Thread: Intel experts again contradict Trump

crazyjoe - 1/30/2019 at 07:18 AM

Once again his own Intelligence Leaders have issued dire warnings that directly contradict Trump's own "wisdom" and his constant idiotic statements and actions that continually place us in financial, technological and physical danger, a man so incompetent, I am guessing he struggles to find his own fat ass with both hands?............Peace...... joe
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/grave-warnings-aside-trump-c alls-russian-interference-hoax-again-n897201


https://www.google.com/amp/amp.fox29.com/news/politics/us-intel-chiefs-cont radict-trump-on-north-korea-isis-threats


https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/01/29/politics/us-intelli gence-chiefs-contradict-trump/index.html

Edited on 1/30/2019 by crazyjoe]

[Edited on 1/30/2019 by crazyjoe]


Chain - 1/30/2019 at 05:38 PM

Come on Joe, Trump knows more than the experts....You don't believe the Intelligence community over Trump do you?

Any minute now Bot Boy and Bot Girl will chime in with some scripted post telling us the "Deep State" shouldn't be trusted...Or the panel of Intel experts are all hold over's from the Obama administration and actually hate America...


MartinD28 - 1/30/2019 at 06:09 PM

Weren't most of those who testified before Congress Agent Trump's appointments? How could they go against what he said? Doesn't he demand loyalty over facts / accuracy?


pops42 - 1/30/2019 at 07:36 PM

Only the gullible and/or stupid will believe anything trump says.


tbomike - 1/30/2019 at 08:24 PM

quote:
Only the gullible and/or stupid will believe anything trump says.


http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/has-trump-peddled-bogus-claims-abou t-the-border-because-movie


MartinD28 - 1/30/2019 at 11:55 PM

What an arrogant & uninformed president we have. He thinks he knows more than career intel types. It's amazing he disputes intel community but bows down and won't criticize Russia & Putin.

"Trump Calls Intelligence Officials ĎNaiveí After They Contradict Him"

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/30/us/politics/trump-intelligence.html


sckeys - 1/31/2019 at 01:25 AM

Now lets hold the horses folks. Have we heard from ann coulter yet?


Chain - 1/31/2019 at 02:31 PM

quote:
What an arrogant & uninformed president we have. He thinks he knows more than career intel types. It's amazing he disputes intel community but bows down and won't criticize Russia & Putin.

"Trump Calls Intelligence Officials ĎNaiveí After They Contradict Him"

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/30/us/politics/trump-intelligence.html




Probably just as amazing is that there are Trump supporters who think he does actually know more than career intel professionals....and more than generals....and more than economists....and more than, well, most any professional.


BoytonBrother - 1/31/2019 at 02:44 PM

quote:
Probably just as amazing is that there are Trump supporters who think he does actually know more than career intel professionals....and more than generals....and more than economists....and more than, well, most any professional.


The good news is that Trump is exposing the weak and deranged - his followers and admirers - who donít represent politics, conservatism, or the Republican Party. Itís plain lunacy to follow someone that praises Putin while attacking our own intelligence agencies, but these folks sure do exist.l, sadly. Itís good to know who these people are.

Some guy named Ben Shapiro has been making the media rounds for his comments. Putting politics aside - his tone suggests that anyone outside of the Trump loyalists is an enemy to the United States. This mentality is as unamerican as it gets. These people are nuts. Whatever happened to debating about healthcare costs?


Chain - 1/31/2019 at 04:02 PM

quote:
quote:
Probably just as amazing is that there are Trump supporters who think he does actually know more than career intel professionals....and more than generals....and more than economists....and more than, well, most any professional.


The good news is that Trump is exposing the weak and deranged - his followers and admirers - who donít represent politics, conservatism, or the Republican Party. Itís plain lunacy to follow someone that praises Putin while attacking our own intelligence agencies, but these folks sure do exist.l, sadly. Itís good to know who these people are.

Some guy named Ben Shapiro has been making the media rounds for his comments. Putting politics aside - his tone suggests that anyone outside of the Trump loyalists is an enemy to the United States. This mentality is as unamerican as it gets. These people are nuts. Whatever happened to debating about healthcare costs?


I sometimes wonder if people like Shapiro actually believe what they're saying or if they simply see an opportunity to do exactly what Trump and his henchman/women have done. That is to build a brand/following that can be milked for personal profit. Many of Trump's supporters after all have proven to be no more than self promoters who have clung to him only for their own enrichment.

Sure, there are a few exceptions (Steven Miller comes to mind) but no one seems all that passionate to me about any policy coming from the White House...It truly seems like one constant reality tv show to be milked for every penny possible....


MartinD28 - 1/31/2019 at 04:23 PM

quote:
quote:
Probably just as amazing is that there are Trump supporters who think he does actually know more than career intel professionals....and more than generals....and more than economists....and more than, well, most any professional.


The good news is that Trump is exposing the weak and deranged - his followers and admirers - who donít represent politics, conservatism, or the Republican Party. Itís plain lunacy to follow someone that praises Putin while attacking our own intelligence agencies, but these folks sure do exist.l, sadly. Itís good to know who these people are.

Some guy named Ben Shapiro has been making the media rounds for his comments. Putting politics aside - his tone suggests that anyone outside of the Trump loyalists is an enemy to the United States. This mentality is as unamerican as it gets. These people are nuts. Whatever happened to debating about healthcare costs?


Following up on Shapiro, there was a guest on FOX yesterday who was very critical of Dan Coats (DNI) for "not supporting" Trump. Of course Coats should just sandbag for Trump's mischaracterizations. In other words, Coats spoke truth and facts which disagreed with Trump's mental midget knowledge of intelligence and counter-intelligence. Specifically Coats' facts disagree with Trump's BS on actions taking place w/in North Korea.


Chain - 1/31/2019 at 04:34 PM

quote:
quote:
quote:
Probably just as amazing is that there are Trump supporters who think he does actually know more than career intel professionals....and more than generals....and more than economists....and more than, well, most any professional.


The good news is that Trump is exposing the weak and deranged - his followers and admirers - who donít represent politics, conservatism, or the Republican Party. Itís plain lunacy to follow someone that praises Putin while attacking our own intelligence agencies, but these folks sure do exist.l, sadly. Itís good to know who these people are.

Some guy named Ben Shapiro has been making the media rounds for his comments. Putting politics aside - his tone suggests that anyone outside of the Trump loyalists is an enemy to the United States. This mentality is as unamerican as it gets. These people are nuts. Whatever happened to debating about healthcare costs?


Following up on Shapiro, there was a guest on FOX yesterday who was very critical of Dan Coats (DNI) for "not supporting" Trump. Of course Coats should just sandbag for Trump's mischaracterizations. In other words, Coats spoke truth and facts which disagreed with Trump's mental midget knowledge of intelligence and counter-intelligence. Specifically Coats' facts disagree with Trump's BS on actions taking place w/in North Korea.


Fox is a perfect example of my point earlier....They are a network that milks the Trump train for money. They essentially created much of his mystique and greatly helped him get elected and ever since defend him despite actual reality. To the Rupert Murdoch's of the world it's all about making more money no matter what the costs....


gina - 1/31/2019 at 07:45 PM

quote:
Come on Joe, Trump knows more than the experts....You don't believe the Intelligence community over Trump do you?

Any minute now Bot Boy and Bot Girl will chime in with some scripted post telling us the "Deep State" shouldn't be trusted...Or the panel of Intel experts are all hold over's from the Obama administration and actually hate America...



You trust the folks who developed MK Ultra, Mind Control programs, and the torture programs used in Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo? As for me I support my President.


Chain - 2/1/2019 at 12:06 AM

Just heard a clip on the evening news in which Trump claims the Intels were misquoted and the disagreements are fake news...He blames the media and all is actually well out there on the wire so to speak...


Chain - 2/1/2019 at 12:08 AM

quote:
quote:
Come on Joe, Trump knows more than the experts....You don't believe the Intelligence community over Trump do you?

Any minute now Bot Boy and Bot Girl will chime in with some scripted post telling us the "Deep State" shouldn't be trusted...Or the panel of Intel experts are all hold over's from the Obama administration and actually hate America...



You trust the folks who developed MK Ultra, Mind Control programs, and the torture programs used in Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo? As for me I support my President.


Obviously I believe the Intelligence community over a nit wit con man. And obviously you believe the con man.


MartinD28 - 2/1/2019 at 12:20 AM

quote:
Just heard a clip on the evening news in which Trump claims the Intels were misquoted and the disagreements are fake news...He blames the media and all is actually well out there on the wire so to speak...


Yes I saw that too. I also saw the testimony by Coats, Haskel, and Gray speak directly to Congress. What they said was not misquoted. I'd think that the right wingers and libertarians on this site who may have seen the testimony would admit that this is just another of the 7000 plus lies Trump has made since he took office. It's pretty black & white what the intels said, yet here is Russian Don trying to do a spin on their testimony. He's becoming more pathetic by the day. He's digging a deeper & deeper hole on many fronts. He needs to go into the daycare room in the WH and build a wall out of Playdough.


BrerRabbit - 2/1/2019 at 02:37 AM

quote:
You trust the folks who developed MK Ultra, Mind Control programs, and the torture programs used in Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo? As for me I support my President.


Trump loves torture:

Torture works. OK, folks? You know, I have these guysóĒTorture doesnít work!Ēóbelieve me, it works. And waterboarding is your minor form. Some people say itís not actually torture. Letís assume it is. But they asked me the question: What do you think of waterboarding? Absolutely fine. But we should go much stronger than waterboarding.



JimSheridan - 2/1/2019 at 04:31 AM

Gina, help. Here's the facts:

1. Trump has always supported torture.
2. The intel community criticized Trump.
3. Trump criticized them in turn.
4. In support of Trump, you say that the intel community is shady because we shouldn't trust torturers.
5. Trump then claims that the intel folks were misquoted and that they are in line with him.

So, do you support Trump in this issue, Trump who endorses torture even though you seem to be against torture?

Do you support Trump's rebuke of the intel community's criticism of him even after he says that actually they were NOT criticizing him?

I'm genuinely curious here.


nebish - 2/1/2019 at 02:40 PM

The people in the intelligence community are American patriots who serve the country.

The President has never taken much of their advice, he actually almost purposefully goes out of his way to say the opposite! But behind the scenes, thankfully, there are people doing their job for this country. Trump's Presidency will pass. The work done at these intelligence agencies and the threats to America will remain.

One thing about Syria and ISIS, they have been reduced from holding 40,000 square miles in Syria to 1. One could say the mission to defeat them and the caliphate has been won and they have been defeated in that sense. However, that does not mean that they cease to exist and no longer pose a regional or global threat, they very much do. It's just two different things, a victory in one sense and an ongoing battle in another sense. The question just becomes how long does the US have to stay in these countries due to mission creep?


nebish - 2/1/2019 at 05:46 PM

It's pretty interesting read to through the actual threat assessment:



https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/2019-ATA-SFR---SSCI.pdf


gina - 2/1/2019 at 08:59 PM

quote:
Gina, help. Here's the facts:

1. Trump has always supported torture.
2. The intel community criticized Trump.
3. Trump criticized them in turn.
4. In support of Trump, you say that the intel community is shady because we shouldn't trust torturers.
5. Trump then claims that the intel folks were misquoted and that they are in line with him.

So, do you support Trump in this issue, Trump who endorses torture even though you seem to be against torture?


Do you support Trump's rebuke of the intel community's criticism of him even after he says that actually they were NOT criticizing him?

I'm genuinely curious here.



NO I DO NOT EVER SUPPORT/CONDONE TORTURE. I do not think it is ever necessary. I think people lie when tortured just to make the pain stop. I think people are co-erced into false confessions when torture is used.

I am aware of TRUMPS support of torture, and on THIS ISSUE I DISAGREE WITH HIS POSITION.

As to how it is unnecessary, take the case of Zacarius Moussaoui, he was going to flight training school in Oklahoma preparing for when he was going to participate in a terrorist attack, per his own testimony. He was charged with preparing for the 9-11-01 attacks, but he refuted this and told the Judge in that Virginia courthouse that NO he did not plan or participate in the planning or the 9-11-01 WTC attacks, but that he was training for an attack the NEXT YEAR> The Judge convicted him anyway thinking that as long as he was planning something later on, it was okay to convict him on what he was charged with, which was the 9-11-01 attack.

He had no problem telling what he was doing and planning. He did not need to be tortured to provide this information. He believed what he was doing was an acceptable form of jihad. [his belief NOT mine]. The point is, torture was not necessary.

Torture came in the forefront when people from Al Qaida were captured and those who captured them wanted confessions. The majority of the people captured were not planning anything, they were shot at and shot back. There was no need for torture other than to try to justify the 'war on terror' program.

Now the threat is from Isis. They will tell you plain out, what they want, and why they want to do it. Nobody is hiding anything. They want a worldwide caliphate and they want return of Jerusalem into the hands and control of Islam.

If you apply torture to other types of prisoners, who is is valuable for? Not murderers, because people who do that are either sociopaths with no conscience, psychopaths who plan and think they are justified in doing it.

Drug smugglers? It is not even valuable then, each person is just a little fish in cartel chain of command.

Torture is just anger and ignorance in action. If those who wanted to know things had any brains, they would do appropriate investigative work to get to the truth. Apparently they do not have the brains to do that.





[Edited on 2/1/2019 by gina]


gina - 2/1/2019 at 09:02 PM

P.S. I think the intel community probably does have more info. on Iran than Trump has been given.


BrerRabbit - 2/2/2019 at 12:17 AM

quote:
NO I DO NOT EVER SUPPORT/CONDONE TORTURE


Then why do you keep punishing us with your incessant insanity?


MartinD28 - 2/2/2019 at 12:32 AM

quote:
P.S. I think the intel community probably does have more info. on Iran than Trump has been given.


No. It appears that Trump is not interested very much in intel briefings. His interst is instead peaked by watching FOX and Friends. He has said he goes with his intuition & gut, and why not? His opinion and judgement surely is better than the facts known to career intel staff. No different than his opinion of the generals that surrounded him, but some who have quit because they found him impossible to work with or babysit.


nebish - 2/2/2019 at 04:18 PM

quote:
P.S. I think the intel community probably does have more info. on Iran than Trump has been given.


Well, there definitely could be sensitive and classified intelligence that isn't disclosed in an open hearing for Congress. BUT, to say that they have itel on Iran that they haven't given to Trump are you saying they 1) don't trust the President with such information 2) are purposefully keeping data from the President for what reason? I'm assuming you worded your statement correctly. I would certainly hope the intel community would never withhold information from the President.

Here is what Dan Coats said on Iran in his prepared opening statement:

quote:
Now, let me discuss Iran

The Iranian regime will continue pursuing regional ambitions and improved military capabilities, even while its own economy is weakening by the day.

Domestically, regime hardliners will be more emboldened to challenge rival centrists and we expect more unrest in Iran in the months ahead.

Tehran continues to sponsor terrorism as the recent European arrests of Iranian operatives plotting attacks in Europe demonstrate.

We expect Iran will continue supporting the Huthis in Yemen and Shia militants in Iraq, while developing indigenous military capabilities that threaten US forces and allies in the region.

Iran maintains the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East.

And while we do not believe Iran is currently undertaking the key activities we judge necessary to produce a nuclear device, Iranian officials have publicly threatened to push the boundaries of JCPOA restrictions if Iran does not gain the tangible financial benefits it expected from the deal.

Its efforts to consolidate its influence in Syria and arm Hizballah have prompted Israeli airstrikes; these actions underscore our concerns about the longterm trajectory of Iranian influence in the region and the risk of conflict escalation.

All four of these states Ė China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran Ėare advancing their cyber capabilities, which are relatively low-cost and growing in potency and severity.

https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Testimonies/2019-01-29-ATA-Ope ning-Statement_Final.pdf



And here is what the 2019 Global Threat Assessment said on Iran:

quote:
Iran

Iranís regional ambitions and improved military capabilities almost certainly will threaten US interests in the coming year, driven by Tehranís perception of increasing US, Saudi, and Israeli hostility, as well as continuing border insecurity, and the influence of hardliners.

Iranís Objectives in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen

We assess that Iran will attempt to translate battlefield gains in Iraq and Syria into long-term political, security, social, and economic influence while continuing to press Saudi Arabia and the UAE by supporting the Huthis in Yemen.

In Iraq, Iran-supported Popular Mobilization Committee-affiliated Shia militias remain the primary threat to US personnel, and we expect that threat to increase as the threat ISIS poses to the militias recedes, Iraqi Government formation concludes, some Iran-backed groups call for the United States to withdraw, and tension between Iran and the United States grows. We continue to watch for signs that the regime might direct its proxies and partners in Iraq to attack US interests.

Iranís efforts to consolidate its influence in Syria and arm Hizballah have prompted Israeli airstrikes as recently as January 2019 against Iranian positions within Syria and underscore our growing concern about the long-term trajectory of Iranian influence in the region and the risk that conflict will escalate.

Iranís retaliatory missile and UAV strikes on ISIS targets in Syria following the attack on an Iranian military parade in Ahvaz in September were most likely intended to send a message to potential adversaries, showing Tehranís resolve to retaliate when attacked and demonstrating Iranís improving military capabilities and ability to project force.

Iran continues to pursue permanent military bases and economic deals in Syria and probably wants to maintain a network of Shia foreign fighters there despite Israeli attacks on Iranian positions in Syria.

We assess that Iran seeks to avoid a major armed conflict with Israel. However, Israeli strikes that result in Iranian casualties increase the likelihood of Iranian conventional retaliation against Israel, judging from Syrian-based Iranian forcesí firing of rockets into the Golan Heights in May 2018 following an Israeli attack the previous month on Iranians at Tiyas Airbase in Syria.

In Yemen, Iranís support to the Huthis, including supplying ballistic missiles, risks escalating the conflict and poses a serious threat to US partners and interests in the region. Iran continues to provide support that enables Huthi attacks against shipping near the Bab el Mandeb Strait and land-based targets deep inside Saudi Arabia and the UAE, using ballistic missiles and UAVs.

Domestic Politics

Regime hardliners will be more emboldened to challenge rival centrists by undermining their domestic reform efforts and pushing a more confrontational posture toward the United States and its allies.

Centrist President Hasan Ruhani has garnered praise from hardliners with his more hostile posture toward Washington but will still struggle to address ongoing popular discontent. Nationwide protests, mostly focused on economic grievances, have continued to draw attention to the need for major economic reforms and unmet expectations for most Iranians. We expect more unrest in the months ahead, although the protests are likely to remain uncoordinated and lacking central leadership or broad support from major ethnic and political groups.

We assess that Tehran is prepared to take more aggressive security measures in response to renewed unrest while preferring to use nonlethal force.

Ruhaniís ability to reform the economy remains limited, given pervasive corruption, a weak banking sector, and a business climate that discourages foreign investment and trade. Military Modernization and Behavior Iran will continue to develop military capabilities that threaten US forces and US allies in the region. It also may increase harassment of US and allied warships and merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman.

Iran continues to develop, improve, and field a range of military capabilities that enable it to target US and allied military assets in the region and disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. These systems include ballistic missiles, unmanned explosive boats, naval mines, submarines and advanced torpedoes,armed and attack UAVs, antiship and land-attack cruise missiles, antiship ballistic missiles, and air defenses.

Iran has the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East and can strike targets as far as 2,000 kilometers from Iranís borders. Russiaís delivery of the SA-20c SAM system in 2016 provided Iran with its most advanced long-range air defense system. Iran is also domestically producing medium-range SAM systems and developing a long-range SAM.

In September 2018, Iran struck Kurdish groups in Iraq and ISIS in Syria with ballistic missiles in response to attacks inside Iran, demonstrating the increasing precision of Iranís missiles, as well as Iranís ability to use UAVs in conjunction with ballistic missiles.

We assess that unprofessional interactions conducted by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy against US ships in the Persian Gulf, which have been less frequent during the past year, could resume should Iran seek to project an image of strength in response to US pressure. Most IRGC interactions with US ships are professional, but in recent years the IRGC Navy has challenged US ships in the Persian Gulf and flown UAVs close to US aircraft carriers during flight operations.

Moreover, Iranian leaders since July have threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports.

Pages 29-31
https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/2019-ATA-SFR---SSCI.pdf


gina - 2/2/2019 at 06:10 PM

quote:
quote:
P.S. I think the intel community probably does have more info. on Iran than Trump has been given.


Well, there definitely could be sensitive and classified intelligence that isn't disclosed in an open hearing for Congress. BUT, to say that they have itel on Iran that they haven't given to Trump are you saying they 1) don't trust the President with such information 2) are purposefully keeping data from the President for what reason? I'm assuming you worded your statement correctly. I would certainly hope the intel community would never withhold information from the President.

Here is what Dan Coats said on Iran in his prepared opening statement:

quote:
Now, let me discuss Iran

The Iranian regime will continue pursuing regional ambitions and improved military capabilities, even while its own economy is weakening by the day.

Domestically, regime hardliners will be more emboldened to challenge rival centrists and we expect more unrest in Iran in the months ahead.

Tehran continues to sponsor terrorism as the recent European arrests of Iranian operatives plotting attacks in Europe demonstrate.

We expect Iran will continue supporting the Huthis in Yemen and Shia militants in Iraq, while developing indigenous military capabilities that threaten US forces and allies in the region.

Iran maintains the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East.

And while we do not believe Iran is currently undertaking the key activities we judge necessary to produce a nuclear device, Iranian officials have publicly threatened to push the boundaries of JCPOA restrictions if Iran does not gain the tangible financial benefits it expected from the deal.

Its efforts to consolidate its influence in Syria and arm Hizballah have prompted Israeli airstrikes; these actions underscore our concerns about the longterm trajectory of Iranian influence in the region and the risk of conflict escalation.

All four of these states Ė China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran Ėare advancing their cyber capabilities, which are relatively low-cost and growing in potency and severity.

https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Testimonies/2019-01-29-ATA-Ope ning-Statement_Final.pdf



And here is what the 2019 Global Threat Assessment said on Iran:

quote:
Iran

Iranís regional ambitions and improved military capabilities almost certainly will threaten US interests in the coming year, driven by Tehranís perception of increasing US, Saudi, and Israeli hostility, as well as continuing border insecurity, and the influence of hardliners.

Iranís Objectives in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen

We assess that Iran will attempt to translate battlefield gains in Iraq and Syria into long-term political, security, social, and economic influence while continuing to press Saudi Arabia and the UAE by supporting the Huthis in Yemen.

In Iraq, Iran-supported Popular Mobilization Committee-affiliated Shia militias remain the primary threat to US personnel, and we expect that threat to increase as the threat ISIS poses to the militias recedes, Iraqi Government formation concludes, some Iran-backed groups call for the United States to withdraw, and tension between Iran and the United States grows. We continue to watch for signs that the regime might direct its proxies and partners in Iraq to attack US interests.

Iranís efforts to consolidate its influence in Syria and arm Hizballah have prompted Israeli airstrikes as recently as January 2019 against Iranian positions within Syria and underscore our growing concern about the long-term trajectory of Iranian influence in the region and the risk that conflict will escalate.

Iranís retaliatory missile and UAV strikes on ISIS targets in Syria following the attack on an Iranian military parade in Ahvaz in September were most likely intended to send a message to potential adversaries, showing Tehranís resolve to retaliate when attacked and demonstrating Iranís improving military capabilities and ability to project force.

Iran continues to pursue permanent military bases and economic deals in Syria and probably wants to maintain a network of Shia foreign fighters there despite Israeli attacks on Iranian positions in Syria.

We assess that Iran seeks to avoid a major armed conflict with Israel. However, Israeli strikes that result in Iranian casualties increase the likelihood of Iranian conventional retaliation against Israel, judging from Syrian-based Iranian forcesí firing of rockets into the Golan Heights in May 2018 following an Israeli attack the previous month on Iranians at Tiyas Airbase in Syria.

In Yemen, Iranís support to the Huthis, including supplying ballistic missiles, risks escalating the conflict and poses a serious threat to US partners and interests in the region. Iran continues to provide support that enables Huthi attacks against shipping near the Bab el Mandeb Strait and land-based targets deep inside Saudi Arabia and the UAE, using ballistic missiles and UAVs.

Domestic Politics

Regime hardliners will be more emboldened to challenge rival centrists by undermining their domestic reform efforts and pushing a more confrontational posture toward the United States and its allies.

Centrist President Hasan Ruhani has garnered praise from hardliners with his more hostile posture toward Washington but will still struggle to address ongoing popular discontent. Nationwide protests, mostly focused on economic grievances, have continued to draw attention to the need for major economic reforms and unmet expectations for most Iranians. We expect more unrest in the months ahead, although the protests are likely to remain uncoordinated and lacking central leadership or broad support from major ethnic and political groups.

We assess that Tehran is prepared to take more aggressive security measures in response to renewed unrest while preferring to use nonlethal force.

Ruhaniís ability to reform the economy remains limited, given pervasive corruption, a weak banking sector, and a business climate that discourages foreign investment and trade. Military Modernization and Behavior Iran will continue to develop military capabilities that threaten US forces and US allies in the region. It also may increase harassment of US and allied warships and merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman.

Iran continues to develop, improve, and field a range of military capabilities that enable it to target US and allied military assets in the region and disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. These systems include ballistic missiles, unmanned explosive boats, naval mines, submarines and advanced torpedoes,armed and attack UAVs, antiship and land-attack cruise missiles, antiship ballistic missiles, and air defenses.

Iran has the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East and can strike targets as far as 2,000 kilometers from Iranís borders. Russiaís delivery of the SA-20c SAM system in 2016 provided Iran with its most advanced long-range air defense system. Iran is also domestically producing medium-range SAM systems and developing a long-range SAM.

In September 2018, Iran struck Kurdish groups in Iraq and ISIS in Syria with ballistic missiles in response to attacks inside Iran, demonstrating the increasing precision of Iranís missiles, as well as Iranís ability to use UAVs in conjunction with ballistic missiles.

We assess that unprofessional interactions conducted by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy against US ships in the Persian Gulf, which have been less frequent during the past year, could resume should Iran seek to project an image of strength in response to US pressure. Most IRGC interactions with US ships are professional, but in recent years the IRGC Navy has challenged US ships in the Persian Gulf and flown UAVs close to US aircraft carriers during flight operations.

Moreover, Iranian leaders since July have threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports.

Pages 29-31
https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/2019-ATA-SFR---SSCI.pdf




"Well, there definitely could be sensitive and classified intelligence that isn't disclosed in an open hearing for Congress. BUT, to say that they have itel on Iran that they haven't given to Trump are you saying they 1) don't trust the President with such information 2) are purposefully keeping data from the President for what reason? I'm assuming you worded your statement correctly. I would certainly hope the intel community would never withhold information from the President."

I am not saying they are withholding anything from him that is going on now, but I do know that they have more information due to their surveillance on Iran since at least 2002. Iranian intelligence also plays a role in Afghanistan. Luke Powell did an amazing photojournalism pictorial of Afghanistan. He went there prior to 9-11-01, and when he arrived he met some people at the hotel who asked what he was doing there. He said he was a photo journalist and was on vacation, they told him "nobody comes to Afghanistan on vacation" they further told him that the only people coming there were Iranian intelligence agents and asked if he was spying for them.

You will also recall that when Osama fled Afghanistan after the seige at Tora Bora and went to Pakistan at the decision of the people there with him, he sent his family members who were still there with him to Iran for safekeeping until things quieted down. Therefore, Iran has provided safe havens for some people for quite some time. The US knows this, the Saudis know this. The intelligence community, no doubt has monitored communications to the extent possible of Iran. Trump would not know all that they know. He would only be briefed on anything relevant to today that THEY think he needs to know. Intelligence works by information gathering and then piecing it together to decide what it means, if anything. They would not tell him everything they are working on, only what they think he needs to know about.

As to the intelligence community withholding information from a President, when it was Bush/Cheney in the White House, Cheney's briefing meetings were held at 4:30 a.m., Bush's were held separately at 7:30 a.m. It was widely believed Cheney was privy to things Bush was never told, making him look unknowing oftentimes. There is more than one faction/group even within the intelligence community. There are reportedly three groups. With compartmentalization there are things that go on that are not revealed even to a President. He is told what they think he needs to know about.


BrerRabbit - 2/3/2019 at 06:03 AM

Why do you always refer to Osama Bin Laden by his first name? Are you guys pals?


nebish - 2/3/2019 at 02:09 PM

You are right Gina, The President isn't going to know the depth and detail behind what they tell him, so yes, they do know more than the President. The assertion last week was that the President saw Iran as more of a threat, atleast in a nuclear sense, than the intelligence officials. And if they are briefing him what they believe he needs to know, as in, the gravest and most serious threats, then how could Trump take a position outside of what they have told him? It is one thing for you or I or anyone outside of government to read and form opinions on what might or might not be, but to be in the position of the President of the United States of America, how can he imply that he knows more than they do? Where would he get such information to formulate his opinion? Israel? I would certainly respect Israel's intelligence capabilities and wouldn't doubt that they might know things that we do not and vise-versa, however as President of this country I would put my faith in our people and our organizations to lead our way and it would be up to them to corroborate and share intel with foreign services to strengthen our own.


quote:


Donald J. Trump
‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

The Intelligence people seem to be extremely passive and naive when it comes to the dangers of Iran. They are wrong! When I became President Iran was making trouble all over the Middle East, and beyond. Since ending the terrible Iran Nuclear Deal, they are MUCH different, but....

quote:
....a source of potential danger and conflict. They are testing Rockets (last week) and more, and are coming very close to the edge. There economy is now crashing, which is the only thing holding them back. Be careful of Iran. Perhaps Intelligence should go back to school!



nebish - 2/3/2019 at 02:12 PM

In rereading that awful tweet from Trump, what may go unnoticed among the intel community bashing is that he says Iran was making trouble before he was President. Iran is still very much making trouble. No doubt the situation inside their country is different for one reason or another, but they remain very much the trouble makers.


BrerRabbit - 2/3/2019 at 07:58 PM

"They are testing Rockets"

Rockets. Who calls missiles "rockets" since the 1950s?
lol


nebish - 2/4/2019 at 05:06 PM

quote:
"They are testing Rockets"

Rockets. Who calls missiles "rockets" since the 1950s?
lol


He may've been referring to Iran's attempts to launch a satellite into space on a rocket as opposed to a ballistic missile. Normally there are plenty of inaccuracies and bad word selection by Trump, so it is only natural to question his choice of words.


gina - 2/4/2019 at 08:00 PM

quote:
"They are testing Rockets"

Rockets. Who calls missiles "rockets" since the 1950s?
lol


Trumpy, calls them rockets. That's why he referred to Kim Jung Un as "rocket man" before he met with him and realized they had a lot of common ground.


gina - 2/4/2019 at 08:01 PM

quote:
Why do you always refer to Osama Bin Laden by his first name? Are you guys pals?


Oh whippin' post!


gina - 2/4/2019 at 08:05 PM

quote:
You are right Gina, The President isn't going to know the depth and detail behind what they tell him, so yes, they do know more than the President. The assertion last week was that the President saw Iran as more of a threat, atleast in a nuclear sense, than the intelligence officials. And if they are briefing him what they believe he needs to know, as in, the gravest and most serious threats, then how could Trump take a position outside of what they have told him? It is one thing for you or I or anyone outside of government to read and form opinions on what might or might not be, but to be in the position of the President of the United States of America, how can he imply that he knows more than they do? Where would he get such information to formulate his opinion? Israel? I would certainly respect Israel's intelligence capabilities and wouldn't doubt that they might know things that we do not and vise-versa, however as President of this country I would put my faith in our people and our organizations to lead our way and it would be up to them to corroborate and share intel with foreign services to strengthen our own.


quote:


Donald J. Trump
‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

The Intelligence people seem to be extremely passive and naive when it comes to the dangers of Iran. They are wrong! When I became President Iran was making trouble all over the Middle East, and beyond. Since ending the terrible Iran Nuclear Deal, they are MUCH different, but....

quote:
....a source of potential danger and conflict. They are testing Rockets (last week) and more, and are coming very close to the edge. There economy is now crashing, which is the only thing holding them back. Be careful of Iran. Perhaps Intelligence should go back to school!





Your point is well taken. Trump was beseiged with the FAKE NEWS media before and even after his Presidency, so much so that people sympathetic to him came forward to try to tell him what they 'knew' from their sources about things ie. Brietbart, Alex Jones etc. Alex has contacts in govt., military so he always has interesting expose material. It could be clandestine, behind the scene sources that tell Trump things which he trusts more than some of the official people. With the high level military people who have come and gone in his administration, he may have learned to be more distrustful of 'official sources'.

Trump was also told he would not be allowed to have US troops on the Iraqi border "watch Iran" from Iraq.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/04/us-troops-do-not-have-permiss ion-to-watch-iran-says-baghdad

Other countries want their state/nation sovereignty respected.

[Edited on 2/4/2019 by gina]


BrerRabbit - 2/4/2019 at 08:58 PM


quote:
quote:
Why do you always refer to Osama Bin Laden by his first name? Are you guys pals?

quote:
Oh whippin' post!




It is just flat out creepy that you idolize Bin Laden.




gina - 2/4/2019 at 09:35 PM

I do not idolize any man or woman. I just have a different opinion of him than most others who just accepted the lame stream main stream media version of who he was/is. I did not agree with some of the things he did but there are questions I could not answer either, such as 'where is the battlefield' when people are killed in their homes and towns over there in other lands because of some half-baked intelligence analysis of who was supposed to be there and how significant/or bad they were etc.

I differed in the idea of a global caliphate but his vision was/is years ahead of everybody elses because when the anti-Christ rises and wants to enslave the world people will be forced to admit that we ARE in a holy war. He just saw it years ahead of everybody else and his focus was not the anti-Christ, but westerners who he felt were living in ways against the guidance of God and the prophets and messengers. He said we were already in a Holy War and everybody said no we're not, he just wants to start one because he is a terrorist....


BrerRabbit - 2/4/2019 at 10:04 PM

quote:
. . .his vision was/is years ahead. . .


More like a thousand years behind, like you he is a throwback to the Dark Ages.


MartinD28 - 2/4/2019 at 10:35 PM

quote:
quote:
"They are testing Rockets"

Rockets. Who calls missiles "rockets" since the 1950s?
lol


Trumpy, calls them rockets. That's why he referred to Kim Jung Un as "rocket man" before he met with him and realized they had a lot of common ground.


Common ground = KJU being a dictator and DJT being a dictator wannabe. Both fascinated with nuclear arms. Both put their own self interests ahead of the country they serve. Gina is right - lots of common ground.


2112 - 2/5/2019 at 03:19 AM

quote:
quote:
quote:
"They are testing Rockets"

Rockets. Who calls missiles "rockets" since the 1950s?
lol


Trumpy, calls them rockets. That's why he referred to Kim Jung Un as "rocket man" before he met with him and realized they had a lot of common ground.


Common ground = KJU being a dictator and DJT being a dictator wannabe. Both fascinated with nuclear arms. Both put their own self interests ahead of the country they serve. Gina is right - lots of common ground.


They also both lie more often then they tell the truth.


BoytonBrother - 2/5/2019 at 03:14 PM

quote:
there are questions I could not answer either, such as 'where is the battlefield' when people are killed in their homes and towns over there in other lands because of some half-baked intelligence analysis of who was supposed to be there and how significant/or bad they were etc.


Itís incredibly sad when that happens, and this type evil unfortunately exists all over the world for thousands of years. Iím sure you know about Ghengis Khan....imagine living through his reign in that area to see your family slaughtered by him for no reason. Therefore, isnít the point to NOT be like that, so as not to create the same pain and suffering? Your guy chose to inflict the same horror and evil on innocent people. Regardless of his ideology that might sound good to you, he chose evil, just like those with the hallf-baked intelligence. ďWhere is the battlefieldĒ is your way of wanting to seek revenge.


gina - 2/7/2019 at 01:03 AM

I never said I agreed with the idea of attacking common people in public places. He felt the battleground is everywhere because of the actions our military (includes intel people), killing people in their houses, in towns where there are non-fighters who are injured and killed in the crossfire or debris.

If we assassinate someone outside a mosque do they have the right to do that here in front of a public building?

Most would say no. They believe we are the only ones who can determine who should live or die, and we give ourselves the authority to carry out these killings. I say it all needs to stop. You can go back to Cain and Abel if you want to look at revenge. But the guidance to ALL people in the Bible, and the Quran is that you can only take revenge upon specific people who have people specific to you, ie. a relative. Nobody was meant to engage in these long protracted wars killing people who did not do anything to anybody.

God himself will be the one to levy revenge. He declared "vengeance is mine" because he is the ONLY one who knows all things, therefore he is the only one who levy true justice. He destroys people in numerous ways, with wind, water, fire, earthquakes, volcanoes, allowing other disasters to happen. He doesn't needs nukes or man made weapons. He is just fine with HIS arsenal and has used it over and over again, but mankind does not learn even from thousands of years ago, the nations destroyed. Nobody seems to learn.






[Edited on 2/7/2019 by gina]


BrerRabbit - 2/13/2019 at 05:40 AM

Maybe it is because they think pigs are so dirty that they come up with so much hogwash?


Bhawk - 2/17/2019 at 05:39 PM

Remember the time that the POTUS contradicted the entire intelligence community in an attempt to embarrass them?

Yeah, me neither. The news comes so fast these days everything is forgotten as soon as it happens.

We'll never turn back from this. Hope everyone realizes that.


BoytonBrother - 2/18/2019 at 02:03 PM

quote:
Remember the time that the POTUS contradicted the entire intelligence community in an attempt to embarrass them?

Yeah, me neither. The news comes so fast these days everything is forgotten as soon as it happens.


I don't know about this. I remember everything, and I bet I'm not the only one.

quote:
We'll never turn back from this. Hope everyone realizes that.


I have a more optimistic outlook. I think he is seen by everyone in Washington as a black cloud causing distress in every corner. Even Trump supporters are subconciously exhausted from the constant fighting they feel they have to do on Trump's behalf. I don't see anyone welcoming this "style" ever again after he's gone. It's hard to see this outcome now, while the black cloud is still looming large, but after the smoke clears, we'll all realize that poisonous cancers like Trump can never be welcomed ever again. Throughout history, every country experiences a dark period of evil tyrannical leadership...this is ours.

We can thank people like KCJimmy, who so graciously admitted that he knew in advance that Trump would be bad for this country, but voted him in anyway because liberals were mean. Imagine destroying your country on purpose because people hurt your feelings.

Trump's own choice for FBI Director was so concerned about his number of Russian contacts and erratic behavior, that they considered removing him from office and wearing a wire....this is the quality of judgment by the right.


This thread come from : Hittin' The Web with the Allman Brothers Band
http://allmanbrothersband.com/

Url of this website:
http://allmanbrothersband.com//modules.php?op=modload&name=XForum&file=viewthread&fid=127&tid=147717