Unfortunately, I think it's too easy to give favorable numbers by simply not testing?? As prevalent as this virus is, from what gather, still no where near enough tests being done, nor results coming in??.........stay careful......joe
That is a fair point. Allow me to counter that under testing can cut the other way too. How many people self quarantined with symptoms and since recovered never having a test? How many A symptomatic people had it, never knew it and don’t have it now? We don’t know now, point being these unconfirmed cases and recoveries skew the recovery count too low. If the recovery count was higher the resulting mortality rate or ratio would be lower.
Yesterday (after Trump left) was a pretty good briefing. Today wasn’t real strong on new data updates. It doesn’t appear they are going to update their model unfortunately. If they put it out there, I think they owe it to us to keep it updated with current data. This is disappointing.
Unfortunately, I think it's too easy to give favorable numbers by simply not testing?? As prevalent as this virus is, from what gather, still no where near enough tests being done, nor results coming in??.........stay careful......joe
That is a fair point. Allow me to counter that under testing can cut the other way too. How many people self quarantined with symptoms and since recovered never having a test? How many A symptomatic people had it, never knew it and don’t have it now? We don’t know now, point being these unconfirmed cases and recoveries skew the recovery count too low. If the recovery count was higher the resulting mortality rate or ratio would be lower.
Yesterday (after Trump left) was a pretty good briefing. Today wasn’t real strong on new data updates. It doesn’t appear they are going to update their model unfortunately. If they put it out there, I think they owe it to us to keep it updated with current data. This is disappointing.
Good points throughout Your post nebish, I hope the mortality rate is falsely high, be a relief to see any better news than what we are expecting, I think the data I have locally may support that my mostly rural county only has maybe 30,000 people, 21 cases but of the 21, 3 dead, thats what 14%???? High?............Hang Tough.........joe
A key forecasting model used by the White House has revised its prediction of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S., now estimating a peak of 60,415 by early August.
The model created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington had predicted a peak of 81,766 deaths in an update on Sunday.
IHME is one of, if not the, most optimistic model out there. The director of the University of Washington's School of Medicine was on CNN last night to discuss:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/health/ihme-updated-covid19-model/index.html
Meanwhile the White House again did not offer any formal updates to their estimates.
Ohio's initial model had projected daily peak new cases would be 9800 a day. Current estimates are showing 1600 daily cases at the peak (model being Quantitative Epidemiology at the Infection Disease Institute of the Ohio State University - there are others in the state, but like the federal government use of UW IHME's model, Ohio has seemed to favor the OSU model).
Per Cuomo press conference today going over the models; the Columbia University model as of 3/29 had projected 136,000 hospitalizations just in NYC. McKinsey model projected 110,00 hospitalizations statewide. A second McKinsey projection estimated 56,000. On 4/1 IHME model projected 73,000 hospitalizations statewide. "The current trend...is about 18,000 hospitalized right now", said Cuomo moments ago. The most updated IHME model predicts peak hospitalizations for NY occurred on Wednesday and peak deaths Thursday.
