Don't click or your IP will be banned


Hittin' The Web with the Allman Brothers Band Forum
You are not logged in

< Last Thread   Next Thread >Ascending sortDescending sorting  
Author: Subject: Harley-Davidson to move production overseas to avoid EU retaliatory tariffs

Ultimate Peach





Posts: 3886
(3884 all sites)
Registered: 8/26/2006
Status: Offline

  posted on 6/25/2018 at 01:09 PM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-harley-davidson-tariffs/harley-davidson- to-move-some-production-out-of-u-s-to-avoid-eu-tariffs-idUSKBN1JL185

This is what happens when you are losing a trade war. Their materials price goes up due to increased steel and aluminum tariffs, and the product price in Europe goes up 25% due to retaliatory tariffs. The result, jobs will be lost in their Wisconsin plant and shipped overseas.

 
Replies:

Maximum Peach



Karma:
Posts: 9133
(9158 all sites)
Registered: 4/27/2003
Status: Offline

  posted on 6/25/2018 at 03:35 PM
On the contrary, this is the good and intended result for the country implementing the tariff on imported goods. This is not an example of tariff failures, it is proof that more are needed because more companies will react accordingly to build products here just as Harley has done in reaction to the EU tariff.

Imagine if the US loses some production of Harley Davidson motorcycles, but if we gain more production of motorcycles, snowmobiles, atvs, wave runners and the like from Yamaha, Suzuki, Kawasaki, Honda, Ski-Doo, etc. That is what broader tariffs could deliver as those manufacturers choose to build their products here to evade the trade barrier. So while Harley downsizes other opportunities will be created for those displaced workers.

The potential failure of this policy isn’t in the theory, it may come in the execution. The Administration has not created, worked and implemented a clear and proper plan to net the goals in which they wish to achieve. In my estimation, that should be the only reasonable objection, especially from the Democrat law makers who saw many blue collar voters switch parties because of their repeated failures to live up to their promises on trade through Clinton and Obama. These are voters that were never drawn to Hillary, but found what they were looking for in Sanders and Trump.

You can't help everyone at once. You can't fix decades of damage at once. The point is what is the proper policy and what will yield the best benefit. I do not believe that having our domestic corporations exploit foreign labor markets to send goods to our market is the right policy. And I do not believe that having foreign corporations benefiting from foreign labor and cheaper costs to put goods into this market is the right policy. So some workers at Harley may lose their jobs, but the goal would be for those workers to be reabsorbed back into the manufacturing sector as other businesses locate facilities here due to trade policy tilting making things here instead of making things there more in their financial interest.

Regarding the article, stating Harley’s decision to build a Thailand plant following the TPP withdrawal, I should remind everyone that Harley has plants in India and Brazil as well that predate any Trump-related or trade-tariff discussions.

Companies will look to locate their production where they can maximize return on investment and profits while keeping overhead costs in check. These are natural decisions that companies have made for decades independent of trade threats. Trade barriers can effect these decisions towards the national interest. These countries are not retaliating against US imports just for the good PR of it or to give Trump the finger. They are doing so because absence of it they stand to lose, just as this country has lost through many administrations.

The attempt here is to reverse the damage that has been done with US trade policy for 40 years. We seem to forget all the stories of job losses in the 80s and the 90s and 00s as companies took advantage of foreign labor markets to the benefit of those corporations and foreign countries and to the detriment of our nation.

Sure, in a world that erects trade barriers, there will be job losses for some workers atleast temporarily – that is natural, that is expected. However, what also comes, with properly crafted policy, is the opportunity for job creation and domestic growth outweighing the losses.

All I can hope, and so should you, is that this administration can get the implementation right. You can't make economic policy by tweet. And you can't do it soley without Congress. And even if you could do it strictly on a partisan basis, it would never happen.

Trump may not be the right President to get this done. But it is a start and a change in direction this country has needed for many many years. Perhaps the next election can field some candidates more skilled in politics and practice than just appealing to ideas. We've seen what traditional Democrats and Republicans do on this issue and that is what got us in this mess. Somebody needs to get us out of it. The tariff in and of itself is not wrong.

 

World Class Peach



Karma:
Posts: 5326
(5325 all sites)
Registered: 9/9/2011
Status: Offline

  posted on 6/25/2018 at 04:56 PM
interesting take. do you think this is where Trump is coming from? getting companies to move here to "beat" the tariffs? or maybe wilber ross? he talked to congress today, they beat him up pretty good over the pre-planning of the potential outcome of the tariffs.

 

____________________
Flies all green 'n buzzin' in his dungeon of despair
Who are all those people that he's locked away up there
Are they crazy?,
Are they sainted?
Are they zeros someone painted?,
It has never been explained since at first it was created

 

Ultimate Peach



Karma:
Posts: 3886
(3884 all sites)
Registered: 8/26/2006
Status: Offline

  posted on 6/25/2018 at 05:21 PM
Nebish - I have to disagree. When US jobs go oversees, you're not getting them back. For every tariff the US imposes, the recipient country is going to respond with an equal tariff. I'm not going to say that nobody wins a trade war, but what you are doing is have the government pick the winners and losers. For every winner, you will have a loser. For every extra job in steel manufacturing, you are likely to have greater losses in auto, manufacturing, and general construction. It seems like this "trade war" was not thought out well.
 

Maximum Peach



Karma:
Posts: 9133
(9158 all sites)
Registered: 4/27/2003
Status: Offline

  posted on 6/25/2018 at 06:15 PM
quote:
interesting take. do you think this is where Trump is coming from? getting companies to move here to "beat" the tariffs? or maybe wilber ross? he talked to congress today, they beat him up pretty good over the pre-planning of the potential outcome of the tariffs.


Hard to know what Trump is thinking at any given moment, but yes it is very possible this could be his take in general. I say that because he is never shy to take credit for a company moving something here or building a new plant here. Whether his policies were responsible or not, he certainly acts like they were, so this is a plausible reason behind his tariff talk.

Honestly, this may not be his deep down reasoning, again hard to speculate with him. It could very well be for future negotiating tactic which he seems found of. Create a new variable that didn't exist prior and then use that as a potential concession when negotiating to try and get something else.

I will have to read up on the Q&A with Wilbur today. Among a few handful of cabinet appointees I actually like, he is one of them.

 

Maximum Peach



Karma:
Posts: 9133
(9158 all sites)
Registered: 4/27/2003
Status: Offline

  posted on 6/25/2018 at 06:40 PM
quote:
Nebish - I have to disagree. When US jobs go oversees, you're not getting them back. For every tariff the US imposes, the recipient country is going to respond with an equal tariff. I'm not going to say that nobody wins a trade war, but what you are doing is have the government pick the winners and losers. For every winner, you will have a loser. For every extra job in steel manufacturing, you are likely to have greater losses in auto, manufacturing, and general construction. It seems like this "trade war" was not thought out well.


It is fine to have your strong beliefs. Free trade has been ingrained for so long and so deeply that anything contrary to it is met with objections like somebody thinks the earth is flat or something. In a world where the vast majority are calling for no trade barriers, people like myself have an uphill battle stating our case for another way.

I live in an area impacted particularly hard by offshoring and trade agreements that favored corporations and foreign nations over US workers. So I have seen and live among the effects that can have on a city, a community, safety forces, property values, local schools and everything else you can imagine.

Years ago before any of this mattered to me, I was a merchandising manager for a decent sized mail order company. Our company had invested in tooling for and designed this certain product that was very popular. After many years of success, a supplier we dealt with on a lot of other items knocked it off overseas unsolicited (no patent) and then gave us a sample and price quote significantly lower than our current. He also informed us that he would be sending samples to our competitors (who currently were not selling the item). So we faced the realization that not only were we going to lose sales to our competition, but we would also be at a margin disadvantage assuming we would have to lower our retail price to meet what they would likely do on their retail price. After much deliberation we decided to switch to the imported knock-off to maintain competitive and keep good margin even if sales dropped off. It is the kind of decision that was the right one for the business given the circumstances, but it ate at me. To the point that I am still talking about it almost 20 years later. I had to make the phone call to our local company and tell them we would no longer be buying it from them. I hated it. In a way, I didn't know it then, but that event played a significant role what became an obsession on buying and promoting made in USA items in my own life.

The trade war may not have been thought out well, on this I may agree, although everything is fluid so we don't know ultimately what effects good bad or indifferent it could have. I do fear it is currently on too small of a scale to have the overall impact I hope for. This is failure from the administration.

Early on before things got as toxic as they are now (mostly due to Trump's own words and actions and partially for political reasons by the Democrats), early on there should've been opportunities to pull plenty of Democrats towards the administration on this issue, rust belt state Democrats have run on some of the same things. Trump can not do everything he wants on trade without Congress and in the final analysis, I think it really takes an overhaul on trade that exceeds executive or agency authority alone.

We will see. I will continue to stand up for change on trade as I always have here.

 

Maximum Peach



Karma:
Posts: 9133
(9158 all sites)
Registered: 4/27/2003
Status: Offline

  posted on 6/26/2018 at 07:09 AM
The way a tariff increases costs on materials or imported goods, it is the same way other government implementations effect operating costs. Maybe you want greener energy mandates, which makes energy costs higher, businesses complain and have to absorb or pass on the increase. Maybe you want better labor and benefit compensations by our businesses. They complain and have to absorb and pass on the increases. Maybe you want more regulatory oversight and safety standards. They complain and have to absorb and pass on the increased costs associated with such.

It simply boils down to if you believe the objective is a worthy goal and the related increases in costs and prices is just.

 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 68333
(68694 all sites)
Registered: 11/28/2001
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/12/2018 at 03:25 PM
Went in for a meeting with my financial adviser yesterday. He does a market update every few months. He thinks we are not in a recession yet, but we are starting to head that way. He said nobody can predict when, but the indicators are not there yet but could be trending toward one in 2020. The whole "pending" trade war is a wildcard. He gave us a couple of quotes from a Milton Friedman speech from many years ago that pertains to the tariff issues being caused by Trump, and told us to watch the speech.

The part about tariffs starts at about 20:40 into the speech.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJCeoFxrDn0

Friedman believed that a trade deficit (more imports than exports) is a good thing, especially for a consumer economy, which we are.

 

Maximum Peach



Karma:
Posts: 9612
(9611 all sites)
Registered: 8/16/2005
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/12/2018 at 03:41 PM
Trump tariffs will cost consumers $$$, lead to job losses, and eventually a bad recession. count on it. he's making America great................. for himself, his family, and wealthy friends.
 

A Peach Supreme



Karma:
Posts: 2915
(2914 all sites)
Registered: 10/5/2005
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/12/2018 at 07:21 PM
Democrats here so badly want a recession to happen they fail to realize we would be a lot closer to a market crash and high energy prices if Owebamas pick got elected. If anything Trump has inflated a flaccid economy left by democrats.

[Edited on 7/13/2018 by OriginalGoober]

 

____________________

 

Ultimate Peach



Karma:
Posts: 3626
(3632 all sites)
Registered: 10/5/2004
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/12/2018 at 08:44 PM
quote:
Democrats here so badly want a recession to happen they fail to realize we would be a lot closer to a market crash and high energy prices if Owebamas pick got elected. If anything Trump has inflated a flaccid economy left by democrats.

[Edited on 7/13/2018 by OriginalGoober]


Maybe you can supply facts to support your made up and ridiculous theories? We'll wait on that.

Possibly you can start with the price comparison and explanation of gas prices today vs same time last year under Emperor Trump? Then can you explain how that folds into your claim of high energy prices of a candidate that never got elected?

 

Maximum Peach



Karma:
Posts: 9133
(9158 all sites)
Registered: 4/27/2003
Status: Offline

  posted on 7/12/2018 at 09:31 PM
Pops is just sure something Trump has or will do must certainly lead to recession. First it was the Trump tax cuts, then it was inflation, now it is tariffs.

Periods of expansion and recession come and go. We are currently in the second longest period of economic growth ever. If Sang's advisor is correct, and I have heard others say 2020 also (which is probably just their safe guess, not too soon, not too far away to really get people to make drastic changes one way or the other for reasons that may or may not materialize)...if this thing reaches July 2019 we will be break the record for longest uninterrupted period of expansion in US history. That will be a damn good run, 10 years. Now 2009 was rock bottom and most of the period of growth will go towards crediting Obama and maybe more of the accelerated growth will go towards crediting Trump. At some point it has to end. There are cycles, we don't grow forever and we don't shrink forever. Many indicators are still very favorable for continued growth.

As for tariffs, if there was ever a time to try and change course on trade, now is the perfect time. I believe it is the right thing to do. Milton Friedman, Adam Smith, whoever can disagree. Abstract theory in a world that only consists of markets, not countries, doesn't acknowledge that we have nations and labor can not move from one nation to another. The example of outsourcing, how a doctor should focus his time and effort where he is most efficient and hire somebody to be a receptionist and for record keeping. But when a corporation does this, be more efficient, you know, seek greater return on their capital, they often destroy jobs here and create them there. Do all consumers win? Not if those consumers have their jobs sent abroad in the name of free trade.

In Sang's video link Friedman says "the appropriate national objective is to have the fewest possible jobs". This is how economists think in the abstract, in theory. Reality shows how flawed that is. We need as many jobs as possible, in fact more jobs than workers to fill them because this is what creates the upward growth of compensation. When there are more jobs than there are people to fill them the employers must do more to attract the people necessary to run their operations. And that is what benefits the most people, the average workers, rather than the ones making all the profits for the corporations. Profits are fine, they are great. CEOs getting rich is fine. There are often really smart and innovative people that have positively contributed for their large paychecks. But we all know it is the 9-5 guy or gal that really makes those companies go because without them, the company is nothing. And creating a system where more of those people can earn more and keep more is what I am about - it is the exact opposite of what a global free trading economy delivers.

Economists think about the globe as one big market and capital and labor are free to move about. Reality is that we are nations and we have populations that need jobs and we have a self interest to have people support themselves and pay into our federal treasury, not to have the government to support our people and have the treasury pay out to them.

It is rather amazing to see the mixture of traditional conservatives and neo-liberals espousing the same economic principles...as if there is no other way...as if everything up until now has been such a booming success all around. Oh sure, there has been lots of success right? You know where right? Plenty of people benefit from the principles of global markets and free flowing capital. Never knew just how many people believed in all of that until somebody really started rocking the boat on trade.

Well, you either want change or you don't. You either want to tilt the power out of wall street and onto main street or you don't. You are either with the corporate elites, the globalists, the economic theorists...or you live among the common people.

Sure I believe that people of low and high income, and corporations big and small, are entitled to keep as much of their earnings as fiscally possible related to what our government needs to operate (that is always where the rub comes in). So I say, let everyone keep the "fruits" of their labor, as much as they can, but there should be 'influence' how they earn that "fruit" in a way that benefits the nation and everyone as a whole. That influence can be a tariff, it can be some other type of trade barrier.

The fact that the US is such a consumer driven economy isn't a weakness in world with tariffs, it is instead a strength. Because so many producers from outside of our country want to sell to our consumers, if those foreign producers (or domestic producers exporting from abroad) want to sell here and they face a tax that makes their products more expensive and less desirable what will they do? They will try and avoid the tax and how do they do that? They produce more from within our border for our consumers and as a result they hire more of our consumers in addition to just selling to them.

 
 


Powered by XForum 1.81.1 by Trollix Software

Privacy | Terms of Service | Report Infringement | Personal Data Management | Contact Us
The ALLMAN BROTHERS BAND name, The ALLMAN BROTHERS name, likenesses, logos, mushroom design and peach truck are all registered trademarks of THE ABB MERCHANDISING CO., INC. whose rights are specifically reserved. Any artwork, visual, or audio representations used on this web site CONTAINING ANY REGISTERED TRADEMARKS are under license from The ABB MERCHANDISING CO., INC. A REVOCABLE, GRATIS LICENSE IS GRANTED TO ALL REGISTERED PEACH CORP MEMBERS FOR The DOWNLOADING OF ONE COPY FOR PERSONAL USE ONLY. ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION OF THE TRADEMARKS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROHIBITED AND ARE SPECIFICALLY RESERVED BY THE ABB MERCHANDISING CO.,INC.
site by Hittin' the Web Group with www.experiencewasabi3d.com