Don't click or your IP will be banned


Hittin' The Web with the Allman Brothers Band Forum
You are not logged in

< Last Thread   Next Thread ><<  1    2    3    4  >>Ascending sortDescending sorting  
Author: Subject: President Trump has the U.S. Economy growing at the strongest rate in over 13 years

Peach Extraordinaire



Karma:
Posts: 4238
(4249 all sites)
Registered: 12/18/2004
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/28/2018 at 06:19 PM
quote:
quote:
It isn't the highest rate in 13 years, it is the highest in 13 qurters. Thanks Obama!

https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-chance-from-preceding-pe riod-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/


And, as the deficit rises, inflation will soon destroy even that. Thanks Trump, Ryan and McConnell!


A flat-out lie.

The Obama administration claimed a high (artificial) GDP rate for one quarter in 2014.
As usual the Obama administration falsified the data by adding in a made-up rate to include "intellectual property development" for which they were skewered but all the legitimate economists and Obama and his liars immediately stopped their false reporting.




You calling someone a liar is funny as nobody lies on here moethan you.

I didn't make up that chart that you didn't look at.

Try this one:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-gdp-growth-touted-as-historic-by-trump-is-t otally-standard/

President Trump on Friday touted the U.S. economy's 4.1 percent growth in the second quarter as "an economic turnaround of historic proportions." He also predicted the spurt will be sustained and even accelerate.

Yet few economists outside the administration agree with that bullish forecast. Here's a look at Mr. Trump claims, and the facts:

U.S. GDP growth hit 4.1 percent in the second quarter
Trump touts "amazing" economic growth figures
"We've accomplished an economic turnaround of historic proportions," Mr. Trump remarked Friday at the White House shortly after the Commerce Department released its GDP report.

In fact, Mr. Trump didn't inherit a fixer-upper economy.

The U.S. economy just entered its 10th year of growth, a recovery that began under President Barack Obama, who inherited the Great Recession. The data show that the falling unemployment rate and gains in home values reflect the duration of the recovery, rather than any major changes made since 2017 by the Trump administration.

While Mr. Trump praised the 4.1 percent annual growth rate in the second quarter, the economy exceeded that level four times during the Obama presidency: in 2009, 2011 and twice in 2014.

In purely numerical terms, a larger shift took place in the second quarter of 2014, when the economy went from contracting by 1 percent to growing at a rate of 5.1 percent.

gdp-2009-line.png
But quarterly figures are volatile, and strength in one quarter can be reversed in the next. President Obama never achieved the 3 percent annual growth that President Trump hopes to see, though he came close. The economy grew 2.9 percent in 2015.

The current economic expansion, which began in June 2009, is now the second-longest on record -- but it is also the weakest. The GDP revisions the Commerce Department announced Friday didn't change that narrative. Annual growth has averaged just 2.2 percent since mid-2009 through the end of last year, the same as previously reported.

"One of the biggest wins in the report, and it is, indeed a big one, is that the trade deficit ó very dear to my heart because we've been ripped off by the world ó has dropped," Mr. Trump said Friday.

Mr. Trump is correct that a lower trade deficit spurred growth in the April-June quarter, but the reason for that isn't necessarily positive.

The president has been floating plans to slap import taxes on hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign goods, which has led to retaliatory tariffs by foreign governments on U.S. goods.

This threat of an escalating trade war has led many foreign companies to stockpile U.S. goods before any tariffs hit. That caused a temporary boost in U.S. exports, helping to fuel economic growth.

But Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial, said the gains from rising U.S. exports in the second quarter will not be repeated.


"These numbers are very, very sustainable. It's not a one-time shot," Mr. Trump said Friday.

It's impossible to predict the future, but economists warn that the figures seen this quarter will not be easy to replicate, or even come near.

The economy faces two significant structural drags that could keep growth closer to 2 percent than 3 percent: An aging population, which means fewer people are working and more are retired, and weak productivity growth, which means that those who are working aren't increasing their output as quickly as in the past.

Both of those factors are largely beyond Mr. Trump's control.

The labor force could get a boost from higher participationóthat is, if more people who are currently on the sidelines re-enter the labor force. But enticing those people back into the workforce could require a combination of higher pay, better jobs or some other factor.

© 2018 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.


 

World Class Peach



Karma:
Posts: 5677
(5686 all sites)
Registered: 6/1/2009
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/28/2018 at 06:46 PM
^ CBS is corrupt liberal media.
Your post is rejected as BS. Did you notice CBS offered no sources for their opinion piece?

Try learning the actual facts son.
Maybe then you will not be just another a far-left loser.

Thanks to President Trump the U.S. economy is rocking and the lefties just can't handle it.

 

Universal Peach



Karma:
Posts: 6250
(6305 all sites)
Registered: 5/4/2005
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/28/2018 at 07:07 PM
quote:
^ CBS is corrupt liberal media.
Your post is rejected as BS. Did you notice CBS offered no sources for their opinion piece?

Try learning the actual facts son.
Maybe then you will not be just another a far-left loser.

Thanks to President Trump the U.S. economy is rocking and the lefties just can't handle it.



As has been discussed before, economic cycles run in vacuums (don't forget the economy was on an upswing the last few years of President Obama's 2nd term). Get back to me next year and if things are humming along, then I'll give President Trump his just due.

 

____________________
"It's all about Allman Brothers pride." T Thompson Greek Theater, Los Angeles 5/6/2005

 

Peach Pro



Karma:
Posts: 487
(487 all sites)
Registered: 11/8/2008
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/28/2018 at 07:23 PM
quote:
Somewhere along the way Russian Don must have skipped taking Economics 101 while at Wharton. He likes to brag about Wharton and his high level of intelligence. Maybe if he would have understood the principles of econ relative to tariffs, trade wars, and inflation, he would have been better prepared to make policies that didn't hurt the very people that put him in office.


Since he spent his 1st 2 years at Fordham in NYC, perhaps he didn't take Econ 101. He transferred & graduated from Wharton, but he never attended its prestigious MBA program.

 

Ultimate Peach



Karma:
Posts: 3554
(3560 all sites)
Registered: 10/5/2004
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/28/2018 at 08:07 PM
quote:
quote:
Somewhere along the way Russian Don must have skipped taking Economics 101 while at Wharton. He likes to brag about Wharton and his high level of intelligence. Maybe if he would have understood the principles of econ relative to tariffs, trade wars, and inflation, he would have been better prepared to make policies that didn't hurt the very people that put him in office.


Since he spent his 1st 2 years at Fordham in NYC, perhaps he didn't take Econ 101. He transferred & graduated from Wharton, but he never attended its prestigious MBA program.

That might explain the basics, but one would think that somewhere along the way he would have taken a Principle Of Econ Course. Of course he probably thought he knew more than the textbooks, dismisses history, and could take a lesson by listening to someone like real economist such as Robert Shiller (A Nobel Prize economist).

Then again, Trump has "the great Larry Kudlow" iin his stable as top economic advisor. Kudlow is a free trade advocate / free maket capatilist...so it begs the question of who Trump is listening to more than the mirror. With that said, Kudlow is not so great on his economic forecasts.

http://time.com/money/5197470/trump-pick-kudlow-predictions/

Look at the results so far on Trumps tariffs and our trading partners' retaliation. A good starting point are states Trump carried and now feeling the impact - North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. We can mention Harley Davidson and soybean farmers as directly impacted to the negative.

 

World Class Peach



Karma:
Posts: 5677
(5686 all sites)
Registered: 6/1/2009
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/28/2018 at 08:25 PM
quote:
quote:
quote:
Somewhere along the way Russian Don must have skipped taking Economics 101 while at Wharton. He likes to brag about Wharton and his high level of intelligence. Maybe if he would have understood the principles of econ relative to tariffs, trade wars, and inflation, he would have been better prepared to make policies that didn't hurt the very people that put him in office.


Since he spent his 1st 2 years at Fordham in NYC, perhaps he didn't take Econ 101. He transferred & graduated from Wharton, but he never attended its prestigious MBA program.

That might explain the basics, but one would think that somewhere along the way he would have taken a Principle Of Econ Course. Of course he probably thought he knew more than the textbooks, dismisses history, and could take a lesson by listening to someone like real economist such as Robert Shiller (A Nobel Prize economist).

Then again, Trump has "the great Larry Kudlow" iin his stable as top economic advisor. Kudlow is a free trade advocate / free maket capatilist...so it begs the question of who Trump is listening to more than the mirror. With that said, Kudlow is not so great on his economic forecasts.

http://time.com/money/5197470/trump-pick-kudlow-predictions/

Look at the results so far on Trumps tariffs and our trading partners' retaliation. A good starting point are states Trump carried and now feeling the impact - North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. We can mention Harley Davidson and soybean farmers as directly impacted to the negative.



The whole "Trump's Trade Wars" is corrupt liberal media crap.
You forgot to mention that the U.S. soybean farmers were dancing with joy in their fields when:

Trade war fears fizzle as Trump strikes deal with EU

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/jul/25/donald-trump-strikes-trade -deal-eu/


 

Peach Pro



Karma:
Posts: 487
(487 all sites)
Registered: 11/8/2008
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/28/2018 at 08:57 PM
quote:
That might explain the basics, but one would think that somewhere along the way he would have taken a Principle Of Econ Course. Of course he probably thought he knew more than the textbooks, dismisses history, and could take a lesson by listening to someone like real economist such as Robert Shiller (A Nobel Prize economist).

Then again, Trump has "the great Larry Kudlow" iin his stable as top economic advisor. Kudlow is a free trade advocate / free maket capatilist...so it begs the question of who Trump is listening to more than the mirror. With that said, Kudlow is not so great on his economic forecasts.

http://time.com/money/5197470/trump-pick-kudlow-predictions/

Look at the results so far on Trumps tariffs and our trading partners' retaliation. A good starting point are states Trump carried and now feeling the impact - North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. We can mention Harley Davidson and soybean farmers as directly impacted to the negative.


Gosh, I haven't thought about Reaganomics since...well, the 1980s when Trump, having amassed so much debt with zero equity was preparing for his 1st bankruptcy. The money article doesn't go back far enough to note all of Kudlow's prediction misses, but it did note that Kudlow had an admirable TV presence. That's good enough for the man who only goes by what he sees in the mirror.

 

Peach Extraordinaire



Karma:
Posts: 4238
(4249 all sites)
Registered: 12/18/2004
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/28/2018 at 09:53 PM
quote:
^ CBS is corrupt liberal media.
Your post is rejected as BS. Did you notice CBS offered no sources for their opinion piece?

Try learning the actual facts son.
Maybe then you will not be just another a far-left loser.

Thanks to President Trump the U.S. economy is rocking and the lefties just can't handle it.



Nic try, but not liking a source does not invalidate it. This is especially true as you started this thread with an unsourced article.

Try again.

 

Peach Extraordinaire



Karma:
Posts: 4314
(4309 all sites)
Registered: 12/27/2003
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/28/2018 at 11:24 PM
Cool thread about Americans accepting treason in exchange for a good economy.
 

Maximum Peach



Karma:
Posts: 9088
(9113 all sites)
Registered: 4/27/2003
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/29/2018 at 06:44 AM
It's a good figure, but a consensus of financial people I have heard have been expecting a big GDP 2nd quarter for months. Revisions can be key as well. 4th qrt '17 was originally reported as 2.6, then revised to 2.5 before ultimately being revised to 2.9 on the 4th and final revision. Q1 '18 was expected to be weak as it often is (revised down to 2%) and 2nd qrt was expected to be strong, which at 4.1% is strong. It will be interesting to see where the revisions on it go. Revisions do not get the headlines the initial release gets. Analysts were expecting anywhere from 3.5-5.1% Q2.

As many have said here, and some of the quoted articles state, a good quarterly number here or there isn't what is needed. We need sustained 3% growth to increase government revenue in the face of higher debt and deficit spending. Obviously it is very debatable (and political) if that kind of annual figure is attainable and sustainable.

Did a boost in higher soybean exports occur and move GDP higher? I can see that. Year-to-date soybean exports are quite a bit higher 2018 compared to 2017. While some have said the reason for this is distributors stocked up to beat the China tariff, others have explained that the drop in the commodity price incentivized other nations to increase their purchases. China's soybean demand is unmatched for sure, but there are other nations the US can sell soybeans to and those markets could be expanded. It is just a matter of what the price for the crop is, with China's retaliatory tariff on US imports, their encouragement to spur more domestic Chinese growth along with increasing purchases from other soy producing countries who will likely be increasing their own output to meet new higher demand all will continue to have negative impact on the commodity price.

Here is an idea...China is accused of trans-shipping steel and aluminum into the US market. This is because there are already 20+ tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum products coming into the US market so China ships it's product to a host of countries so it can then be imported in the US via that country and therefore tariff free. This is where the latest steel and aluminum tariff thing comes from. Well, US exporters of soybeans can do the same thing really to enter the Chinese market tariff free. I would have to think these kind of shenanigans have been going on in global trade forever. Next thing you know China will be putting tariffs on South Korean soybeans because they are suspected of trans-shipping US exports.

The US government has programs for US workers displaced by trade related job losses, so in that vein it could be entirely benign that assistance extended to farmers hurt by a trade issue. To some everything has to be politically motivated I suppose. Maybe it is and maybe it isn't. But offering aid to individuals negatively effected by US trade policy is standard practice.

Perhaps the soy crop and related export in this country has grown too large and both small time farmers and corporate giants have become too dependent on it. The growth in the US soy crop has grown enormously in the last 30 years. There is something to be said for diversification in all walks of life, it applies to farming as well. You have swings in commodity prices, disease, years of drought and things that negatively effect one ag product or another. When all your eggs are in one basket you can get burned. This could lead to more of a shift towards wheat, cotton, rice, sorghum, oats, etc. Or even more corn or other products for biofuels. Plus I see plenty of fruits and vegetables at my grocery store that are coming from Central America and Mexico that can be grown here. There is opportunity for farmers to rely less upon soybean exports, perhaps some became too dependent on them in the first place.


[Edited on 7/29/2018 by nebish]

 

Peach Master



Karma:
Posts: 729
(733 all sites)
Registered: 8/7/2002
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/29/2018 at 08:46 AM
So is the deficit. Tax cuts and uncontrolled spending wonít work to sustain growth

POTUS is already only concerned about being re-elected Scary to think how out of control he could be during a second term.

[Edited on 7/29/2018 by CB]

 

____________________
Disclaimer:

The thoughts in this post are merely or nearly the thoughts or lack there of, of the author. He fully accepts or denies responsibility for those thoughts or lack there of. He sincerely hopes that you take them seriously or don't.

 

World Class Peach



Karma:
Posts: 5677
(5686 all sites)
Registered: 6/1/2009
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/29/2018 at 03:39 PM
Now suddenly the lefties talking about deficit and or debt.

Not a peep from them while Obama racked up more national debt than all previous 43 presidents combined.

Itís all good.

President Trumpís economic policies have the U.S. economy running better than it has in decades and his approval ratings continue to rise.

Anyone notice that the Democrats, with the mid-term elections about 3 months away never talk about the economy, jobs or anything else that actually matters to the American people?




 

Ultimate Peach



Karma:
Posts: 3834
(3832 all sites)
Registered: 8/26/2006
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/29/2018 at 06:52 PM
quote:
Now suddenly the lefties talking about deficit and or debt.

Not a peep from them while Obama racked up more national debt than all previous 43 presidents combined.

Itís all good.

President Trumpís economic policies have the U.S. economy running better than it has in decades and his approval ratings continue to rise.

Anyone notice that the Democrats, with the mid-term elections about 3 months away never talk about the economy, jobs or anything else that actually matters to the American people?






First of all, Obama didn't add more debt than all previous presidents combined. However, a ton of debt was accumulated mostly due to the terrible economy at the beginning of his term as the US was recovering from the great recession. However, the deficit decreased year after year adter that except his last year. Now that Trump is in office with a "good economy," the deficit should be going down and the US should work on paying off the debt - but instead the deficit is exploding again. The deficit in 2017 was 3.5% of GDP. In 2022 and beyond the CBO estimates at 5.4% of GDP, and that assumes a healthy economy. This is a direct result of Trump's policies. I know Trump is used to taking out big loans on his businesses and not paying them back, but that's not how government works.

 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 68266
(68627 all sites)
Registered: 11/28/2001
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/29/2018 at 09:49 PM
quote:
Now suddenly the lefties talking about deficit and or debt.





The funny part is how it doesn't seem to matter anymore to the righties ....

 

Peach Extraordinaire



Karma:
Posts: 4314
(4309 all sites)
Registered: 12/27/2003
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/30/2018 at 09:26 AM
quote:
Not a peep from them while Obama racked up more national debt than all previous 43 presidents combined.


Translation: Iím ashamed that a black man can make me look like a homeless person in comparison.

quote:
President Trumpís economic policies have the U.S. economy running better than it has in decades and his approval ratings continue to rise.


But your daddy still wonít pat you on the back.

quote:
Anyone notice that the Democrats, with the mid-term elections about 3 months away never talk about the economy, jobs or anything else that actually matters to the American people?


No. Get over it snowflake.

[Edited on 7/30/2018 by BoytonBrother]

 

Peach Pro



Karma:
Posts: 226
(226 all sites)
Registered: 4/15/2016
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/30/2018 at 10:19 AM
Personally, I cannot complain, my stocks are rocking and rolling and I loved my tax cut at the beginning of the year. Also, I live in a divided house, my wife is not a Trump fan at all, but yet she will still admit that her earnings and labor demand has never been greater than ever.

And, lots of people still tend to blame politics for what was ultimately a "bad decision" they made at one time.
Let's call a spade a spade.
If your job/salary is not where you want it to be, then leave. If you say you can't leave because of "yada, yada, excuse" then its probably the result of a decision you have made.

 

Peach Extraordinaire



Karma:
Posts: 4314
(4309 all sites)
Registered: 12/27/2003
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/30/2018 at 10:51 AM
quote:
Personally, I cannot complain, my stocks are rocking and rolling and I loved my tax cut at the beginning of the year. Also, I live in a divided house, my wife is not a Trump fan at all, but yet she will still admit that her earnings and labor demand has never been greater than ever.


Sounds like you are crediting Trump for your rocking stocks, tax cuts, and your wifeís earnings and labor demand.

quote:
And, lots of people still tend to blame politics for what was ultimately a "bad decision" they made at one time.
Let's call a spade a spade.
If your job/salary is not where you want it to be, then leave. If you say you can't leave because of "yada, yada, excuse" then its probably the result of a decision you have made.


Sounds like you are crediting individuals for their financial situation, in which Iíd agree. Why are your financial improvements because of Trump, but a poor salary is because of a bad personal decision? Is it personal accountability or not?

 

Maximum Peach



Karma:
Posts: 9088
(9113 all sites)
Registered: 4/27/2003
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/30/2018 at 10:55 AM
I do care about the national debt and annual spending deficits. On one hand it just seems so large that it will be impossible to pay down, but on the other hand it doesn't make sense to continue adding to it each and every year.

I am very supportive of the corporate tax reform that was passed, and based on comments at the time, had the bill solely focused on that and that alone more than a few Democrats would've supported it as well.

I did not believe that the timing was right for personal tax cuts. As a rule I always believe that people should keep more of what they earn, but when looked at tax cuts as a tool in the government tool box I would've saved that for another day and time. Simply, the economy in my opinion did not need it then or now. And I also disagree with eliminating SALT deductions. Income paid out in obligated state and local taxes should be deductible in my opinion. Plus it feels politically targeted and I do not like that either.

So corporate tax reform, yes. Individual tax cuts this go around, no.

Then you have the government spending side of the equation. I would've rather they kept the sequester cuts than the spending package they passed earlier this year. Cuts across the board, including defense, should be in order. And if we don't want to or can't cut social programs, I would like to see small incremental tax increases for those programs. If your money was taken from you for these programs you deserve benefits of those programs. If we can't pay the benefit then we have to raise the amount we are taking from people to sustain it.

But it is just easier to borrow more money from foreign countries and pretend like nothing bad will ever happen for continuing to do so. That is wrong and should not be how our government functions.

 

Maximum Peach



Karma:
Posts: 9088
(9113 all sites)
Registered: 4/27/2003
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/30/2018 at 11:09 AM
I wanted to touch on the wage issue as well.

It is hard for anyone to say what IPowrie or whomever should do with their job situation. That is solely up to them for reasons that are or are not important to them. If somebody has accumulated nice paid vacation time, or is vested in some kind of retirement program or whatever it is, simply getting more hourly pay or annual salary may not offset losing some other important benefits that time with one employer has produced.

Just from some people in my life, a good friend of mine is a welder. He knows if he left his current job he could make more money. But he has a very good relationship with his boss in a good work environment and that is worth something to him compared to the unknown of another job. Different people may make different decisions.

Another friend of mine in the insurance industry thought he was making good money at his old job until the work load just became unbearable (employer wasn't replaced departed workers or hiring new so just kept putting more and more work on remaining employees). He left for another insurance company and is making better money and hasn't encountered the same problems he had before.

One of my best friends manages a distribution warehouse where the company does not pay good entry level wages and it is a revolving door of people in and out as people continually leave for better pay in other nearby warehouses. He would like to offer more 1) to keep workers and 2) to attract better workers. As it is the people they get at the wage they are paying do not have the greatest work ethic. But it is hard sometimes to get large companies to realize things like that and authorize higher wages.

People can get pay increases, but they likely have to leave their current job to do so. Many employers do not appreciate the current workers they have and do not reward them enough with pay or benefit increases, but when those workers they may be taking for granted leave, they often have to offer more pay to get the same caliber employee they just lost. I guess it is kind of like your bank that offers new customers great rates, but the existing customers can't get those promo deals without bringing new money to the bank.

Maybe it is just kind of a game we all play, life, us, them, work, free time, income and fitting it all into our own equation to produce whatever decision it is we make. It does seem that in most corners of the economy this is a great time to put out the feelers and see if something better can be had, often it can right now. If that is right for any given person is up to them.

 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 19018
(19078 all sites)
Registered: 2/9/2006
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/30/2018 at 11:23 AM
quote:
Iím ashamed that a black man can make me look like a homeless person in comparison.


What does the color of the President's skin have to do with it?

 

____________________

 

Peach Extraordinaire



Karma:
Posts: 4314
(4309 all sites)
Registered: 12/27/2003
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/30/2018 at 11:40 AM
quote:
What does the color of the President's skin have to do with it?


I believe itís the root of why the right hates him.

 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 19018
(19078 all sites)
Registered: 2/9/2006
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/30/2018 at 12:53 PM
quote:
quote:
What does the color of the President's skin have to do with it?


I believe itís the root of why the right hates him.


Pathetic

 

____________________

 

Peach Extraordinaire



Karma:
Posts: 4314
(4309 all sites)
Registered: 12/27/2003
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/30/2018 at 01:05 PM
quote:
Pathetic


quote:
I will exchange ideas and thought with anyone at anytime, until it becomes argumentative. One should be able to share a thought and hear an opposing view. If you disagree, you should be able to depart, knowing you've made the attempt. Seeing and hearing frustration because you will not continue to engage when there is no possibility in your mind of finding common ground is the red flag that tells me the attempt at conversation has come to an end. It's OK to just, walk away.


LOL, ok! You sound like one conflicted dude.

ďLiberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views.Ē

- William F. Buckley

 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 68266
(68627 all sites)
Registered: 11/28/2001
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/30/2018 at 01:20 PM
Article today from Terry Savage. Her previous article was about personal debt rising to over $1 trillion in the US. At my financial adviser's last meeting they said inflation was up 2.8% (including gas and food). They said they thought the fed was raising rates even though the numbers don't support it, because if we go into a recession they won't have any tools available to them if the rates are already low.


The economy has always reminded me of one of those squishy toys that children so enjoy. If you squeeze the middle, the ends get distorted. If you squeeze one end, the other end bulges and changes shape. Same thing with the economy: If you change trade policy or interest rates or tax rates, the results are felt far from the part you squeezed.

Thatís exactly whatís happening now. And as a result youíre going to hear more about subjects that havenít been in the economic headlines for at least a decade, like inflation, rising prices and the value of the dollar. Itís time to get prepared.

Inflation on its way

The simplest definition of inflation is rising prices ó although economists will tell you itís all about money creation. We are definitely starting to see rising prices as the result of tariffs. When we put taxes on imports ó whether they come from China or any other part of the world ó those taxes are passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

Manufacturers that import everything from computer parts to tires to washing machines will try to hold prices steady so consumers arenít turned off. But in the end they will raise prices just to stay in business. Whether itís raw materials (think fresh vegetables from Mexico) or telephone handsets, prices will move higher.

And as the higher prices deter consumer buying, the slowdown will be felt by retailers and manufacturers alike. Instead of saving jobs, the tariffs will cost jobs. But it will take a while for the effects to be felt.

In the end, inflation is a monetary issue. Because if you fear that prices will be higher in the future, it means that your dollar will buy less. So workers will demand higher wages to pay for the increased cost of living. And higher wages mean more money chasing after things to buy, pushing prices even higher.

In the end, no one is better off with inflation. Just ask Venezuela, which is suffering with a 46,000 percent ó yes forty-six thousand! ó inflation rate this month. There are no basic supplies of food and water available at any price for worthless Venezuelan currency. And Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, so the country should be wealthy. But it canít pay workers to keep its refineries operating.

Higher interest rates follow

Future inflation expectations inevitably drive interest rates higher. Itís not just the Fed announcing small rate hikes that drives rates. Itís the marketplace where lenders of dollars, fearing that inflation will result in less buying power for the dollar, will demand higher interest rates to compensate.

Politicians can blame the Fed for their small increases. But once the global marketplace decides that the United States dollar is losing value because of inflation, there will be no way to stop rates from rising. After all, we have so much debt ó more than $20 trillion ó that we must keep borrowing, and paying the price in higher interest rates.

On a personal basis, debt will become a huge burden as monthly payments rise. Think of your credit card bills and your adjustable rate mortgage or home equity loan.

Downside of a strong dollar

But there is another negative aspect of higher interest rates. If U.S. rates move higher than those in other countries, our currency will become more attractive and rise in value against other countries. This ďstrongĒ dollar makes our exports more expensive because foreign buyers will have to scrape together more Euros, for example, to buy one dollarís worth of our manufactured goods. As a result, sales of U.S. products are likely to drop, resulting in layoffs at our factories. Obviously, that was not the intended result when tariffs were imposed.

All these impacts, and we havenít even mentioned retaliatory tariffs. They pose the potential to cost jobs everywhere from the farm belt to manufacturing to technology to retailing. The tariffs could be the biggest ďsquishĒ of all!

Thatís the thing with economics. Our economy and the global economy are indeed inter-connected, like a giant squishy toy ó with bulges and odd results taking place far from the original squeeze. And thatís The Savage Truth.


https://www.terrysavage.com/squishing-the-economy/

 

Peach Pro



Karma:
Posts: 226
(226 all sites)
Registered: 4/15/2016
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/30/2018 at 01:21 PM
quote:
quote:
Personally, I cannot complain, my stocks are rocking and rolling and I loved my tax cut at the beginning of the year. Also, I live in a divided house, my wife is not a Trump fan at all, but yet she will still admit that her earnings and labor demand has never been greater than ever.


Sounds like you are crediting Trump for your rocking stocks, tax cuts, and your wifeís earnings and labor demand.

quote:
And, lots of people still tend to blame politics for what was ultimately a "bad decision" they made at one time.
Let's call a spade a spade.
If your job/salary is not where you want it to be, then leave. If you say you can't leave because of "yada, yada, excuse" then its probably the result of a decision you have made.


Sounds like you are crediting individuals for their financial situation, in which Iíd agree. Why are your financial improvements because of Trump, but a poor salary is because of a bad personal decision? Is it personal accountability or not?



My financial improvements this year are due to an external source (Trump/economic policy), not a result of my personal decisions.

--As tax rate drops, my net income goes up. <- tax rate decrease is NOT a result of my action or personal decision, it's a result of policy.

--As stocks continue to go up, my portfolio "income" increases <- the increase is NOT a result of my action or personal decision, it's a result of economic condition.

--As household income improves throughout the economy, my wife (a realtor) has greater labor demand which leads to greater potential earnings <- again not the result of an action or personal decision by my wife, this is a result of economic condition

Now, regarding the personal decision aspect leading to "undesirable" salaries.
You choose how much time to invest in your education, you choose how much time to invest in your career, you can't go through life waiting to get lucky or hit your "big break". If you can't that desirable job, then you didn't do what you needed to do to earn that job.

I guess in summary, work hard and plan long term, don't blow through school/life and expect to be handed a 6 figure salary, you didn't earn it. The harder you work, the luckier you get.

disclaimer; All IMHO, not here to argue with you cats, just expressing opinion.



[Edited on 7/30/2018 by anthonyspare]

 
<<  1    2    3    4  >>  


Powered by XForum 1.81.1 by Trollix Software

Privacy | Terms of Service | Report Infringement | Personal Data Management | Contact Us
The ALLMAN BROTHERS BAND name, The ALLMAN BROTHERS name, likenesses, logos, mushroom design and peach truck are all registered trademarks of THE ABB MERCHANDISING CO., INC. whose rights are specifically reserved. Any artwork, visual, or audio representations used on this web site CONTAINING ANY REGISTERED TRADEMARKS are under license from The ABB MERCHANDISING CO., INC. A REVOCABLE, GRATIS LICENSE IS GRANTED TO ALL REGISTERED PEACH CORP MEMBERS FOR The DOWNLOADING OF ONE COPY FOR PERSONAL USE ONLY. ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION OF THE TRADEMARKS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROHIBITED AND ARE SPECIFICALLY RESERVED BY THE ABB MERCHANDISING CO.,INC.
site by Hittin' the Web Group with www.experiencewasabi3d.com