90000
1500 x 7 = 10500
1500 x 30 = 45000
45000 x 7 = 315000
You think those numbers are going to continue throughout the rest of the year?
That is very simple math.
But even very complex mathematical models have often been wrong, some more than others.
I am hopeful, somewhat realistically I think, that cases and deaths will drop over the summer and then this fall there will be medicines available for the symptoms and severity of the virus that lead to greater success at treating the virus.
No, I believe they will rise, but I hope you are right.
One thing is for sure, I don't think anyone really knows what to expect.
I can certainly see reason they could rise. I have some assumption that the severity of the virus might follow a seasonal trend. It isn't going away (unless it acts like SARS) and most likely will return in the fall, but I expect better preparedness and methods to fight it. Only time will tell.
100,000 today, will the math hold true for next monday? Time will tell.
Maybe...probably?
You are projecting out 7 months. I think the numbers will not sustain at the level that long. But we'll have to see.
As of right now .5037% of the US population has been infected, .0297% has died. If the number of confirmed cases is half of what the actual is, ok, let's say, that means 1.007% of the US population has been infected. Just some context.
100,000 today, will the math hold true for next monday? Time will tell.
I do see different sources reporting different data, but the NYT (98,933), covid tracking project (93,093) and the John Hopkins (98,913), CDC (98,261) site all have the death toll under 100,000 still as of late afternoon Tuesday.
Actually according to covid tracking site (which is showing the lowest total death count as of 5/26), the reported deaths are slowing. The last 3 days have averaged 602 deaths a day, compared to the 5 days prior to that of a 1329 per day average. Perhaps there will be revisions to the last 3 days that will bring them up? WSJ says 655 new deaths occurred from Monday 8pm to Tuesday 8pm.
Is there a delay in reporting or is the drop a short-term drop that will rise back up to the higher average, or will this decrease be sustainable? Each of the last 3 days on the covid tracking project site have reported deaths under 700, that hasn't happened in a long time.
Which source are you using that showed 100,000 deaths as of Monday?
This site seems to be reliable and very up to date. They have the death toll over 100,00 now:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
That is the one i use. Now it does include US Territorys and the VA. Monday seemed abnormally low, but it was a holiday.
This site seems to be reliable and very up to date. They have the death toll over 100,00 now:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us//blockquote >
So many different sites with different numbers. Thanks.
That is the one i use. Now it does include US Territorys and the VA. Monday seemed abnormally low, but it was a holiday.
Think you are probably right with not just Monday being a holiday, but perhaps the entire weekend there could be a lag in reporting. Will have to see where the numbers go and if they revise any past numbers or if there is a jump in the new ones.
They are predicting 132,000 deaths by the end of July now. I find it hard to believe that there will be less than 500 deaths per day, 10 days after the average was 1500 and it was predicted there would be 3000 by the end of June. With the lack of masks and social distancing I saw this weekend.........Time will tell.
And actually, there were 1500 just today, and all of last 10 days almost.
[Edited on 5/28/2020 by LeglizHemp]
[Edited on 5/28/2020 by LeglizHemp]
106925, should be at 111000. Things are looking up
100,000 today, will the math hold true for next monday? Time will tell.
Love the Zappa quote in your signature.
The Torture Never Stops is my ringtone for work.
My every call ringtone is Jessica and when my honey calls it's Sugar Magnolia.
113000, projections were 120000. Will the protests cause a spike? Time will tell.
You are so lucky she gets Sugar Mag. When my ex calls it is a clip I made of five seconds of Donna Godchaux where she shocks you at the end of the Playin In The Band jam, where they go into the last chorus - Hamburg 72 to be exact, terrifying. My brother has the intro of Bitch from Sticky Fingers for when his old lady calls.
My everybody ringtone is Cross Eyed and Painless, Talking Heads. My sweetie ringtone is Girlfriend, Talking Heads.
Should be north of 140k now but only 122k
Revised math
750 X 30 = 22,500
22,500 X 6 = 135,000
122,000 + 135,000 = 257,000
In the areas that were initially hardest hit, there are very few new infections and deaths. In areas that were initially not as hard hit like California, Florida, Texas, and Arizona, the new infection rates and deaths are rising. My county has had 1/4 of our total deaths in the last week. Our new infection rate is also up 3 times from 2 weeks ago.
165,000
750 x 30 = 22,500
22,500 x 5 = 122,500
165,000 + 122,500 = 287,500
I think my 1st post was a better estimate.
I have some assumption that the severity of the virus might follow a seasonal trend.
Quoting myself. A seasonal reduction never happened as we all know. Fauci was hopeful this virus would follow a seasonal trend as well.
You think your first post was a better estimate? In that you feel we will be closer to the 315,000 figure than the 287,500 figure at year's end?
Yes I do. 🙁
Looks like my math was pretty close, maybe a little under.
Your math is simpler than what these models calculate I'm sure
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html
end result about the same 332-362k by 1/2/21.
Some simple math. In November we had a record # of Covid patients in our hospital. We almost reached that number already for December
