Don't click or your IP will be banned


Hittin' The Web with the Allman Brothers Band Forum
You are not logged in

< Last Thread   Next Thread ><<  1    2  >>Ascending sortDescending sorting  
Author: Subject: Home Sales lowest in 15 years

Sublime Peach





Posts: 7168
(7166 all sites)
Registered: 4/7/2002
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/24/2010 at 12:50 PM
http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/24/real_estate/existing_home_sales/index.htm?h pt=T2

Plunging home sales could sink recovery
By Hibah Yousuf, staff reporterAugust 24, 2010: 12:25 PM ET


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- With home sales plunging to their lowest level in 15 years, economists warn that a double-dip in housing prices is just around the corner, threatening to further slow the overall recovery.

Existing home sales sank 27.2% in July, twice as much as analysts expected, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units. Much of that drop is attributed to the end of the $8,000 homebuyer tax credit.

That credit brought buyers out in droves, as they tried to sign home contracts before the April 30 deadline. Now, two months later, sales are 34% below April's tax incentive-induced peak.

"Home sales were eye-wateringly weak in July," said economist Paul Dales of Capital Economics. "It is becoming abundantly clear that the housing market is undermining the already faltering wider economic recovery. With an increasingly inevitable double-dip in housing prices yet to come, things could get a lot worse."

The sales pace of all homes -- single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops -- is at the lowest since NAR began tracking the figure in 1999. Sales of single-family homes, which account for a bulk of the transactions, are at the lowest level since May 1995.

Inventory has also continued to climb, rising 2.5% to 3.98 million existing homes for sale. That represents a 12.5-month supply at the current sales pace, the highest since October 1982 when it stood at 13.8 months. A six-month of supply is considered normal.
5 most affordable cities to buy a house

The combination of weak demand and glut of homes has put downward pressure on prices.

And as the recession proved, the housing market and the broader economy are closely intertwined. When housing prices collapse, so does the overall wealth and confidence of Americans.

"Falling housing prices strain the overall confidence in the economy and discourage Americans from spending," Dales said. "They also mean that banks lose money on their investments and curtail lending, meaning there is less money out there to invest and boost the economy.

The NAR report showed that the median price of homes sold in July was $182,600, up 0.7% from a year ago. Just under a third of homes sold during the month were distressed properties.

Though prices have yet to fall back, Dales expects they will decline about 5% from current levels over the next six months.

On the bright side, Dales said while a drop prices will put a dent in the economy recovery, it won't lead to another recession.

"The bulk of the downward adjustment in housing prices has been achieved over the last several years, so we're not headed for a complete disaster," said Dales. "We're going to see a double-dip in housing prices, but not a double-dip in the overall economy."

[Edited on 8/24/2010 by jerryphilbob]

 

____________________
"If everyone demanded peace instead of another television set, then there'd be peace."

- John Lennon

 
Replies:

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 16027
(16019 all sites)
Registered: 10/13/2007
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/24/2010 at 09:26 PM
Mortgage rates at less than 4% and still nobody out buying houses. Amazing.

 

____________________

 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 15832
(15866 all sites)
Registered: 8/9/2002
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 12:03 AM
Amazing? Not at all.

People need jobs to buy houses.

 

____________________


 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 20121
(20181 all sites)
Registered: 2/9/2006
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 04:53 AM
Home Sales lowest in 15 years

I feel and have felt all along that it is only going to get worse.

 

____________________

 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 46751
(46752 all sites)
Registered: 7/8/2004
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 08:55 AM
quote:
Mortgage rates at less than 4% and still nobody out buying houses. Amazing.


Gotta get approved for the loan...

 

____________________
"Live every week like it's Shark Week." - Tracy Jordan

 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 46751
(46752 all sites)
Registered: 7/8/2004
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 08:56 AM
I do a little "free consulting" from time to time for folks I know or friends of friends that ask for help wading through the mess of needing help with an existing loan or getting a new one. Lenders...

 

____________________
"Live every week like it's Shark Week." - Tracy Jordan

 

Maximum Peach



Karma:
Posts: 8384
(8385 all sites)
Registered: 3/22/2006
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 09:03 AM
If sales rates stay depressed like this for long, another plunge in home values will be the next bad news. That will fuel more foreclosures as folks look at their mortgages vs home value and just walk away.

I'm looking at putting on a new roof ($20k - ouch!) and I just wonder if I'll ever get my money back on this place.

 

____________________
Obamacare: To insure the uninsured, we first make the insured
uninsured and then make them pay more to be insured again,
so the original uninsured can be insured for free.

 

Maximum Peach



Karma:
Posts: 9082
(9082 all sites)
Registered: 2/25/2003
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 09:05 AM
quote:
Lenders...


No **** , I just refid my homeÖwell hopefully, waiting on the appraisal to come back, although I am paying down some of the principal too, so that should help. I have Wells Fargo currently, and just switched from them because they were such a pain in the arse. They would not lift a finger to help. Itís funny how 5 years ago when we bought the house, they didnít even want to see a pay stub, and now they practically want a limb with your payment.

 

Maximum Peach



Karma:
Posts: 9082
(9082 all sites)
Registered: 2/25/2003
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 09:07 AM
quote:
If sales rates stay depressed like this for long, another plunge in home values will be the next bad news. That will fuel more foreclosures as folks look at their mortgages vs home value and just walk away.

I'm looking at putting on a new roof ($20k - ouch!) and I just wonder if I'll ever get my money back on this place.


There is also an inventory of about 6 million homes; thatís about a yearís worth of inventory. Not good.

 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 46751
(46752 all sites)
Registered: 7/8/2004
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 09:08 AM
quote:
If sales rates stay depressed like this for long, another plunge in home values will be the next bad news. That will fuel more foreclosures as folks look at their mortgages vs home value and just walk away.

I'm looking at putting on a new roof ($20k - ouch!) and I just wonder if I'll ever get my money back on this place.


This just may be the new normal.

There's just too many houses. Egg came before the chicken for 10 years. All those crazy loan products in California (the 50 year I/O, for example) came about because there were too many empty houses. All over the place. In Florida there were/are entire subdivisions of new empty houses. Heck, not but a mile or so from my house a developer built 60 condos/villas, took up a four block square. Finished them 2 years ago. Units sold=0. They just sit there. They are beautiful, though. Beautifully empty.

 

____________________
"Live every week like it's Shark Week." - Tracy Jordan

 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 25197
(25227 all sites)
Registered: 1/5/2002
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 09:18 AM
quote:
If sales rates stay depressed like this for long, another plunge in home values will be the next bad news. That will fuel more foreclosures as folks look at their mortgages vs home value and just walk away.

I'm looking at putting on a new roof ($20k - ouch!) and I just wonder if I'll ever get my money back on this place.


20 grand for a new roof in Charlotte you must have a very large house

Give me the info and I'll get it done for $15,000

 

____________________

 

Maximum Peach



Karma:
Posts: 8384
(8385 all sites)
Registered: 3/22/2006
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 09:23 AM
You're right on target Hawk with the over-supply comment. Its one of the reasons I never understood the silly mortgage bonus program from the stimulus.

They were trying to prop up home prices via incentives. But that's like tying a life preserver to a sinking cruise liner and thinking it will help keep it afloat. The market is gonna do what its gonna do, and prices are going to find their natural level in relation to what people can pay. That's the only outcome possible, much as it will hurt most of us who own homes.

 

____________________
Obamacare: To insure the uninsured, we first make the insured
uninsured and then make them pay more to be insured again,
so the original uninsured can be insured for free.

 

Maximum Peach



Karma:
Posts: 8384
(8385 all sites)
Registered: 3/22/2006
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 09:32 AM
quote:
quote:
If sales rates stay depressed like this for long, another plunge in home values will be the next bad news. That will fuel more foreclosures as folks look at their mortgages vs home value and just walk away.

I'm looking at putting on a new roof ($20k - ouch!) and I just wonder if I'll ever get my money back on this place.
20 grand for a new roof in Charlotte you must have a very large house

Give me the info and I'll get it done for $15,000
Its not just a roof, which is a little more than half that. It's fascia repair and gutter replacement too.

Many years ago, I had some Gutter Helmet installed on my house because the majority of the roof was a very high two-stories (need a 28' ladder at least to reach). No way I was going to get up there 2-3 times a year for cleanings. Well, it turns out that where I could see the install, they did a good job. Where I couldn't see it (most of the roof), they did a half-arsed job, which has caused other problems. That's resulted in the extra repairs.

I may look into suing, but in some initial talks I get the sense it would be even more expense with a very questionable outcome.

 

____________________
Obamacare: To insure the uninsured, we first make the insured
uninsured and then make them pay more to be insured again,
so the original uninsured can be insured for free.

 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 15832
(15866 all sites)
Registered: 8/9/2002
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 09:59 AM
Not that I get any pleasure it it, but I was forecasting the current housing problem at least 10 years ago. It will be at least that long before we ever see building like we used to, if ever. I think the mindset of the American people is changing. Rampant consumerism is a thing of the past. I'd rather see people pooling their funds and building sustainable homes and communities than just following the corporate providers around like flocks of sheep. All of this is a good thing, hard as it is to see it now.

 

____________________


 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 46751
(46752 all sites)
Registered: 7/8/2004
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 10:10 AM
quote:
You're right on target Hawk with the over-supply comment. Its one of the reasons I never understood the silly mortgage bonus program from the stimulus.

They were trying to prop up home prices via incentives. But that's like tying a life preserver to a sinking cruise liner and thinking it will help keep it afloat. The market is gonna do what its gonna do, and prices are going to find their natural level in relation to what people can pay. That's the only outcome possible, much as it will hurt most of us who own homes.


Well, any homeowner that still has their house but took part in the refinance-use-my-house-as-an-ATM game also has a hand in it.

I think the intent on the mortgage mod program was genuine. It was too little, too late.

Back when the crash was starting, me and a few other guys in the business (nobody ever asked us, though) felt that the Fed/government should have immediately made the ARM loan illegal and immediately should have mandated that every active ARM loan should have been reset to the origial interest rate at the time of closing. The logic behind that notion is that 90% of people could afford the loan until the ARM resets made their payments go up. At least give borrowers a shot at making payments at the original rate, and if they couldn't, then let the chips fall where they may.

As to the mortgage program you refer to...a couple of things. One - the guidelines were just that...a guide. Ultimately, it was still up to the lender to decide if a borrower qualified for the program. Two - the guidelines were ridiculous. Three- you could only be eligible if your loan was backed by Fannie or Freddie.

 

____________________
"Live every week like it's Shark Week." - Tracy Jordan

 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 46751
(46752 all sites)
Registered: 7/8/2004
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 10:13 AM
quote:
Not that I get any pleasure it it, but I was forecasting the current housing problem at least 10 years ago. It will be at least that long before we ever see building like we used to, if ever. I think the mindset of the American people is changing. Rampant consumerism is a thing of the past. I'd rather see people pooling their funds and building sustainable homes and communities than just following the corporate providers around like flocks of sheep. All of this is a good thing, hard as it is to see it now.


We knew it, and we were doing it.

I will never ever forget being in a conference room when we were talking about the new Payment Option ARM product. Oh, the peals of laughter. We weren't laughing because of any sinister reason, we were laughing because we knew that people wouldn't do the sensible thing, they'd do the easiest thing. One guy joked "This thing is nothing but a recipe for foreclosure."

 

____________________
"Live every week like it's Shark Week." - Tracy Jordan

 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 46751
(46752 all sites)
Registered: 7/8/2004
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 10:14 AM
Since we're talking about values, how about another factor no one mentions...all those values that got pushed, who pushed them? Appraisers. Anyone ever hear of a review, investigation or overhaul of our appraisal system?

 

____________________
"Live every week like it's Shark Week." - Tracy Jordan

 

Maximum Peach



Karma:
Posts: 8271
(8271 all sites)
Registered: 6/9/2002
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 10:20 AM
My house in Macon gets listed today. I think I'm in good shape because of the location, College Hill, a block from Mercer, and incentives offered by the college.

Time will tell.

Wish me luck.

 

____________________
Capitalism will always survive, because socialism will be there to save it.

Ralph Nader's Father


 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 16027
(16019 all sites)
Registered: 10/13/2007
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 10:22 AM
The only value that matters is what someone is willing to pay, and home values haven't been allowed to drop to their own natural levels -- thus no rebound.

 

____________________

 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 46751
(46752 all sites)
Registered: 7/8/2004
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 10:24 AM
quote:
The only value that matters is what someone is willing to pay, and home values haven't been allowed to drop to their own natural levels -- thus no rebound.


Haven't been "allowed..." how so?

 

____________________
"Live every week like it's Shark Week." - Tracy Jordan

 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 46751
(46752 all sites)
Registered: 7/8/2004
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 10:24 AM
quote:
My house in Macon gets listed today. I think I'm in good shape because of the location, College Hill, a block from Mercer, and incentives offered by the college.

Time will tell.

Wish me luck.


Good luck Billy!

 

____________________
"Live every week like it's Shark Week." - Tracy Jordan

 

Maximum Peach



Karma:
Posts: 8271
(8271 all sites)
Registered: 6/9/2002
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 10:26 AM
Thanks Bhawk!

 

____________________
Capitalism will always survive, because socialism will be there to save it.

Ralph Nader's Father


 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 15832
(15866 all sites)
Registered: 8/9/2002
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 10:26 AM
One thing we don't often mention is that most of those over-priced homes were pieces of sh*t built by illegal immigrant labor. So while prices were going up and the banks were making a killing, skilled tradesmen were already seeing their wages cut and jobs disappear. I knew nothing of mortgages, but I could see what was happening on the ground.

 

____________________


 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 16027
(16019 all sites)
Registered: 10/13/2007
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 10:40 AM
quote:
quote:
The only value that matters is what someone is willing to pay, and home values haven't been allowed to drop to their own natural levels -- thus no rebound.


Haven't been "allowed..." how so?


http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504383_162-5512244-504383.html

 

____________________

 

Zen Peach



Karma:
Posts: 46751
(46752 all sites)
Registered: 7/8/2004
Status: Offline

  posted on 8/25/2010 at 10:57 AM
quote:
quote:
quote:
The only value that matters is what someone is willing to pay, and home values haven't been allowed to drop to their own natural levels -- thus no rebound.


Haven't been "allowed..." how so?


http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504383_162-5512244-504383.html


While I'm certainly not shocked that you would find a way to blame Obama, the example there is but a very small part of it.

First of all, 50% of the loans/homes that are the problem had nothing to do with the government.

Secondly, a gigantic problem is that after getting values inflated year over year, people are putting their houses on the market for not what the house is worth, but what they owe. Say you own a house and the county assessor says it is worth $205,000 and the appraisal comes in at $210,000, but after several refinances the homeowner owes $240,000 on their mortgage. They have to list the house at $250k-$260k to leave wiggle room to still get the loan paid off. Problem is, the prospective buyer gets to see the appraisal too. The lender won't accept anything less than the full loan amount. Wait, you say, what about a short sale? Well, a short sale or any other type of loss mitigation arrangement, you have to be 90 days or more delinquent to even talk to the loss mit department. You actually have to stop paying your mortgage (even if you can afford the payment) whether by choice or not, take the credit report hit, actually become delinquent. On issue with any kind of credit lending in America is that if you get in a hole, you have to go all the way down to the bottom of the hole to get back out. I can't tell you how shocked people are that their lender won't work with them when the borrower knows that come three or four months from now they won't be able to afford the payment anymore, and are even more shocked when I or someone else tells them that they have to stop doing the "right thing" and do the "wrong thing," go delinquent. It goes against one of the credit brainwashing rules..."Always make your mortgage payment." It's hard to hear "If you want a shot at saving your house, you need to stop making payments for a while."

Ever see a house sit on sale for a long time, change realtors every month or so, then finally FSBO, then a For Rent sign next to the For Sale sign? 99 times out of a 100 that guy is trying to cover his payment, and he won't sell it for less because he can't.

I know you like to dismiss the experience I have in this area, but I do know what I am talking about. Mortgage lenders, appraisers and yes, borrowers past and present have a huge part in the "blame." I know that's not going to satisfy the easy answer of "It's Barney Frank and Obama's fault," but it's true.

 

____________________
"Live every week like it's Shark Week." - Tracy Jordan

 
<<  1    2  >>  


Powered by XForum 1.81.1 by Trollix Software

Privacy | Terms of Service | Report Infringement | Personal Data Management | Contact Us
The ALLMAN BROTHERS BAND name, The ALLMAN BROTHERS name, likenesses, logos, mushroom design and peach truck are all registered trademarks of THE ABB MERCHANDISING CO., INC. whose rights are specifically reserved. Any artwork, visual, or audio representations used on this web site CONTAINING ANY REGISTERED TRADEMARKS are under license from The ABB MERCHANDISING CO., INC. A REVOCABLE, GRATIS LICENSE IS GRANTED TO ALL REGISTERED PEACH CORP MEMBERS FOR The DOWNLOADING OF ONE COPY FOR PERSONAL USE ONLY. ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION OF THE TRADEMARKS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROHIBITED AND ARE SPECIFICALLY RESERVED BY THE ABB MERCHANDISING CO.,INC.
site by Hittin' the Web Group with www.experiencewasabi3d.com