I'm just gonna leave this here...
https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/On-the-Wells-report.pdf
In the current “Deflategate” controversy, the New England Patriots have been accused of illicitly deflating footballs before the start of their 2015 American Football Conference championship game against the Indianapolis Colts. The National Football League and the lawyers it hired have produced a report—commonly known as the “Wells report”—that has been used to justify penalties against the Patriots and quarterback Tom Brady. Although the Wells report finds that the Patriots footballs declined in pressure significantly more than the Colts balls in the first half of the game, our replication of the report’s analysis finds that it relies on an unorthodox statistical procedure at odds with the methodology the report describes. It also fails to investigate all relevant scenarios. In addition, it focuses only on the difference between the Colts and Patriots pressure drops. Such a difference, however, can be caused either by the pressure in the Patriots balls dropping below their expected value or by the pressure in the Colts balls rising above their expected value. The second of these two scenarios seems more likely based on the absolute pressure measurements. Logistically, the greater change in pressure in the Patriots footballs can be explained by the fact that sufficient time may have passed between halftime testing of the two teams’ balls for the Colts balls to warm significantly, effectively inflating them.
The Patriots won.
Next.
48 hours until the big appeal. Does anyone expect Goodell to do anything? If he does, it's only because he thinks the NFL will get creamed in court.
"I think, and it’s pretty clear to me, that if they don’t get relief from Goodell, that Brady and his lawyers are prepared to go to court and file suit against the NFL.” - Sal Paolantonio on WEEI
"Brady may or may not win his appeal. But there is one sure loser here, trapped in a box of his own making: the commissioner." -Sally Jenkins in the Washington Post
Sally Jenkins hits the nail on the head again. alloak if you are reading this, be forewarned, it is an opinion piece.
Why Roger Goodell might be in tough spot on Tom Brady suspension
by Sally Jenkins, Columnist, Washington Post, June 17
Tom Brady is said to be seeking total exoneration, and it appears he’s entitled to it. The idea that Brady and the New England Patriots intentionally deflated footballs for a competitive advantage has been discredited by everyone from sidewalk chemists to Web physicists to unlicensed ceramicists, not to mention your own common sense. But most importantly, it is utterly shredded in a new scientific analysis by the American Enterprise Institute, which shows the only inflation problem is in NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell’s head.
The NFL paid millions for a fundamentally flawed report by lawyer Ted Wells that made Brady and the Patriots out to be slam-dunk guilty, based on more than 100 pages of mathematical analysis of ball pressurization .?.?. that turns out to be erroneous. The AEI’s report totally rejects the finding that the footballs used by the Patriots in the AFC championship game had a significant drop in air pressure compared with those used by the Colts. But the truly damning sentence is this one, buried in its erudite phrasings and equations: “The Wells report’s statistical analysis cannot be replicated by performing the analysis as described in the report,” the AEI concludes.
Basically, the math didn’t add up. It’s a standard principle in science: If you can’t replicate a set of results, then there is a problem with it. A flaw or a fraud is at work. Either you made a mistake, or you made it up.
When the AEI analysts looked more closely at how such a mistake could have been made, what they found “astonished” them, says the report’s co-author Stan Veuger. The Wells report “relies on an unorthodox statistical procedure at odds with the methodology the report describes.” Translation: The Wells report said it would use one equation but then used a different (and weird) equation to arrive at its numbers.
“It was really clumsy,” Veuger says. “It’s the kind of mistake you’d see in freshman statistics class.”
Another phrase possibly applies to all of this:
Falsifying results.
Normally, these “special counsel” reports are airtight documents. They’re meant to give sports leagues an unshakable legal basis for discipline and protect league integrity. The report by Major League Baseball on Pete Rose’s gambling was an unassailable document of 215 pages that included 313 witnesses and seven volumes of exhibits, including bank and phone records and transcripts of interviews that made it impossible for Rose to fight his banishment. But lately the NFL has begun turning these special counsel investigations into manipulated campaigns calculated to enhance the commissioner’s profile and powers.
And they seem to be written to fit predetermined conclusions.
Twice now Goodell has ginned up false scandals that seriously and unfairly targeted individual players and damaged franchises on what turned out to be bogus or flawed evidence. Forget his bungled handling of Adrian Peterson and Ray Rice — at least those guys actually did something wrong. In the DeflateGate and BountyGate affairs, Goodell hammered people who appear to have done nothing.
After winning his fourth Super Bowl, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has cemented his legacy as one of the best NFL players of all time. The Post Sports Live crew debates where he ranks among the elite. (Post Sport Live/The Washington Post)
The AEI’s entry into DeflateGate is important because the institute was a major factor in righting the Goodell-driven injustice in BountyGate back in 2012. The commissioner went all hanging judge on the New Orleans Saints, suspending several officials and players for a supposed bonuses system to injure opponents between 2009 and 2011. But then AEI analyzed injury data — something that surely the commissioner should have done. The AEI found that the Saints injured fewer opposing players than all but two teams in 2009 and all but one from 2009 to 2011. After AEI’s report was presented at an NFL hearing, the suspensions were vacated.
AEI is a conservative think tank that normally doesn’t get into sports issues. But given its experience with BountyGate, the DeflateGate case was too inviting. The discussion of ball pressurization in the Wells Report was so contested that Veuger and Kevin Hassett, AEI’s director of economic studies, decided to examine it.
“There was a lot of talk about the report not being good,” Veuger said, “and a fairly big chunk of it was stats analysis and data, and we thought, ‘We might as well look at this one and see if it holds up.’ It’s really a hobby.”
Goodell is now in a truly interesting and awkward position. In one week he will hear Brady’s appeal. He has said, “I very much look forward to hearing from Mr. Brady and to considering any new information he may bring to my attention.”
Well, here is a boatload of very inconvenient new information.
Does Goodell stand by the conclusions of the Wells report, dig in and refuse to budge — thus establishing that he’s incapable of fairly considering evidence and is a serial abuser of his powers? Does he try to parse and sidestep the AEI analysis by claiming the scientific evidence is just a small part of the case against Brady? Trouble with that is, more than half of the Wells report’s 243 pages is taken up by pressure gauges and pounds-per-square-inch analysis — all of which must be thrown out according to AEI. If the balls weren’t deflated, then what’s left? One e-mail exchange, in which Brady complained that some game balls against the New York Jets were ludicrously overinflated. Is this evidence of ill intent? Hardly. Brady’s solution to the over-inflation was to suggest the refs check the rulebook. Not the act of a cheater.
Or does Goodell do the right thing and rescind Brady’s suspension on the basis of the new info in the AEI report — thus admitting the league spent millions on a railroading farce? There is trouble for Goodell in this option, too, because it suggests the league office under Goodell’s leadership is either incapable of executing a proper investigation or unwilling to.
The AEI analysis suggests that NFL Players Association Executive Director DeMaurice Smith was right when he said the Wells report “delivered exactly what the client wanted.” It suggests that this wasn’t an investigation; it was a frame job by the commissioner’s office desperate to re-establish its authority.
Brady may or may not win his appeal. But there is one sure loser here, trapped in a box of his own making: the commissioner.
[Edited on 6/19/2015 by gondicar]
And another voice adds to the growing chorus...
https://www.sciencenews.org/blog/culture-beaker/deflategate-favored-foul-play-over-science
Deflategate favored foul play over science
BY RACHEL EHRENBERG
Hopefully after next week we will never again hear about Deflategate, the controversy surrounding the role of underinflated footballs in January’s conference championship game between the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts. On June 23, the NFL commissioner will hear the appeal of Patriots quarterback Tom Brady’s four-game suspension, one of the punishments that resulted from the controversy. Patriots’ team equipment managers may have intentionally underinflated game balls and Brady may have known about it — I won’t weigh in on that here. But the scandal, which propelled the ideal gas law to the front pages of sports sections, inspired an odd mix of experts to choose science over sports, and that’s almost always a win.
In case you haven’t followed the story: During the first half of the January 18 AFC championship game in Foxborough, Mass., the Colts intercepted a pass thrown by Brady. Suspecting that the ball was underinflated — rules allow a pressure range of 12.5 to 13.5 pounds per square inch (psi) — the Colts requested an inspection. Brady is known to prefer his footballs on the low end, around 12.5 psi, and pretty much everyone agrees that that’s what the Patriot balls were inflated to before the game started. But at halftime, officials tested the Patriots’ game balls: All measured below the minimum required level of 12.5 psi.
Patriots coach Bill Belichick was one of the first to take a stab at the science, citing “climatic conditions,” “equilibrium states” and “atmospheric conditions,” to explain the deflation. This wasn’t a surprising stance; he’s the coach. But it didn’t take long for real scientists — and non-Patriots fans — to weigh in. While Bill Nye (mechanical engineering degree, Seattle Seahawks fan) declared that rubbing the footballs to break them in couldn’t account for pressure changes, others took a measured approach. If the initial pressure of a football measured in a warm locker room during pre-game inspection was 12.5 psi, could the roughly 25-degree-Fahrenheit drop in temperature between the locker room and the rainy field that day account for the lower air pressure of a ball measured at halftime?
Scientist Michael Naughton (expert in condensed matters physics, Buffalo Bills fan) lent his expertise to the matter when the controversy initially blew up. Naughton’s lab at Boston College inflated a football to 13.5 psi at 72° F. Then they stuck it in a fridge and measured the pressure at 42° F (slightly cooler than the low on game night of 47.7° F, the average of measurements from two weather stations near Gillette Stadium). The pressure dropped to 10.5 psi.
HeadSmart labs, a Pittsburgh-based engineering firm that ordinarily conducts research related to helmets and concussions, also turned its attention to the matter. Experiments done by CEO Tom Healy (mechanical engineering Ph.D. student, Patriots fan) and others in the lab (not Patriots fans) simulated field conditions by placing 12 balls inflated to 12.5 psi in a cold room for 2.5 hours. Measurements revealed an average drop of 1.07 psi, well within the range of the halftime measurements. Saturating the balls with water to mimic field conditions bumped the measurements down another 0.75 psi, they conclude in a technical paper. (HeadSmart has launched a crowd-funding campaign to raise research funds to further investigate the matter.)
The kerfuffle provided a teachable moment for physics teachers everywhere, and despite Deflategate fatigue, homework problems featuring the ideal gas law — which relates temperature, pressure and volume to an amount of a gas (in moles) — will likely be assigned for years to come. This science matters well beyond the football field: Understanding the gas law means knowing whether a scuba diver will experience potentially fatal bends when returning to surface waters, why life-saving contraptions like fire extinguishers and airbags work, and how hot air balloons and combustion engines do their stuff.
But instead of acknowledging that game day conditions could have accounted for the psi changes, an acknowledgement that wouldn’t preclude other evidence of foul play, the NFL’s Wells Report concludes that there’s an “absence of a credible scientific explanation for the Patriots halftime measurements.”
It would be one thing if the Wells Report (which consulted Daniel Marlow, experimental high energy physics expert at Princeton) just said that additional evidence (bathroom breaks and text messages, among other things) was more compelling than the pressure data. Or if it noted that the pressure data are ambiguous, collected so haphazardly that they wouldn’t be allowed in a high school science fair: Two different gauges that differed by approximately 0.4 psi were used in taking measurements, and it isn’t clear which one was used in the pre-game measurements because those data were not recorded. At halftime, 11 Patriots’ balls and four Colts’ balls were measured, and while all of the Patriots’ balls measured below 12.5 psi, three of the four Colts’ balls also did, according to one of the gauges.
Post-game psi measurements of four Patriots balls ranged from 12.95 to 13.65. These data, the Wells Report acknowledges (in a footnote), “did not provide a scientifically reasonable basis on which to conduct a comparative analysis.” If the report can acknowledge poor methodology for the post-game data, why not acknowledge that for the pre-game and halftime data as well?
Roderick MacKinnon of Rockefeller University specifically addressed the scientific methodology in a letter posted to The Wells Report in Context, the Patriots’ rebuttal to the report’s conclusions (MacKinnon, professor of molecular neurobiology and biophysics, and chemistry Nobel laureate, was conducting experiments in a basement microscope facility and couldn’t immediately respond to my requests for his team allegiance):
“The scientific analysis in the Wells Report was a good attempt to seek the truth, however, it was based on data that are simply insufficient. In experimental science to reach a meaningful conclusion we make measurements multiple times under well-defined physical conditions. This is how we deal with the error or ‘spread’ of measured values,” MacKinnon notes.
Football fans are a loyal bunch. (Let it be said that I live in Boston and while I appreciate a quarterback who can make fun of himself, I do not have a favorite football team). But it’s refreshing to see some put aside team loyalty in favor of Team Science.
What you need to know about Tom Brady's appeal
Why are we here? On May 12, Brady was informed by NFL executive vice president Troy Vincent that he was suspended without pay for the first four games of the regular season because the Wells report "established that there is substantial and credible evidence to conclude [Brady was] at least generally aware of the actions of the Patriots' employees involved in the deflation of the footballs and that it was unlikely that their actions were done without [his] knowledge." Vincent also noted that the Wells report documented Brady's failure to cooperate fully and candidly with the investigation, while also providing testimony that was deemed not plausible. Vincent informed Brady that if he planned to appeal, he had three days to do so in written form, which Brady did. The hearing will take place 42 days from when Brady's suspension was issued.
What happens during the appeal? Brady and his counsel will arrive at the NFL's Park Avenue offices, and present their case to arbitrator Roger Goodell in a conference-room-type setting. Brady’s attorney, Jeffrey Kessler, has fought the NFL in some of the highest-profile appeals. The hearing is scheduled to begin at 9:30 a.m. ET, according to the New York Daily News. In May, Goodell said he was not "wedded" to the conclusions of the Wells report, or its "assessment of the facts." He added, "I look forward to hearing directly from Tom if there is new information or there is information that can be helpful to us in getting this right." In a four-page letter the NFL Players Association sent to Vincent, as relayed by ESPN's Sal Paolantonio, it highlights what Brady will focus on during his appeal; specifically how the Wells report is "dubious, contradictory, and [includes] mischaracterized circumstantial evidence that does not prove [he] deliberately ordered illegal tampering with footballs." Furthermore, Brady's counsel will focus on how the discipline isn't aligned with the standard level of penalty for tampering with footballs, as detailed in the NFL's game operations manual. The NFL, in turn, will present its own case and evidence.
How long is the appeal? The sides have set aside a second day, on Thursday, June 25, should it be necessary. It isn't expected to last longer than two days.
When will there be a decision? There is no set timetable. In the collective bargaining agreement, it says that a decision must be made "as soon as practicable." As a comparison, Cowboys defensive end Greg Hardy had his appeal hearing May 28 (with Harold Henderson as the arbitrator), and there has yet to be a ruling.
What's next after the appeal hearing? A waiting game until Goodell's ruling, and then the football is in Brady's hands. If Goodell doesn't vacate the suspension and exonerate Brady, the quarterback could decide to continue the fight in court. Or Brady could accept whatever Goodell decides and end the fight altogether.
Again, as a Jaguar fan, our only chance is for the suspension to be upheld, or cut back to 3 games :
2015 REGULAR SEASON SCHEDULE
DATE OPPONENT TIME
Thurs., September 10 Pittsburgh 8:30 p.m. ET
Sun., September 20 at Buffalo 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun., September 27 Jacksonville 1:00 p.m. ET
Oct. 4 BYE
Sun., October 11 at Dallas* 4:25 p.m. ET
Wells is going to be at the table tomorrow and both sides can ask him questions. If I were Brady or one of his lawyers my first question to him would be in three parts: 1) "Hey man, are you freakin' serious?" 2) "I mean, really?" and 3) "Can you prove any of this nonsense, who did what, where, how and when or is your report still hinging on probabilities?"
😛
"God"-ell can ask questions too. I'd love to be a fly on the wall when that goes down.
Just read that Brady is testifying under oath today at his appeal hearing. Didn't know he'd be under oath, interesting.
Also, ESPN detailed all the recent player appeals and it looks like there have been 8 such cases since 2012 and the player has prevailed upon appeal every time.
From ESPN’s Adam Schefter:
“I was told Tom Brady was his greatest ally. He was in that room the entire time and came off, on a scale of 1 to 10, in the words of a person in that room, as an A+, 10 kind of guy,” Schefter reported.
“He gave sincere, genuine answers. He had an explanation for everything that went on in the Wells Report, and anyone who knows and has dealt with Tom Brady knows how genuine he can be. I’m told that genuineness shined through during the course of that appeal, which I think is going to make life more difficult for Roger Goodell to make a decision on.”
A lot of discussion early in this thread was about "He must be guilty because why would the NFL want to make Brady, the golden boy of the NFL, look bad if he did nothing wrong?"
Well...here is some pretty clear proof that the NFL doesn't mind making Brady look bad:
Yesterday Adam Schefter (ESPN) tweeted out that Brady would only be given 4 hours to prove his case. Just 7 minutes later Greg Aiello (NFL spokesman) tweeted out that AS's report was false.
Shefter then tweeted out the actual NFL document that showed where TB would only get 4 hours and Aiello went radio silent. Once again, the NFL was trying to hide the truth.
So, the NFL is very aware of what is being said and if it makes them look bad they jump right in and respond.
Funny how after the AFC Champ Game when Chris Mortensen reported that 11 out of 12 balls were 2psi low the NFL said nothing about it until the Wells report came out (3 months later) even though they knew at the time that it was false info and that they were all closer to 0.5psi low as proven (by the gas law) they should have been. That Mortensen report is what whipped the blind haters into a frenzy and was the single biggest factor in escalating this controversy to national attention. And the NFL did nothing, even though they knew it was wrong and could have nipped it in the bud right there.
http://thebiglead.com/2015/06/24/mike-florio-goodell-underlings-were-out-to-get-the-patriots/
Mike Florio: Goodell Underling(s) Were Out to Get the Patriots
"I believe that Ted Wells thought he was expected to find the Patriots were guilty," Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio said of his impression of the Wells Report in a podcast with The Big Lead, taped this week after the completion of Tuesday's 10-hour merry-go-round in New York City.
That's not a fanboy making the charge in some chat room somewhere. That's the founder and owner of one of the most powerful and respected football websites intimating that the league was paying its "independent investigator" $5 million to find the Patriots guilty.
Doing some Q&A at a football camp for kids, Broncos' Emmanuel Sanders recently said that he thinks the Patriots shouldn't be considered Super Bowl Champions because of deflategate...
"Am I mad about Deflategate?'' Sanders said, repeating the youngster's question. "I feel like I'm on ESPN with that question. Yeah, yeah, I'm kind of mad. I don't think that they should be the Super Bowl champion this year. "You aren't supposed to cheat."
Oh my God, when is this BS going to end? This guy is just another hater frustrated because Tom Brady wins Super Bowls and he doesn't.
On a side note, when Sanders played for the Steelers he was fined for faking an injury. So yea, this guy needs to STFU and be careful who he accuses of cheating.
And how about those St. Louis Cardinals!
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.......................
I know, Doug. Now that the evidence against Brady has pretty much been eviscerated, it has gotten harder for the haters to stay interested, and of course we all know that cheating accusations against other players and teams isn't even worth talking about. 😛
Its all so much less interesting without the rings. Last year's news. Prepare yourselves for the awful headlines, your worst nightmare is returning:
COWBOYS!!!!!!
If I were Brady, I wouldn't accept a plea deal (lesser game suspension) because it just looks like you are admitting some sort of culpability.
I have no dog in the race but that is what I would do. Don't admit to a thing.
Everything in Moderation. Including Moderation.
If I were Brady, I wouldn't accept a plea deal (lesser game suspension) because it just looks like you are admitting some sort of culpability.
I have no dog in the race but that is what I would do. Don't admit to a thing.
Agree, and most "experts" who claim to have insider info have all said Brady plans to take the fight as far as he needs to with complete exoneration as the only acceptable outcome.
Its all so much less interesting without the rings. Last year's news. Prepare yourselves for the awful headlines, your worst nightmare is returning:
COWBOYS!!!!!!
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.....
😛
Its all so much less interesting without the rings. Last year's news. Prepare yourselves for the awful headlines, your worst nightmare is returning:
COWBOYS!!!!!!
Look...MacKenzie made a funny.
yo, listen up, this is easy:
PATRIOTS !!!
I love football, but the NFL sure is effed up. Greg Hardy -- a despicable human being -- just had his 10-game suspension, for beating a woman, reduced to four on appeal.
Hmmmm, four games. Why does that sound familiar? Oh, that's the same as Tom Brady received for allegedly ordering that air be released from footballs. Four games for a man who, according to police reports, slammed his ex-girlfriend on pile of automatic weapons that were spread across a bed? The only reason he avoided jail time was because the victim didn’t show up in court. Hardy should be locked up, or at the very least, should not be allowed to play in the NFL. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is a complete scum-bag for giving Hardy a job. The same can be said for Vikings owner Ziggy Wilf with Adrian Peterson.
As for Brady, one would think his suspension will be reduced to at least two games based on the Hardy decision. But if that is the route Goodell decides to go, then he is sending the message that pounding on a woman is only twice as bad as (allegedly) being generally aware that someone was more likely than not letting some air out of some footballs. Based on this decision, Brady’s suspension should be reduced to ZERO. If not, it means Roger Goodell feels that physically assaulting a woman is the same "being generally aware" that someone was letting a little air out of some footballs.
[Edited on 7/10/2015 by gondicar]
It's been a month now since the appeal hearing. Two weeks ago he said a decision was "coming soon," and now yesterday he said there is no timeline for a ruling. What a joke.
I read last week that the two parties were negotiating some sort of an agreement that would end this for once and for all.
don't hold your breath.
It's the next year already! This is really starting to seem ridiculous.
I hereby take back every bad thing I have ever said about Joe Theismann.
"I do not believe that Tom Brady should have been suspended in the first place, and I still don't believe he should be suspended. There isn't anything in the Ted Wells report that said, 'Tom Brady told someone to .' To me, there's nothing conclusive in there that says he directed anyone to do anything.'' - Joe Theismann
http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/joe-theismann-tom-brady-innocent-in-deflategate-1.10668516
I hate the Patsies, but this is beyond ridiculous at this point. A lot of other way more serious issues to be dealt with in the NFL. End this stuff and let's move on.
It's the next year already! This is really starting to seem ridiculous.
Well, kinda. The new season starts when training camp starts. From the All-Star Break to the end of July (in particular after Wimbledon and The Open Championship both end), this is the time of year when sports ratings and readership are at their lowest. Whatever gets decided will ultimately happen when the lights are brighter.
That whole thing about Brady taking the NFL to Federal court, now, that would be next level, yo. You'd have to change the name of a certain network to TBSPN.
It's the next year already! This is really starting to seem ridiculous.
Well, kinda. The new season starts when training camp starts. From the All-Star Break to the end of July (in particular after Wimbledon and The Open Championship both end), this is the time of year when sports ratings and readership are at their lowest. Whatever gets decided will ultimately happen when the lights are brighter.
No kidding. I like baseball and all, but off-season NFL is still more exciting than MLB division races in July. I think we are all just waiting to see what the latest awesome Packers throwback uniforms they will be sporting while demolishing opponents this year.
good ol' PCB is firing on all cylinders in July!
very cool.
going to be one heck of a season. 
now if you'll excuse me, out of sheer obligation, I have to go bump the "Patriots Champions" thread.
heh heh...
