You're very welcome everyone for the Fresh Air link.....I too found the discussion fascinating and very enlightening. So much so i think I should read her book in its entirety.
I too was struck by how she explained how Putin became so powerful so quickly. Why and how a mid level KGB member was brought in as a successor now makes sense. I think it conveys exactly why these strongmen, for all their rhetoric about nationalism and patriotism, are really in the end about self-enrichment and grabbing and holding onto power for themselves and their enablers.
Also interesting was how the author pointed out that like Boris, Putin now has to find a successor that will not go after all the ill gotten booty he and his crowd (oligarchs) have squandered away. Maybe that's in fact the end game for Putin at this point. Negotiate and end to the Ukraine war that allows him to exit stage left with the billions upon billions he's squandered away in various corners of the world.
Finally, the close relationship and subsequent falling out between Bill Clinton and Boris was completely new to me. And the story of Boris on the streets of Washington shitfaced and in his underwear yelling for a cab and a pizza. Yikes....
After I listened the Fresh Air show, I flipped over to Sirius XM Progress, but I had missed the Thom Hartmann show, which is the only show I listen to on that channel and instead it was The Michelangelo Signorile Show, but I kept it on. For most of the hour his topic was how Zelensky chastised Germany for enriching Russia through their energy business dealings. I should listen to his speech in it's entirety - a Washington Post writer called it "scathing".
So anyway, the host was upset that Zelensky would berade the Germans for their policy choices in enabling and enriching Russia, while on the same day, also not criticizing the US in his speech to Congress related to Donald Trump's relationship with Putin or Ukraine.
Michelangelo went so far as to say that Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if Trump had never been President. And that through Trump's coddling and subservience of Putin and his weakened stance on NATO (although Trump continues to say things like he made NATO stronger) is what enabled and emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine.
I don't know if this is a widely held view on the left. I have heard the widely held view of the right that Joe Biden's weakness in Afghanistan and the fumbling of the withdrawal from Afghanistan gave Putin a green light to invade Ukraine sensing American weakness.
Personally, I do not think either one is true.
Putin did not need Donald Trump to serve 4 years as POTUS so he could invade Ukraine. He had invaded Ukraine territory before, and other former Soviet states. In some ways, Trump policy might've made Putin think he would not receive as much resistance in Ukraine, but if that was the reasoning, then why wait until after Trump is gone to invade if Trump was the reason he did invade? Saying that Putin would've never invaded Ukraine if Donald Trump had never been President is about as idiotic as saying Putin wouldn't have invaded if Donald Trump was still President. And I don't see a connection with Afghanistan sending Putin a signal that he could invade Ukraine without western resistance.
These kind of far left and far right talking points always seem off in my opinion - rather they have axes to grind and want to score some points. People acting like they know what would happen if this happened different or that happened different. Isn't the whole point here that Putin has wanted to do this for a very long time and regardless of US politics or engagements elsewhere in the world, sooner or later, he was going to do it.
Where are any of you on these questions?
I suggest listening to yet another Fresh Air episode from this past Tuesday, March 15th, in which Terry interviewed Marie Yovanovich, the former Ambassador for Ukraine, who Trump fired. I'm sure you all will remember her testimony in Trump's impeachment trial.
The interview includes significant discussion of Trump's misdeeds in Ukraine and her thoughts on how his behavior and approach in Ukraine then has affected the current situation there. Here's a link. Just scroll down to see Tuesday's episode:
https://www.npr.org/programs/fresh-air/archive
I do remember her testimony. That will be a tomorrow listen.
Had a discussion on another board about what NATO does if Poland or another NATO country is attacked. I said NATO will defend boarders but will not invade or push into Russian territory. Something errant on the part of the Russians (some sort of a miss-fire incident) could happen but my feeling the NATO commanders will take that into consideration and respond appropriately.
Read today that there's some sort of "margin of error" at least on the part of the US if not NATO. 2 or 3 drones have landed in Poland but their origina (Ukraine or Russia) is unclear.
@chain, I listened to the show with Ambassador Yovanovich, although it abruptly cuts off at the 36 minute mark. People in positions like hers, especially what she went through, always provide interesting interviews. In her case, I don't think there was anything new, not that it makes it less interesting, just that it has been out there for some time. The Mary Elise Sarotte interview left me wanting more.
She still seemed a little shocked that it had all happened. The most interesting part was that she was out of the loop from Day 1. She didn't realize that Guiliani & the Ukraine AG had their own agenda & the AG had no intention of prosecuting corruption as required by his government. They saw her as a pest. She didn't realize anything until Trump was interfering w/Congressionally mandated aid to Ukraine in a quid pro quo deal re dirt on Biden. I was surprised that she didn't voluntarily resign when she was asked to make a loyalty oath to Trump. It seemed to take a while before she realized nobody at Trump's State Dept had her back for the 1st time in her 35 yr career.
Another odd source: Anna Tolstoy, granddaughter of Leo, is making the talk show rounds because there's a BBC doc on her relationship w/an oligarch who once was Putin's closest friend coming out. She lives in the UK, but speaks fluent Russian and lived there after she left her husband for the oligarch w/whom she had 3 children while he remained married. The oligarch had a falling out w/Putin & now lives in exile. She really didn't have much to add because she was only in the room once w/Putin during all that time, but she described the culture as "bandits." They each have a little piece of something & will do anything to get/keep it. Ruthless. In the short clip I saw, she had no insight on Putin's mindset (really, how could she?), but didn't think he was acting that much differently from the man her oligarch described to her.
"Another odd source: Anna Tolstoy, granddaughter of Leo, is making the talk show rounds because there's a BBC doc on her relationship w/an oligarch who once was Putin's closest friend coming out. She lives in the UK, but speaks fluent Russian and lived there after she left her husband for the oligarch w/whom she had 3 children while he remained married. The oligarch had a falling out w/Putin & now lives in exile. She really didn't have much to add because she was only in the room once w/Putin during all that time, but she described the culture as "bandits." They each have a little piece of something & will do anything to get/keep it. Ruthless. In the short clip I saw, she had no insight on Putin's mindset (really, how could she?), but didn't think he was acting that much differently from the man her oligarch described to her."
The "bandits" description seems pretty accurate and is supported by many people well versed in Putin and Russia's history. Which makes me wonder at what point the members of this gang of bandits realize Putin is actually a threat to their slice of the pie rather than a protector and take steps to end him.
Is there an heir apparent who will usurp Putin either via backdoor dealings/agreements or a deadly overthrow? Or will it be, as some Russian experts/historians have suggested, the mothers of the dead sons of the Russian army who will start the revolution which could topple the Putin syndicate?
Russian history suggests it's the Russian mothers that Putin should fear the most..
"Another odd source: Anna Tolstoy, granddaughter of Leo, is making the talk show rounds because there's a BBC doc on her relationship w/an oligarch who once was Putin's closest friend coming out. She lives in the UK, but speaks fluent Russian and lived there after she left her husband for the oligarch w/whom she had 3 children while he remained married. The oligarch had a falling out w/Putin & now lives in exile. She really didn't have much to add because she was only in the room once w/Putin during all that time, but she described the culture as "bandits." They each have a little piece of something & will do anything to get/keep it. Ruthless. In the short clip I saw, she had no insight on Putin's mindset (really, how could she?), but didn't think he was acting that much differently from the man her oligarch described to her."
The "bandits" description seems pretty accurate and is supported by many people well versed in Putin and Russia's history. Which makes me wonder at what point the members of this gang of bandits realize Putin is actually a threat to their slice of the pie rather than a protector and take steps to end him.
Is there an heir apparent who will usurp Putin either via backdoor dealings/agreements or a deadly overthrow? Or will it be, as some Russian experts/historians have suggested, the mothers of the dead sons of the Russian army who will start the revolution which could topple the Putin syndicate?
Russian history suggests it's the Russian mothers that Putin should fear the most..
Given that his most touted heir Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is now under house arrest for what Putin knows is bad intelligence, underestimation of military capabilities, and nothing going to plan, who knows? When Putin's term is up in 2024, he doesn't leave; he becomes sort of a chairman emeritus so he still has a say in governance. I don't think Putin cares at all what Russian mothers think & he's well-insulated. The oligarchs aren't suffering. Putin's wealth may mostly be in Russia except for a yacht or apartment here or there; he doesn't need someone who'll let him keep his treasures.
Actually I do think Putin worries about the Russian mothers as they are the part of the Russian population he and his henchman can’t as easily censor from what is happening in Ukraine. Sort of akin to when the pictures of dead American soldiers began arriving home from Vietnam in the early months of an escalated American effort in Southeast Asia.
History suggests it’s this group that ultimately created the movement and momentum to begin two Russian revolutions in the early 20th century. Could this same group begin a revolution as more and more young Russian men come home dead? Especially should Putin ultimately win the war and then begin a extremely costly and lengthy occupation?
My Russian history dates back to college so I'm fuzzy, but my sense was it was crushing poverty, male unemployment that replaced serfdom, and warring political idealists w/clear leaders like Lenin who actually rid the country of czardom. One parallel here is that during WW1, Russian soldiers got a look at French & German military & social constructs that were light years ahead of Russia. This is where I think the breakdown of average Russian soldiers being a fed a lie that they were going into Ukraine as liberators have realized they're aggressors & don't want to be. The NYT did a piece that one of the reasons so many (8) Russian generals have been killed is because for the 1st time, they're actually on the ground - either boosting morale or forcibly leading uncooperative troops. Normally, they're in their safe commanding bunkers. They're also not accurately reporting casualties & they're leaving bodies behind from what NATO satellite & drone pics can see.
Average Russians now have a nice life unlike the years of the USSR. They've become complacent. As long as their daily lives aren't disrupted, they know they've got a corrupt former KGB thug as president for 2 more years.
I'm not sure what the NATO meeting will do. I would like more info as to what "cyberwar" is - can Russia take out EU & US electrical, power, utility, financial grids? Biden telling financial institutions & Fortune 500 companies to make sure they have cyber protections seems a bit tame. I'm probably still stuck in the post-9/11 threat of cyber terrorism to know what the current concern is.
You make good points about the causes for past Russian revolutions for sure. I think all these things combined drove the Russian people to rise up and end the rule of the Czar.
As far as cyber security is concerned, it is an interesting sort of face off that’s occurring. As US intelligence and Homeland security have noted for years now, the Russian gov’t has a very potent cyberwar apparatus. But so do we and so do our allies.
For me the question is what sort of retaliation would the United States unleash should Putin engage in cyber warfare against not only the United States, but a NATO member. Here is where a cold war might escalate into a hot war.
Yaroslav Trofimov, the chief foreign affairs correspondent for WSJ, is reporting that wounded in action/killed in action for Russians is 2.8. U.S. in Iraq or Afghanistan was 7-8. In other words, get injured in combat as a Russian is much more dangerous. Getting wounded to prompt medical care. One more thing they suck at.
Life happened and I fell out of the news cycle for the last almost week. Russia in retreat from Kyiv? Even if they get the Russians to leave or drastically pull back, so much destruction and death - Russia must never be forgiven, these sanctions and more sanctions need to be on Russia forever and ever for what they have done. There is no going back, Putin has buried his economy, his people and his country.
I agree, Neb, Putin needs to pay for the death and destruction he has caused.
For all the talk of giving him an off ramp out of the corner he has backed himself into, I'm not sure that can be done as he's doubling down and pushing forward with even more death and destruction. Does this supposed off ramp include an actual consequence for his actions or does he ride off into the sunset and continue to rule Russia and keep his vast wealth stolen from the Russian citizens?
How does the world give him an out and simultaneously hold him accountable? Quite the conundrum it seems to me.
Premature to be talking about an off ramp although I know that's what the west wants - the war to end w/o escalating. He's signaling he's not interested in western Ukraine (because he doesn't have the military to win that). He can be indicted for war crimes w/o ever going to trial that will carry sanctions of Russia until he's ousted. As for Putin personally, IMO nothing will happen unless there's an unlikely coup in the next 2 years.
“For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power."
Hell of an ending to yesterday's speech. I'm assuming that wasn't written in the prepared version, has anyone heard?
“For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power."
Hell of an ending to yesterday's speech. I'm assuming that wasn't written in the prepared version, has anyone heard?
No, his speechwriters & aides were as surprised as everyone else.
Good for Biden for saying what we all know is true. Pussy footing around and being diplomatic has its place, and Biden and other world leaders have appeased and pleaded with Putin right up until the invasion bega. So saying what everyone is thinking isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Excellent episode of “On Point” this morning with guests Ret. Colonel Alexander Vindman and Ret. Colonel Larry Wilkerson in a very informative and at times combative exchange about what the world and the United States should and should not be doing at this point in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
I missed bits of this but what I heard was very insightful. This is well worth a listen. Here’s a link:
@chain, I get all these recommendations and listen to this and listen to that, you're audio links are better than all the other news source suggestions I get.
I found myself agreeing with Vindman more often than not. Wilkerson raised a few good points, but had a unique view on some things. Definitely a good discussion that would've gotten a bit more heated had they had more time!
Good for Biden for saying what we all know is true. Pussy footing around and being diplomatic has its place, and Biden and other world leaders have appeased and pleaded with Putin right up until the invasion bega. So saying what everyone is thinking isn't necessarily a bad thing.
And Biden's not backing down no matter how many ways reporters ask the question. Yes, he has more foreign diplomatic experience than any other president in history & he is well aware that Putin knows what he and the west think of him & he knows Putin doesn't care. Putin doesn't need an excuse to do anything; he'll just do it. However, it does seem that Putin is backing off Kyiv.
It might be that Russia is willing to let the rest of Ukraine go for the east and the south. Everyone wants the war to stop, stop the killing and destruction - you have to get to that point first. But then what of Russia? Nothing should change economically. And what then for Ukraine and all the people forced to flee and cities destroyed?
Thinking back to the Vindman and Wilkerson conversation, if Ukraine were to keep fighting (and in some aspects winning), that is where Russia could feel forced to use some sort of nuclear weapon. So continually pushing Russian forces back and killing their troops isn't necessarily a good thing. And obviously continuing to let Russia relentlessly destroy cities, buildings and infrastructure is disaster for Ukraine.
They have to find a way to end it, I just can't think it is over for the west vs Russia at that point. Keep that boot on their neck forever. How can anything go back to how it was with them or Putin? What if a Russian condition to ending fighting is lifting of sanctions? What would the choice be - keep sanctions and possibly allow the war to continue or weaken sanctions in the effort for peace? That is not enough punishment for what Putin has done.
Glad to hear you enjoy “On Point,” Neb....Like Fresh Air, it can be hit or miss with its topic each day, but I find the reporting, questions asked, etc. on both shows very in depth and professional.
Another show to listen to is the show “One A.” It too is a National Public Radio produced show and is a good listen.
The war by Russia on Ukraine is looking more & more like Vietnam & Covid - both started on other continents, spread & worsened with time
Why can't they (I don't know who) declare the war a superspreader event, kill 2 birds with one stone & cancel out both -
you can't fight a war 6 feet apart - why fight wars when the soldiers are at high risk from the various virus/viri just showing up at the battlefield, much less in close contact among the blood sweat & tears -
the killing ground would be littered with both pandemic and military victims, & also be the source of the unleashing of a deadly-potent Covid 19 variant that would undoubtedly reach US shores etc &on
little by little, millions of miles away, we got more & more stuck in the Vietnam mud
mankind/the powers that be can't let that happen in Ukraine - let's learn from our past mistakes (and good things)
unless/until we know for sure that Russia is bent on Ukraine as a gateway to world rule, I say withhold US military/weapons of war & Remain Vigilant - Putin is a war criminal - the unprovoked shelling of Ukraine is horrible proof
(sigh) and yet, the US should still be hands off & act w/restraint - imo, Ukraine is the beginning not the end
