Thread: President Trump has the U.S. Economy growing at the strongest rate in over 13 years

Muleman1994 - 7/28/2018 at 12:45 AM

US Economy Grew At 4.1-Percent Rate in Second Quarter Of 2018
07/27/2018

The U.S. economy grew at the strongest rate in over 13 years in the second quarter of 2018, matching economists’ high growth expectations heading into Friday’s announcement.

Gross domestic product — the total value of all final goods and services in the U.S. economy — grew at a 4.1-percent rate in the second quarter, propelled by an increase in consumer spending, exports, federal and local government spending and business investment, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

In reference to 2017 second-quarter growth numbers, this year’s look stellar. Economic output grew just 2.8 percent in the second quarter of 2017.

Economists expected second quarter figures to hit levels as high as 5 percent, which would have been the highest second-quarter growth rate since 2005. Preliminary numbers generally pegged growth close to Friday’s actual figures.

President Donald Trump promised the “best financial numbers on the planet” leading into Friday’s rollout, adding that it was great to have the U.S. “winning again.”

Economists attributed the president’s tariffs for up to 1 percent of the total expected growth in the second quarter leading up to Friday. The consensus was that an increase in consumer spending from the first to the second quarter, along with a narrowing trade deficit, helped propel the economy to higher levels of growth. U.S. exports rose in the second quarter, while imports remained relatively stagnant.

The expectations of a narrowing trade deficit were spot on, with net exports adding 1.06 percentage points to the 4.1-percent GDP growth. Overall, net exports rose robustly.

Consumer spending also fell in-line with predictions, with personal-consumption spending rising at a 4-percent annual rate in the second quarter. As a percentage of GDP, consumer spending accounts for over 66 percent of the nation’s economy.


sckeys - 7/28/2018 at 01:26 AM

This is great. We have to remember that Larry Kudlow said that this would be debt free. If it lasts 6 more yrs then he will have been a better president that Obama. If it ends like the last republikan tenure, well...

[Edited on 7/28/2018 by sckeys]


Muleman1994 - 7/28/2018 at 01:34 AM

quote:
This is great. We have to remember that Larry Kudlow said that this would be debt free. If it lasts 6 more yrs then he will have been a better president that Obama. If it ends like the last republikan tenure, well...

[Edited on 7/28/2018 by sckeys]



"If" is not a strong economy.

Massive GDP growth, significant drop in trade deficit and historically low unemployment along with wage increases is a strong economy.

By their innate nature economies are cyclical. Currently all indicators are that the U.S. economy will continue to grow for the foreseeable future.


[Edited on 7/28/2018 by Muleman1994]


sckeys - 7/28/2018 at 02:01 AM

I agree. The test will be making it last. WHEN, not if, at the end of the term it’s still as strong as he found it, he can say that he was in fact a better prez than Obama. He will then be telling the truth.


pops42 - 7/28/2018 at 03:41 AM

THIS IS ANOTHER LIE by trump and muleturd. Trump still has the smell of putins balls on his breath.


OriginalGoober - 7/28/2018 at 12:10 PM

quote:
THIS IS ANOTHER LIE by trump and muleturd. Trump still has the smell of putins balls on his breath.


Are you on public assistance or a monthly fixed income? How else can you be such a blockhead?


IPowrie - 7/28/2018 at 02:17 PM

Are wages really rising? I had a coworker go speak to management about a raise and was told to go find a new job if he wants more money. He's put in 40 years at this company and hasn't had a raise in over 15 years. A lot of people like him where I work and they won't leave because starting over somewhere else would mean giving up all there vacation time.

Also since Trump has been president my year end bonus has been lower. So thanks Trump.


Muleman1994 - 7/28/2018 at 02:20 PM

quote:
Are wages really rising? I had a coworker go speak to management about a raise and was told to go find a new job if he wants more money. He's put in 40 years at this company and hasn't had a raise in over 15 years. A lot of people like him where I work and they won't leave because starting over somewhere else would mean giving up all there vacation time.

Also since Trump has been president my year end bonus has been lower. So thanks Trump.



Making the poor choice to continue to work there is your and your co-workers fault.
Trying to blame President Trump for your poor choices is weak.


Muleman1994 - 7/28/2018 at 02:21 PM

quote:
quote:
THIS IS ANOTHER LIE by trump and muleturd. Trump still has the smell of putins balls on his breath.


Are you on public assistance or a monthly fixed income? How else can you be such a blockhead?



Pops has several difficulties one of which is that his mind, such as it is, is owned by the corrupt liberal media and Pops is incapable of separating facts from the that which has been proven wrong time after time:


Economic ‘Experts’ Predicted 4-Percent Growth Would Never Happen
07/27/2018

The United States hit its highest economic growth rate in over 13 years on Friday — something many economists predicted would never happen.

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew to a 4.1-percent rate in the second quarter of 2018, compared to just 2.8 percent in the second quarter of 2017.

Meanwhile, CNN ran a headline in October of 2016 claiming, “Donald Trump promises 4-percent growth, but economists say no way,” and the Los Angeles Times ran a column with an even more dire prediction — that Trump was “dreaming” to think he could hit a 3-percent growth rate.

“An aging population and stagnant productivity could put Donald Trump’s goal of 3.5-percent economic growth out of reach,” the Wall Street Journal similarly wrote in December of 2016.

Businessman and Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban predicted that the markets would tank if Trump were elected president in 2016.

And, of course, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned that the economy would fare quite poorly under her 2016 opponent.

“Just like he shouldn’t have his finger on the button, he shouldn’t have his hands on our economy,” Clinton said during the election.

New York Times columnist Paul Krugman and Nobel Prize-winning economist said, "Now comes the mother of all adverse effects — and what it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work," Krugman wrote. "So, we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow.
But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened."

The losers spoke, and President Trump proved them all wrong.



[Edited on 7/28/2018 by Muleman1994]


IF - 7/28/2018 at 03:14 PM

Trump’s Numbers on ‘Amazing’ Economy Sometimes Don’t Add Up

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/27/business/economy/trump-gdp-fact-check.ht ml


BrerRabbit - 7/28/2018 at 03:35 PM

quote:
By their innate nature economies are cyclical.


That is correct. Economic fluctuations have very little if anything to do with who is in the White House.


Muleman1994 - 7/28/2018 at 03:42 PM

quote:
Trump’s Numbers on ‘Amazing’ Economy Sometimes Don’t Add Up

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/27/business/economy/trump-gdp-fact-check.ht ml




So says the leading fake news media. Ask their boy Krugman.
The actual facts are undeniable.


Muleman1994 - 7/28/2018 at 03:44 PM

quote:
quote:
By their innate nature economies are cyclical.


That is correct. Economic fluctuations have very little if anything to do with who is in the White House.



Wrong.
Under Obama the U.S. economy was anemic at best.
Under President Trump the U.S. economy is better than it has been in decades.


BrerRabbit - 7/28/2018 at 04:25 PM

I will grant that surface ripples in the economy could be affected by shifting winds of volatility and confidence due to superficial changes in politics or who won the Superbowl, however the deep tides and currents of market forces are years and decades in their formation.


pops42 - 7/28/2018 at 04:37 PM

quote:
quote:
THIS IS ANOTHER LIE by trump and muleturd. Trump still has the smell of putins balls on his breath.


Are you on public assistance or a monthly fixed income? How else can you be such a blockhead?
Says the dummy, who believes everything trump and fox news belches out.


pops42 - 7/28/2018 at 04:43 PM

quote:
quote:
quote:
THIS IS ANOTHER LIE by trump and muleturd. Trump still has the smell of putins balls on his breath.


Are you on public assistance or a monthly fixed income? How else can you be such a blockhead?



Pops has several difficulties one of which is that his mind, such as it is, is owned by the corrupt liberal media and Pops is incapable of separating facts from the that which has been proven wrong time after time:


Economic ‘Experts’ Predicted 4-Percent Growth Would Never Happen
07/27/2018

The United States hit its highest economic growth rate in over 13 years on Friday — something many economists predicted would never happen.

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew to a 4.1-percent rate in the second quarter of 2018, compared to just 2.8 percent in the second quarter of 2017.

Meanwhile, CNN ran a headline in October of 2016 claiming, “Donald Trump promises 4-percent growth, but economists say no way,” and the Los Angeles Times ran a column with an even more dire prediction — that Trump was “dreaming” to think he could hit a 3-percent growth rate.

“An aging population and stagnant productivity could put Donald Trump’s goal of 3.5-percent economic growth out of reach,” the Wall Street Journal similarly wrote in December of 2016.

Businessman and Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban predicted that the markets would tank if Trump were elected president in 2016.

And, of course, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned that the economy would fare quite poorly under her 2016 opponent.

“Just like he shouldn’t have his finger on the button, he shouldn’t have his hands on our economy,” Clinton said during the election.

New York Times columnist Paul Krugman and Nobel Prize-winning economist said, "Now comes the mother of all adverse effects — and what it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work," Krugman wrote. "So, we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow.
But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened."

The losers spoke, and President Trump proved them all wrong.



[Edited on 7/28/2018 by Muleman1994]
The GDP grew at a rate that exceeded 4.1 at 4x during Obama presidency, but you are too stupid and lazy to do the research. You support a traitor who got on his knees in front of the world, to lick the boots of a sworn enemy of the United States. You are a loser and a disgrace to this country.


2112 - 7/28/2018 at 05:59 PM

You forgot to mention the exploding deficit. The deficit is at the highest since 2012. It is set to exceed $1 trillion per year for the first time in a non-recession/recovery year.

I remember fondly when the GOP were concerned with such things. What happened? What happened to the fiscally conservative party?

Trump is borrowing money from China to hand out to the farmers that are being hurt by his tariffs meant to punish China. Yeah boy, real solid economic policy there. The only way you can consider that a sound economic policy is to temporarily keep a few red state farmers happy until after the midterm elections, at the cost of about $100 per taxpayer. That's a lot of money that each of us are paying for a political stunt, and eats up a big portion of your tax cut savings, unless you are extremely wealthy.


pops42 - 7/28/2018 at 06:09 PM

quote:
You forgot to mention the exploding deficit. The deficit is at the highest since 2012. It is set to exceed $1 trillion per year for the first time in a non-recession/recovery year.

I remember fondly when the GOP were concerned with such things. What happened? What happened to the fiscally conservative party?

Trump is borrowing money from China to hand out to the farmers that are being hurt by his tariffs meant to punish China. Yeah boy, real solid economic policy there. The only way you can consider that a sound economic policy is to temporarily keep a few red state farmers happy until after the midterm elections, at the cost of about $100 per taxpayer. That's a lot of money that each of us are paying for a political stunt, and eats up a big portion of your tax cut savings, unless you are extremely wealthy.
The 12 billion dollar band aid trump is giving the soybean farmers wont even cover their losses for 2017, caused by trumps tariffs.


jkeller - 7/28/2018 at 06:11 PM

It isn't the highest rate in 13 years, it is the highest in 13 qurters. Thanks Obama!

https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-chance-from-preceding-pe riod-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/


And, as the deficit rises, inflation will soon destroy even that. Thanks Trump, Ryan and McConnell!


IPowrie - 7/28/2018 at 06:34 PM

quote:
quote:
Are wages really rising? I had a coworker go speak to management about a raise and was told to go find a new job if he wants more money. He's put in 40 years at this company and hasn't had a raise in over 15 years. A lot of people like him where I work and they won't leave because starting over somewhere else would mean giving up all there vacation time.

Also since Trump has been president my year end bonus has been lower. So thanks Trump.



Making the poor choice to continue to work there is your and your co-workers fault.
Trying to blame President Trump for your poor choices is weak.



I don't blame Trump I blame the company. I believe the biggest mistake this company made was going public in the 90s. Private owners treated the workers better. I'm always looking for a new job because factory work sucks. The old timers just get fed up and walk off the job and retire.


MartinD28 - 7/28/2018 at 07:27 PM

quote:
You forgot to mention the exploding deficit. The deficit is at the highest since 2012. It is set to exceed $1 trillion per year for the first time in a non-recession/recovery year.

I remember fondly when the GOP were concerned with such things. What happened? What happened to the fiscally conservative party?

Trump is borrowing money from China to hand out to the farmers that are being hurt by his tariffs meant to punish China. Yeah boy, real solid economic policy there. The only way you can consider that a sound economic policy is to temporarily keep a few red state farmers happy until after the midterm elections, at the cost of about $100 per taxpayer. That's a lot of money that each of us are paying for a political stunt, and eats up a big portion of your tax cut savings, unless you are extremely wealthy.

Good post and factual.

Somewhere along the way Russian Don must have skipped taking Economics 101 while at Wharton. He likes to brag about Wharton and his high level of intelligence. Maybe if he would have understood the principles of econ relative to tariffs, trade wars, and inflation, he would have been better prepared to make policies that didn't hurt the very people that put him in office. No better way than to lose those independent voters than to turn around and f them in their wallets trying to play strong man. If only he'd play strong man with Vlad, he may earn some credibility instead of bending over to pleasure his Russian brother.


BrerRabbit - 7/28/2018 at 08:36 PM

Nice work. Swift, clean, efficient. Ought to keep him under his little shipwreck at the corner of the aquarium for a while.


sixty8 - 7/28/2018 at 09:54 PM

The numbers are good but inflated by a gigantic sell off of soybeans and other goods to China and Europe before the tariffs took effect. The next two quarters will be a better barometer as to where we are headed. I remember things looking peachy around this time in W Bush's tenure and by the end of it we were tanking and into a giant recession. Time will tell. Most people I know haven't really felt any gain from this robust economy. Those in the very upper middle class and above are loving life for sure. Those in the middle to lower middle class and below either feel the same as they did before or worse. Different perspectives from different people depending on how they have been effected. Some are happy and some are not happy and frustrated. I guess we will start to find out in November if there are more people who feel better off than there are people who don't feel any better off.


Muleman1994 - 7/28/2018 at 10:51 PM

quote:
It isn't the highest rate in 13 years, it is the highest in 13 qurters. Thanks Obama!

https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-chance-from-preceding-pe riod-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/


And, as the deficit rises, inflation will soon destroy even that. Thanks Trump, Ryan and McConnell!


A flat-out lie.

The Obama administration claimed a high (artificial) GDP rate for one quarter in 2014.
As usual the Obama administration falsified the data by adding in a made-up rate to include "intellectual property development" for which they were skewered but all the legitimate economists and Obama and his liars immediately stopped their false reporting.


Muleman1994 - 7/28/2018 at 10:53 PM

The incredible performance of the U.S. economy under President Trump is directly attributable to his and the Republican’s Tax Cut and Jobs Act and the President’s administration reversal of thousands of the regulations imposed on American businesses and people during Obama’s failed administration.

As soon as our country got the amateur out of the office and installed a professional the U.S. economy took off like a rocket and the lefties are crying because the just do not understand how they could have been so wrong.


It's the Trump economy, stupid

Two stories appeared on the front page and above the fold in the New York Times over the ‎weekend. The first was about the seemingly never-ending Russia probe. The second was about the Labor Department reporting the lowest unemployment rate in nearly 20 years. Which of these two stories do you think American voters care more about?

It’s not just the 3.9 percent unemployment rate that is worth celebrating. The growth rate of the economy over the last four quarters was just under 3 percent, a level that almost all liberal economists said was impossible to achieve and yet with Donald Trump after one year in office, here we are. In just more than one year in the White House, he has achieved a growth rate that is higher than Obama was able to achieve in eight years.

Oh, and by the way, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimated last week that growth in April hit 4 percent. Meanwhile, a survey of manufacturers finds that more than 90 percent are bullish about the future. There are now an estimated 6 million more jobs than available workers with the skills to fill them.

The New York Times wondered last week whether we are going to see inflation rising from 2 percent as a result of the surging demand for workers. The Washington Post reported that some blue collar workers are now getting signing bonuses of up to $25,000. Who do these workers think they are? Derek Jeter?

On Friday, Obama’s White House chief of staff, Valerie Jarrett (yes, she’s back) ‎said on CNN that Obama deserves most of the credit for the boon and this is the left’s new riff. What else could she say? The previous administration’s staffers are genetically incapable of admitting that Trump deserves credit for anything.

This storyline that Obama is responsible for the bullish job market might have a sliver of credibility if it weren’t for several inconvenient facts. First, almost every liberal analyst who now says that Obama deserves the credit was one who told us that Trump would surely crash the economy and the stock market if he won the election.

So let’s get this straight: Trump’s policies are to blame if the economy tanks, but he gets no credit if it soars? That’s heads I win, tails you lose logic. Second, the economy was slowing down at the end of Obama presidency. The last year Obama was in office, the economy grew by 1.6 percent, which is barely staying out of inflation.

Then there’s the most inconvenient problem with the spin that Obama deserves the credit for the surge in employment and growth. It would be plausible if Trump continued on with Obama’s policies. But instead, he has systematically overturned every Obama initiative, from the tax rate increases to the climate change treaty, to the pro-drilling and pro-coal energy policies to the deregulation, to the spending priorities. This is what has infuriated Democrats. How could Obama be responsible for a spurt of growth under Trump when he’s shifted Obamanomics into reverse?

Once during the campaign, Trump asked Larry Kudlow and me how we could get much faster growth. We half-jokingly told Trump that the “key was to look at everything Obama has done and do exactly the opposite.”‎ That’s pretty much what the Trump administration has done. And boom!

One last point: The supercharged economy points to the absurdity of the Democrats primary policy goal, which is to ‎repeal the Trump tax cut. They say it is mainly for the rich and for big corporations and working-class Americans have received only, in the words of House minority leader Nancy Pelosi, “crumbs.”

But the new jobs report only underscores that it would be hard to point to a bigger public policy success story in recent times. The left’s big idea one the economy is to cancel the tax cuts. Really?

Would they also ask the 5 million workers who’ve gotten bonuses and pay hikes to give the money back? Would they rather that Apple not bring $300 billion back to America? Would they prefer that Walmart and Costco not raise their minimum salaries to $13 an hour?

Would they take America back to the highest corporate tax rate in the world? Would they rather the stock market give up the $7 trillion in increased wealth since Trump was elected? If the Democrats take back Congress, do they intend to raise taxes on 26 million small businesses? Inquiring voters want to know.

http://thehill.com/opinion/finance/386482-its-the-trump-economy-stupid



jkeller - 7/28/2018 at 11:19 PM

quote:
quote:
It isn't the highest rate in 13 years, it is the highest in 13 qurters. Thanks Obama!

https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-chance-from-preceding-pe riod-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/


And, as the deficit rises, inflation will soon destroy even that. Thanks Trump, Ryan and McConnell!


A flat-out lie.

The Obama administration claimed a high (artificial) GDP rate for one quarter in 2014.
As usual the Obama administration falsified the data by adding in a made-up rate to include "intellectual property development" for which they were skewered but all the legitimate economists and Obama and his liars immediately stopped their false reporting.




You calling someone a liar is funny as nobody lies on here moethan you.

I didn't make up that chart that you didn't look at.

Try this one:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-gdp-growth-touted-as-historic-by-trump-is-t otally-standard/

President Trump on Friday touted the U.S. economy's 4.1 percent growth in the second quarter as "an economic turnaround of historic proportions." He also predicted the spurt will be sustained and even accelerate.

Yet few economists outside the administration agree with that bullish forecast. Here's a look at Mr. Trump claims, and the facts:

U.S. GDP growth hit 4.1 percent in the second quarter
Trump touts "amazing" economic growth figures
"We've accomplished an economic turnaround of historic proportions," Mr. Trump remarked Friday at the White House shortly after the Commerce Department released its GDP report.

In fact, Mr. Trump didn't inherit a fixer-upper economy.

The U.S. economy just entered its 10th year of growth, a recovery that began under President Barack Obama, who inherited the Great Recession. The data show that the falling unemployment rate and gains in home values reflect the duration of the recovery, rather than any major changes made since 2017 by the Trump administration.

While Mr. Trump praised the 4.1 percent annual growth rate in the second quarter, the economy exceeded that level four times during the Obama presidency: in 2009, 2011 and twice in 2014.

In purely numerical terms, a larger shift took place in the second quarter of 2014, when the economy went from contracting by 1 percent to growing at a rate of 5.1 percent.

gdp-2009-line.png
But quarterly figures are volatile, and strength in one quarter can be reversed in the next. President Obama never achieved the 3 percent annual growth that President Trump hopes to see, though he came close. The economy grew 2.9 percent in 2015.

The current economic expansion, which began in June 2009, is now the second-longest on record -- but it is also the weakest. The GDP revisions the Commerce Department announced Friday didn't change that narrative. Annual growth has averaged just 2.2 percent since mid-2009 through the end of last year, the same as previously reported.

"One of the biggest wins in the report, and it is, indeed a big one, is that the trade deficit — very dear to my heart because we've been ripped off by the world — has dropped," Mr. Trump said Friday.

Mr. Trump is correct that a lower trade deficit spurred growth in the April-June quarter, but the reason for that isn't necessarily positive.

The president has been floating plans to slap import taxes on hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign goods, which has led to retaliatory tariffs by foreign governments on U.S. goods.

This threat of an escalating trade war has led many foreign companies to stockpile U.S. goods before any tariffs hit. That caused a temporary boost in U.S. exports, helping to fuel economic growth.

But Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial, said the gains from rising U.S. exports in the second quarter will not be repeated.


"These numbers are very, very sustainable. It's not a one-time shot," Mr. Trump said Friday.

It's impossible to predict the future, but economists warn that the figures seen this quarter will not be easy to replicate, or even come near.

The economy faces two significant structural drags that could keep growth closer to 2 percent than 3 percent: An aging population, which means fewer people are working and more are retired, and weak productivity growth, which means that those who are working aren't increasing their output as quickly as in the past.

Both of those factors are largely beyond Mr. Trump's control.

The labor force could get a boost from higher participation—that is, if more people who are currently on the sidelines re-enter the labor force. But enticing those people back into the workforce could require a combination of higher pay, better jobs or some other factor.

© 2018 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.


Muleman1994 - 7/28/2018 at 11:46 PM

^ CBS is corrupt liberal media.
Your post is rejected as BS. Did you notice CBS offered no sources for their opinion piece?

Try learning the actual facts son.
Maybe then you will not be just another a far-left loser.

Thanks to President Trump the U.S. economy is rocking and the lefties just can't handle it.


StratDal - 7/29/2018 at 12:07 AM

quote:
^ CBS is corrupt liberal media.
Your post is rejected as BS. Did you notice CBS offered no sources for their opinion piece?

Try learning the actual facts son.
Maybe then you will not be just another a far-left loser.

Thanks to President Trump the U.S. economy is rocking and the lefties just can't handle it.



As has been discussed before, economic cycles run in vacuums (don't forget the economy was on an upswing the last few years of President Obama's 2nd term). Get back to me next year and if things are humming along, then I'll give President Trump his just due.


cyclone88 - 7/29/2018 at 12:23 AM

quote:
Somewhere along the way Russian Don must have skipped taking Economics 101 while at Wharton. He likes to brag about Wharton and his high level of intelligence. Maybe if he would have understood the principles of econ relative to tariffs, trade wars, and inflation, he would have been better prepared to make policies that didn't hurt the very people that put him in office.


Since he spent his 1st 2 years at Fordham in NYC, perhaps he didn't take Econ 101. He transferred & graduated from Wharton, but he never attended its prestigious MBA program.


MartinD28 - 7/29/2018 at 01:07 AM

quote:
quote:
Somewhere along the way Russian Don must have skipped taking Economics 101 while at Wharton. He likes to brag about Wharton and his high level of intelligence. Maybe if he would have understood the principles of econ relative to tariffs, trade wars, and inflation, he would have been better prepared to make policies that didn't hurt the very people that put him in office.


Since he spent his 1st 2 years at Fordham in NYC, perhaps he didn't take Econ 101. He transferred & graduated from Wharton, but he never attended its prestigious MBA program.

That might explain the basics, but one would think that somewhere along the way he would have taken a Principle Of Econ Course. Of course he probably thought he knew more than the textbooks, dismisses history, and could take a lesson by listening to someone like real economist such as Robert Shiller (A Nobel Prize economist).

Then again, Trump has "the great Larry Kudlow" iin his stable as top economic advisor. Kudlow is a free trade advocate / free maket capatilist...so it begs the question of who Trump is listening to more than the mirror. With that said, Kudlow is not so great on his economic forecasts.

http://time.com/money/5197470/trump-pick-kudlow-predictions/

Look at the results so far on Trumps tariffs and our trading partners' retaliation. A good starting point are states Trump carried and now feeling the impact - North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. We can mention Harley Davidson and soybean farmers as directly impacted to the negative.


Muleman1994 - 7/29/2018 at 01:25 AM

quote:
quote:
quote:
Somewhere along the way Russian Don must have skipped taking Economics 101 while at Wharton. He likes to brag about Wharton and his high level of intelligence. Maybe if he would have understood the principles of econ relative to tariffs, trade wars, and inflation, he would have been better prepared to make policies that didn't hurt the very people that put him in office.


Since he spent his 1st 2 years at Fordham in NYC, perhaps he didn't take Econ 101. He transferred & graduated from Wharton, but he never attended its prestigious MBA program.

That might explain the basics, but one would think that somewhere along the way he would have taken a Principle Of Econ Course. Of course he probably thought he knew more than the textbooks, dismisses history, and could take a lesson by listening to someone like real economist such as Robert Shiller (A Nobel Prize economist).

Then again, Trump has "the great Larry Kudlow" iin his stable as top economic advisor. Kudlow is a free trade advocate / free maket capatilist...so it begs the question of who Trump is listening to more than the mirror. With that said, Kudlow is not so great on his economic forecasts.

http://time.com/money/5197470/trump-pick-kudlow-predictions/

Look at the results so far on Trumps tariffs and our trading partners' retaliation. A good starting point are states Trump carried and now feeling the impact - North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. We can mention Harley Davidson and soybean farmers as directly impacted to the negative.



The whole "Trump's Trade Wars" is corrupt liberal media crap.
You forgot to mention that the U.S. soybean farmers were dancing with joy in their fields when:

Trade war fears fizzle as Trump strikes deal with EU

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/jul/25/donald-trump-strikes-trade -deal-eu/


cyclone88 - 7/29/2018 at 01:57 AM

quote:
That might explain the basics, but one would think that somewhere along the way he would have taken a Principle Of Econ Course. Of course he probably thought he knew more than the textbooks, dismisses history, and could take a lesson by listening to someone like real economist such as Robert Shiller (A Nobel Prize economist).

Then again, Trump has "the great Larry Kudlow" iin his stable as top economic advisor. Kudlow is a free trade advocate / free maket capatilist...so it begs the question of who Trump is listening to more than the mirror. With that said, Kudlow is not so great on his economic forecasts.

http://time.com/money/5197470/trump-pick-kudlow-predictions/

Look at the results so far on Trumps tariffs and our trading partners' retaliation. A good starting point are states Trump carried and now feeling the impact - North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. We can mention Harley Davidson and soybean farmers as directly impacted to the negative.


Gosh, I haven't thought about Reaganomics since...well, the 1980s when Trump, having amassed so much debt with zero equity was preparing for his 1st bankruptcy. The money article doesn't go back far enough to note all of Kudlow's prediction misses, but it did note that Kudlow had an admirable TV presence. That's good enough for the man who only goes by what he sees in the mirror.


jkeller - 7/29/2018 at 02:53 AM

quote:
^ CBS is corrupt liberal media.
Your post is rejected as BS. Did you notice CBS offered no sources for their opinion piece?

Try learning the actual facts son.
Maybe then you will not be just another a far-left loser.

Thanks to President Trump the U.S. economy is rocking and the lefties just can't handle it.



Nic try, but not liking a source does not invalidate it. This is especially true as you started this thread with an unsourced article.

Try again.


BoytonBrother - 7/29/2018 at 04:24 AM

Cool thread about Americans accepting treason in exchange for a good economy.


nebish - 7/29/2018 at 11:44 AM

It's a good figure, but a consensus of financial people I have heard have been expecting a big GDP 2nd quarter for months. Revisions can be key as well. 4th qrt '17 was originally reported as 2.6, then revised to 2.5 before ultimately being revised to 2.9 on the 4th and final revision. Q1 '18 was expected to be weak as it often is (revised down to 2%) and 2nd qrt was expected to be strong, which at 4.1% is strong. It will be interesting to see where the revisions on it go. Revisions do not get the headlines the initial release gets. Analysts were expecting anywhere from 3.5-5.1% Q2.

As many have said here, and some of the quoted articles state, a good quarterly number here or there isn't what is needed. We need sustained 3% growth to increase government revenue in the face of higher debt and deficit spending. Obviously it is very debatable (and political) if that kind of annual figure is attainable and sustainable.

Did a boost in higher soybean exports occur and move GDP higher? I can see that. Year-to-date soybean exports are quite a bit higher 2018 compared to 2017. While some have said the reason for this is distributors stocked up to beat the China tariff, others have explained that the drop in the commodity price incentivized other nations to increase their purchases. China's soybean demand is unmatched for sure, but there are other nations the US can sell soybeans to and those markets could be expanded. It is just a matter of what the price for the crop is, with China's retaliatory tariff on US imports, their encouragement to spur more domestic Chinese growth along with increasing purchases from other soy producing countries who will likely be increasing their own output to meet new higher demand all will continue to have negative impact on the commodity price.

Here is an idea...China is accused of trans-shipping steel and aluminum into the US market. This is because there are already 20+ tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum products coming into the US market so China ships it's product to a host of countries so it can then be imported in the US via that country and therefore tariff free. This is where the latest steel and aluminum tariff thing comes from. Well, US exporters of soybeans can do the same thing really to enter the Chinese market tariff free. I would have to think these kind of shenanigans have been going on in global trade forever. Next thing you know China will be putting tariffs on South Korean soybeans because they are suspected of trans-shipping US exports.

The US government has programs for US workers displaced by trade related job losses, so in that vein it could be entirely benign that assistance extended to farmers hurt by a trade issue. To some everything has to be politically motivated I suppose. Maybe it is and maybe it isn't. But offering aid to individuals negatively effected by US trade policy is standard practice.

Perhaps the soy crop and related export in this country has grown too large and both small time farmers and corporate giants have become too dependent on it. The growth in the US soy crop has grown enormously in the last 30 years. There is something to be said for diversification in all walks of life, it applies to farming as well. You have swings in commodity prices, disease, years of drought and things that negatively effect one ag product or another. When all your eggs are in one basket you can get burned. This could lead to more of a shift towards wheat, cotton, rice, sorghum, oats, etc. Or even more corn or other products for biofuels. Plus I see plenty of fruits and vegetables at my grocery store that are coming from Central America and Mexico that can be grown here. There is opportunity for farmers to rely less upon soybean exports, perhaps some became too dependent on them in the first place.


[Edited on 7/29/2018 by nebish]


CB - 7/29/2018 at 01:46 PM

So is the deficit. Tax cuts and uncontrolled spending won’t work to sustain growth

POTUS is already only concerned about being re-elected Scary to think how out of control he could be during a second term.

[Edited on 7/29/2018 by CB]


Muleman1994 - 7/29/2018 at 08:39 PM

Now suddenly the lefties talking about deficit and or debt.

Not a peep from them while Obama racked up more national debt than all previous 43 presidents combined.

It’s all good.

President Trump’s economic policies have the U.S. economy running better than it has in decades and his approval ratings continue to rise.

Anyone notice that the Democrats, with the mid-term elections about 3 months away never talk about the economy, jobs or anything else that actually matters to the American people?




2112 - 7/29/2018 at 11:52 PM

quote:
Now suddenly the lefties talking about deficit and or debt.

Not a peep from them while Obama racked up more national debt than all previous 43 presidents combined.

It’s all good.

President Trump’s economic policies have the U.S. economy running better than it has in decades and his approval ratings continue to rise.

Anyone notice that the Democrats, with the mid-term elections about 3 months away never talk about the economy, jobs or anything else that actually matters to the American people?






First of all, Obama didn't add more debt than all previous presidents combined. However, a ton of debt was accumulated mostly due to the terrible economy at the beginning of his term as the US was recovering from the great recession. However, the deficit decreased year after year adter that except his last year. Now that Trump is in office with a "good economy," the deficit should be going down and the US should work on paying off the debt - but instead the deficit is exploding again. The deficit in 2017 was 3.5% of GDP. In 2022 and beyond the CBO estimates at 5.4% of GDP, and that assumes a healthy economy. This is a direct result of Trump's policies. I know Trump is used to taking out big loans on his businesses and not paying them back, but that's not how government works.


Sang - 7/30/2018 at 02:49 AM

quote:
Now suddenly the lefties talking about deficit and or debt.





The funny part is how it doesn't seem to matter anymore to the righties ....


BoytonBrother - 7/30/2018 at 02:26 PM

quote:
Not a peep from them while Obama racked up more national debt than all previous 43 presidents combined.


Translation: I’m ashamed that a black man can make me look like a homeless person in comparison.

quote:
President Trump’s economic policies have the U.S. economy running better than it has in decades and his approval ratings continue to rise.


But your daddy still won’t pat you on the back.

quote:
Anyone notice that the Democrats, with the mid-term elections about 3 months away never talk about the economy, jobs or anything else that actually matters to the American people?


No. Get over it snowflake.

[Edited on 7/30/2018 by BoytonBrother]


anthonyspare - 7/30/2018 at 03:19 PM

Personally, I cannot complain, my stocks are rocking and rolling and I loved my tax cut at the beginning of the year. Also, I live in a divided house, my wife is not a Trump fan at all, but yet she will still admit that her earnings and labor demand has never been greater than ever.

And, lots of people still tend to blame politics for what was ultimately a "bad decision" they made at one time.
Let's call a spade a spade.
If your job/salary is not where you want it to be, then leave. If you say you can't leave because of "yada, yada, excuse" then its probably the result of a decision you have made.


BoytonBrother - 7/30/2018 at 03:51 PM

quote:
Personally, I cannot complain, my stocks are rocking and rolling and I loved my tax cut at the beginning of the year. Also, I live in a divided house, my wife is not a Trump fan at all, but yet she will still admit that her earnings and labor demand has never been greater than ever.


Sounds like you are crediting Trump for your rocking stocks, tax cuts, and your wife’s earnings and labor demand.

quote:
And, lots of people still tend to blame politics for what was ultimately a "bad decision" they made at one time.
Let's call a spade a spade.
If your job/salary is not where you want it to be, then leave. If you say you can't leave because of "yada, yada, excuse" then its probably the result of a decision you have made.


Sounds like you are crediting individuals for their financial situation, in which I’d agree. Why are your financial improvements because of Trump, but a poor salary is because of a bad personal decision? Is it personal accountability or not?


nebish - 7/30/2018 at 03:55 PM

I do care about the national debt and annual spending deficits. On one hand it just seems so large that it will be impossible to pay down, but on the other hand it doesn't make sense to continue adding to it each and every year.

I am very supportive of the corporate tax reform that was passed, and based on comments at the time, had the bill solely focused on that and that alone more than a few Democrats would've supported it as well.

I did not believe that the timing was right for personal tax cuts. As a rule I always believe that people should keep more of what they earn, but when looked at tax cuts as a tool in the government tool box I would've saved that for another day and time. Simply, the economy in my opinion did not need it then or now. And I also disagree with eliminating SALT deductions. Income paid out in obligated state and local taxes should be deductible in my opinion. Plus it feels politically targeted and I do not like that either.

So corporate tax reform, yes. Individual tax cuts this go around, no.

Then you have the government spending side of the equation. I would've rather they kept the sequester cuts than the spending package they passed earlier this year. Cuts across the board, including defense, should be in order. And if we don't want to or can't cut social programs, I would like to see small incremental tax increases for those programs. If your money was taken from you for these programs you deserve benefits of those programs. If we can't pay the benefit then we have to raise the amount we are taking from people to sustain it.

But it is just easier to borrow more money from foreign countries and pretend like nothing bad will ever happen for continuing to do so. That is wrong and should not be how our government functions.


nebish - 7/30/2018 at 04:09 PM

I wanted to touch on the wage issue as well.

It is hard for anyone to say what IPowrie or whomever should do with their job situation. That is solely up to them for reasons that are or are not important to them. If somebody has accumulated nice paid vacation time, or is vested in some kind of retirement program or whatever it is, simply getting more hourly pay or annual salary may not offset losing some other important benefits that time with one employer has produced.

Just from some people in my life, a good friend of mine is a welder. He knows if he left his current job he could make more money. But he has a very good relationship with his boss in a good work environment and that is worth something to him compared to the unknown of another job. Different people may make different decisions.

Another friend of mine in the insurance industry thought he was making good money at his old job until the work load just became unbearable (employer wasn't replaced departed workers or hiring new so just kept putting more and more work on remaining employees). He left for another insurance company and is making better money and hasn't encountered the same problems he had before.

One of my best friends manages a distribution warehouse where the company does not pay good entry level wages and it is a revolving door of people in and out as people continually leave for better pay in other nearby warehouses. He would like to offer more 1) to keep workers and 2) to attract better workers. As it is the people they get at the wage they are paying do not have the greatest work ethic. But it is hard sometimes to get large companies to realize things like that and authorize higher wages.

People can get pay increases, but they likely have to leave their current job to do so. Many employers do not appreciate the current workers they have and do not reward them enough with pay or benefit increases, but when those workers they may be taking for granted leave, they often have to offer more pay to get the same caliber employee they just lost. I guess it is kind of like your bank that offers new customers great rates, but the existing customers can't get those promo deals without bringing new money to the bank.

Maybe it is just kind of a game we all play, life, us, them, work, free time, income and fitting it all into our own equation to produce whatever decision it is we make. It does seem that in most corners of the economy this is a great time to put out the feelers and see if something better can be had, often it can right now. If that is right for any given person is up to them.


BIGV - 7/30/2018 at 04:23 PM

quote:
I’m ashamed that a black man can make me look like a homeless person in comparison.


What does the color of the President's skin have to do with it?


BoytonBrother - 7/30/2018 at 04:40 PM

quote:
What does the color of the President's skin have to do with it?


I believe it’s the root of why the right hates him.


BIGV - 7/30/2018 at 05:53 PM

quote:
quote:
What does the color of the President's skin have to do with it?


I believe it’s the root of why the right hates him.


Pathetic


BoytonBrother - 7/30/2018 at 06:05 PM

quote:
Pathetic


quote:
I will exchange ideas and thought with anyone at anytime, until it becomes argumentative. One should be able to share a thought and hear an opposing view. If you disagree, you should be able to depart, knowing you've made the attempt. Seeing and hearing frustration because you will not continue to engage when there is no possibility in your mind of finding common ground is the red flag that tells me the attempt at conversation has come to an end. It's OK to just, walk away.


LOL, ok! You sound like one conflicted dude.

“Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views.”

- William F. Buckley


Sang - 7/30/2018 at 06:20 PM

Article today from Terry Savage. Her previous article was about personal debt rising to over $1 trillion in the US. At my financial adviser's last meeting they said inflation was up 2.8% (including gas and food). They said they thought the fed was raising rates even though the numbers don't support it, because if we go into a recession they won't have any tools available to them if the rates are already low.


The economy has always reminded me of one of those squishy toys that children so enjoy. If you squeeze the middle, the ends get distorted. If you squeeze one end, the other end bulges and changes shape. Same thing with the economy: If you change trade policy or interest rates or tax rates, the results are felt far from the part you squeezed.

That’s exactly what’s happening now. And as a result you’re going to hear more about subjects that haven’t been in the economic headlines for at least a decade, like inflation, rising prices and the value of the dollar. It’s time to get prepared.

Inflation on its way

The simplest definition of inflation is rising prices — although economists will tell you it’s all about money creation. We are definitely starting to see rising prices as the result of tariffs. When we put taxes on imports — whether they come from China or any other part of the world — those taxes are passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

Manufacturers that import everything from computer parts to tires to washing machines will try to hold prices steady so consumers aren’t turned off. But in the end they will raise prices just to stay in business. Whether it’s raw materials (think fresh vegetables from Mexico) or telephone handsets, prices will move higher.

And as the higher prices deter consumer buying, the slowdown will be felt by retailers and manufacturers alike. Instead of saving jobs, the tariffs will cost jobs. But it will take a while for the effects to be felt.

In the end, inflation is a monetary issue. Because if you fear that prices will be higher in the future, it means that your dollar will buy less. So workers will demand higher wages to pay for the increased cost of living. And higher wages mean more money chasing after things to buy, pushing prices even higher.

In the end, no one is better off with inflation. Just ask Venezuela, which is suffering with a 46,000 percent — yes forty-six thousand! — inflation rate this month. There are no basic supplies of food and water available at any price for worthless Venezuelan currency. And Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, so the country should be wealthy. But it can’t pay workers to keep its refineries operating.

Higher interest rates follow

Future inflation expectations inevitably drive interest rates higher. It’s not just the Fed announcing small rate hikes that drives rates. It’s the marketplace where lenders of dollars, fearing that inflation will result in less buying power for the dollar, will demand higher interest rates to compensate.

Politicians can blame the Fed for their small increases. But once the global marketplace decides that the United States dollar is losing value because of inflation, there will be no way to stop rates from rising. After all, we have so much debt — more than $20 trillion — that we must keep borrowing, and paying the price in higher interest rates.

On a personal basis, debt will become a huge burden as monthly payments rise. Think of your credit card bills and your adjustable rate mortgage or home equity loan.

Downside of a strong dollar

But there is another negative aspect of higher interest rates. If U.S. rates move higher than those in other countries, our currency will become more attractive and rise in value against other countries. This “strong” dollar makes our exports more expensive because foreign buyers will have to scrape together more Euros, for example, to buy one dollar’s worth of our manufactured goods. As a result, sales of U.S. products are likely to drop, resulting in layoffs at our factories. Obviously, that was not the intended result when tariffs were imposed.

All these impacts, and we haven’t even mentioned retaliatory tariffs. They pose the potential to cost jobs everywhere from the farm belt to manufacturing to technology to retailing. The tariffs could be the biggest “squish” of all!

That’s the thing with economics. Our economy and the global economy are indeed inter-connected, like a giant squishy toy — with bulges and odd results taking place far from the original squeeze. And that’s The Savage Truth.


https://www.terrysavage.com/squishing-the-economy/


anthonyspare - 7/30/2018 at 06:21 PM

quote:
quote:
Personally, I cannot complain, my stocks are rocking and rolling and I loved my tax cut at the beginning of the year. Also, I live in a divided house, my wife is not a Trump fan at all, but yet she will still admit that her earnings and labor demand has never been greater than ever.


Sounds like you are crediting Trump for your rocking stocks, tax cuts, and your wife’s earnings and labor demand.

quote:
And, lots of people still tend to blame politics for what was ultimately a "bad decision" they made at one time.
Let's call a spade a spade.
If your job/salary is not where you want it to be, then leave. If you say you can't leave because of "yada, yada, excuse" then its probably the result of a decision you have made.


Sounds like you are crediting individuals for their financial situation, in which I’d agree. Why are your financial improvements because of Trump, but a poor salary is because of a bad personal decision? Is it personal accountability or not?



My financial improvements this year are due to an external source (Trump/economic policy), not a result of my personal decisions.

--As tax rate drops, my net income goes up. <- tax rate decrease is NOT a result of my action or personal decision, it's a result of policy.

--As stocks continue to go up, my portfolio "income" increases <- the increase is NOT a result of my action or personal decision, it's a result of economic condition.

--As household income improves throughout the economy, my wife (a realtor) has greater labor demand which leads to greater potential earnings <- again not the result of an action or personal decision by my wife, this is a result of economic condition

Now, regarding the personal decision aspect leading to "undesirable" salaries.
You choose how much time to invest in your education, you choose how much time to invest in your career, you can't go through life waiting to get lucky or hit your "big break". If you can't that desirable job, then you didn't do what you needed to do to earn that job.

I guess in summary, work hard and plan long term, don't blow through school/life and expect to be handed a 6 figure salary, you didn't earn it. The harder you work, the luckier you get.

disclaimer; All IMHO, not here to argue with you cats, just expressing opinion.



[Edited on 7/30/2018 by anthonyspare]


BoytonBrother - 7/30/2018 at 06:44 PM

quote:
My financial improvements this year are due to an external source (Trump/economic policy), not a result of my personal decisions.


You didn’t choose your career?

quote:
--As tax rate drops, my net income goes up. <- tax rate decrease is NOT a result of my action or personal decision, it's a result of policy.


You didn’t choose your career?

quote:
--As stocks continue to go up, my portfolio "income" increases <- the increase is NOT a result of my action or personal decision, it's a result of economic condition.


Were you forced to buy stocks?

quote:
--As household income improves throughout the economy, my wife (a realtor) has greater labor demand which leads to greater potential earnings <- again not the result of an action or personal decision by my wife, this is a result of economic condition


Who chose her profession? Who forced her to get a real estate license? Who tells her wake up each morning and make calls?

I’m not trying to argue with you. I’m just surprised that someone can bust their butt their whole life to be successful, make your own life choices, and then credit politicians for it. I’ve seen friends and relatives get very rich in the past 10 years by opening their own businesses. To suggest it’s about Trump is funny to me.


anthonyspare - 7/30/2018 at 07:32 PM

quote:
quote:
My financial improvements this year are due to an external source (Trump/economic policy), not a result of my personal decisions.


You didn’t choose your career?

quote:
--As tax rate drops, my net income goes up. <- tax rate decrease is NOT a result of my action or personal decision, it's a result of policy.


You didn’t choose your career?

quote:
--As stocks continue to go up, my portfolio "income" increases <- the increase is NOT a result of my action or personal decision, it's a result of economic condition.


Were you forced to buy stocks?

quote:
--As household income improves throughout the economy, my wife (a realtor) has greater labor demand which leads to greater potential earnings <- again not the result of an action or personal decision by my wife, this is a result of economic condition


Who chose her profession? Who forced her to get a real estate license? Who tells her wake up each morning and make calls?

I’m not trying to argue with you. I’m just surprised that someone can bust their butt their whole life to be successful, make your own life choices, and then credit politicians for it. I’ve seen friends and relatives get very rich in the past 10 years by opening their own businesses. To suggest it’s about Trump is funny to me.


I totally agree and get what you're saying but I think there is a little misunderstanding. Nowhere did I credit Trump for my initial successes (college/finding a career/wife finding a career). I am strictly talking about my improvements financially this year, as stated in my original post. Trump didn't find my job for me or complete my MBA for me or turn my wife into a realtor. That is a result of our personal decisions and hard work. I simply credited Trump and our economic policy for the tax rate drop, rise in some stocks, and wife's current professional demand due to economic condition. Those three things cannot be controlled by myself or my wife. They are a result of real-world economics and monetary policy.

--I, myself, chose my career path but cannot take credit for the tax reduction as it was not a result of something I did.

--I, myself, chose to buy stocks but I, myself, did not make their value increase.

--My wife chose to be a realtor, but she did not decide to improve the demand of the housing market.




BoytonBrother - 7/30/2018 at 07:57 PM

quote:
I simply credited Trump and our economic policy for the tax rate drop, rise in some stocks, and wife's current professional demand due to economic condition. Those three things cannot be controlled by myself or my wife. They are a result of real-world economics and monetary policy.

--I, myself, chose my career path but cannot take credit for the tax reduction as it was not a result of something I did.

--I, myself, chose to buy stocks but I, myself, did not make their value increase.

--My wife chose to be a realtor, but she did not decide to improve the demand of the housing market.


I can see your point about the taxes I guess, but you’re not selling me that the stock market and housing market is because of Trump. Stocks go up and down constantly - will you fault Trump when the stock market goes down in the future? Do you blame George W Bush for the housing collapse? I don’t.


anthonyspare - 7/30/2018 at 08:10 PM

quote:
quote:
I simply credited Trump and our economic policy for the tax rate drop, rise in some stocks, and wife's current professional demand due to economic condition. Those three things cannot be controlled by myself or my wife. They are a result of real-world economics and monetary policy.

--I, myself, chose my career path but cannot take credit for the tax reduction as it was not a result of something I did.

--I, myself, chose to buy stocks but I, myself, did not make their value increase.

--My wife chose to be a realtor, but she did not decide to improve the demand of the housing market.


I can see your point about the taxes I guess, but you’re not selling me that the stock market and housing market is because of Trump. Stocks go up and down constantly - will you fault Trump when the stock market goes down in the future? Do you blame George W Bush for the housing collapse? I don’t.


Touché, maybe I need to take the political blinders off regarding the stock/housing argument.Trying to do the whole "take a look from the other side" thing, but as you know its not that easy.


BrerRabbit - 7/30/2018 at 08:19 PM

quote:
will you fault Trump when the stock market goes down in the future? Do you blame George W Bush for the housing collapse? I don't


There it is.


Bhawk - 7/30/2018 at 08:40 PM

The economy has been growing since 2010. If one wants to say that the growth hasn't been large enough or fast enough, there is that, sure.

On the housing market, existing inventory is hot but a correction is overdue. Demand remains steady to high, but construction loans and broker activity remain flat. A whole lotta houses got built before 2008, and with the rapidly aging boomers, there's going to be a huge over-inventory in housing sooner or later.

People have been trying to correlate politics and the stock market for a very long time, with very different conclusions.

BTW, anyone else noticing the stealth inflation at the gas pump and grocery store?


2112 - 7/30/2018 at 08:51 PM

quote:
Article today from Terry Savage. Her previous article was about personal debt rising to over $1 trillion in the US. At my financial adviser's last meeting they said inflation was up 2.8% (including gas and food). They said they thought the fed was raising rates even though the numbers don't support it, because if we go into a recession they won't have any tools available to them if the rates are already low.


The economy has always reminded me of one of those squishy toys that children so enjoy. If you squeeze the middle, the ends get distorted. If you squeeze one end, the other end bulges and changes shape. Same thing with the economy: If you change trade policy or interest rates or tax rates, the results are felt far from the part you squeezed.

That’s exactly what’s happening now. And as a result you’re going to hear more about subjects that haven’t been in the economic headlines for at least a decade, like inflation, rising prices and the value of the dollar. It’s time to get prepared.

Inflation on its way

The simplest definition of inflation is rising prices — although economists will tell you it’s all about money creation. We are definitely starting to see rising prices as the result of tariffs. When we put taxes on imports — whether they come from China or any other part of the world — those taxes are passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

Manufacturers that import everything from computer parts to tires to washing machines will try to hold prices steady so consumers aren’t turned off. But in the end they will raise prices just to stay in business. Whether it’s raw materials (think fresh vegetables from Mexico) or telephone handsets, prices will move higher.

And as the higher prices deter consumer buying, the slowdown will be felt by retailers and manufacturers alike. Instead of saving jobs, the tariffs will cost jobs. But it will take a while for the effects to be felt.

In the end, inflation is a monetary issue. Because if you fear that prices will be higher in the future, it means that your dollar will buy less. So workers will demand higher wages to pay for the increased cost of living. And higher wages mean more money chasing after things to buy, pushing prices even higher.

In the end, no one is better off with inflation. Just ask Venezuela, which is suffering with a 46,000 percent — yes forty-six thousand! — inflation rate this month. There are no basic supplies of food and water available at any price for worthless Venezuelan currency. And Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, so the country should be wealthy. But it can’t pay workers to keep its refineries operating.

Higher interest rates follow

Future inflation expectations inevitably drive interest rates higher. It’s not just the Fed announcing small rate hikes that drives rates. It’s the marketplace where lenders of dollars, fearing that inflation will result in less buying power for the dollar, will demand higher interest rates to compensate.

Politicians can blame the Fed for their small increases. But once the global marketplace decides that the United States dollar is losing value because of inflation, there will be no way to stop rates from rising. After all, we have so much debt — more than $20 trillion — that we must keep borrowing, and paying the price in higher interest rates.

On a personal basis, debt will become a huge burden as monthly payments rise. Think of your credit card bills and your adjustable rate mortgage or home equity loan.

Downside of a strong dollar

But there is another negative aspect of higher interest rates. If U.S. rates move higher than those in other countries, our currency will become more attractive and rise in value against other countries. This “strong” dollar makes our exports more expensive because foreign buyers will have to scrape together more Euros, for example, to buy one dollar’s worth of our manufactured goods. As a result, sales of U.S. products are likely to drop, resulting in layoffs at our factories. Obviously, that was not the intended result when tariffs were imposed.

All these impacts, and we haven’t even mentioned retaliatory tariffs. They pose the potential to cost jobs everywhere from the farm belt to manufacturing to technology to retailing. The tariffs could be the biggest “squish” of all!

That’s the thing with economics. Our economy and the global economy are indeed inter-connected, like a giant squishy toy — with bulges and odd results taking place far from the original squeeze. And that’s The Savage Truth.


https://www.terrysavage.com/squishing-the-economy/


There is a lot there that I agree with, and a little I don't. Prices will be going up, that's for sure. The tariffs on imported goods, as well as raw materials for goods made in the US, will be passed on to customers. I read that prices for Maytag washing machines have have already increased 20% due to increased aluminum prices from the tariffs, and this is from a company that initially applauded the tariffs.

With inflation will come increased interest rates, and along with that it will cost even more to service the national debt (because everyone wants their tax money to go to paying interest instead of actually doing something useful with your money).

The part I disagree with is the strong dollar issue. Yes, a weak dollar makes US goods cheaper overseas. However, traditionally the US economy has does better during periods when the dollar was strong. Regardless, I think countries are going to start having second thoughts about lending the US unlimited money to service our debt. Didn't Trump once even say that maybe the US should default on our debt? Would you lend money to someone who even in passing suggested defaulting on a loan?


BrerRabbit - 7/30/2018 at 08:54 PM

"Stealth" ? Maybe kind of stealth for gas, but food prices are an outright kick in the teeth, climbing every week.


BoytonBrother - 7/30/2018 at 09:14 PM

quote:
Touché, maybe I need to take the political blinders off regarding the stock/housing argument.Trying to do the whole "take a look from the other side" thing, but as you know its not that easy.


I applaud you! I hope Trump does help you somehow, but you deserve the credit, not anyone else, IMO.


BIGV - 7/30/2018 at 10:00 PM

quote:
quote:
Pathetic


quote:
I will exchange ideas and thought with anyone at anytime, until it becomes argumentative. One should be able to share a thought and hear an opposing view. If you disagree, you should be able to depart, knowing you've made the attempt. Seeing and hearing frustration because you will not continue to engage when there is no possibility in your mind of finding common ground is the red flag that tells me the attempt at conversation has come to an end. It's OK to just, walk away.


LOL, ok! You sound like one conflicted dude.

“Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views.”

- William F. Buckley


I did not bring up the color of one's skin, you did and I repeat, that is pathetic


BoytonBrother - 7/30/2018 at 10:11 PM

quote:
I did not bring up the color of one's skin, you did and I repeat, that is pathetic


I never said you brought it up, take it easy. I stated I believe race is at the root of hatred for Obama, just sharing a thought. You call it pathetic, after posting that you “exchange ideas until it becomes argumentative, and one should be able to share a thought.” You crack me up is all I’m saying.


BIGV - 7/30/2018 at 10:21 PM

quote:
quote:
I did not bring up the color of one's skin, you did and I repeat, that is pathetic


I never said you brought it up, take it easy. I stated I believe race is at the root of hatred for Obama, just sharing a thought. You call it pathetic, after posting that you “exchange ideas until it becomes argumentative, and one should be able to share a thought.” You crack me up is all I’m saying.


You are certainly entitled to your opinion

quote:
"I stated I believe race is at the root of hatred for Obama"


Could his politics have anything to do with it? Great orator and that is it, nothing, zip, nada to do with the color of his skin.

"Exchanging" ideas with you has proven to be an exercise in futility. This will be proven soon as your need to get the last word in will overcome any sensible rebuttal to the "thought" you've so graciously shared here.

Enjoy the day, I am "walking away".


DOVETAIL - 7/30/2018 at 10:36 PM

quote:
quote:
THIS IS ANOTHER LIE by trump and muleturd. Trump still has the smell of putins balls on his breath.


Are you on public assistance or a monthly fixed income? How else can you be such a blockhead?


I am on social security and that fat orange **** wants to let his eunuch minions like Ryan cut that plus Medicare to reduce the debt they incurred with a tax bill that largely benefits the wealthy and/or those jerking their chains on the stock market....


BoytonBrother - 7/30/2018 at 10:50 PM

quote:
Could his politics have anything to do with it? Great orator and that is it, nothing, zip, nada to do with the color of his skin.

"Exchanging" ideas with you has proven to be an exercise in futility. This will be proven soon as your need to get the last word in will overcome any sensible rebuttal to the "thought" you've so graciously shared here.

Enjoy the day, I am "walking away".


Wow! Where do I start....Your first paragraph made me think you wanted to share ideas. But then the last paragraph says you are walking away. Am I supposed to engage or not? You seem to be flustered a little.

As for your first paragraph, I do think conservatives genuinely oppose his politics, no doubt. I remember the Clinton bashing - it was a Disney movie compared to what I saw and heard about Obama. The criticism I heard about Clinton was rational. But if can’t say the same about the criticism I’ve heard about Obama, so I have always asked myself why that is. I don’t think it’s hatred for black people, but rather an insecurity that black people were “taking over” and they got scared, panicked, and developed crazy paranoia thoughts as a result. I never said that opposition to Obama means a hatred for blacks, nor do I think it makes someone a racist. When I say that I believe race is at the root of the issue, I’m referring to the insecurities I mentioned before....not that they are racists. Just sharing ideas,...take it easy.

And as for your second paragraph, whatever makes you feel better.


nebish - 7/31/2018 at 11:11 AM

Adding more mystery to intent behind the curtain at the Fed, raising interest rates now just so they can lower them later when necessary. I haven't heard that one Sang, but could be a valid point.

The threat of inflation is always there in a growing economy. Impacts from tariffs are just one component, admittedly avoidable. No need for me to go into another defense of their use on principle here I don't think. I would say that when people are buying more 'stuff' and companies are producing more 'stuff' for the higher demand in a growing economy prices for raw and finished materials can go up absent of tariffs. Tariffs can escalate that, but too many people I hear are failing to acknowledge there are other reasons for prices to rise, tariffs are simply not the only reason even though that is the only reason most point to lately. It is like saying that gas and diesel prices are higher because of increased state taxes. There are other variables that effect those prices outside of taxes, just as there are other variables that effect other product prices including steel and aluminum.

When my advisors have always told me to be more aggressive because "you have to beat inflation", as I often do, I take a different view. Yes inflation is an invisible force that lowers the value of our dollar, however we control our spending. In terms of fuel, we can drive less, we can car pool, we can invest in more fuel efficient autos. We can use less energy in our homes, we can invest in more efficient appliances. We can change our food buying habits and possibly grow some of our own food. As producers and sellers pass on their higher costs, we can defer some purchases making existing goods last longer and therefor getting more value out of them. So as prices go up due to inflation, or whatever else, we can control to a point how much we spend, when we spend and what we spend it on and what that means for our ultimate purchasing power.

My brokers have always said "unless you are getting 3% return you are losing". Sure I want more than 3% return on my munis or stocks, but I also just opened a 19 month 2.7% CD for some close to home safe money. If rates are higher in 19 months I might roll that over for another term. Everyone has to figure out their own deal. I like figuring out my own thing instead of following guidance more often than not. If I fail on my own accord I can live with that. If I fail listening to somebody else's advise I can't handle that.

[Edited on 7/31/2018 by nebish]


anthonyspare - 7/31/2018 at 12:14 PM

quote:
"Stealth" ? Maybe kind of stealth for gas, but food prices are an outright kick in the teeth, climbing every week.


Yeah, Kroger has hit me in the wallet here lately. A lot of this is due to the ELD mandate and trucker shortage we are going through right now, and its only going to get worse through Christmas. Trucks that cost me $4600 last month to get to KY from Long Beach are costing me $6000 this month. Craziness.
Also, the ELD has hurt the "new home" market as building materials and lumber are outrageous due to trucking costs.


sckeys - 7/31/2018 at 12:40 PM

quote:


When my advisors have always told me to be more aggressive because "you have to beat inflation", as I often do, I take a different view. Yes inflation is an invisible force that lowers the value of our dollar, however we control our spending. In terms of fuel, we can drive less, we can car pool, we can invest in more fuel efficient autos. We can use less energy in our homes, we can invest in more efficient appliances. We can change our food buying habits and possibly grow some of our own food. As producers and sellers pass on their higher costs, we can defer some purchases making existing goods last longer and therefor getting more value out of them. So as prices go up due to inflation, or whatever else, we can control to a point how much we spend, when we spend and what we spend it on and what that means for our ultimate purchasing power.
[Edited on 7/31/2018 by nebish]


You are completely correct here. In reality most people forget this advise and borrow the difference.


BoytonBrother - 7/31/2018 at 01:09 PM

quote:
Could his politics have anything to do with it? Great orator and that is it, nothing, zip, nada to do with the color of his skin.

"Exchanging" ideas with you has proven to be an exercise in futility. This will be proven soon as your need to get the last word in will overcome any sensible rebuttal to the "thought" you've so graciously shared here.



“Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views.”

- William F. Buckley


BoytonBrother - 7/31/2018 at 01:48 PM

I found this post below to be fascinating, so I thought I’d break it down and provide my feedback.

quote:
I will exchange ideas and thought with anyone at anytime, until it becomes argumentative.


Notice he doesn’t mention what types of ideas and thoughts, just that he will exchange them. In my case in this thread, he exchanged his idea and thought that my post was pathetic.

“until it gets argumentative”.....again, no mention of who initiated the argument or who even decides that it is an argument, leaving it open ended. He isn’t saying who caused it, just that it is now an argument.

quote:
One should be able to share a thought and hear an opposing view. If you disagree, you should be able to depart, knowing you've made the attempt


Made the attempt at what? He doesn’t say. It’s vague, maybe intentionally. In our exchange, he departed, but only attempted to call it pathetic before saying he is departing. This leads me to believe he was referring to himself when he wrote this post....he should’ve been able to make a civil “attempt” at discussion, but alas, he got flustered and departed.

quote:
Seeing and hearing frustration because you will not continue to engage when there is no possibility in your mind of finding common ground is the red flag that tells me the attempt at conversation has come to an end.


Here he is warning everyone. He wouldn’t continue to engage with me, because there was no possibility for him to find common ground with my opinion about race. He noticed his own red flag, and recognized the conversation should end, and so he departed.

quote:
It's OK to just, walk away.


Yes it is brotha, yes it is. Took me a while to understand, but I think I get it now.


nebish - 7/31/2018 at 04:23 PM

Reading back through the thread I thought Bhawk mentioned something I have not thought about, the housing market related to baby boomers and when those homes will be coming on the market. More homes on the market, more competition, definitely creates downward pressure on listing and sales prices.

The oldest boomers, ones that I know, have already moved and downsized into condo type places, while others still are in their life-long home and then the younger ones just entering retirement or on the cusp and haven't made that move yet. Wondering what somebody from the industry might think about this? I have a realtor friend, will have to ask next time I see him.

It seems at one time the stories read that millennials were not interested in home ownership, although as time has gone on, the great recession is further behind us and they get older some of that is changing.


nebish - 7/31/2018 at 04:30 PM

Some say 70%+ of employment costs are comprised of wages and beneifts.

quote:
U.S. Employment Costs Increase From Year Ago by Most Since 2008
By Sho Chandra
July 31, 2018, 8:30 AM EDT

U.S. employment costs accelerated in the second quarter from a year ago by the most in this expansion on faster growth in worker pay and benefits, according to Labor Department data released Tuesday.

Highlights of Employment Cost Index (2Q)

Employment cost index rose 2.8% y/y, the most since 3q 2008, after 2.7% gain

ECI climbed 0.6% m/m (est. 0.7%) after 0.8% increase

Wages and salaries rose 2.8% y/y, also the biggest gain since 3q 2008; benefits costs jumped 2.9% y/y, most since 4q 2011

Private-sector wages and salaries advanced 2.9% y/y for a second quarter

Key Takeaways

The latest results indicate employers are offering better compensation packages to workers amid an ongoing shortage of qualified workers. In another sign of broad-based demand for labor, the ECI showed increases in manufacturing, construction and service-related industries.

While labor costs are rising, there are few signs that they'll trigger heightened inflation pressures. Economists expect the Federal Reserve will still raise interest rates gradually this year.

The government’s quarterly read on the ECI -- covering employer- paid taxes such as Social Security and Medicare in addition to the cost of wages and benefits -- offers a comprehensive look at how American workers are being compensated.

Average hourly earnings, a separate monthly measure of private- sector wages that can be influenced by shifts in industry employment and hours worked, have been rising moderately in this expansion relative to the strength of the job market.

Other Details

Employment costs for manufacturers rose 2.9 percent from a year ago; construction up 3 percent and private service providers up 2.9 percent

Benefit costs in private industry rose 2.8 percent from second quarter of 2017, after increasing 2.5 percent

Employers costs for health benefits increased 1.6 percent from a year earlier

— With assistance by Chris Middleton

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-31/u-s-employment-costs-inc rease-from-year-ago-by-most-since-2008


BoytonBrother - 7/31/2018 at 06:25 PM

The economy has been on a steady incline since 2009, period. Great job by Obama to turn around the disaster created by the Republican administration of W Bush, who bankrupted the country. Not only did Obama reverse course on Bush’s stumbling mess, but he turned it around all while being sabotaged along the way by white people who melted down over a half black President. Trump is just riding Obama’s wave, as usual. Trump has even admitted this....I’ve heard a dozen separate instances of Trump justifying his policies by saying, “Obama did the same thing when he was in office”. I think the President has a man crush on Obama. It’s funny to watch Trump and Putin tremble like b*tches at the mere mention of Obama’s name, let alone seeing him face to face. Ever see the photos of both Trump and Putin looking down in shame as they shake Obama’s hand, while Obama stares them down right to their face? Priceless!




[Edited on 7/31/2018 by BoytonBrother]


anthonyspare - 7/31/2018 at 06:30 PM

quote:
Reading back through the thread I thought Bhawk mentioned something I have not thought about, the housing market related to baby boomers and when those homes will be coming on the market. More homes on the market, more competition, definitely creates downward pressure on listing and sales prices.

The oldest boomers, ones that I know, have already moved and downsized into condo type places, while others still are in their life-long home and then the younger ones just entering retirement or on the cusp and haven't made that move yet. Wondering what somebody from the industry might think about this? I have a realtor friend, will have to ask next time I see him.

It seems at one time the stories read that millennials were not interested in home ownership, although as time has gone on, the great recession is further behind us and they get older some of that is changing.


A supply of available homes here in Central KY is non-existent while the demand is booming. As for the whole "baby boomer sell off", the industry did expect this to happen over the last half-decade or so but unfortunately it never transpired. Boomer's are actually now considered the least likely age group to sell their homes. Where I live there are very few "buildable" lots left but unfortunately construction costs are through the roof and with down payment requirements, etc. many millennials are still being forced to rent.


Sang - 8/1/2018 at 10:55 PM

quote:

My brokers have always said "unless you are getting 3% return you are losing". Sure I want more than 3% return on my munis or stocks, but I also just opened a 19 month 2.7% CD for some close to home safe money. If rates are higher in 19 months I might roll that over for another term. Everyone has to figure out their own deal. I like figuring out my own thing instead of following guidance more often than not. If I fail on my own accord I can live with that. If I fail listening to somebody else's advise I can't handle that.




Good for you. With all the volatility, my guys have been suggesting only going out 6 months at a time instead of locking in for a longer period. Mostly because I am investing instead of needing it to live, I have been doing that. Just got a 6 month cd for 2% - with the hope that in 6 months the rate will be higher.


MartinD28 - 8/1/2018 at 11:48 PM

quote:
quote:

My brokers have always said "unless you are getting 3% return you are losing". Sure I want more than 3% return on my munis or stocks, but I also just opened a 19 month 2.7% CD for some close to home safe money. If rates are higher in 19 months I might roll that over for another term. Everyone has to figure out their own deal. I like figuring out my own thing instead of following guidance more often than not. If I fail on my own accord I can live with that. If I fail listening to somebody else's advise I can't handle that.




Good for you. With all the volatility, my guys have been suggesting only going out 6 months at a time instead of locking in for a longer period. Mostly because I am investing instead of needing it to live, I have been doing that. Just got a 6 month cd for 2% - with the hope that in 6 months the rate will be higher.


Sang - Exactly the right strategy. With the Fed expected to increase rates several more times, if one is purchasing CD's, the prudent strategy is short term with expectations to roll over into a higher rate upon maturity.


OriginalGoober - 8/2/2018 at 12:44 AM



Sadly, some still believe this uptick is due to the Owe-bama and Pelosi dynamic duo, Regulation and Taxes.


BoytonBrother - 8/2/2018 at 01:22 AM

quote:
Sadly, some still believe this uptick is due to the Owe-bama and Pelosi dynamic duo, Regulation and Taxes.


“Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views.”

- William F. Buckley


StratDal - 8/2/2018 at 03:51 AM

quote:


Sadly, some still believe this uptick is due to the Owe-bama and Pelosi dynamic duo, Regulation and Taxes.


And sadly some still believe this uptick is due to the president.


BoytonBrother - 8/2/2018 at 12:55 PM

Steady incline since 2009. Great job Obama.



[Edited on 8/2/2018 by BoytonBrother]


Muleman1994 - 8/3/2018 at 05:15 PM

quote:
Steady incline since 2009. Great job Obama.



[Edited on 8/2/2018 by BoytonBrother]



It took until July 2017 for the U.S. economy to recover from Obama's failures predominately due to President Trump's leadership and policies and trust that the American people have in him.

You also forgot to throw the usual race-baiting political crap typical on those who cannot articulate a logical, fact-based argument.


BoytonBrother - 8/3/2018 at 06:29 PM

Economy has steadily iimproved overall since 2009 - Great job Obama.


Muleman1994 - 8/3/2018 at 06:51 PM

quote:
Economy has steadily iimproved overall since 2009 - Great job Obama.


Easy to regurgitate left-wing talking points when you have no facts to back up your claim.


BoytonBrother - 8/3/2018 at 07:01 PM

If you need facts to back-up facts for some reason, have at it. Truth hurts I guess.


Muleman1994 - 8/3/2018 at 08:16 PM

quote:
If you need facts to back-up facts for some reason, have at it. Truth hurts I guess.


Let us know if you ever come across a fact.
So far, nothing.


Muleman1994 - 8/3/2018 at 08:17 PM

Top 5 reasons Trump’s growing economy is strong and sustainable
August 3, 2018

The U.S. economy soared to unbeatable levels in the second quarter — the fastest in nearly a decade.

The giant uptick was driven by President Donald Trump’s massive tax reform and the president is hopeful that the growing economy will continue to accelerate under his leadership.

Never-Trumpers and anti-Trump economists are claiming this growth will not be sustainable, but we have the top five reasons why they are completely wrong.

Here are 5 Reasons why Trump’s economy will continue to grow —

#1
Income and consumer spending are boomimg — and according to the Commerce Department, consumer spending rose for the fourth consecutive time in June. May and June also posted 4% increases in income, respectively.

#2
Despite aggressive trade policies and the threat of a tariff war, business investments are up and could max out at a rise of 7%. The increase in business investments can be directly attributed to the decrease in the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. The significant increase in profits gives businesses plenty of reason to reinvest to become more competitive in the marketplace.

#3
The unemployment rate is down to 3.9%, the lowest in twenty years. The lower unemployment rate is part of an ongoing trend due to Trump Administration economic policies. As the Federal Reserve noted in an August 1st press release, “Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low.”

#4
According to a July 31st report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the personal saving rate rose 3.3% to 6.7% in 2017. Higher levels of savings among consumers means faster growth, more investments, and a stronger economy.

#5
The rolling back of regulations removes government from the private sector. Obamacare is a prime example, as healthcare is nearly 20% of the US Economy. Everytime a regulation is rolled back, this returns those funds back to the private sector, and fuels and strengthens the economy.
The anti-Trump so-called economists are wrong again.

Liberals should be terrified of the next GDP report… which comes out 11 days before November midterms.

It is possible the robust Trump economy will look even better, and the Democrats’ dreams of gaining back control of Congress are dashed, once again!


Sang - 8/3/2018 at 08:21 PM

I guess that's great if you ignore the trillions added to the debt (much more than was predicted) and the fact that consumers are now over $1 trillion in debt on credit cards, etc. But you're right, it is rosy for the top 1%!


BoytonBrother - 8/3/2018 at 08:41 PM

quote:
Let us know if you ever come across a fact.


Fact: Overall economy has been on a steady incline since 2009. What don't you understand?


OriginalGoober - 8/3/2018 at 10:59 PM

I bet those folks at Carrier are having an easier time finding new jobs .


jkeller - 8/3/2018 at 11:04 PM

quote:
I bet those folks at Carrier are having an easier time finding new jobs .


You would lose that bet as their are few jobs in that area.


Muleman1994 - 8/4/2018 at 03:13 PM

The facts of President Trump's huge success in leadership and policy is undeniable.

Notice that the far-left extremists can't handle the truth?


Bhawk - 8/6/2018 at 12:16 PM

quote:
quote:
Reading back through the thread I thought Bhawk mentioned something I have not thought about, the housing market related to baby boomers and when those homes will be coming on the market. More homes on the market, more competition, definitely creates downward pressure on listing and sales prices.

The oldest boomers, ones that I know, have already moved and downsized into condo type places, while others still are in their life-long home and then the younger ones just entering retirement or on the cusp and haven't made that move yet. Wondering what somebody from the industry might think about this? I have a realtor friend, will have to ask next time I see him.

It seems at one time the stories read that millennials were not interested in home ownership, although as time has gone on, the great recession is further behind us and they get older some of that is changing.


A supply of available homes here in Central KY is non-existent while the demand is booming. As for the whole "baby boomer sell off", the industry did expect this to happen over the last half-decade or so but unfortunately it never transpired. Boomer's are actually now considered the least likely age group to sell their homes. Where I live there are very few "buildable" lots left but unfortunately construction costs are through the roof and with down payment requirements, etc. many millennials are still being forced to rent.


Never transpired? Boomers go up to born in 1964, 54 years ago. 10,000 people hit retirement age a day. Ten more years of that is on the horizon. Far from over.


nebish - 8/6/2018 at 12:38 PM

Thinking about CDs, a few friends and I had been discussing them, it is funny because now that you can get 2-3% relatively short term CD rate people are thinking about them again. Some of you are older than me I think, but I recall my grandparents giving me long term CDs as a young child with double digit yields. But when yields have been below 1% for so long recently it looks attractive now.

Through the years I have actually been selling most of my mutual funds and buying more municipal bonds, you know me something about me not wanting to invest in multi-national corporations and all, I'd rather invest in communities over corporations mostly. Selling like 1% a month for a while, feels better selling into a growing market than a receding one! I still buy stocks, mostly REITS or energy or domestic service sector related companies. But look out, CDs are on the way back haha! Not quite, but another option for a change.


sckeys - 8/6/2018 at 01:39 PM

I wonder what rising rates will do to munis? They will hit dividend stocks for sure. I miss the old EE savings bonds. Like CDs the yield went to dust.


Muleman1994 - 8/6/2018 at 02:23 PM

CDs. municipals and savings bonds?

The world has evolved past poor investing ideology.


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