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Author: Subject: Here's the REAL story about that 97% of climatologist

World Class Peach





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  posted on 3/14/2009 at 11:54 PM
http://tigger.uic.edu/~pdoran/012009_Doran_final.pdf

That's the link to the final report by Peter T. Doran from which the 97% figure of climatologists came from. There's a chart there for those who need visual clues, but the basic things there is that
1) they sent 10,257 surveys to holders of Earth Science degrees through questionpro.com
2) 3146 completed the survey (30.7%)
3) Of those who completed the survey 5% listed themselves as "Climate Scientists"
4) This was further broken down into categories of "Climatologists who are active publishers on climate change" and "Active publishers-Climate Change"
5) The group we are interested in is the "Climatologist who are active publishers on climate
change", a grand total of 79 respondents.
6) 76 of those 79 replied "risen" to question 1
7) 75 of the 77 (nope, I don't know why the number is different, just giving what's in the
report) replied yes to question 2.
8) those 75 responses are where the figure of 97% came from

Question 1: When compared to the pre-1800s levels, do you think that the mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively consistent?

Question 2: Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?

So now you know the truth that 97% of the 79 climatologists who completed the on-line survey think humans cause global warming, not 97% of climatologists.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 3/15/2009 at 12:18 AM
quote:

So now you know the truth that 97% of the 79 climatologists who completed the on-line survey think humans cause global warming, not 97% of climatologists.


That's a fair sample. Show how it is not?
If the sample is random it should reflect the general population.

30 % response is a very good sample size.

Show an University (not polluter funded) survey with a bigger discrepancy then you have something..


What Jerry fails to mention is that looking all of 3146 earth scientists responding 80% agree with man made warming science.

He's nit picking with the numbers because, the scientific community disagrees with him.

And fails to mention the studies conclusion. That among those that understand the science of global warming,
those who do the research and publish the papers have generally no doubt about the science.

someday his head will come out of the sand

maybe















[Edited on 3/15/2009 by spacemonkey]

 

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  posted on 3/15/2009 at 08:24 AM
Jerry has not only debunked global warming, he has also shown how much a giant he is in the field of statistics. Very impressive.

Uh, actually, it just shows his ignorance of both science and statistical modeling. What next? Proof that gravity does not really work and that the earth is flat? 1+1=3? Objects in the mirror are closer than they appear.

 

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  posted on 3/15/2009 at 09:29 AM
Nearly 76 self-declared "climatologists" say we need to destroy the Western way of life. Wow, I think we should do so. Any rational person would agree.

 

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  posted on 3/15/2009 at 04:50 PM
While some debate, others are aware of the severity of climate change.

And that work has to begin sooner rather than later. In a recent study1 that expanded on his GCDT presentation, Battisti teamed up with Rosamond Naylor, an economist at Stanford University in California, to look at how changes in seasonal average temperatures could affect global food security. Writing in the journal Science, Battisti and Naylor show that by the end of the century, average growing-season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics will exceed the most extreme seasonal temperatures of the past 100 years. Without adaptive measures, this could threaten the world's food supply, warn the authors.

For crop breeders, who require about ten years to develop a new variety, a deadline of 2030 gives them only two tries to get the right traits into a plant and the plant into the ground. "The effects of climate change are not going to happen tomorrow, but it also takes time to adapt," says Gerald Nelson, a senior fellow at the Washington DC-based International Food Policy Research Institute. "You can't put it off until the problem becomes evident."

http://www.nature.com/climate/2009/0902/full/climate.2009.10.html

 

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  posted on 3/15/2009 at 05:01 PM
Saw a funny bumper sticker the other day:

"Ex-communicated by the Church of Global Warming"

 

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  posted on 3/15/2009 at 06:52 PM
quote:
quote:

So now you know the truth that 97% of the 79 climatologists who completed the on-line survey think humans cause global warming, not 97% of climatologists.


That's a fair sample. Show how it is not?
If the sample is random it should reflect the general population.

30 % response is a very good sample size.

Show an University (not polluter funded) survey with a bigger discrepancy then you have something..


What Jerry fails to mention is that looking all of 3146 earth scientists responding 80% agree with man made warming science.

He's nit picking with the numbers because, the scientific community disagrees with him.

And fails to mention the studies conclusion. That among those that understand the science of global warming,
those who do the research and publish the papers have generally no doubt about the science.

someday his head will come out of the sand

maybe

[Edited on 3/15/2009 by spacemonkey]


Obviously, you haven't gone to the link and read the report. If you had, you'd have read the conclusion.
"It seems that the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely non-existent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes."

What they left out was the last part of a sentence "and completed our survey."

Now, who consisted of that group of 79 earth scientists?
"In our survey, the most specialized and knowledgeable respondents (with regard to climate change) are those who listed climate science as their area of expertise and who have also published more than 50% of their recent peer-reviewed papers on the subject of climate change (79 individuals in total)."

I wonder how many of them get research grants to study global warming?

Of course you would have also seen that it wasn't me nit picking numbers. Every statistic shown is what is in their report and are the numbers they used to generate the report, as they are shown in the report.

Now, show me where I'm wrong about the report, and how 75 scientists who have made names for themselves in writing about global warming consist of a consensus of climatologists.

 

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  posted on 3/15/2009 at 08:37 PM
quote:
quote:

So now you know the truth that 97% of the 79 climatologists who completed the on-line survey think humans cause global warming, not 97% of climatologists.


That's a fair sample. Show how it is not?
If the sample is random it should reflect the general population.

30 % response is a very good sample size.

Show an University (not polluter funded) survey with a bigger discrepancy then you have something..


What Jerry fails to mention is that looking all of 3146 earth scientists responding 80% agree with man made warming science.

He's nit picking with the numbers because, the scientific community disagrees with him.

And fails to mention the studies conclusion. That among those that understand the science of global warming,
those who do the research and publish the papers have generally no doubt about the science.

someday his head will come out of the sand

maybe















[Edited on 3/15/2009 by spacemonkey]


Ok so now i know the answer the next time you post that 97% garbage busted!

 

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  posted on 3/15/2009 at 08:39 PM
quote:

Now, show me where I'm wrong about the report, and how 75 scientists who have made names for themselves in writing about global warming consist of a consensus of climatologists.





97% of the 75 is a consensus. The 97% extends to all climatologist by the laws of sampling statistics.

This was already shown.

You are too obtuse to see it.


 

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  posted on 3/15/2009 at 08:44 PM
quote:
quote:
quote:

So now you know the truth that 97% of the 79 climatologists who completed the on-line survey think humans cause global warming, not 97% of climatologists.


That's a fair sample. Show how it is not?
If the sample is random it should reflect the general population.

30 % response is a very good sample size.

Show an University (not polluter funded) survey with a bigger discrepancy then you have something..


What Jerry fails to mention is that looking all of 3146 earth scientists responding 80% agree with man made warming science.

He's nit picking with the numbers because, the scientific community disagrees with him.

And fails to mention the studies conclusion. That among those that understand the science of global warming,
those who do the research and publish the papers have generally no doubt about the science.

someday his head will come out of the sand

maybe















[Edited on 3/15/2009 by spacemonkey]


Ok so now i know the answer the next time you post that 97% garbage busted!


wrong again Ryde

you can't just say BUSTED

show where these statistics are in error.




[Edited on 3/16/2009 by spacemonkey]

 

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  posted on 3/15/2009 at 09:00 PM
quote:
quote:

Now, show me where I'm wrong about the report, and how 75 scientists who have made names for themselves in writing about global warming consist of a consensus of climatologists.





97% of the 75 is a consensus. The 97% extends to all climatologist by the laws of sampling statistics.

This was already shown.

You are too obtuse to see it.





You can't even get the figures I give you right. It's 97% of the 77. That means that 75 out of 77 answered "yes" to question 2.

So, it's still quite obvious that you haven't read the final report from which your much loved 97% figure comes from.

So would you consider it a consensus of atmosphere, earth, and environment scientists when 3803 (all have peer-reviewed papers on the subject published) of them agree that the earth is warming because of cyclical trends, not by human intervention?

Would you care to read a summary of their peer-reviewed research, or do you wish to keep a closed mind on the subject?

 

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  posted on 3/15/2009 at 09:10 PM
quote:
quote:
quote:
quote:

So now you know the truth that 97% of the 79 climatologists who completed the on-line survey think humans cause global warming, not 97% of climatologists.


That's a fair sample. Show how it is not?
If the sample is random it should reflect the general population.

30 % response is a very good sample size.

Show an University (not polluter funded) survey with a bigger discrepancy then you have something..


What Jerry fails to mention is that looking all of 3146 earth scientists responding 80% agree with man made warming science.

He's nit picking with the numbers because, the scientific community disagrees with him.

And fails to mention the studies conclusion. That among those that understand the science of global warming,
those who do the research and publish the papers have generally no doubt about the science.

someday his head will come out of the sand

maybe















[Edited on 3/15/2009 by spacemonkey]


Ok so now i know the answer the next time you post that 97% garbage busted!


wrong again Ryde

you can't just say BUSTED

show where these statistics are in error.




[Edited on 3/16/2009 by spacemonkey]


Oh, the statistics are right, as far as the ones for those who completed the survey.
Do you believe that 75 out of all the climatologists in the world makes a good statistical base?

Should I go to Skid Row and ask 77 winos if we should allow the sale of booze 24/7 in the state of Georgia? What kind of statistic would come out of that? Can I then get a big media blitz with the headlines "99.9% of People On The Street Want All Day, Every Day Sales Of Alcohol"? Seems like you think that would be a good sampling.

 

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  posted on 3/15/2009 at 09:41 PM
quote:

So now you know the truth that 97% of the 79 climatologists who completed the on-line survey think humans cause global warming, not 97% of climatologists.


That's a fair sample. Show how it is not?
If the sample is random it should reflect the general population.

30 % response is a very good sample size.

Show an University (not polluter funded) survey with a bigger discrepancy then you have something..


What Jerry fails to mention is that looking all of 3146 earth scientists responding 80% agree with man made warming science.

He's nit picking with the numbers because, the scientific community disagrees with him.

And fails to mention the studies conclusion. That among those that understand the science of global warming,
those who do the research and publish the papers have generally no doubt about the science.

someday his head will come out of the sand

maybe

[Edited on 3/15/2009 by spacemonkey]


Ok so now i know the answer the next time you post that 97% garbage busted!


wrong again Ryde

you can't just say BUSTED

show where these statistics are in error.




[Edited on 3/16/2009 by spacemonkey]


Oh, the statistics are right, as far as the ones for those who completed the survey.
Do you believe that 75 out of all the climatologists in the world makes a good statistical base?

Should I go to Skid Row and ask 77 winos if we should allow the sale of booze 24/7 in the state of Georgia? What kind of statistic would come out of that? Can I then get a big media blitz with the headlines "99.9% of People On The Street Want All Day, Every Day Sales Of Alcohol"? Seems like you think that would be a good sampling.


Sorry, Jerry, but now you ae acting the fool. First, Wott's survey presents the most accurate data available. To refute it successfully, you have to show data that proves it wrong. You haven't done that. Second your little scenario about winos is pointless. Now, do you have any data to back up your claims about global warming? No? Then Wott presented verifiable data, you didn't. Right or wrong, you lose the debate. Your interpretation is no more valid than anyone elses. You believe something and try to twist the numbers to suit you, Ryde did the same. Now either you don't understand how a survey is done or you are being obtuse.

Basically, if you have no data to refute Wott's data, then there is nothing furthur to diiscuss.


Actually OTF, I'm using the data in the survey that John gets his figures from.
Why not go to the link and read the report, since it seems you have nothing better to do tonight.

As for the wino survey, yes, it has a direct correlation to the survey that John uses. Both surveys would reflect the views of people directly involved in the results of those surveys.

With a report of a high statistical number of climatologists (notice how no media reports give out that it's the percentage of those who answered a survey, or the number involved) showing they believe that human involvement causes global warming, more funding for research on climate change will definitely be coming.
With a media blitz of the same magnitude showing that "people on the street" (no need to tell anybody they're winos, right?) want 24/7 access to alcohol would give the winos a better chance of not running out of something to drink. Same difference, same statistical
manipulation.

Oh, also, go to:
http://www.wecnmagazine.com/2007issues/may/may07.html#7

Read what the man who many believe to be the inventor of the climatology science thinks about the current views on global warming.
Click on the light bulb next to "The Faithful Heretic"

 

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  posted on 3/15/2009 at 10:56 PM
Statistics don't mean doodleysquat. If one thinks Global Warming is a hoax they are in denial.

 

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  posted on 3/16/2009 at 06:09 AM
quote:
That's right!!!! We all know that Al Gore concocted this entire hoax to make millions on his book!!! Millions, I tell ya!!!! And hundreds of climatologists and scientists went along with it, even though they won't make any money on it, but they liked Al Gore's book!!! That's it!!!! It's all about $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$!!!!! Goddamn those nasty capitalistic whores!!!!!
/quote]

Shame on those scientists. I spoke to one on the phone yesterday and probably should have scolded him for his beliefs about global warming. Maybe i should sever ties with him eh? Nothing worse than a crooked scientist.

 

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  posted on 3/16/2009 at 08:45 AM
I don't I've ever seen anyone here go to such lengths in an attempt to prove someone wrong. Odd motivation.

 

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  posted on 3/16/2009 at 08:59 AM
I could care less what the monkey man believes as long as he says in his 97% posts that only 77 people were in the poll and not represent it as 97% of the worlds climologists.. that is all i disagree with ,the way he represented it.

 

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  posted on 3/16/2009 at 10:40 AM
The fundamental goal of a survey is to come up with the same results that would have been obtained had every single member of a population been interviewed. If the survey is conducted properly then the sample size doesn't really matter. The key is a fundamental principle called equal probability of selection, which states that if every member of a population has an equal probability of being selected in a sample, then that sample will be representative of the population. It's that straightforward.

 

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  posted on 3/16/2009 at 11:23 AM
quote:
Jerry said:
So would you consider it a consensus of atmosphere, earth, and environment scientists when 3803 (all have peer-reviewed papers on the subject published) of them agree that the earth is warming because of cyclical trends, not by human intervention?

Would you care to read a summary of their peer-reviewed research, or do you wish to keep a closed mind on the subject?


I would dearly love to read a summary of that study. Link please.

Oh, nevermind, I found it on my own. http://www.petitionproject.org/review_article.php

As you are likely aware Jerry, the Petition Project is dismissed out of hand by climevangelists as the incoherent rantings of global warming heretics. Deniers, as it were. Those 3803 earth sciences researchers don't trump the 75 who make up the 97.4% of Believers in your original post anymore than the current 32,000+ (and still growing) overall signatories to that petition count against the notion of "The Consensus (tm)." The Consensus (tm) is adhered to by Believers with no less irrational zealotry than any of the major religions of the world. This is no less an us-against-them fight than is Christians against Muslims, liberals against conservatives, gun-owners against gun-grabbers, Republicans against Democrats. In all these conflicts, including climate change, liberty is at stake. Individual liberty vs. collectivism. Even the individuals' right to come to his/her own innocuous decision as to what kind of light bulb he/she is allowed to buy is denied by the collective in this environment of religious-like hysteria.

Bottom line Brother Jerry, your stats, peer-reviewed summaries, even your own ability to scrutinize the available data and come to your own autonomous conclusions, don't mean nuthin'. YOU don't mean nuthin' because YOU'RE a Denier. The concept of individual liberty don't mean nuthin' if it's invoked to protect the liberties of Deniers. Don't believe me? Just try to buy an incandescent light bulb after 2014. Hell, just try to argue that you should retain your ability to do so and The Consensus (tm) will come down on you for your selfish audacity and complete hatred for the environment and Mother Earth her very self. (I predict right now that at least one member-in-good-standing of The Consensus ((tm) on this forum will come forth with similar admonishments for me having the temerity to suggest that their liberty-killing group-think is anything less than Holy.) Perhaps making a prediction will spare us Deniers a scolding this time lest The Consensus (tm) be exposed as the predictable blind devotion to doctrine that it is, but I doubt it.

Tom S.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 3/16/2009 at 12:11 PM
quote:
I could care less what the monkey man believes as long as he says in his 97% posts that only 77 people were in the poll and not represent it as 97% of the worlds climologists.. that is all i disagree with ,the way he represented it.


They are the same, unless you show how there is an error in the sampling.


 

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  posted on 3/16/2009 at 12:19 PM
I find it hard to believe that some people think we can pumps millions of tons of pollutants into the fragile atmosphere of this Planet without it having an adverse effect.

 

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  posted on 3/16/2009 at 12:22 PM
I find it hard to believe these morons think you have to talk to every climatologist to get the trends on how they see
the science.

Clueless

 

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  posted on 3/16/2009 at 12:29 PM
quote:
Just try to buy an incandescent light bulb after 2014.


I hope they find a way to make CFLs safer to cleanup/dispose of when broken before then.

 

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  posted on 3/16/2009 at 12:41 PM
quote:
quote:
Just try to buy an incandescent light bulb after 2014.


I hope they find a way to make CFLs safer to cleanup/dispose of when broken before then.


Just as long as the bastids put lead back in paint who cares about the rest...

 

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  posted on 3/16/2009 at 12:47 PM
quote:
quote:
quote:
Just try to buy an incandescent light bulb after 2014.


I hope they find a way to make CFLs safer to cleanup/dispose of when broken before then.


Just as long as the bastids put lead back in paint who cares about the rest...


and gas, Had to get rid of the 74 LTD because of all the knocking

 

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