun weekend!

 

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  posted on 11/29/2018 at 03:52 PM
And yes, Harbaugh can't beat anyone. Not sure who would be a reasonable replacement but I think Michigan could afford to pay him off and be done with it. It's ben a mess.

 

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  posted on 11/29/2018 at 04:30 PM
quote:
And yes, Harbaugh can't beat anyone. Not sure who would be a reasonable replacement but I think Michigan could afford to pay him off and be done with it. It's ben a mess.


He's not going anywhere but does seem to have some John Cooper in him

 

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  posted on 11/29/2018 at 07:46 PM
quote:
Yes, I read about with Texas and Houston Herman's squads are 12-0-1 ATS as a dog.

I've generally taken whoever lost a rivalry game when that team gets a second shot the same year. And, I did see Ehlinger's struggles last week, I agree with you that he seems to definitely be playing hurt. I'll roll the dice with the Sooners.

I think Dabo is likely justifiably upset with the "effort" of Clemson's defense last week. I imagine that they'll play with their hair on fire this week. I don't see Pitt possibly scoring more than 10. Just have a feeling that Clemson crushes 'em this weekend.


Taking Oklahoma and Clemson would be the reasonable, more likely things to do. I tend to expect the unexpected and pick that way. But over the long run, if you bank on what should happen with better teams in better situations you do well.

With Oklahoma you obviously will have the best player on the field. And while I said I'm not a big fan of picking games on the "they will want to" angle, if OU is up one score and in position to kill some clock or add another one, then your point becomes more valid.

And with Pitt, it is hard to see Pitt being the kind of team that can challenged Clemson. We know they beat Clemson in 2016, but that Pitt team was built different than how this one tries to move the ball and win. I still think they might be alright trying to hang in a 28 pt number...but yeah, I watched the entire Duke-Clemson game and when that D is dialed in a team like Duke, or Pitt in this case is really up against it.

Do you bet team totals? I do not. Maybe a few during bowl season. But I wonder what Pitt's team total points will be?

 

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  posted on 11/29/2018 at 07:56 PM
quote:
quote:
And yes, Harbaugh can't beat anyone. Not sure who would be a reasonable replacement but I think Michigan could afford to pay him off and be done with it. It's ben a mess.


He's not going anywhere but does seem to have some John Cooper in him


I love Harbaugh. I loved him at Stanford. I love him at Michigan.

I just like his personality, his attitude and think he is good to have in the college game.

And it makes me sad to see that Michigan is not getting the results because that might lead to Jim wanting to leave, or as we are seeing, more frustration from Michigan fans.

But I can't imagine a better fit. He played at Michigan under Bo. He has played in the NFL and coached in the NFL. And he has won in the NFL and at the major college level. That Stanford rebuild was no joke, they were BAD when he came in and USC was on top of th the world and he knocked them off. He has the exact resume you would want. I want him to succeed there. But after 4 years what do they have to show for it?

I want to cut him some slack. It is difficult right now of the OSU ass whoopin. When I look back, they have been really close in some of those key MSU and OSU games that they lost. Here is the biggest issue I think....#1 the QB position has been a revolving door. I do not understand why no Harbaugh recruit has been able to elevate to a starting role. Either he is not evaluating talent properly or the development isn't taking place, or both #2 I think they still lack overall talent on O. The OL has always and continues to be a disappointment under Harbaugh, this year was better in that category. But then the difference makers on O just don't really impress that much vs the top caliber teams. You look at the skill OSU had on the field last week and it was like Michigan was playing with subpar talent that shouldn't be the case. It is hard to knock what they and Don Brown has been able to do on D, even though this week was bad. They looked slow. I do think the talent is there and was there last year also. The D has the tools to get it done. Just a bunch of head scratching right now after The Game. I would want Harbaugh to stay and I hope he wants to stay. I can't imagine a better fit. There are plenty of examples where coaches and programs struggled for a bit but they stuck together and finally they broke through. We all thought that would be this year for Michigan. I have confidence that Harbaugh can lead them where everyone wants them to go. Optimism right now is difficult however.

 
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