Thread: Math

LeglizHemp - 5/18/2020 at 11:45 AM

90000

1500 x 7 = 10500

1500 x 30 = 45000

45000 x 7 = 315000


nebish - 5/18/2020 at 01:06 PM

You think those numbers are going to continue throughout the rest of the year?

That is very simple math.

But even very complex mathematical models have often been wrong, some more than others.

I am hopeful, somewhat realistically I think, that cases and deaths will drop over the summer and then this fall there will be medicines available for the symptoms and severity of the virus that lead to greater success at treating the virus.


LeglizHemp - 5/18/2020 at 01:14 PM

No, I believe they will rise, but I hope you are right.


nebish - 5/18/2020 at 01:17 PM

One thing is for sure, I don't think anyone really knows what to expect.

I can certainly see reason they could rise. I have some assumption that the severity of the virus might follow a seasonal trend. It isn't going away (unless it acts like SARS) and most likely will return in the fall, but I expect better preparedness and methods to fight it. Only time will tell.


LeglizHemp - 5/25/2020 at 01:55 PM

100,000 today, will the math hold true for next monday? Time will tell.


nebish - 5/26/2020 at 02:44 AM

Maybe...probably?

You are projecting out 7 months. I think the numbers will not sustain at the level that long. But we'll have to see.

As of right now .5037% of the US population has been infected, .0297% has died. If the number of confirmed cases is half of what the actual is, ok, let's say, that means 1.007% of the US population has been infected. Just some context.


nebish - 5/27/2020 at 02:57 AM

quote:
100,000 today, will the math hold true for next monday? Time will tell.


I do see different sources reporting different data, but the NYT (98,933), covid tracking project (93,093) and the John Hopkins (98,913), CDC (98,261) site all have the death toll under 100,000 still as of late afternoon Tuesday.

Actually according to covid tracking site (which is showing the lowest total death count as of 5/26), the reported deaths are slowing. The last 3 days have averaged 602 deaths a day, compared to the 5 days prior to that of a 1329 per day average. Perhaps there will be revisions to the last 3 days that will bring them up? WSJ says 655 new deaths occurred from Monday 8pm to Tuesday 8pm.

Is there a delay in reporting or is the drop a short-term drop that will rise back up to the higher average, or will this decrease be sustainable? Each of the last 3 days on the covid tracking project site have reported deaths under 700, that hasn't happened in a long time.

Which source are you using that showed 100,000 deaths as of Monday?


2112 - 5/27/2020 at 04:46 AM

This site seems to be reliable and very up to date. They have the death toll over 100,00 now:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


LeglizHemp - 5/27/2020 at 12:59 PM

That is the one i use. Now it does include US Territorys and the VA. Monday seemed abnormally low, but it was a holiday.


nebish - 5/28/2020 at 12:14 AM

quote:
This site seems to be reliable and very up to date. They have the death toll over 100,00 now:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


So many different sites with different numbers. Thanks.

quote:
That is the one i use. Now it does include US Territorys and the VA. Monday seemed abnormally low, but it was a holiday.


Think you are probably right with not just Monday being a holiday, but perhaps the entire weekend there could be a lag in reporting. Will have to see where the numbers go and if they revise any past numbers or if there is a jump in the new ones.


LeglizHemp - 5/28/2020 at 02:59 AM

They are predicting 132,000 deaths by the end of July now. I find it hard to believe that there will be less than 500 deaths per day, 10 days after the average was 1500 and it was predicted there would be 3000 by the end of June. With the lack of masks and social distancing I saw this weekend.........Time will tell.

And actually, there were 1500 just today, and all of last 10 days almost.

[Edited on 5/28/2020 by LeglizHemp]

[Edited on 5/28/2020 by LeglizHemp]


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