One advantage of living near a once thriving industrial city that people like to use as a political football in a battle ground state is you get lots of attention at election time. And it’s always been this way for as long as I can remember. Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton have all had fund raising dinners here. Ben Carson was just here last month. Our Democrat Mayor embraced and endorsed George W Bush in 2004. So it is no surprise that the weekend before Super Tuesday 2 we got our share of political visits from Hillary, Sanders, Trump and Kasich.
Hillary was at a business with about 500 people present Saturday. Kasich was at a business downtown Monday with a couple hundred people reported. Those candidates didn’t interest me at all. What makes this election so unique is what Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump have brought to the table. On Sunday when they both announced they would be having rallies on Monday I figured why not check them out first hand.
Bernie’s rally was at a downtown arena commonly hosting minor league hockey (and at one time minor league arena football). Doors opened at 8, I got there about 7:15 or so to find maybe 300 people in line in front of me. By the time the doors opened I’d say another 500-600 were lined up behind me. TSA and Secret Service handled the security, which was pretty much like sporting event and airport security, although they looked very closely inside my wallet and car keys.
Once inside and being directed to seating sections I learned I would be directly behind the stage, right behind Bernie. The people who got there really early were left center section, my arrival time put me right in prime TV spotting area. I laughed a little outloud as I imagined friends and family seeing me there and asking themselves ‘I didn’t know Scott was a socialist’.
So I got to the seat about 8:20 and the countdown until 11:00 began, that was when Bernie was supposed to come on. The rest of the crowd filled in sections behind the stage and the floor area.
All told I would estimate about 1500+ people were there. I heard one news agency just say ‘over 1000’ and another claim 1800, but 1800 seems high. The floor area was only 2/3 or 3/4 full and only 3 seated sections were full with some people sprinkled in other sections as well. To the camera it looked full, but really it was pretty empty there although I don't know what their expectations were.
It was a very eclectic mix of people as you may expect at a Democrat political rally. I’d say 80% of the people were under 30 and the bulk of that appeared to be still in their early 20s or younger, mostly looking like college kids. A fair amount of odd colored dyed hair, face piercings, hipster clothing...the kind of thing you would see on college campuses. Gay and transgender signs along atleast a dozen or so Sanders buttons with marijuana leaf on them. Some retiree type people, not many at all in my age range of middle aged people. There were a lot of women. I only counted maybe 20 black people. It was very young and very white.
Just FYI, Youngstown especially the areas surrounding the Covelli Center are heavily black neighborhoods. Youngstown State University is very close as well, which can explain the youth, but I would suspect that Bernie’s camp was disappointed with the minority turnout...something that has plagued their campaign when it comes to competing with Hillary.
So 11 o’clock rolls around and the prespeakers start coming up. Of note I found former union leader Bob Sutton making a curious comment. He was bemoaning the fact of the shrinking union membership and power loss citing NAFTA as a primary reason. He said how the union had endorsed Bill Clinton and “in his second term he turned on us and passed NAFTA”. Now it may be a little foggy for him now, BUT Bill Clinton pushed NAFTA through Congress and signed it in his first term and I bet that they endorsed him again in 96 because that is what unions do they blindly endorse Democrats no matter what. A minor fact I suppose. Former Ohio Congresswoman Nina Turner got the crowd fired up for Bernie. She touched on the fact that Bernie was one of a few white men in government to support Jessie Jackson for President in 1988.
The crowd was frenzied. I saw it at both the Trump rally and with Bernie...people really freak out upon seeing them in person. I was subdued, looking on with curiousity, not holding up my ‘a future to believe in’ sign as instructed so the campaign people must’ve wondered why that guy in the key camera section isn’t going bananas.
Bernie came out and gave a typical stump speech most of which I have heard variations before on TV. He swore more than Donald Trump would later that evening. Bernie said damn twice and hell once! The kids loved him. He was pretty funny at times with his political sense of humor towards both Hillary and the Republicans, but he didn’t spend too much time on the Republicans. He did mention Trump a few times, but I think I heard the crowd joke about Trump more. One thing that Bernie was discussing when talking about criminal justice reform...I wouldn’t say he was exactly justifying criminal activity, but he did say that poor economic conditions will force people to do many different things to provide for their family, I was immediately recalling the lyrics to Judas Priest’s Breaking the Law. What he says is true that bad times will result in more crime, but he was saying it in the context of reducing the inmate population and seemed to give an excuse for some of these people who, perhaps in his view, had no other choice than to rob or steal from others to do what they had to. That raised my eyebrow.
Naturally the free college subject was met with great applause and enthusiasm. As was all the anti-Wall Street and demonization of the rich talk. When he was saying the Waltons or some other wealthy family need to pay their fair share, I wondered looking at this mostly 20-something crowd, what is their fair share to pay? Surely we must all contribute something right? On income tax, on healthcare payments, in Bernie’s world just about everyone except for the 1% gets a free ride? Isn’t everyone using some government services or protections that tax dollars pay for? I digress.
He did not mention guns. Didn’t mention ISIS or refugees. No mention of the debt or deficits. He didn’t mention immigration I don’t think other than something to the effect of improving the rights of black and brown people.
Sitting there I would sometimes chuckle at the fact that I was at a Bernie Sanders rally and listening to some of the things I know he would say, but hearing him say it while I was there was kind of surreal.
After about an hour’s speech I got to my car pretty quickly. Walking past the merchandise table outside, I should’ve seen where the clothing was made.
Reflecting some in my car before I pulled out, it definitely felt like I was at something along the lines of a movement – which Bernie’s message is a movement. He’s pushed Hillary towards him and she has stolen his thunder to a large extent. But what she says, doesn’t feel like a movement. Bernie is authentic. His belief and his passion for what he speaks comes through on the stage.
A rundown on the Trump rally later.
I couldn't help but think seeing all the younger people maybe skip school that day to show up and trying to explain why so few middle aged people, people in their prime working years weren't there...well I guess somebody has to earn the money to give away to others!
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I am disappointed by Bernie's performance in Ohio, surely he is too. Hillary had begun downplaying expectations here. I went to Experience Hendrix last night so saw no coverage and am just getting caught up now. I did vote for Bernie. Being at the rally with my view on things kind of being what they are made it a little tougher to do it though. Ultimately I viewed it as a reward for his consistent position on trade and how it effects US workers. I could meet Bernie somewhere in the middle on health care and his Wall St and banking positions perhaps. And it voted for Bernie to help continue his battle vs Hillary. My one vote just wasn't enough for him. I'm just not ready to vote for Trump...if I ever will be.
Now for the Trump rally. It was advertised for 6:00 at the Youngstown Regional Airport. It does have limited commercial flights, but it is mostly an Air Force Reserve base with very scarce public parking and no other parking available in the immediate area. I saw President Bush there in 2004 and as they did for that event, they used as many as ten buses to move people from a minor league baseball stadium about 15 minutes away.
My friend and I got to the ball field around 3:45 and I expected a big crowd, but there was not one. We got on a bus and were quickly in the air hangar. The first thing I noticed was a very large presence of news media. I saw the reporters I normally see on local TV and also national TV. Major Garrett was probably the biggest national name. By contrast, I saw no familiar face in terms of reporters at the Sanders event. We all know why so much media was at the Trump event...that’s where the action is! Plus Donald just gets tons of media attention even without any recent protester news.
I have a poor perspective for estimating people at this event since we were all on a flat concrete floor and we were pretty much in the middle. I’d say when I got there about 4:15 there were maybe 500-600 people there, that may be low. I thought there would be more, but again, there very well may have, it was hard to tell just how wide the crowd went on the sides. By the time Trump arrived at 6:30, at the time I would’ve guessed maybe 2000 people filled the hanger, very hard to judge. Based on the Sanders event and Trump’s popularity I was expecting something like 3000-4000. When I came home a local news channel said 4000, but no way were there 4000 – that may have been what was anticipated (and in part some of which were turned away). I read today that almost 3000 was reported in attendance and I can believe that.
One big development was at 6:00 the buses stopped shuttling people from the offsite parking. News reports vary widely estimating 300-1000 people were in line to get on the buses at the time that were turned away. And there were protesters in the parking lot, not when I was there, but later when the buses stopped running. The news showed them carrying signs with words blurred out due to vulgarity. From what I could tell they mostly looked like young black adults.
There were no protesters at the Trump event in the hangar. A recorded message came through the PA system prior to his arrival saying it was a private event and that protesters would be removed and there was a protesting area set up outside the event for peaceful protesting – which I didn’t see, but reportedly some people were protesting out on the roadside. The PA announcement then instructed event goers what to do in near a protester ,to hold up signs and chant Trump so security could remove the protester. The announcement said something like “do not engage or touch the protester†and a few people booed. Wrapping up they said this is a “peaceful event†and most everyone cheered.
It has been speculated that the parking shuttle with offsite parking was a tactic to not have any protesters at the event. I would disagree. Like I’ve said I have been to a political event there before and simply, there is just no other way to get people on and off the airport here. It makes for a good story for people to say they used it to control who would get into the event, but that isn’t the case.
If the Bernie crowd was 80% under 30, the Trump event was probably 60% over 30. Not to over generalize, but many of the younger people looked like the former “jock†type person. I think you probably know what I mean. I wouldn’t say there were many ‘redneck’, ‘hillbilly’ or even some say ‘white trashy’ individuals...there were some I suspect if I am good at judging a book by it’s cover, but a very small amount that I could tell. Trying to gauge minorities in attendance I counted 7 black men and 1 black woman, younger-to-middle aged. It was majority men, maybe 65-35 men to woman ratio...Bernie was closer to 50-50 sex mix. This time the pro-marijuana pins and hats from Bernie’s event were replaced with NRA and firearm manufacturer hats and shirts.
Trump ran a little late. I heard chatter around me of the common right wing stuff, nothing bad, just something about George Soros, Move On.org and that kind of stuff. Really I couldn’t hear too much chatter that matters. Some jokes about Bernie Sanders, which is funny because the only jokes I heard from Bernie supporters earlier that day were about Trump.
When Trump arrived it was quite an entrance. With the hangar south doors wide open we could not see the plane land or approaching the hanger, but when the music changed we soon saw the nose of the plane come and park broadside in front of the open hangar. The plane was there a while before the door opened and when it did it many of the people present acted like it was a rock star was coming out. I hear now that Sarah Palin was supposed to be with him too – I may have had to leave if she would’ve been there.
It was as civil as a Trump rally could be...no protesters...I didn’t think there was anything objective people would see as over the line with regard to immigrants. Now the media on the other hand, he wasn’t holding back against them and the crowd ate that up. Twice very harsh tone calling out the media, the usual you know ‘dishonest’ ‘disgusting’, crowd reacted like they too have genuine distain for the media. That was about the only red meat he threw out.
It was a little different speech. I watch a lot of these candidates on TV and listen on the radio so I hear the same thing a lot. Trump opened with the Iraq war and Iran and a lot of middle east in general to open. On Syria he didn’t talk too much about the war there or the refugees, but he did say about building a safezone over there instead of bringing them here and then read a poem he credited to an Al Wilson song. I had not heard him do it before, but now I know he has been doing it for a bit (video from a previous speech):
He probably got it in a chain email or something one time, you know he isn’t shy about getting things off the internet for him to comment on and promote.
After that it was most of the typical stuff.
The message on trade and infrastructure was similar between Sanders and Trump. Sanders has a long and consistent voting record on trade, Trump has rhetoric that he has yet to match with his actions – but the message is the same. Sanders touches on the issues with lead in our water system, which Trump does not, but it would appear both want to spend more money here on our roads, bridges and public transportation system (to a varied degree).
He talked about the wall and when it was time to say who was going to pay for it and putting his hand up to his ear the crowd yelled out “Mexico!â€. He then went on to say there are many different ways they can pay for it and he isn’t picky. Bernie did a similar call and answer to his supporters asking what his average donation was? And the crowd shouted out “$27!â€
He didn’t hit Hillary or Bernie too hard. He hit Kasich very hard in ways I had not heard him attack him before.
The problem with any Trump rally or speech is the facts or lack of facts. He’s very loose and fast with facts as we know. There were lots of head shaking and eye rolling moments for me, but it was fun. He has the entertainer thing down pretty good.
Then I come home and watch Don Lemon’s show on CNN and they say that somebody checked Trump’s speeches and every 5 minutes he either exaggerates, embellishes or lies. I’d say that was consistent with the night. Not sure I would say he deliberately lies every 5 minutes, I just think he lacks some core knowledge of subjects and says things that are untrue, but not intentional lies. End result is the same though.
Before the event they did a pledge of allegiance led by a decorated retired military veteran and there was a singing of the star spangled banner and some religious talk and a prayer. The last part really turned me off, I’ve about had it with all religion in politics and I did not appreciate the words leading up to the prayer. You know forces of evil taking God out of our country and stop the abortion, etc., etc, etc. I can tolerate religious speech if it is uplifting and unifying type like in my Mom’s church, but this was very charged and political – which I don’t identify as being part of what Trump stands for, but you have to be all things to all people when you are trying to be President. He’s found a way to steal those evangelicals away from Cruz. The prayer in itself without the speech was fine.
By contrast, no surprise there was no prayer or pledge of allegiance or national anthem sung at the Sander’s event. If the Republicans have too much of it, the Democrats don’t have enough. Everyone could skip the prayer all around, but some show of patriotism or love of country would be nice at the Democrat event.
Exiting the event was tough, but it could’ve been worse. Imagine 3000 people leaving an air hangar and trying to form a line to board 1 or 2 buses. There was only 1-2 buses on site at a time as several rotated to and from the baseball field. We waited an hour to get on the bus, which was pretty good, I bet many people had to wait up to 2 hours after the event ended based on the line behind us. And it started raining and cold wind blowing about 10 minutes after we got on the bus.
I spent about 10 hours total between these two political events Monday. I enjoyed it, seeing these outsiders stirring the pot on their respective sides of the equation is something that has made this election like no other atleast since the 1960s. Love or hate either one, there is a phenomenon taking place with both sides. The Democrats have their super delegate system to ensure the party gets the candidate they want, the Republicans on the other hand are bracing for perhaps the end of their party as we know it. Good riddance to both parties. Power to the independents!
Thanks for writing this up. It was a very interesting read.
I can't remember where I put the comments about early voting Democrats switching party to vote supposedly for Trump and Martin Savage of CNN was in our area 2 weeks ago to report on it. The report aired Tuesday and this morning our own 570 WKBN Ron Verb was supposed to be interviewed on CNN this morning, but the President's Supreme Court announcement bumped him.
Now many have speculated that blue collar Democrats were switching to vote for Kasich so Trump wouldn't win. That does not appear to be the case in our Mahoning and Trumbull counties (heavily blue collar, union and traditional Democrat stronghold). Trump won both counties. Democrats in Ohio do not like John Kasich so I find it hard to believe that they were voting for him, but in some areas maybe.
I'm not sure anyone really cares about some counties in Ohio that nobody ever heard of really, if you know Jim Trafficant this is where he is from. Allow me to post this anyway in case it provides some insight on did happen or may happen in the future.
Data from the board of elections:
2008
Mahoning County
Democrat votes cast 81,558
Republican votes cast 13,234
2012
Mahoning County
Democrat (Obama uncontested) 33,593
Republican 15,278
2016
Mahoning County
Democrat votes cast 36,060
Republican votes cast 34,503
Trump 17,139 (50.6%)
Kasich 12,669 (37.4%)
2012 Trumbull County (2008 primary not available)
Democrat (Obama uncontested) 15,621
Republican 15,329
2016 Trumbull County
Democrat 33,186
Republican 28,742
Trump 15,125 (52.6%)
Kasich 9,792 (34.07%)
For the state Kasich won 46.8% to Trumps 35.6%
Here, to me, it still looks like the spike in numbers wasn't necessarily due to energized Republicans or new voters turning out for Trump, as early voting had indicated there seems a significant Democrat crossover for Trump. Will that be the case in the general if Trump is the nominee? I'll say this, again, Democrats here will not be crossing over for Kasich should some craziness go down at the convention and he is the nominee.
Some further Ohio numbers
Total 2008 Primary Republican votes = 1,095,917
Total 2012 Primary Republican votes = 1,199,850
Total 2016 Primary Republican votes = 2,043,043
Total 2008 General Republican votes = 2,501,855
Total 2012 General Republican votes = 2,593,779
Total 2016 General Republican votes = ?
(edit - different sites show slightly different numbers, but close enough for conversation here)
2008 and 2012 saw over 100% gain in the general vote from the primary. I don't think that can be expected this time however just because it would yield such a large number, but how do I know. This was the 2nd largest primary voter turnout ever in Ohio (2008).
All the provisional and absentee ballots have not been counted yet.
Trump got 727,585 of that 2,043,043 number. How many of the other candidates primary vote could he get in the general? And how many people who historically don't vote in the primary but vote in the general can he get? Or did all the people that typically show up for the general show up this time for the primary?
I should have studied political science.
[Edited on 3/17/2016 by nebish]
