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Author: Subject: Whippin' Post Weather Volume TWO

Zen Peach



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  posted on 7/9/2018 at 07:16 PM
I hate to even say this so far away from August, but predictions are August will be like hell for THE ENTIRE COUNTRY, and it will last for most the month. I saw the dark red on the map for my area (which means 100-105).

What is so unreal is that it will be the ENTIRE COUNTRY. There really will not be anyplace you can go to get cool.

 

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"Mankind is a single nation" "Allah did not make you a single people so he could try you in what he gave you, to him you will all return, he will inform you where you differed". Quran Chapter 2 Sura 213

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 8/6/2018 at 05:41 PM
Hurricane Hector is going by Hawaii. It's a Cat 4 now.

Meanwhile elsewhere, well you know, the heat. I think they should turn off Cern during the summer season.

 

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"Mankind is a single nation" "Allah did not make you a single people so he could try you in what he gave you, to him you will all return, he will inform you where you differed". Quran Chapter 2 Sura 213

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 8/11/2018 at 11:36 AM
Blame the jet stream for the miserable weather we have had and still do.

https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2018-08-09-wet-pattern-heavy-rai n-flooding-east-middle-august

We keep getting "torrential rainfall" 2-3 inches per hour level rain, with lightning, and 40-60 mile per hour winds. The heat and humidity has also come along with it, we get 3 days with 90+ temps and humidity then a couple of days with mid 80's. It's just weather terror at atmospheric abuse. None of this can be a natural phenomenon!

 

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"Mankind is a single nation" "Allah did not make you a single people so he could try you in what he gave you, to him you will all return, he will inform you where you differed". Quran Chapter 2 Sura 213

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 8/13/2018 at 01:39 PM
The heavy rains continue and will continue tomorrow also. Then the rains ease up and the 90 degree with the humidity returns. Now it is in the mid 80's but the rain when it comes is heavy rain.

https://twitter.com/accu_Jesse

https://twitter.com/hashtag/RobertMoses?src=hash

Had a huge shelf cloud stretched from horizon to horizon left a lot of rain and terror across Long Island on Saturday.

The siuation in New Jersey is pretty bad flooding rivers have went over their banks, more rain to come tonight.

Eastern PA, 2-4 more inches for them overnight.
They already got blasted this morning with 4-5 inches PER HOUR.
https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2018-08-09-wet-pattern-heavy-rai n-flooding-east-middle-august


Henry tells it like it is, no relief 10 more days of flooding.
https://weathermadness.com/

https://weathermadness.com/2018/08/13/no-hope-for-heavy-rain-relief-more-fl ooding-next-10-days/

After the 10-14 days, we come near the end of August, that is when the sub-Saharan dust layer decreases allowing hurricanes to form, so the summer of hell could become the year of hell. You just never can tell.





[Edited on 8/13/2018 by gina]

 

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"Mankind is a single nation" "Allah did not make you a single people so he could try you in what he gave you, to him you will all return, he will inform you where you differed". Quran Chapter 2 Sura 213

 

True Peach



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  posted on 8/17/2018 at 09:44 AM
They were all set up at Watkins Glen when at the last minute the town had to shut down Phish's Curveball Festival because of torrential downpours that polluted the local water supply -- they said 6 inches of rain or so over the previous few days
That's Whippin' Post weather alright -- everybody was upset, town was empathetic but said they had no choice

 

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"I know y'all came to hear our songs, we like to play 'em for you but without Gregg here it's really hard for us to do. He sings & plays so much & does such a good job. He's really sick, 103* He might've come, but no one would let him." Duane

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 8/29/2018 at 07:23 PM
I've been hesitant to bring it up, though I heard about his even before now. There was one storm that could hav become a hurricane and come up here 8-30-18, but it went into Houston as just a storm. Four excellent meteorologists have been mentioning that the tropics will heat up and the sub Saharan dust layer decreases in September October, which means storms coming off of Africa can become tropical depressions, storms, then hurricanes and then cause damage to the US mainland. One scenario (the European model) shows this one that Jeff mentions as developing into a hurricane and then heading to New Orleans or the Gulf Coast OR crossing Northern Florida and heading northbound. When? About 10 days out for northern impact IF that occurs. Sooner for the Gulf if development happens.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-08-29-tropical-development-p ossible-gulf-of-mexico-florida-bahamas?cm_ven=wu_videos

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/08/29/hurricane-season-comi ng-life-atlantic/1132669002/

"One storm could spin up in the Caribbean over the next few days and affect Florida over the Labor Day weekend. Looking further ahead, "there is the potential for two or three tropical features spinning over the Atlantic by the second weekend in September," AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said."

GET READY FOLKS.

[Edited on 8/30/2018 by gina]

 

____________________
"Mankind is a single nation" "Allah did not make you a single people so he could try you in what he gave you, to him you will all return, he will inform you where you differed". Quran Chapter 2 Sura 213

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 9/1/2018 at 02:15 PM
update 9-1-18

There is a storm that will go in the Gulf - Models indicate New Orleans or Houston. Impact 9/5/18

The European model says New Orleans at 1001 mb.
The CMC thinks Houston at 997 mb


HURRICANE FLORENCE - models say it should stay in the ocean, but I have seen some very troubling things such as 3-4 eyewall replacement cycles.

There are also more storms after Florence, their names, Norman, Miriam, 17E.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pk g=z500_mslp&runtime=2018090112&fh=120

Florence at 1009 mb - this is two weeks out from the NY area.














[Edited on 9/1/2018 by gina]

 

____________________
"Mankind is a single nation" "Allah did not make you a single people so he could try you in what he gave you, to him you will all return, he will inform you where you differed". Quran Chapter 2 Sura 213

 

True Peach



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  posted on 9/4/2018 at 12:02 PM
Yep, Gordon is barreling toward the gulf coast & expected to make landfall tonight -- w/Florence not far behind, although that's more out to sea

 

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"I know y'all came to hear our songs, we like to play 'em for you but without Gregg here it's really hard for us to do. He sings & plays so much & does such a good job. He's really sick, 103* He might've come, but no one would let him." Duane

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 9/5/2018 at 07:42 PM
Empathy goes out to those along the coastline dealing with Gordon and it's rain but we need to talk about Florence.

It is now a Cat 3. As the professional meteorologists have explained there is a lot of variables in the path of this storm; the models have been divergent also. One model has it going inland at Charleston, SC on 9-13-18 (one of the European runs), other models have it staying off shore but near the coastline and coming up near the Delmarva (Delaware, Maryland, Virginia). If it does not hit any land on 9-13, it will probably become a Cat 4.

Have to get more info as it gets closer to possible impacts, but this is a powerful storm, and there are 3 more after this.

Just for your reference:

Millibars do translate into the strength of the storm. The lower the millbars, the worse the storm is.

Greater than 980 milibars means a Cat 1 (74-95 miles per hour)

979-965 mililbars means a Cat 2 (96-110 miles per hour)

964-945 millibars means a Cat 3 (111-130 miles per hour)

944-920 mililbars means a Cat 4 (131-155 miles per hour)

Less than 920 millibars means a cat 5 (156 miles per hour)

Historically, Charlie was at 941 millibars
Andrew was at 922 millibars
Katrina was at 920 millibars




[Edited on 9/6/2018 by gina]

 

____________________
"Mankind is a single nation" "Allah did not make you a single people so he could try you in what he gave you, to him you will all return, he will inform you where you differed". Quran Chapter 2 Sura 213

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 9/7/2018 at 07:23 PM
Florence - some of the meteorologists I follow have been getting inundated by people concerned about Florence and rightly so. Florence is a big bad storm. Predicted to regain status of Cat 3 possibly going to Cat 4 by Tuesday this thing is powerful. The hurricane hunters were going to go into it on Tuesday, but they have moved that up and are going in tomorrow by the evening. We should have a better guage on the storm after that.

There are many variables with the storm which is why no one is predicting a specific place of impact, they include steering currents, 500 mb anomalies which cause the storm to influence and create it's own environment per Henry. Then you have the trough to the north, the ridge to the west, AND factor in the influence from the remnants of Gordon. There is a lot to consider.

Nevertheless, the runs this morning had first impact as the Delmarva as a Cat 3 on Friday, then NYC/LI Saturday to Monday as a Cat 1. The later models today had points from Wilimington, NC to Norfolk and Chesapeake Bay as first strike points as a Cat 3.

Jeff has pointed out that the storm may be a Cat 4 by Tuesday. He shares the 3 scenarios that are being looked at by those who know meteorology.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Florence-Increasing-Danger-US-East-Coast


What I know is that 2 days before impact is too late for anyone to try to leave an area expected to be hit because the outer rain bands are already there with wind gusts. If you (and that includes me) are in an area expected to be badly hit, you better get out of there 3 days before to be on the safe side. Otherwise, you just have to deal with it. Since there is no way to evacuate the more than 11 million people in NYC and Long Island that is why they never do. Use you own good sense if necessary.

NOW, IT IS POSSIBLE IT DOES NOT HIT LAND. Henry said it could do a loop and come near the coastline and then just go out to sea. So, what does this all mean? Wait till Monday, we should know then. When info. comes out from the Hurricane Hunters, they may have a better idea.

 

____________________
"Mankind is a single nation" "Allah did not make you a single people so he could try you in what he gave you, to him you will all return, he will inform you where you differed". Quran Chapter 2 Sura 213

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 9/9/2018 at 03:21 PM
Florence -

Carolina in the Crosshairs - a strong Cat 3 or Cat 4 is expected.

We will know more tomorrow, but for now what some of the model predictions are saying are quite bleek.

"epic level storm surge 48 foot waves" for the coastline.
Gusts of over 100 miles per hour
33.5 inches of rain....

From our man in the know, who must have his Big Daddy Hat on by now.

https://twitter.com/HenryMargusity


Joe Cioffi is a local meteorologist who was on our Cable news for years. He is very astute.

https://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2018/09/09/florence-headin g-west-threat-to-carolinas-increases-late-week/


WIND ARRIVAL TIMES
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145023.shtml?mltoa34#co ntents

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/091450.shtml?

"All indications are that Florence will be an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane while it moves over
the western Atlantic toward the southeastern United States. The Ohio Valley ridge is concerning
because Florence could stop moving pretty quickly around day 5, potentially leading to a serious heavy rain episode and inland flood hazard. "

THREE FEET OF RAIN IS NO JOKE.





[Edited on 9/9/2018 by gina]

 

____________________
"Mankind is a single nation" "Allah did not make you a single people so he could try you in what he gave you, to him you will all return, he will inform you where you differed". Quran Chapter 2 Sura 213

 

True Peach



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  posted on 9/10/2018 at 08:46 AM
"Big daddy hat".

Doing a great job Gina. Keep it up.


 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 9/10/2018 at 02:53 PM
Bernie echoes what others have said.

https://twitter.com/AccuRayno

Others have zeroed in on the impact point at being Wilmington. But since the storm will sit over land as it goes on, 48 hours of rain will cause major flooding as Bernie has pointed out.


Henry tells it like it is.

" I like a landfall near Wilmington, NC but as a slowing storm and stalling storm which means big problems. If you remain on the coast when Florence hits, you can be killed. Think of this storm as a huge EF-3 tornado that will buzz down trees and do extensive damage to property. Then we have the flooding which will be measured in feet. So the only thing I can say is prepare now."

https://weathermadness.com/2018/09/10/live-blog-major-hurricane-florence-tr ack-and-impacts/


The storm is a solid CAT 4. 147 miles per hour at landfall!

Latest Data:
Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1200 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence
has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds
near 130 mph (195 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based
on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).


Jeff predicts a 15-20 FOOT STORM SURGE.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Expect-Storm-Surge-15-20-Feet-Landfalling -Category-4-Storm-Carolinas

"Depending on where its center makes landfall, a mid-strength Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds hitting at high tide, in a worst-case scenario, can generate a storm tide in excess of twenty feet above ground level along the entire coast of South Carolina, and along most of the coast of southern North Carolina from the South Carolina border to Morehead City. Many locations could see a higher surge, of up to 27 feet. And a Category 5 storm is much worse: a theoretical peak storm tide of 33 feet is predicted by the SLOSH model for the Intracoastal Waterway north of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. These peak surges occur over a 10 - 40 mile stretch of coast where the right eyewall makes landfall. If Florence were to make landfall near Wilmington, NC, for example, the highest surges would extend northeastward to around Jacksonville, NC."


If you are in NC and plan to get out be aware that the cone of the winds extends to Atlanta and Knoxville, you would need to be west of these areas to not have to deal with tropical storm force winds, and in the north, the cone goes to Cincinnati/Columbus Ohio and Pittsburgh,PA, so if you are in an area subject to flooding in PA, you might want to consider going west of these areas.




[Edited on 9/10/2018 by gina]

 

____________________
"Mankind is a single nation" "Allah did not make you a single people so he could try you in what he gave you, to him you will all return, he will inform you where you differed". Quran Chapter 2 Sura 213

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 9/10/2018 at 03:43 PM
This is actually some very good info. for any future things people may encounter.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/surge_images.asp



 

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"Mankind is a single nation" "Allah did not make you a single people so he could try you in what he gave you, to him you will all return, he will inform you where you differed". Quran Chapter 2 Sura 213

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 9/11/2018 at 03:16 PM
IMPACT POINT for Florence Bayboro, north of Wilimington.

 

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"Mankind is a single nation" "Allah did not make you a single people so he could try you in what he gave you, to him you will all return, he will inform you where you differed". Quran Chapter 2 Sura 213

 

True Peach



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  posted on 9/13/2018 at 11:32 AM
it's a Category 2 hurricane -- also, TV says, a category 5 flood threat -- hadn't heard that term b4 -- for all the damage predicted to be inflicted, Category 2 doesn't seem like much

already however, people are out of power (weatherchannel.com) -- not another Katrina but looks serious, & like Katrina, concerns about other blows coming in behind this one

I wish they'd just call it one thing & not complicate/confuse things -- looks like a Category IV to me

Gordon turned out to be less serious on the Gulf Coast than it was last week -- hopefully landfall will quickly take the legs outta this one

 

____________________
"I know y'all came to hear our songs, we like to play 'em for you but without Gregg here it's really hard for us to do. He sings & plays so much & does such a good job. He's really sick, 103* He might've come, but no one would let him." Duane

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 9/17/2018 at 05:57 PM
Thankfully it went down to a 1 or the damage would have been worse. 500,000 people still have no eletricity, that's pretty bad.

I don't even know if some folks can handle this, but two weeks out [from now] the GFS has another hurricane, Atlantic based coming up the coast along the same areas that were hit this time. The name, Kirk. No the main stream folks don't have anything on it yet, but we'll have to keep a lookout.

 

____________________
"Mankind is a single nation" "Allah did not make you a single people so he could try you in what he gave you, to him you will all return, he will inform you where you differed". Quran Chapter 2 Sura 213

 
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