The Ramblin' Man can afford to answer the Highway Call and evacuate to Blue Skies and Bougainvillea and beat this Pattern Disruptive weather should he decide.  Thoughts and prayers for those in his area who do not have the financial or other wherewithal to do so.  Sitting on pins and needles as I watch the Weather Channel try to decide the exact pattern of Ian.  Not sure which way to run should I decide to evacuate.  Starting to look like the hurricane will cut across Florida - indundating those of us in south Georgia and north Florida with some much unneeded rain (we're soaked form 2 months of regular rain).  Worst case - Ian crosses Florida and goes into the Atlantic and picks up steam again.  Between NCAA football and Hurricane Season - fall is a very nerve-racking season!

Oh I have no doubt he'll be safely evacuated somewhere, I'm just hoping his house isn't demolished.

And for selfish reasons I'm hoping he doesn't lose anything irreplaceable, know what I mean?  Wouldn't it suck to learn he's got a roomful of ABB film footage that gets washed out into the Gulf?

And I agree about life in the hurricane zone.  Things are stressful enough without having to stare at spaghetti models all summer.

@looziana_lou Where Mr. Betts lives and Tampa too haven't had a big blow in over 100 years.  This one is threading the needle between Cuba and Mexico and coming up in the Gulf of Mexico and into Florida on the west side. 

Hope his beautiful home, boat dock and swimming pool survive this. And his 40 guitars and other equipment. Son Duane has three of Dickey's electrics and some acoustics with him and he lives in a very nice condo in Malibu, California. 

Maybe if it does get bad Dickey will be LongTime Gone!

I'm in south east FL, we had a ton of rain and a few tornadoes touch down near by over night and the eye hasn't even hit the mainland. The cone will miss us but the storm is pretty massive and it's moving really slow towards Orlando. For those of you who haven't been through a hurricane, houses is FL are mostly cinder block and can withstand a hurricane. I'm sure his house (I believe he is in Osprey FL) will be fine - ours was built in 1945 and still trucking. The bigger worry is a tree falling over on your roof or power getting knocked out for days and not having access to fresh water/food. Inland it can actually be worse because that's where all the tornadoes touch down and waterways flood.

@porkchopbob Best wishes, thoughts and prayers for you and yours!  My former brother in law (deceased sister's husband) is in Cape Coral, which is right about where the hammer head is about to strike the nail.  I called him a couple of days ago and urged him to drive up to my house in SE Georgia.  He declined the offer - blaming "parking lot interstate".

Yes, the houses in Florida are - for the most part, designed to withstand a "typical" hurricane.  You can certainly lose all of or part of your roof system in 100 (+) mph wind.  A 16 foot storm surge?  That's a chance that I wouldn't want to take.

Here in the Golden Isles - for safety, we're moving to a hotel on the mainland - just in case they close the causeway.  We're only looking at a glancing blow - a lot of rain and some 50 MPH wind.

Bob, please check in and let us know how you're fairing through this.

Prayers and peace to you!

R

UPDATE:  Here in the Golden Isles the projected storm path seems to have shifted just a tad further east, but the wind forecast has been updated from 50 mph to 65 mph - nearly actual hurricane speed.  I am hoping that the storm passes us at low tide - which saved us a lot of trouble during Matthew.

Posted by: @rusty

Yes, the houses in Florida are - for the most part, designed to withstand a "typical" hurricane.  You can certainly lose all of or part of your roof system in 100 (+) mph wind.  A 16 foot storm surge?  That's a chance that I wouldn't want to take.

I'm not trying to minimize a hurricane, I wouldn't want to be in the path of this one - it's big and slow. Like I said, we had tornadoes nearby here in the outer bands - 500 miles from the eye - and it ripped off a roof and flipped over cars. Obviously everyone should be careful and stay safe. I'm just saying, there are lots of brick sh1t houses in FL that have been standing for years. It's most important to be prepared, and the Betts family are hurricane veterans.

@porkchopbob I was a media specialist for the group (company) that publishes and promulgates the building codes (ICC) for 25 years.  I've come in behind many hurricanes to take pictures and document damages.  Events like the one staring you in the face right now are often life changing.  They can even remap geography at times (islands that weren't there before, new inlets, wider creeks etc.).  I know that you are a seasoned Floridian.  Please take care and precaution just the same.  Again - please keep us posted of your immediate experience.

Thanks @rusty but I think our area is actually past the worst of it, I'm just hoping it starts to fall apart today as it hits the gulf coast.

The real bummer is today is my anniversary but my wife got COVID this week so she has to sleep outside in the hammock until she tests negative. I should probably check on her 😉

@porkchopbob Yeah, just leave her out there in a hammock and let those hurricane winds blow her Covid all over everybody else in the state!  😉

Hey!  When it rains - it most certainly pours!  My own wife fell down some stairs on Friday night - creating a compound fracture in her right, radius.  The "little old lady" aunt that I take care of is 2 weeks out of back surgery and has about as most walking around sense and awareness as most 85 year-olds.  I'm a long-time "gimp" myself.  If we had two snare drums and a flute, we'd resemble that "Spirit of 76" painting.  We're gonna get through this though!   

Also, HAPPY ANNIVERSARY! to you and the missus!  

FYI - if it ain't too personal - where in SE Florida are you?

@rusty Thanks! and I am more worried about you and your wife - do take care. You could be the next JaBuMa!

We're in Delray Beach, about 15 miles south of West Palm Beach. We were at a wedding at a casino in upstate NY, the most COVID-likely trip you can imagine, so just glad to beat the storm back after our return flight got canceled. I'll probably be out in the hammock by the end of the week.

Funny things happen in unfunny situations, including hurricanes.  Jim Cantore gets hit by storm debris: https://twitter.com/gifdsports/status/1575204822243954690?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1575204822243954690%7Ctwgr%5E229764453294c399f502e71234a90e1b04fd65a4%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.al.com%2Flife%2F2022%2F09%2Fjim-cantore-in-150-mph-sustained-winds-gets-hit-by-tree-branch-during-hurricane-ian-report.html

Thoughts and prayers for all in SW Florida - especially my brother and law and all others in Fort Myers and Cape Coral.

Ian flew past us and headed to Charleston, instead.  Today I am feeling a combination of thankfulness and survivor guilt.   I feel like I was the safe middle section of rope with fire on both ends.

I hope that the Betts' faired well.  Someone told me that Berry Duane Oakley lost his home (not sure where) and might have a Go Fund Me (or other) fund drive. 

I have documented disaster sites for a living - mainly post hurricane and tornado.  I have never seen anything like the scene in Fort Myers.  When my anxiety passes and I've calmed down a bit, I plan to send checks to a couple of viable charities.  I'll help my brother in law any way that I can. 

It just leaves you feeling sick

Peace.

R 

Posted by: @rusty

I hope that the Betts' faired well.  Someone told me that Berry Duane Oakley lost his home (not sure where) and might have a Go Fund Me (or other) fund drive. 

 

Indeed, and sadly also appears Oakleys had no homeowners insurance.

On his Facebook, Oakley writes: 

We are in salvage and clean-up mode. The house is a wash. Unfortunately, we didn’t have insurance.

I am so humbled and grateful for all your help and support. I know many people outside of the circle assume that musicians make a huge living but honestly as a bass player for 30 years I have been able to survive and cover my bills. 

We are upside down and a mess trying to plan and find a new place to live.  We will be temporarily living in a hotel as we have four kids and a cat.

I need to find a home in Venice or South Venice (Florida) as my children all attend schools in the area.

On a separate note I want to thank all of you that have helped and sent what you could. 

We are extremely grateful and so extremely humbled by everyone’s graciousness.  We cannot begin to tell you how much it helps us right now. 

Thank you all for all the help that is coming in and continuing to come in. We are so grateful.  Every bit helps.

Those wishing to donate to his recovery fund may click here for more details: PayPal.me/BerryOakley.

Story here:
https://jambands.com/news/2022/09/30/allman-betts-band-bassist-berry-duane-oakley-and-family-lose-home-in-hurricane-ian/

A few observations:

Contrary to PorkchopBob 's observation that most Florida homes are built like bunkers - while this is true of many of the older, cinder-block homes, there are quite a number of mobile home (type) communities throughout Florida.  A lot of the destruction on Sanibel Island involved these communities.  These are a total wash - just gone.  My brother in-law lived in about as sturdy a house as you'll find.  I haven't been able to talk to him yet, but his was across the street from a canal.  I can't imagine that his house was not filled with water and mud.  I'm sure that he lost all contents (furniture, cars in garage, and family mementos and keepsakes).  It's also hard to immediately ascertain damages to the foundation.

From my own experiences - when you buy a home, you are REQUIRED to have insurances.  I'm  not sure if flood insurance is required, but living along one of America's "bathmats" would certainly make having flood insurance a good idea.  A news story that I read says that a huge number of people (80%?) in the Fort Myers/Cape Coral area were NOT insured.  I am wondering what this is going to do to the banking industry.  When the residents default on their loans via bankruptcy (anybody else see this coming?) - the lenders are probably going to have to eat most of these loans.  I'm not an economist, but this could certainly rock the boat of the financial world.  

I'm going to sound like a partial dick here but I'd like to point out that many of the folks in Florida have right-wing political leanings.  Hear them grumble over Federal assistance or the forgiveness of student loan debts.  These same folks (especially the uninsured) are probably going to demand that brother Joe start writing some checks.  I am not kicking anybody while they're down - not at all.  As stated, I'll make donations - especially to folks like my brother in law and those that I know personally.  If possible, I'll show up (when allowed) with shovel and squeegee to help clean up.

Yeah, as a mere bassist Berry Duane might not be the richest rock star in Florida.  Evidently, he doesn't make enough to afford insurance.  But people like Berry - and the Betts' do have a network of fans and musical brotherhood who will run right to Go Fund Me or Pay-Pal to send their gifts of financial love.  Most of the residents in the area will depend on government and family/friend assistance.  I'd imagine that many will end up with nearly nothing.  Not picking on Berry for having loving fans - not at all.  Just pointing out what might be some disparaging differences in realities.  

Peace, love and prayers for assistance for all of those in Florida and South Carolina.

R 

@rusty I wonder how the Dickey Betts house made out? I'm seeing such awful devastation on TV. Structures reduced to rubble. Boats and cars thrown around like toys and now they say over 77 dead. 

Yes I read Berry Duane Oakley's appeal on line for help. His house was completely destroyed and he had zero insurance. Dickey is a multimillionaire with a good size mansion in a gated community so there isn't a chance Dickey didn't have any insurance. 

My heart goes out to those suffering in Florida today. It's a real tragedy! 

Posted by: @rusty

Contrary to PorkchopBob 's observation that most Florida homes are built like bunkers - while this is true of many of the older, cinder-block homes, there are quite a number of mobile home (type) communities throughout Florida. 

We were speaking regarding Dickey's house (he and his house are reportedly fine), and I said most "houses" in FL are built of cinder block, which is true. There are about 800,000 mobile homes in FL out of about 10 million houses.

Pre-fab home communities are always a different story. Obviously those communities are the most vulnerable in natural disasters, whether it's in FL hurricane or inland in Tornado Alley. More recently built pre-fab homes are more hurricane-resistant than older models, but Ian was incredibly powerful. Fort Myers Beach is an old beach town, less built up and wealthy than nearby San Marco or Naples so it was much more vulnerable to such a powerful storm. It's all very sad, but even more so when you see how the people who have the least have the most to lose.

I saw the video of Berry's house (I believe he is in Venice) and it appears a tree breached the roof allowing water to come in and completely take out the ceiling. It's really sad. I'm not sure how he had no insurance, not my business. That was a huge issue in NYC after Hurricane Sandy - a Brooklyn apartment building never needed flood insurance before that, but a lot of 3rd generation owners were forced to sell their family homes and buildings. But in FL? You're just waiting to lose everything. I thought it was required.

It will be interesting to see how FL rebuilds, like people in CA moving back to wildfire-prone areas after losing their house, the risk remains (if not greater). FL developed rapidly in the 20th century, removing natural protective mangroves to make way for condos and sandy beaches, paving over wetlands that could soak up storm water. Some of these barrier islands might not be sustainable so close to sea level, especially on the gulf coast where the sea shelf is much lower. The insurance will be astronomical.

There's a famous house off the shore of Fort Myers called the Cape Romano Dome House, was supposed to be a house of the future, completely self-sustainable. It was built on a small barrier island in the 1960s, until storms caused the current to change and the island to disappear by the early 1980s. The last of the house was finally destroyed by Ian. Some of the islands like Sanibel and Pine Island lost their access due to the storm washing out the land fill the road was paved over. The cost to rebuild that is going to be steep, like after Katrina, they have to rebuild stronger. Biden has already pledged the Feds will pay to rebuild much of the damage, essentially bailing the state out, which is probably a tough pill for DeSantis to swallow after spending millions of dollars on his political stunt.

Not making light of anything or anyone, but wanted to comment about homeowners insurance in Florida.  As my initial reaction was probably a lot like others who thought "how could that be?" that a homeowner could or would not have insurance.  But the homeowners insurance industry in Florida has been a mess for two decades (or longer).  Many major insurers simply walked away from Florida.  The largest home insurer now in Florida is state-owned because Floridians were having so much difficulty getting coverage on their homes from private insurers.  The average policy is north of $4k per year in premiums, which is highest in the country.   I could see how some Florida homeowners let policies lapse or were unable to find coverage after their prior insurer left the state.

And less than 5% of homeowners have flood insurance. 

The florida homeowners insurance issue is gonna be more of a mess after Ian and the $30-40 Billion in property damage.  I'm sure there will be more bankruptcies of insurance companies as a result (Florida already had seen many before Ian).  And more multi-state insurers will leave the state.

Here's a good article i just found that's worth a read if you're interested:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/01/hurricane-ian-will-financially-ruin-homeowners-00059615

In my state of Massachusetts you are required to have homeowners insurance if you have a mortgage or the bank won't lend you money. But, Florida, who knowns.

Here is something else to know about insurance.  Quite often, you have to ask the right questions when filing a claim.  It can be like a game show.  Seriously.

When we lost our home to the tornado in 2011, we immediately filed the claim.  My wife worked for an insurance company for over 25 years.  She has a black belt in this kind of stuff.  She knew the exact buttons to push and the right questions to ask.  We ended up getting some benefits that a person with the same policy likely would never have gotten, including temporary stay in a hotel and an apartment to live in while our house was being restored.  We found out later that a neighbor down the street - who had the exact same policy - was actually living in their similarly broken house while awaiting repairs.  The neighbor did not understand the policy and did not know the right questions to ask.  The agent did not offer to advocate.